I want heads.
The "climate screaming" garbage is once-again screwing people -- specifically, hurricane Helene.
That was not a Cat 4 at landfall. There were chasers on the air live that went through the eyewall at Perry, which is a bit more than 10 miles from the coast. I know exactly where they were as I've been there. I watched them live while at the same time having a live radar view up as the eyewall went over them.
They were standing unassisted in the alleged "130mph winds" a few minutes before the eye got to them.
Further both before and after the trees were all still up and so were business signs. Yes, there was a very-dramatic video of a shed that blew across a road. It appeared to be one that was for sale at a hardware store or similar that was unanchored and of course has nothing in it for ballast; it got blown around as would be expected in winds of 70mph or so.
By the way the cops were still out (with their lights on) and they don't stay out in those sorts of winds because none of those departments want to lose their people or cop cars from flying debris -- so when it really gets going they call all the cops back to their nests and if you need 'em -- well, too damn bad they'll come when its over.
Surge was, as expected, pretty nasty. If your residence or business is 5' off the water and the predicted surge is 8' you might think you're going to maybe take 3' of water. Nope; you are going to take 3' of water plus whatever the waves are on top of that, and if the wind is blowing 70mph and you have a bunch of open fetch (miles) over which it blows you'll get another 3-5' of waves on top and by the way water in size like that will smash through structures. Interestingly enough in Steinhatchee, which took the surge and was a near-direct hit on the coast there were plenty of places that were built with basically no freeboard and were dismounted and thrown around -- but all their roofs were still on and so were the walls!
You can mitigate the wave action (e.g. with a kneewall or similar) but not the flooding; if whatever you have gets overtopped the water is coming in. That's how it works. The people who built fish camps and similar there -- and on Mexico Beach -- decades ago knew this and were fully aware of the risk -- that they'd get destroyed when, not if, the storm comes. Thus what they built had little value and was easily replaced. Then people show up and start bidding the existing places up and putting $500,000 structures there which is fucking stupid and of course they get destroyed.
Muh climate change! No, you are a fucking lunatic and hate money. I know you want to make that my problem but it isn't and if you don't cut that shit out and accept the consequences of your own actions I'll feed your ass to an alligator -- ass-end first, so you can enjoy being consumed before you die.
How about Tampa? The claims of "unprecedented surge" are lies. Tampa has a roughly 2-2-1/2' tidal range and all these lying pieces of shit were taking the peak surge numbers off MLLW -- that is, mean LOWER LOW water or the unusual (but not unprecedented) LOW TIDE LEVEL. The claims were that the 6'ish surge was "unprecedented", which it isn't -- Tampa hasn't taken any sort of real hit in roughly 100 years and its simply due to the way the coastline lies there and that a storm has to come in just north of or directly up into the inlet to screw the town with flooding. If it comes in south so the bay is on the outflow side it sucks the water out instead of ramming it in. But 100ish years ago exactly that happened and it of course has before, but all of this was before air conditioning and few people wanted to live there before there was air conditioning, especially in the summer and early fall months because its hotter than Hell.
Take 2-2-1/2' off the "breathless" reported figures, by the way, and you have a 4' elevation of the water level above the expected and ordinary, every-day high tide level. If you are stupid enough to put something of value below that and which cannot withstand being inundated on the bay you deserve what you get.
But probably the most offensive was the ridiculously widespread claims of threat inland. Scream too many times and nobody listens when they should. For example the local news here claimed we were going to get 8" or more of precip and hurricane force winds. Bullshit. We did get a decent storm in front of the hurricane (which had nothing to do with it; it was a bog-standard cold front) with a few inches of rain but that had nothing to do with Helene. There was no deluge and no hurricane-force winds exactly as I explained to the people in a bar a couple of nights ago would not happen -- and why. Simply put we have a mountain range between the storm that was coming and us; not only will that lift the air (which then condenses as it cools) but the windfield had zero odds of being at hurricane force by the time it got here.
The problem was that there really was a risk on the southern side of that mountain range and up toward Unicoi (and further NE where you're on the INCOMING side of the storm) for very high rainfall amounts which did materialize. Helene was very fast-moving, which isn't that unusual but most of the time tropical systems cross Florida and exit off the East coast. This one went north right up into the mountain range here -- and was forecast to do so because the front that preceded it getting here was forecast to lift out and leave a cut-off low behind -- and it did. The area around Asheville got pounded but here, once again when it comes to the results human stupidity was and is largely involved. If you look at the land around the French Broad River it is very clear that there is a large floodplain associated with it. How the hell do you think it got there? Do you think the Biltmore was put on the top of the hill because the owners were stupid or do you think they knew damn well that putting it right down on the river would result in it being flooded and severely damaged when, not if, the river blew its banks due to heavy rainfall up in the nearby mountains which does happen from time to time? Oh by the way the river arts district, which flooded badly, was abandoned by the former industrial users and thus was taken over by the artsy folks because..... it flooded. Duh.
I mean, I get it -- building right on an inland river in a mountainous area's valley is pretty. Where the hell do you think the water that falls on the mountain is going to wind up? Answer: If there is enough of it all that rain will come right through your living room, and there's a crap ton of both commercial and residential structures in said areas in Asheville and this region generally.
No, this is not "unprecedented"; if you think it is you can't be bothered to look at the terrain which is clearly a floodplain. Why do we call it a floodplain? Because it floods. I know, I know, it hasn't in a long time but if you have even just one working eyeball the risk is obvious on casual observation.
Every single person with an IQ larger than FIVE has seen a downspout off a roof during a heavy rainstorm. On the ground in the area, its wet and you're getting rained on. Coming out of the downspout is a deluge. How does a mountain compare in size to your roof and by the way scale it up in your head and then come talk to me about that river in the valley.
Should we regularly and with a straight-face focus on the real places where high risk is when a storm approaches? You bet. The land in front of a mountain range where a storm is headed toward is going to get the bulk of the moisture; you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand why -- just go hike the mountain, realize that it is cooler up there than at the bottom and as air cools the water carried as vapor condenses and it rains. In addition if you have rivers, streams and areas that clearly were the runoff path below a mountain, and you usually do, where do you expect the water that falls on said mountain to end up? This was no exception and reality is that those who build high-value structures on flood plains and adjacent to streams and rivers in a mountain valley should expect them to get flooded. When Sarah and I were out west and came across the Teton Pass I saw an utterly insane display of that stupidity next to the river on the Idaho side; the number of people who built in what was very clearly a first-level flood plain (with a second bank above the house!) was astounding. Most of these structures were quite-new and very expensive. I highly doubt a single one of them could be bought for under $1m. Dumb; when the water comes up, and it will, every single one of them is going to flood and by the way that's in the valley of the west side of the mountain range there and weather tends to travel from the south and west in the United States.
We do serious damage to public confidence when we scream about things that are just flat-out crap particularly when we dilute focus from where attention should be placed, which in this case means two things: Surge and facing-the-storm areas of mountains specifically the valleys under them where all the water is going to run when an incoming storm gets lifted, cools and the water condenses out as rain. Helene was a hurricane, that's for sure. But there sure as hell were not sustained 100+mph winds at Perry. No way, no how, period. I don't give a crap what some jackass claims they measured with a dropsonde; all that matters to people is the wind on the ground and this was in no way a Cat 4 storm -- not even close.
We spent all of our breathless screaming over bullshit while ignoring the very real issue that was about hit people in the face. Yeah, there were warnings but if you scream about the entire world when the real risk is in one or two places you get ignored by everyone and then people get seriously screwed or die.
I went through Ivan at my house in Niceville. That was the real deal and I know damn well what that sort of windfield looks like on the ground because I went through it and, in the middle of it, went out the back garage door in the lee of the building to shut down the outside breaker panel after power was lost to protect against possible shorts that might be present when power came back up. I foolishly stuck my head (wearing a dive mask for protection of my eyes) around the corner after doing so and but for being quick-handed that mask would have wound up somewhere in Alabama. There is no way what came in at Perry was anywhere near that and I'm tired of the breathless screaming from climate alarmists who bullshit their way through every single fucking storm that shows up and tells us all that its "unprecedented" when those of us who have gone through these damned things, and I did so for 20 years, know they're full of shit and would like to see them all fed to alligators or sharks to shut them the fuck up.
And yes, I bought my place in FL knowing the risk and accepting it. Part of my selection criteria was the specifics of that structure and where it was to attempt to mitigate said risk. I was successful in doing so; many others who made somewhat different choices were not. Had I failed that would have been nobody else's fault or responsibility -- it would have been mine. When I moved here I made similar observations and choices. In other words it was my responsibility both times for either good or bad, not some imaginary "insult" that I lay off on my next door neighbor driving an SUV.
Finally, as to Asheville and the rest of Western NC and its infrastructure -- particularly communications. Who the fuck put the data concentration points, necessary for any of today's Internet (on which all cellular communications rides today) where they can flood? I'll tell you who -- idiots. Second, if I hear one more person telling me that we must de-carbonize I'm going to rip their head off right there and shit down their neck. Every single bucket truck now heading there to fix things runs on diesel. So do all the rest of the earth-moving gear to rebuild the roads and all the chainsaws run on gas. Oh by the way one of the reasons the cell towers are down is that they have no power and of course that area is full of people who "hate oil" -- well, how would you like a nice diesel backup generator at the tower right about now? And while you're at it find the assholes who put the switch infrastructure and repeaters for the fiber in the area where they can flood and who also bitched about having big enough backup generators and their fuel supply because that isn't "green" and thus they have neither, said facilities have no long-duration backup power and you have no communications. String every one of those blue-haired idiots up once you get done clearing the roads and restoring power.
Oh, and if you prefer a video rant -- here's a drunken podcast!