Does anyone remember my ranting at Paulson when he was talking about his "Bazooka"? Here is what I said:
This joins the list of other "dead wrong" statements you've made, of which I am keeping a running copy and sent them around on the 19th of July.
How many times do you get to be wrong as Treasury Secretary Hank before you resign in shame?
And now I must ask again - is that really a Bazooka in your pocket, or an empty launcher? I'm not the only one that's curious you know; the bond market seems to think it smells like BS, and so does the stock market.
Fannie and Freddie collapsed, remember?
Paulson was proved - and rather quickly so - to be completely full of crap.
Bernanke's comments today may have just provoked a dollar catastrophe - a collapse move that may have just begun. Witness this chart:
The market took about 10 minutes to discern that Bernanke's "concern" was BS, and now has pushed in the chips - "all in" - breaking key support below 75 - and still going.
The carry traders have redoubled their bets and obviously intend to force Bernanke to either put up or shut up.
The problem with Paulson's claim is that when the market called the bluff he wound up sticking the taxpayer for up to $400 billion, of which more than $100 billion has now been dissipated.
It appears the FX market intends to force Bernanke (and Geithner) to either defend the dollar or allow it to collapse. The violence of this move and the concurrent "ramp job" that accompanied it in the S&P 500 makes clear a few points though.
- The "efficiency" of transmission between this move down and the move up in the stock market is lower than the previous moves have been, although the correlation remains intact.
- The FX markets will press this bet incessantly as they did when Geithner last mouthed the "strong dollar" mantra.
The Fannie and Freddie game wound up bankrupting both firms and forcing the government to bail them out.
Who is going to bail out the United States Government if and when the FX markets and carry traders cause a disorderly collapse in the dollar?
Just as with Paulson's idiocy I'll bet not one person in Congress or The Administration will stand up and put a sock in Bernanke, despite the fact that we are again seeing the "ALL IN!" game when the person doing it is holding 2-7 off-suit.
But this post, if Bernanke has indeed provoked a collapse of the dollar, is one I will be printing as a full-page advertisement in USA Today - if there still is a USA Today, or for that matter any other national newspaper to which one can freely insert material, in a couple of years.