Non-Farm Payrolls 6/4: OUCH
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2010-06-04 08:57 by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors Ignore this thread
Non-Farm Payrolls 6/4: OUCH

"I told you so"

Total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 431,000 in May, reflecting the hiring of 411,000 temporary employees to work on Census 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Private-sector employment changed little (+41,000).

So much for the "strong" (+200,000) private sector job growth that everyone was expecting.

The futures reaction was instantaneous and violent - southbound.

There has never been a so-called "V-shaped" recovery where we only managed to add 40,000 jobs.  Oh, and of that "+40,000" about five times as many were fictional jobs created by the "birth-death" model in the establishment survey.  I ignore that survey in my tracking for the simple reason that the government can (and does) basically add whatever it wants to print in their "black box" and proves up nothing on it - nor does it expose its methodology.

Instead I use the household survey, and once again present my two "tracking graphs":

The annualized number continues to show improvement but has failed to cross zero and the monthly change is barely positive.  Given that Census hiring has peaked and we will in the coming months see Census layoffs this is bad news.

What's worse is here:

Eek.  After several months of improvement in the "not in labor force" number, showing that people were re-entering the labor force seeking jobs, this month showed new deterioration in that leading indicator of hiring.

That is, we once again have more people leaving the workforce despite May being one of the two months that typically record big gains in the labor force due to graduation of both High Schools and Colleges, and the "forward expectations" of "about to be new graduates" entering the workforce.

This is an insanely weak report all things considered, and is entirely out of character with the claim of a "V" shaped recovery, or alternatively, a claim that the "stock crash" in 2008 and 2009 was reflective not of weakness in the underlying economy but rather a "pure financial panic."

This report ought to stuff a rag in the mouths of those who have been running that crap.  The fact of the matter is that there has been no meaningful turn in the employment situation and in the coming months you're going to see those 400,000 Census Jobs go back into the ranks of the unemployed.

With policy capacity to intervene essentially exhausted it will soon become evident to the "talking heads" that all we did by refusing to admit to the insane amount of overcapacity in the economy and the outright fraud served up by our "financial institutions" was to blow somewhere north of $3 trillion attempting to reinflate a popped balloon, meaning that we no longer have effective policy tools to deal with the underlying rot that we refused to excise, and as such we are now consigned to live with the consequences - and they won't be pretty.

Buckle up folks, the road ahead is quite rough.