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 Who Remembers February 2007?
Tickerguy 202k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2024-02-06 12:04:37

Yes, and then they doubled down on stupid @Quantum -- for several YEARS after 2008.

Well, time's up on that.

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"Perhaps you can keep things together and advance playing DIE games.
Or perhaps the truth is that white men w/IQs >= 115 or so built all of it and without us it will collapse."
Flappingeagle 5k posts, incept 2011-04-14
2024-02-06 12:13:12

I was just about to write that.

What were the "teaser rates" in your 2007 article turned out to be close to the actual rates of the last 12 to 14 years! Think of that. Everything financed at what amounts to a "teaser rate".

How's that gonna work with anything near a normal rate?

I thought so,

Flap

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2024. One of Trump or Biden will not be on the ballot in November.
A housing crash will occur.
Interest rates will NOT be lowered more than 1% in total unless a housing crash occurs.
Chemman 482 posts, incept 2021-05-03
2024-02-06 12:32:39

@Rooster: 800 billion not million and thanks to the baseline budgeting act of 1978 most of that bail out has stayed in the annual CR's since then.
Printlife 328 posts, incept 2018-05-22
2024-02-06 12:32:45

@Flapping Are you saying interest should be higher than inflation? To induce the owner to lend the money. Guess we better keep the most indebted entity away from the levers that can manipulate the reported rate of inflation. Too late, you say?

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Vaccination required? Not if we leave.
Now in Florida, heart rate dropping, nicer people
Aquapura 4k posts, incept 2012-04-19
2024-02-06 12:44:07

I hadn't discovered the Market-Ticker in 2007....sure wish I had. Didn't have an Alt-A back then but was mostly clueless to the shit storm that hit soon after. Today I'm much more prepared for the pain that is coming, but I'm also 17 years older.
Invisiblesun 884 posts, incept 2020-04-08
2024-02-06 13:19:26

@Jdough is correct. When the SHTF retail stores are going to be ransacked. We already see this in SanFran and DC and other urban areas where criminals are celebrated.

I am not a big "Prepper" but there is one reason to stock up - the store shelves will be empty and even delivery will become hit or miss.

I can see a day not far off when Costco will hire armed guards. I can see a day when civilians will establish checkpoints to protect the stores they have from the criminal gangs. Because the alternative will be to lose those stores as the government is fully in bed with the criminals and will do nothing to prosecute crime.
Rollformer 3k posts, incept 2013-02-13
2024-02-06 13:32:55

I remember the scariest day I had in the financial crisis. I was working at a joint venture of two public companies. CFO comes to me, "Roll, how much cash do we have?"

"$x million"

"How much availability is there on the credit line?"

"$y million"

"We are paying a dividend today. Put that in your earnings forecast."

"How much is the dividend?"

"All of it."

Cash balance and available credit both went to zero. We were bailing someone out, but I don't know who made the request. It was a real "Oh shit" moment for sure.
Realist 365 posts, incept 2009-07-14
2024-02-06 13:33:05


@Tickerguy wrote:

Quote:
Indeed I think its a fair assessment that virtually everything wrong with our business, economic policy and society today can be traced to the willful and intentional refusal to bring these charges and prosecute ... and worse ...there is no political solution to be found at the voting booth.



Lack of enforcement of existing laws

Selective enforcement of existing laws

Enforcement of ''laws'' that exist only by government proclamation that were not properly passed by a Legislature

Failure of the legal system to honor Constitutional Rights

Failure of the courts to uphold The Rule of Law

The country is unwilling or unable to correct the lawlessness and corruption.



When these acts occur, they are the very definition of a lawless country. This is a major reason why you are seeing the tyranny and chaos in the U.S.


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''Whenever law ends, tyranny begins'' -- John Locke, English Philosopher
The United States is a banana republic
Survivors use critical thinking, common sense and intuition
Taint2 7 posts, incept 2023-11-07
2024-02-06 13:55:19

the slow boil in the south china sea and the red sea...doesn't feel so much like 2007 but more like 1937. Personal view, is if SHTF financially, S really cooks off in Asia. The slow boil is there as a useful distraction.
Theswiss 9 posts, incept 2023-05-12
2024-02-06 13:55:25

Quote:
I am not a big "Prepper" but there is one reason to stock up - the store shelves will be empty and even delivery will become hit or miss.

In certain stores in Europe this is happening right now in grocery stores, the blockades by farmers and truckers start to show their effect.
Eoinw 201 posts, incept 2021-07-14
2024-02-06 13:55:32

I remember, just after the turn of the century, the Enron scandal. Seems like prehistoric times when a company was actually punished for illegal activities. I often wonder how many Enron/Arthur Anderson shenanigans are taking place and being covered up.

A poster mentioned illegal aliens not obeying the law. We've a much bigger problem then that because the political class and justice system no longer respect the law. Even the Supreme Court plays loose with the Constitution!
Makes predicting what comes next quite a challenge.

The end of rule of law puts all of western society on very thin ice.
Rooster 83 posts, incept 2020-04-13
2024-02-06 13:55:36

@ Chemman... You're correct it was $800 Billion, not million it was a typo on my part thanks for pointing that out!

What's crazy is that 1 trillion is between just 2 property developers and doesn't include the other developers, banks and municipalities all of which are also involved in China's real estate collapse!
Ingar 765 posts, incept 2017-02-14
2024-02-06 14:46:05

I spoke with a lending officer at a local bank in 2006 and she told about a lot of people getting 2nd mortgages then to make a payment on their maxed-out credit cards. I believe that credit card debt is at an all time high now. When things blow up a lot of people are going to find out the hard way what happens when you live beyond your means. Bankruptcy courts are going to be busy.
Invisiblesun 884 posts, incept 2020-04-08
2024-02-06 14:46:15

@Eoinw

IIRC, Enron's primary crime was playing both sides of the market and sticking the "customer" with the loss. This seems to be standard business practice now, especially in Health Care, Insurance and Finance.
Jacksparrow 302 posts, incept 2016-04-15
2024-02-06 14:46:22

Well,I do have a couple SPY Mar 2025 495 Puts. Big lottery tickets.
Crossthread 14k posts, incept 2007-09-04
2024-02-06 14:46:39

All We are lacking now,, is the (someone) conducting a *Bin Laden Trade*, stock market bet..

Quote:
It's Probably Not Another "Bin Laden Trade," But This Massive Mystery Options Play Hints at a Bearish End to 2007..
In September 2007, there was a $900 million options wager that became known as the "Bin Laden Mystery Trade." Widely believed to be a massive downside bet on the S&P 500, it was a combination of options totaling 120,000 S&P call options contracts (NYSE: SPY).


WE ARE WAITING.. smiley

https://moneymorning.com/2009/08/12/opti....
Historical Recap..

https://money.cnn.com/2007/02/27/markets....

Everything is flashing, CAUTION! or, RED & STOP!,, yet, the government/FED, has the Gas hammered,, like Ross Chastain In the last lap @Martinsville..

NOT shilling for that person in the video,, Just a example.. (look at the #'s), WHERE We should be RIGHT NOW..
RE: DOW @ 11,500 & the S&P at.. 1062.** & change..




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Everyone of us are ignorant, its just we specialize our ignorance on different subjects.

The only walls that will confine you are the ones that you build yourself

Mannfm11 9k posts, incept 2009-02-28
2024-02-06 15:39:19

Mass inflation is always followed by trouble. There are so many coins in the Chinese fusebox, they have run out of them. I suspect Biden and company are indirectly trying to bail them out, by mass spending and importation of more demand.

Credit Bubble Bulletin post wrote..
January 29 Financial Times (Joe Leahy, James Kynge and Sun Yu): In a speech that delivered Chinas assessment of world trade conditions in 2024, commerce minister Wang Wentao last week warned the environment is poor. Rising trade protectionism and intensified geopolitical conflicts were among the main challenges, he told reporters But in Chinas favour, he reassured his audience, were record exports from its new three industries: electric vehicles, solar energy products and lithium batteries But for its developed country trading partners, the prospect of Chinas low-cost imports flooding their markets and wiping out jobs in important industries such as the automotive sector and solar and wind power is prompting growing alarm.


February 1 Bloomberg: China pledged to keep spending this year despite a property market slump weighing on key government revenue sources, raising hopes that fiscal expansion can provide more support for a slowing economy. Fiscal spending in 2024 will be maintained at a necessary intensity, Ministry of Finance officials said. Hours later, data showed that Beijing withdrew stimulus last year, with 2023s overall deficit at 8.84 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion).

January 29 Financial Times (Thomas Hale and Kaye Wiggins): When Hong Kong judge Linda Chan ordered China Evergrande into liquidation, she opened a critical new phase in the slow-motion collapse of the worlds most indebted property developer and set up a high-profile test of the reach of the former British colonys courts Almost all of the companys homebuilding activity takes place in the Chinese mainland, where most of its more than $300bn in liabilities are also owed and a property slowdown has become one of the governments most pressing challenges It definitely wont be straightforward to get money out of mainland China, said Nigel Trayers, a restructuring and insolvency specialist at Grant Thornton in Hong Kong. Its fairly clear that the priority is delivering properties that have been sold.

January 31 Bloomberg (Felix Tam): Evergrandes winding-up will highlight the arduous task of liquidation of a large corporate, and reset expectations about recovery rates on defaulted Chinese speculative-grade bonds in the offshore market, S&P says We assume offshore bondholders will get a few cents on the dollar once the liquidation plays out. Moreover, they will likely yet have to wait years even for this thin payout, China corporates specialist Chang Li says.

January 30 Bloomberg (Patrick Clark and Anna J Kaiser): Billionaire Barry Sternlicht sees more than $1 trillion of losses for office real estate, calling the properties one asset class that never recovered from the pandemic. The office market has an existential crisis right now, which is largely a US phenomenon because workers havent gone back to their desks, Sternlicht said Once a $3 trillion asset class, offices now are probably worth $1.8 trillion, said Sternlicht, chief executive officer of Starwood Capital Group. Theres $1.2 trillion of losses spread somewhere, and nobody knows exactly where it all is.

January 31 Reuters (Tom Westbrook): Chinas major state-owned banks were heavy sellers of dollars on Wednesday, steadying the yuan as it came under pressure in currency trade as the economy remains shaky. State banks often act on behalf of China's central bank in the foreign exchange market, but they could also trade on their own behalf or execute clients' orders. One of the people said the selling was very forceful to defend the yuan at around 7.1820 per dollar in the onshore spot market.

Doug's commebt

Significant firepower is being expended to support Chinas vulnerable currency. Yet the renminbi declined 0.22% (offshore down 0.36%) this week to trade near the low back to mid-November. Its worth noting that most of the weeks loss came in post-payrolls Friday trading. The vulnerable Japanese yen was hit 1.31% Friday.


https://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.co....

The Credit Bubble Bulletin is a must read in times like these.

The losses are huge. These companies have massive debts and also large domestic liabilities to build homes already paid. Evergrande is just 1. There is another with the name Gardens in it that is also insolvent. Chinese have their life savings in a mass quantity of empty apartments and will end up with next to nothing. A source was quoted in a former article they could house the entire population with the empty housing in the country. This went on 8 to 10 years too long and now population demographics have turned down, to boot. A lot of this money is domestic, like American. There will be no GSE bailout.

The impact of a massive international industry like Chinese real estate is massive. There will ne some building in localities, but the mass demand for materials sourced around the world will ease significantly. These are the root of all demand, along with agriculture, as minerals and food all flow upward.

China is frantically trying to prop their currency. Contrary to popular belief, their finances rest on the dollar. Hong Kong is the only place there where there is any symbolence of Western standards and the CCP has taken over there. Story out there is China is selling treasuries. They are propping their money, spending dollars. China has gotten way over its skis.

It isn't just medicine that has been cartelized in the US. It is just the most costly. Medicine and tech run our government. Tech doesn't need to be told to censor us. They tell the government to tell them. They are the core to totalitarianism. Are we being blackmailed by the globalists under the Climate Fraud, to keep China afloat?

Then lets look at the biggest monopolies, governments. Governments and bankers make most monopolies possible. Story about Rockefeller and Std oil. Std oil was really into refining, not oil production. JD Rockefeller got his start with a still to refine his own Kerosene, for sale in his stores. As he got bigger, he bought out is competitors, just like we see widespread today. People would build refineries, knowing Std would bid for them and give a profit. It kept supply of products up. Anti trust against Std was political, done by Morgan agent T. Roosevelt. In return Rockefeller agent, Taft broke up US Steel.

Who is going to stand against tech and medicine? I watched that Tucker interview Karl linked the other night. Poisoning people for profit. I don't think Tucker was surprised by the news the news was owned by pharma. I think he was actually highlighting it, for the listeners. It has come out, by an expert that Google was worth something like 7 million votes for Hillary, just by the way they linked information. Zuckerberg made what was already a big fraud program massive in 2020. Under 60% of people vote and making another 2/3 of that number available for fraud was massive. These people can make a saint of the devil and Jesus into Lucifer. The problem is just as big there as Medicine and these people have created the mechanism of mass control. You do have a right to not use the medical system to its fullest extent, so far. Getting out of the tech web just might not be a choice.

I never knew what managed care was. Drugs. In the end, that is all it is. The idea medicine has gone from 5% GDP to over 20% tells me 1 thing. We are missing 15% somewhere, because in reality, it has been a net zero. Either the rest of the economy has shrunk 75% or there is some faulty accounting.

In sum, big problems are coming. The biggest is war. The left is bankrupting us and cenetering more power in DC, where over 90% of the population is left. A Republican can't be allowed to have a conservative administration today. The 5% have to hide. Look at the attack on the USSC. The legal system has been destroyed around DC. Tech and Medicine are tools of the left. SEIU has big membership in the hospital networks and they have their own thugs. Then we have education. These are all Cartels. There is no law in DC.

Then we have the current US budget deficit. The money is propping the stock market. We are at full rmployment, a time when dificits should be at a minimum, like $1 trillion or less. They have let the genie out of the bag. The Fed might cut for no other reason but to stop the dollar melt up. I don't think we will ever see 2% treasuries of 10 year or more duration in my lifetime and it is clear Japan needs to end its fiasco. The Nikkei finally made back its losses from 1990, 34 years. I wonder how various pensions would look under that kind of strain. Liability service could consume all income at some point, leaving current producers with nothing. We know that is slavery and won't happen. Watch your Chickens.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Jacksparrow 302 posts, incept 2016-04-15
2024-02-06 15:39:40

Oh, one other thought. In the summer of 2007 I was trading options when Bear Sterns imploded. It was option expiration and the news had me down $32K for the morning. The Bernak came out and said it was all contained. When I was only down $22k to $24K (I don't remember the exact amount) I closed those trades. At the time, my source of news was almost exclusively the WSJ. They had nothing of the melt down coming at the time. It took me until the end of 2007 to earn back the loss. I then found zerohedge and this blog. The real collapse came later, and I was out of it's way. What I didn't get was the power of the printing press and how they would paper over too much debt with more debt. So I missed a lot of the run up to the current insanity level. Although I did make a ton when Covid hit.

I wonder if the 1 Quadtrillion in swaps and derivatives will explode this time and the public learn about their stock holdings only being unsecured creditor claims and how they will own nothing and be happy?

Yolofafo 27 posts, incept 2023-09-02
2024-02-06 16:00:30

Ahh Countrywide, what a memory, particularly the large losses I incurred from them going under. Same for New Century and other subprime servicing companies I had back then because of the very high dividends. Reading Karl's article from 17 years ago helps bring back my awakening to how much CNBC, MSN Money, WSJ, newspapers, stock ticker sites, and everything else did not tell me about back then. Education is expensive when your stock symbols suddenly have a 'Q' added to them meaning bankruptcy.

Had a HELOC back then with a TBTF bank, paid it down then shut it down to clear my title. The loan officer was aghast at the time, no one closes a HELOC. I knew they were TBTF even before 2008, wanted to get away from them entirely.

What's interesting is that during my "education" no alt news site I started reading back then led me to market-ticker. Agora Financial, ShadowStats, lots of others I started reading every day, but not here. That's too bad, this is a far better place to be.
Erroldo 692 posts, incept 2013-09-12
2024-02-06 16:00:52

I remembered 2007 allright.
And in 2024, what am I seeing already?
Parabolas extending.
Look at NVDA, SMIC and most stocks that mentions AI. Parabolas.
When we styart seeing stock up 5x to 10x their recent lows(2021-2022), a major collapse usually happens. and not just stocks.
SOXL is just 5x off the low, so maybe there is another 20 to 50% up left in some of these names. The light bulbs are starting to flicker if you care to look.
Be safe with your assets.
Europeasant 58 posts, incept 2011-07-03
2024-02-06 16:40:14

@jacksparrow

"So I missed a lot of the run up to the current insanity level. Although I did make a ton when Covid hit"

Same here. I made about $70,000 when Covid hit. I got out soon after because I thought the Covid market downturn was just temporary. I got cold feet.

BTW the real estate prices since Covid are insane. In my area it is unreal just how many apartment/condo units are being built. Itz like someone is expecting a population increase. But of course this is offset by how many houses, apartment buildings are already destroyed and being destroyed in certain parts of the city .
Emupaul 199 posts, incept 2013-04-17
2024-02-06 18:20:58

I remember the Dotcom fun. We went from almost 100 grand a year in income to 20 grand. Yes, we were stupid and had too many credit cards.

The CC folks just made it worse.

$15 late payment fee, get a couple of those and your monthly late fee goes up and the interest rate goes from 10 or 13 percent to around 28 percent. So, your happy credit card that had a $6000 balance is now $23,000 a few months later and then pushing 40 grand in a year. Times six or seven. Yeah, we were stupid, I already said that.

I remember a call from a CC collector. "You need to make a payment right now!". Yeah, you're right but I gotta buy groceries because kids gotta eat and then pay the electric bill and the note on the house. That you have more than doubled the interest rate and you keep slapping on late fees, yeah, I don't have the money to send you $1200. "Get another job!" was met with me saying "fuck you and the people you work for."

The "sell your car" line was funny. I was driving a '78 Volare wagon that I paid all of $1000 for and I'm going to sell it for what? And then walk five miles to work?

So. Not proud of it at all. Did the bankrupt thing. That didn't stop all of the bill collectors. But they finally quit a couple of years ago.

The 2008 stuff didn't bother us, we were already fucked up and still digging out.

What's coming? Oh, yeah, baby, it's not gonna be SHTF, it's gonna be Elephant turds spraying chunky mist out of a jet engine.


Emupaul 199 posts, incept 2013-04-17
2024-02-06 18:22:00

I just had another thought. I might be wrong.

You owe the CC company and are making payments. They add the interest onto your daily balance every day.

The bank owes you money, a savings account. They add the interest on quarterly.

A bit of difference there.

Compound Interest is a bitch.
Tonythetiger 1k posts, incept 2019-01-27
2024-02-06 18:42:12


A not-so-pleasant reminder of what's coming soon (again). I remember the day that the "Countrywide might go bankrupt" news broke. The next day I sold everything and waited while I watched the S&P 500 carefully.

The day after it broke down in strength below the most recent 'higher low' point I scooped up some LEAP Puts on SPY and hunkered down.

Things were going according to plan until the day that the .gov used $700 Billion to bail out the banksters in late September 2008 and the market rebounded.

I closed out my Puts for around $75,000 or so. A clear triple. I'd have done a LOT better if I'd held on another 6 months, but it was clear that one couldn't rely on the .gov not stepping in unexpectedly to erase my profits.

No plans to try the same thing now. There's no way any sort of market crash will go without somebody turning on the money printer ("brrrrrrrrrr") again.

Hunker down. There might be some really good bargains to be had once the dust settles. Buying profitable businesses near the bottom is a really good strategy over the long run. Find the ones who are still paying a double digit yield with excess cash flow and hang on while it rebounds over the next few decades.

Of course that assumes we aren't all armpit deep in lily pads first. (If memory serves, there used to be a pond here ...)











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"War is when the Government tells you who the bad guy is. Revolution is when you decide that for yourself." - Benjamin Franklin

You can vote your way into Communism, but you have to
Mikeyjm2 235 posts, incept 2011-10-20
2024-02-06 19:03:17

I was relatively late signing on here compared to some of y'all. I think I was steered here by @Smacktle originally. Coincidentally, I paid off my mortgage about the same time I created my account here. It ended up being Chase, but the original was with Washington Mutual from slightly before their shit show detonated. At any rate, I have zero intentions of being in the market for real estate any time soon and I couldn't be more glad that is the case. I'm definitely in a hunker down phase now.
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