Empire Manufacturing: Flattish

Posted 2011-11-15 09:16
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers held steady in November. After a string of five consecutive months of negative readings, the general business conditions index rose nine points, to 0.6. While the new orders index edged down to -2.1, indicating that orders were a little lower, the shipments index rose to 9.4, indicating an increase in shipments. The inventories index fell to -12.2—a sign that inventory levels dropped. The prices paid index continued to move downward, reaching 18.3, its lowest level in nearly two years; the decline suggested that the pace of input price increases slowed further in November. The prices received index rose slightly, to 6.1, evidence that selling prices continued to increase. Employment indexes were mixed: employment levels were slightly lower and the average workweek slightly longer. Future indexes surged, indicating a widespread expectation that conditions would improve in the months ahead, with the future general business conditions index rising to its highest level since May.

Future expectations are definitely on the rise. I don't know how realistic it is given what we're seeing in the PPI report related to primary metals, but it is what it is.

This much is clear however: Employers may be saying they expect better conditions, but they're not hiring in expectation of them.

At least not yet.

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