"Our Tier 1 Ratio Is Strong!"
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2009-02-27 20:48
by Karl Denninger
 

Yeah, but your balance sheet is full of lies.

Reported this afternoon:

Citibank: Carrying loans on book at $660.9 billion; 10K filed today discloses that "fair value" is $642.7 billion - a "discrepancy" of $18.2 billion dollars.

Bank America: Carrying loans on book at $886.2 billion; "fair value" of $841.6 billion, a shortfall of $44 billion.

Wells Fargo: Carrying on book at $843.8 billion; "fair value" of $829.6 billion, a discrepancy of $14 billion.

This is all off 10Ks filed this afternoon - after the market closed - and referring to earnings reported during the last quarter's releases.

Maybe someone can tell me why:

  1. You can "report earnings" and not include this in the release, when it is a very material piece of information, thereby making your company look like it made more (or lost less) than it actually did.
  2. You can then "amend" your report in the 10Ks, thereby "copping" to your original lie.
  3. And I suppose you're going to tell me that there was no inside information being traded on today too, right?

Folks, we are sitting this evening below critical support levels.  This sort of "tape bomb" is exactly the sort of thing that can crash a market in this condition and it is exactly what I was talking about last night in my speech - the fact that our capital markets have become nothing other than a liars den where the fabrication of the day is trotted out, thereby making it absolutely impossible for any investor to value companies.

I see no way to invest in this environment and it is not possible to hold a trade beyond the closing bell either. 

As for you President Obama and your claim of a "transparent administration" and "honesty", well, I allege that you're lying through your teeth.

Let me explain how serious this situation in the markets is.

A huge number of big multinational companies - firms that have so far held up reasonably well in the indices (and in fact are all that is holding up the indices) have tremendous unfunded pension obligations on their books.

These firms have in many cases seen half of their net equity value destroyed due to MTM losses on these funds.  These liabilities can only be discharged through a bankruptcy (transferring them to the PBGC), and yet that would wipe out their common stockholders.

Now here is your exercise for the weekend:

Take the large-cap companies that have held up "reasonably well" thus far and also are "legacy" firms - that is, firms that have been around for a long time and thus have pension obligations on their books.

Zero the stock price of 30-50% of those.

Now compute what that does to the index they are in.

Make sure you're sitting down when you do this computation.

President Obama and the rest of the clown-car brigade in Washington DC - you have until Sunday Night when the Asian Markets open before this last charade likely translates over into those markets. 

If that happens, and Europe has another day like it did today, the odds are we will open down so far off the support levels that were breached today that we will simply have no bid in large parts of the market - quite possibly including Treasuries and equities.

You own it Barack, along with the insane ramp in unemployment that will result. 

Oh, and the GDP revision (which you knew about I'm sure) is already worse than the "stress test" you intend to impose; you are already running under too rosy of a scenario.

You've played smarmy politician one too many times Mr. President.

Good luck.

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