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 But Inflation Was Going Away!
Phils 257 posts, incept 2018-02-07
2023-09-14 10:55:57

The financial engineering people are working overtime, but all they have left is temporary fixes.

The zero rate tool bought us another decade of false prosperity.
The inflation tool is helping to reduce ouroversidedebt
Cmoledor 2k posts, incept 2021-04-13
2023-09-14 11:13:25

So does it end with a whimper or a bang?? Inquiring minds and all that.

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The whole world is one big fucking scam
Full throttle till the end. Ocdawg
Take the stick you tried to beat me with and go fuck your own face. Ishmael
Tappedout 300 posts, incept 2020-09-21
2023-09-14 11:13:36

"Restaurants seem to think they can keep jacking prices too; food away from home continues to rise much faster than groceries. I got news for those folks: There's a point where the price of a hamburger or beer isn't worth it, "

The other half of the restaurant inflation story? The missing half of the entree. If they are not raising prices,
they are cutting the size of the protein serving. More commonly both. That simply leaves me feeling fleeced. And that leads to:

The psychology of inflation in full force in our home. We have zero financial stress, but our outlook on the economy and prices/ our cost-benefit analyses have significantly changed our purchasing behavior. We question everything.

A consumer based economy thrives when people spend like drunken sailors (Apologies to drunken sailors, who usually limit their spending to the money that's in their pocket).

The music is slowing down. I just wonder if it will stop before this Christmas season.
Tickerguy 198k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-09-14 11:14:00

I smell GRINCHMAS

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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
Greenacr 897 posts, incept 2016-03-15
2023-09-14 11:18:06

The headline over at CNBC is "August Wholesale prices rises .7%, hotter than expected, core prices in check"

Laughable. Food and energy are where the rubber meets the road for 75 percent of the population. Bidenomics is working! I would expect Sleepy Joe to be touting his economic record soon.
Andrew 238 posts, incept 2014-09-24
2023-09-14 11:56:57

@Cmoledor I'd bet on both.
First the bang, then the whimper.
Shadowmask 6k posts, incept 2021-05-24
2023-09-14 11:57:01

Grinchmas, complete with enlarged hearts from the next round of clot shots.

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The learning curve for being dead is steep, but everyone gets it down pat on the first go usually.--Thystra, March 28, 2023
Ronniemcghee 497 posts, incept 2012-07-28
2023-09-14 11:59:41

Powell knows if he can't get Congress' spending in check, the economic asteroid impact is eminent.
Some are predicting a pause in interest rates.
With spending increasing and inflation increasing it is hard to believe Powell would pause.
What would be the effect of a 3 to 6 month pause in rate increases?



Aquapura 4k posts, incept 2012-04-19
2023-09-14 12:00:02

Had a tree taken down at my old place back in 2007 or thereabouts. It was a maple with trunk over 55" in diameter. Paid $900 to take the entire tree down. That included stump grinding. Took it down in winter when the ground was frozen so told them to drive the boom truck right into the back yard and do their shit, so I was finding ways to keep costs down but overall a bargain by today's standards. Today? I know people who have taken down similar for upwards of $10k. Oh, and I didn't need any ins. co. telling me to take it down. I knew it was a risk to the house and I made it gone. That's common sense.

I do find it amusing that everyone sees the inflation in everyday items yet my Clients seem to think my fees or the cost of their projects shouldn't rise. They're not stupid, they just want to squeeze anyone they can for a better deal, but in my professional career I've never seen so many jobs die due to cost. Proformas don't pencil out and Clients are pulling the plug left and right. 2008-09 was different. It was sudden. Today Clients are foolishly still trying to make things work like they used to and they just don't anymore. Not when capital costs are literally double what they were 3-4 years ago and revenue is well.....

Cmoledor 2k posts, incept 2021-04-13
2023-09-14 12:19:09

I can see that @Andrew

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The whole world is one big fucking scam
Full throttle till the end. Ocdawg
Take the stick you tried to beat me with and go fuck your own face. Ishmael
Ronniemcghee 497 posts, incept 2012-07-28
2023-09-14 12:19:26

@Greenacr ~

The House GOP signed the last budget, nuked the debt ceiling, and approved tens of thousands of new IRS agents to feast on the middle class.

Uniparty.
Disgusted 565 posts, incept 2021-07-20
2023-09-14 12:55:37

Everything is don't believe your own lying eyes now. The bullshit inflation numbers are a huge example. Anyone that believes the lying cock suckers are the same fucking idiots that think dementia Joe is OK and the clot shots are a good thing. The economy tanking late this year and into next year is going to be a disaster for the shit heads running the shitshow, so how long before Powell is dead by some "accident" and a new clown is put in to lower rates and pump the system to try to make things look better? Good luck with that shit MF'ers.
Vernonb 3k posts, incept 2009-06-03
2023-09-14 12:56:17

Asshole neighbor decided to plant maples om properyu line lesd than 20 feet from my house. I had planted evergreens there (spruces) with a limited height of 15 feet max.

Asshole decides to cut all the limbs off a 40 foot oak. It died and is now rotting. Waiting on it to fall ovet... likely on my property.

Ready to shoot this POS. Was oom Megan's list fir molesting niece. Of course no one informed us when he moved in next door. FU Pennsylvania.

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"Mass intelligence does not mean intelligent masses."
K5555 179 posts, incept 2021-04-18
2023-09-14 12:56:30

Car insurance up about 20% each year for the past two years. I love that compounded interest. Homeowners insurance, after going down last year to the shock of everyone/me, just went up 46%. I will be shopping that, but it seems pointless. Perhaps it is due to all the extra "value" I achieved in my house. No claims on either, and my vehicles are not anything even remotely approaching new.

Literally the same day I received a raise earlier in the year, I received a notice from the city in the mail that my property tax was going up. Obviously, inflation is under control...

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Fight like you are the third monkey on the ramp to Noah's Ark and it is starting to rain.
Ewtnewbie2 298 posts, incept 2021-09-13
2023-09-14 12:56:44

As a dentist, I can assure you that insurance companies have not raised their reimbursements anywhere near quoted or actual inflation to the providers. Yet, my costs have gone up more than CPI indicates they should have.

Have an LOI on the table now, proposed closing in 45 days. Well see how it progresses. Wish me luck.
Veeger 1k posts, incept 2013-02-13
2023-09-14 13:33:10

@Ewtnewbie2

Yep.... hope it works out. I think Mrs Veeger and I are hoping for one to land in our Inbox soon as well. I think we're 'almost' ready.... Don't really want to overtly look for one just yet lest it be seen as a distress call. (It wouldn't be, but it might 'say' otherwise)

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I remember the Diamond Princess.


Slowly at first, then all of a sudden.
Mannfm11 8k posts, incept 2009-02-28
2023-09-14 13:33:19

KD wrote..
What's the cause of all of it?

Deficit spending.


That is almost the exact cause. Government expansion is the cause, just like the 1960's-1970's. Deficits are the symptoms. The government is throwing money down the toilet and destroying capacity with regulations. Some of this was sowed by Obama, not unwound by Trump and accellerated by Biden. The Republicans won't fire Santa Claus. Think the alien flow is reducing pressure on required costs?

There were some things I could see in the early 1980's. One was the nature of the tax schedules present in 1980. Government had incentive to inflate, because the income tax code produced higher tax rates with higher pay. The Reagan tax cuts stripped away this hidden tax increase and deficits became permanent. The difference was there was no delusion you could keep spiraling spending. Taxes go into costs in the private sector. So do regulations. They never cut spending, but the rate of growth and every nutty idea of government wasn't installed.

The eye opener for me was when I bought a book by Irwin Schiff that had the budget spending and receipts for the government from 1960 to 1975. I did a projection of the trend and it produced $1 trillion deficits by 1991. The $300 billion we got with the S&L bailouts was shocking and so was the first trillion dollar one around 2008 or 2009, but it was delayed nearly 20 years.

There was one other thing that blew up the 1980's deficit, financing costs. Long term rates doubled and stayed high for years. I believe the Fed was over restrictive in the 80's. Not at the start, but by 1985, funds rates should have been brought down. I don't believe we ever saw a funds rate under 7% until around 1991. Maybe they needed to send Congress a signal, but the move down in the 1990's produced a bubble and excess demand that went out of the country. Investment didn't work with 10% rates. Real Estate imploded and the short cut Congress took to cover up the bankruptcy of S&L's failed massively. There was a demand that couldn't be financed and I believe the housing bubble 20 years later had its roots in this period.

I was in the residential business back then. I was more interested in financial programs than selling houses. I can tell you the typical homebuyer is stupid and their agent is even more clueless. ARM's were the name of the game back then, because rates had to go on a downward trend. The best ARM ever created was the original uncapped 1 year that gave an option to limit P&I increases by 7.5%. The margin above treasury was 1.5%. People wouldn't buy it, because the crooks created monster out of the structure, put in a bought down rate and a 3% margin. Now, if the treasury is 10%, the internal rate on one is 11.5% and the other is 13%. One costs 1.5% up front and the other 3% to get 10%. To get 10% on a fixed cost you 5.75 points, went to 11%, 12% then 13%, giving about a 25% increase in P&I by the 4th year. The subsidy was spent up front and included in the price. If you couldn't pay the increase, effecting a sale in a bad market was not easy, especially with the purchase price padded to include buydown. Then the house might not appraise. Point being the second option already had negative interest in the price, nearly 4% above the first. What people ended up taking were high fixed rates or ARMs with caps and 3% margins. Who could pay 3 successive 2% interest increases, paying 1.5% for the privilege? They were priced to almost guarantee the first increase.

I had an ARM with a 2.25% margin. The real estate agents were clueless what that meant. I could draw them a picture. The start rate was a little higher, but the adjustment was eventually going to produce a 3/4% lower rate permanently. If I had a choice, I would have bought the one with no caps that had the capacity to immediately meet a sizable decrease in rates.

The point of all of this is we are seeing the same game, second verse. We actually have a man in the White House who participated in creating the last mess. Instead of war on poverty, he is running a war on energy, small business and the Bill of Rights. It is a hell of a note they called the looting of the treasury the Inflation Reduction act, when it should have been labelled the Inflation Sustaining and Energy Reduction Act. The bastards stole a trillion dollars upon Biden entering office, took it out the next year and claimed deficit reduction, only to put this trojan horse in to permanently fuck up the system. We haven't seen the electricity bills or the economic limitations they are creating, using our own money to create an emergency.

Today, I wouldn't buy an ARM, because the trend has reversed. The Fed can't do QE this time or they blow the top off inflation. Just like the 1970's, the government is financing counter productive functions. They can twist the narrative all they like, but they can't defeat math and economic responses. Destroying the energy structure and spending trillions on something that can't work and will waste massive resources is akin to feeding cattle so they can shit. They have broken the financial model, giving an immediate $1 trillion cost of financing the debt and this dog won't hunt for long. They are doing this on purpose. The stealing has just begun when we think its already obscene. Whose living standard is going to reduce, DC's or ours? The shit sandwich is in front of us and they are making another. I think they should eat it or we abolish them.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Proverbs16.33 302 posts, incept 2021-10-22
2023-09-14 13:33:30

Ha, just read an article in the semi-local news blowing hot air about all the "good news" in this inflation:
https://wraltechwire.com/2023/09/13/infl....
Good thing most people today don't understand math.
Jesjohn94 1k posts, incept 2019-05-07
2023-09-14 13:45:53

What we are seeing now is embedded inflation. It was stupid to think it wouldn't happen. When prices go up everyone's cost goes up so what you have to pay goes up for pretty much everything. The businesses that are going to suffer are those selling things people want but don't really need.
Treblec 25 posts, incept 2022-03-10
2023-09-14 13:46:04

I am a private music instructor. I keep waiting for the shoe to drop. So far my studio remains full. Usually private music lessons are the first to go when money gets tight. People usually give me up for sports when they have to choose. I am not complaining, but I am surprised.
Redjack 2k posts, incept 2018-01-29
2023-09-14 13:53:30

So, for a guy in his late 40's, what is the game?

Keep dumping into my 401K? My house is locked in at a sub %3 rate, and will be paid off soon, but that locks me in this location.

Just pondering.

I was told once most businesses rely on government spending of some sort. What happens when that cools?
Tickerguy 198k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2023-09-14 13:54:10

Better figure out what things look like with -30% on federal spending -- if not -50%. And yeah, that's not going to be "without serious consequence" literally anywhere.

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"Anyone wearing a mask will be presumed to be intending armed robbery and immediately shot in the face. Govern yourself accordingly."
Redjack 2k posts, incept 2018-01-29
2023-09-14 14:08:52

Which, in many places, means "lights out and now water."

So my long term plan to move below the snow line may happen sooner.
Kiwiapsa 45 posts, incept 2021-09-12
2023-09-14 14:09:04

@Tickerguy: Exactly right. Tree was estimated to be 130 years old or so. House and garage built in 1953. Why build the garage right next to a fully mature tree??? Take out the doggone tree first. I bought the house in 2001. Naive first-time buyer. About 5 years ago I had to remove another tree close to south-east front corner because of foundation concerns. Was able to DIY with a friend who once cut them down for a living. The large tree the company mistakenly cut had roots that pushed through sewer pipeline and that was an expensive repair. So yeah, think future growth before you plant and gain knowledge before buying yourself future expenses.
Flappingeagle 5k posts, incept 2011-04-14
2023-09-14 14:09:28

Quote:
"Restaurants seem to think they can keep jacking prices too; food away from home continues to rise much faster than groceries. I got news for those folks: There's a point where the price of a hamburger or beer isn't worth it, "


Here's where restaurants and a lot of other businesses are finding themselves.

You cannot sell at a loss and make it up on volume.

There are likely many, many businesses that were profitable a few years back that are not now. The increase in costs without a comparable increase in incomes is destroying them.

It is only getting started.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
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