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(The Year 2012 In Review)
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|User Info||More Yellow Weeds: Chicago PMI; entered at 2009-05-29 13:22:58|
I tire of the media's and other hacks cheering because second-derivative numbers are "improving" - i.e. becoming less bad. Half the worlds wealth evaporated (~$110 trillion down to ~$60 trillion). Of course second-derivatives are going to slow down, there is less to destroy.|
Kind of like watching a house burn - just because the house is burning slower doesn't mean that the state of the house is improving. It's only being destroyed slower because there is less fuel to burn. The end result is still a gutted house.
Why is there the assumption that there will be a recovery at all (V, U, or otherwise)? There are countless examples where countries and civilizations merely collapsed and never improved (or not very much anyway).
I worked at a company in the 80's that ran into big revenue trouble from several very poor decisions at the top. THe company had massive layoffs over several years (3500 to 1000) and to this day is still at 1000 employess. It never recovered back to its golden days.
I see no indication (especially after reading these Tickers over the past six months) that the US will have any recovery at all (and maybe never again).