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 But Inflation Was Going Away!
Flappingeagle 5k posts, incept 2011-04-14
2023-09-14 14:09:43

There's a FED meeting Sept 20. Will we see another 1/4 point increase? I sure hope so.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave
Mannfm11 8k posts, incept 2009-02-28
2023-09-14 14:20:31

Joeh wrote..
6 Month Treasuries are yielding over 5.5%. 2-year yield over 5%. 30-year yield 4.35%. I don't see an economic uptick on the horizon. Any insight as to how we can commit to 4.35% for 30 years without being able to inflate the currency? War? (unlikely) Reduced SS and Medicare outlays? (lower life expectancy?) Something else?


WTF do you think interest rates are supposed to be with a 2% inflation target? My education told me the risk free rate was supposed to be inflation plus 3%. We aren't there yet. What the Fed and how the government operated was fiction. We haven't seen anything yet. Bad money drives out the good. The good is capital, which is leaving the country. Credit is to buy something that already exist. They can't create goods and services. There is a liquidation coming. The USA produces nothing but debts and exchange traded equities today, production fleeing bad money. Europe is worse and Canada has gone full 4th Reich. One who can't pay their debts is bankrupt.

Someone mentioned the Fed losing money on their securities. Look at Japan, with their money in full decline. They have produced an inflationary boom in their stock market, which is still trading below the january 1990 high. The JCB holds a massive amount of QE at negative rates. Their currency is in full decline and the bank will have to defend at some point. It will go bankrupt. The Fed can protect itself by ceasing to sell, but QE isn't in the cards again. China also has a currency and banking problem. I think the Yen decline and China are linked. Edward Dowd says the dollar is going to collapse upward. I'm not sure he isn't correct. There was a Petrodollar for a reason and the need for more dollars when the currency exchanges will produce fewer for the same products don't solve the problem. The delusion that game is done because India bought oil with their money is running amok. They always bought oil in their money. just like the Europeans did in theirs. Pricing in dollars is just another way of saying they want the equivalent. You won't see a published price in Rupees, unless there are financial assets in Rupees worth possessing. India is likely the next growth game that means anything, should the entire house of cards remain intact.

Joeh asks a damn good question. They haven't paid even the 2% they were paying. What happens when it goes to 7%?

While I'm commenting, Karl raised a good issue I have some experience.

KD wrote..
When people plant or build trees they damn well ought to pay attention to where the fall line might be 10, 20, 50 years hence. If that's a problem then you top the tree at the ~10 year point.

Its ALSO the root system spread and potential impact on the foundation and, depending on where your underground lines are, power, water, gas and sewer. ESPECIALLY sewer.


I don't think oaks are that big a deal, but when they built here around 50 years ago they planted fruitless mulberries and cottonwoods. Rather than go down into the ground, these trees roots go sideways for a long way. One house I have had a cottonwood that was maybe 50 foot tall. I was finding surface roots 4 inches in diameter 30 feet away. The tree had literally tilted the house.

The last time I did major work on the house, I heard a water noise. I finally located it in the hall bathroom. I think it cost me $4500. The plumber had to cut roots bigger around than my leg. I finally cut the tree down when the tenant complained about it dropping limbs. $1600. It was a bargain.

If there is a saving grace on this particular house it is the plumbing is a shotgun through the house. The house is getting close to 50 years old and I assume it is cast iron. The good part is there hasn't been the stopping up issues you usually have when plumbing is shot. That will be around $20K, unless I can find some cheap diggers. My sister worries about stuff like that. I just recognize its one reason a new one costs another $100K.

Then there are the foundation issues. There's an engineer we used to employ. In fact he does the engineering reports for the foundation company. He says you don't touch a 40 year old foundation unless you have to. I fixed a couple in the mid 2000's. What a mess that turned into. His reasoning was the house is still standing. You move one part of the foundation, plan on moving all of it. Then think about what jacking it is going to do to the plumbing. Adjusting a few doors and fixing a few cracks that show up from time to time generally works. If the brick is about to tilt off the walls, you don't have much choice, but go ahead and do the whole thing and hope the plumbing doesn't break. Fixing foundations aren't that complicated. It is the associated stuff that can turn into a nightmare.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith

Reason: last sentence
Mannfm11 8k posts, incept 2009-02-28
2023-09-14 14:36:15

KD wrote..
Better figure out what things look like with -30% on federal spending -- if not -50%. And yeah, that's not going to be "without serious consequence" literally anywhere.


Just think how fast that would solve things. I can't recall whether is was Mises or Rothbard who said you stop inflating, inflation stops almost immediately. Obviously they haven't stopped. I don't think the Fed has much effect when the main inflator can just ignore what it costs to borrow.

Being, with productivity gains, prices should naturally decline. The financial sector can't stand that, as the prices are created by constant inflation. If they are going to maintain SS and Medicare, that disappears DC. Welfare can go back to the States, we can close the border and send they welfare people to California, which would collapse immediately.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Snowgirl 25 posts, incept 2021-09-13
2023-09-14 14:49:40

My 22-year-old son is not covered by his employer's health insurance plan so he purchases catastrophic coverage. His premium for a single plan in 2023 is $255.73 per month. The premium is scheduled to increase to $379.16 beginning January 2024. A roughly 50% increase for the same level of coverage!

We just received our new premium for our umbrella policy. It is scheduled to increase by 40% and we have never filed a claim. Waiting to hear on our homeowners and car insurance premiums. At this point we are expecting to see double digit price increases for these insurances too.
44dave 111 posts, incept 2021-09-16
2023-09-14 15:00:30

I wonder how much inflation is impacted by the movement of people.

For example, I'm visiting Albania for a few weeks. I stopped into a pizza joint for a coffee (since everyone out front was drinking coffee). After doing that for a few days, the bartender started speaking with me - in passable english. He wants to move to Miami next year to be a nurse. He told me that 6 years ago, he and 25 friends were local. Today, there are 3 people and him still in Albania - the rest of his friends have already left.

And the pizza place? Doesn't make pizza anymore. They can't find anyone to man the kitchen, so it's the bartender and 1 waiter. The good news for me is that coffee is cheap here - only 70lek for an espresso, or 80lek (approx. 80 cents) for an americano. The bad news is that groceries are outrageous - at least 2x what they were in Italy. The flip side is that the souvlaki and pizza at the right places are cheap - 190lek and 250lek - so I've been eating out most of my meals. It doesn't help my carb-counting, but I don't plan on being here that long.
Joeh 21 posts, incept 2023-02-10
2023-09-14 15:02:12

@Mannfm11, 7%? I'm not doubting you because it's still negative to real inflation. Where does the money come from? The math points to a 2008^2 event is my hunch.
Jack_crabb 18k posts, incept 2010-06-25
2023-09-14 15:02:18

I didn't think catastrophic health insurance (you know, REAL insurance, not this bullshit they call insurance) policies were still available.

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Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Tickerguy 198k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-09-14 15:02:39

You can buy them if you're under 26 (I think its 26) still and the GOP did kill the penalty for not having an Obamacare-compliant policy.

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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."

Jack_crabb 18k posts, incept 2010-06-25
2023-09-14 15:04:49

Fat lot of good that does an old(er) fuck like me. smiley

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Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Tickerguy 198k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-09-14 15:05:01

Fat lot of good it does ANYONE given how they're structured and priced today. The only exception is someone who is BOTH young AND makes a lot of money. If you make under the subsidy cut-off but OVER the Medicaid threshold, and you're pretty sure you will remain there, Obamacare is the zero-cost option. Shitty, but if you get hit by a bus or get cancer it will cover most of it.

The Cat policy COSTS MORE and covers LESS, so unless you're in a situation where the Obamacare subsidy is gone (you make too much) AND are young enough to be able to buy one the math doesn't work.

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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."

Jack_crabb 18k posts, incept 2010-06-25
2023-09-14 15:06:48

yup.

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Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Thombradley 304 posts, incept 2021-11-01
2023-09-14 15:56:55

here is my prediction The analogy I draw was with the early days of cell phone bills and the myriad taxes excise fees etc were 25 percent they just appeared Just got my renewal for car insurance up 25 percent Well i can afford that but do I dump it? Its my second car? If enough people do that the economy goes to shit as service dealers contract. When I die I will take solace that I wont be around

Drifter 2k posts, incept 2016-02-11
2023-09-14 15:57:01

@ewt-- been making the same money as I did in 2009. Was great then, but it certainly has been an inflationary paycut. That's how much insurance companies have capped reimbursement.

I might cancel every insurance contract I have 12/31. I'll slow way down, but I'm at the pt in life I don't give a crap.
Workerbee23 263 posts, incept 2021-09-15
2023-09-14 16:05:27

1. heard yesterday that Truist will be laying off around 5400 employees, though a lot of this will be chaff, that's a pretty significant number
2. gas prices haven't moved much in this state as the governor has suspended the gas tax for a month
3. we had an issue in our old house with a dirty water (not sewage, thank GOD) from a downstairs shower. Rotorooter gave us a quote around $2k. Turns out a pine tree across the street had roots under the street that had entered the pipe. They had to dig up a good portion of our front yard before they discovered the problem. Technically, it should have been the county's problem as the breach was under the asphalt but we didn't want to deal with that headache. Ultimately they told us that we were lucky as the job would have cost well over $6k when it was all said an done but they stood by their estimate. If you live anywhere in the south, get the trees (esp pine) away from your house. Those roots are shallow and spread much wider than you would think.
4. my sister came to see the new house. we stopped at the local coffee/icecream place. She asked for a single scoop, small cone. The kid behind the counter was using a fairly small scooper. He put a scoop in the actual cone and then added 3 small scoops on top. My sis had this look on her face like "what is this?" and I asked, does it taste ok? She said yes but she just wanted a small scoop. The girl that had made my coffee said " well I think that if you're going to pay $3.50 for an ice cream cone, you should get more than a tiny scoop!"
My large (bigger than a Starbucks venti) ice latte (with 4 shots of good espresso) made with HWC + the ice cream was under $10. But this is super small town, local median income is under $40k. charge too much and you won't have clientele. Food is still pricey but portions are still good with good service. 2 sandwiches + side, Diet Coke ($2.50 for garbage!) and an appetizer was under $40.

Downside to the small town: trying to find someone to clean out from under the house (built in 1943) so we can see what's really going on with the supports and get a better view of the plumbing and electrical. Being so far out has serious limits on certain things. At some point an idiot thought it would be a good idea to install an HVAC system, then either didn't finish or ripped it out but left all the ductwork, holes in the original hardwood floors and a large metal vent on the outside. God people are stupid.
Still worth it.

In regards to inflation: what a bunch of LIARS. The charity that does cheap spay and neuters at the local vet went from a cost of $20 to $30 per pet. Still a steal but that's a 50% increase. My dogs pain meds (both have knee problems from old injuries) has gone up from $80 month to $110....in the past year.

Winesorbet 977 posts, incept 2010-08-23
2023-09-14 16:14:16

If there was ever a day where the expression the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent it would be today.
Tickerguy 198k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-09-14 16:15:05

People still think the Fed will rescue them.

They can't.

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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
Ewtnewbie2 298 posts, incept 2021-09-13
2023-09-14 16:49:15

@Drifter--yup, I'm in the same boat. Been making "roughly" the same since 10+ years ago and I passed my "give a fuck" level a long time ago. Now I just do what I want to do, see the patients I want to see, and work 3 days a week for 7 hours a day. I fire patients that can't keep their appointment, show up late chronically, etc... No desire to deal with that when I'm going to give them 100% and stand behind my work.

I'm off more days than I'm in the office in a given year. We're going to work 146 in 2023. Great side gig...and wish you the best if you decide to push the insurance companies out of your place and offer a great service at a reasonable price. Old school dentistry is almost dead, and when a few more of us retire, it will definitely be killed off. So sad.
Kcforreal 74 posts, incept 2021-09-27
2023-09-14 16:50:55

Concerning medical insurance - I became eligible for Medicare in January 2022 when I hit 65. Before that I NEVER had an Obamacare policy - instead I got 6 month short-term medical policies, as many times as necessary. My last monthly payment for one of these policies in Dec. 2021 was to National General Insurance for $239.01. I would have refused Obamacare no matter what. I would change providers from time to time but I did so with the help of an insurance broker. Btw, I am currently on a Medicare Advantage plan, best option for me considering what's available to me and with my physical condition (excellent).

Concerning large trees - the fucker who I bought my current home from in 1998 planted 7 large trees including a red oak, a linden tree, 2 locust trees, a huge silver leaf maple and 2 white pine trees. I had every one removed but not before I paid $15,000 for a new sewer main damaged by roots. The fellow planted the pine trees where they conveniently grew up near and overshadowed power lines. That damned locust tree overhung the line to my house and we were without power in the winter one year for 5 days when a carpenter ant-infested locust limb dropped. As far as the others I got them all removed in time before high winds from thunderstorms (Overland Park, KS) could do any further damage. Leaf removal is a breeze now from the smaller trees. Huge ash on right of way in front yard is to be removed by OP at their cost and a smaller tree replanted, hopefully this year. The other trees pose no danger to anything and it's going to STAY THAT WAY!!!

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"Most people are not just comfortable in their ignorance, but hostile to anyone who points it out." - Plato, The Allegory of the Cave
Snowgirl 25 posts, incept 2021-09-13
2023-09-14 17:20:04

@Jack_crabb and @Tickerguy

You can purchase a catastrophic policy if you are under the age of 30.
Tickerguy 198k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-09-14 17:20:16

Ah it's 30. Got it.

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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
Kikknback 1k posts, incept 2020-03-17
2023-09-14 19:14:13

Temp Inflation Surcharge

This is what business owners are getting added to their invoices from some suppliers.

One yesterday is only for TWO PERCENT (2%) of TOTAL Products purchased on the invoice. What's two percent (2%) when you can just pass it down the line, right?

And the big question, do you put that 2% in the column to get marked up alongside the products you're selling or do you just pass it along untouched. Your money "is" being tied up until you get paid by your customer, and you do have a right to make money on your money when it is tied up and unable to make you money.

I like how they put the word "Temp" in there, when it needs to be permanently added into the cost of the products and not a separate line item on the invoice.

After all, this inflation will be permanently with us until it all blows the top off, and we become Zimbabwe 2.0.
Eventhorizon 29 posts, incept 2018-05-23
2023-09-14 19:14:21

The inflation numbers are a joke. Today I received a quote for a fancy RF analog electronic module (US made, not that rubbish Chinese stuff) that we buy every now and then for the lab. Exactly two years ago we bought the exact same unit. The price quoted today? 53% higher compared to 2 years ago. And this is a 20 yr old design!
Drifter 2k posts, incept 2016-02-11
2023-09-14 19:14:31

Another consequence of inflation-- no more dental freebies: toothbrush, tpaste, floss. I spend $4k/year on that stuff. Done with it.

An acquaintance that owns a restaurant-- no more toothpicks, after dinner mints and napkin dispensers.

Shit's getting real.
Dvanderp71 673 posts, incept 2007-08-05
2023-09-14 19:14:37

The way I see it is that the monetary policy dogma of raising interest rates "to fight inflation" will not work. If it ever worked, causality in my view is far from direct nor linear.

This theory has been in place for long since the times of Fisher and Keynes. It focuses on the consumer and business borrowing, which will in my view prove very incorrect theories in the current times. These were devised in a time that the government was austere and did little deficit spending.
The governments today are far bigger borrowers than the private sector and they don't show any indication of slowing that. They will just tax more as the interest rises. And don't expect unfunded liabilities to do in the future?

Today, the cause of inflation is twofold: deficit spending is completely out of control and so are shortages, mostly artificially created by all means possible be it regulation, sanctions, ideology, market distortions. You see them all around you.

In this way it's fairly easy to see what I believe is likely to result if the interest rate mechanism is kept applied in combination with highly excessive deficits.
I don't think you will be very happy owning nothing but at the current course I believe that is the iceberg ahead. Call me a pessimist or, as I would prefer, wrong.
Unwashed 113 posts, incept 2023-06-23
2023-09-14 19:14:52

My car insurance went up 40% this year, homeowner not that much but renewal isn't until 1/24, not looking forward to it.

As to the ACA (will not dignify that POS with his name sake), MY daughter changed careers back in 2015, quit her job in another state and came home to attend a 2 year Ultrasound coarse. Applied for health ins through the ACA, found a plan Bluecross for like $350 a month that my wife and I was willing to paid until she finished and found a job. They denied her since her reportable income at the time was under some amount. The told her she would have to go on medicaid, WTF. She called and told them the premiums were going to get paid, they didn't care, MF'er. Well she finished the coarse and found a decent job and off medicaid. Although I was pretty pissed off when this happened, in hind sight this is what safety nets were meant to do, temporary help, not a life time or generational welfare.

Trees- 2017 in previous house cut down a red oak ~100 ft with a trunk dia of 24", 1 smaller tree and pruned all branches overhanging the house $900. I've complained about the new house having no trees for shade but after reading this thread, changed my mind.
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