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2022-01-11 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors , 767 references Ignore this thread
Now What Joe?
[Comments enabled]

Oh, inflation and the supply chain issues are just transitory eh?

Uh, not really.

Stress on the supply chain due to labor shortages has ultimately come to fruition, wiping out products from store shelves across the nation.

Reporters and other shoppers took out their frustration on Twitter by sharing photos of their local grocery stores and tagging #BareShelvesBiden, which began trending.

Uh, what did you expect after decades of offshoring and stretching supply chains across oceans?

You took the bet that nothing would ever happen either here or there that might cause trouble in exchange for higher stock prices since the entire point of doing it was to evade environmental laws, labor laws or both.  The "here" is under our control; we can choose, for example, to tell all the histrionic screamers to go shove it and go to work or starve.

But we can't tell the Chinese to do that!  We can't tell some foreign nation what to do; while we can ask that's the limit of it.

We've been taught this lesson many times; Arab Oil Embargo anyone?

I'm old enough to remember what that caused and the "fun" that we inflicted on ourselves because we were stupid.  Are you?

We didn't learn the lesson even though it was taught, did we?  Rather than take to heart all the pain that time dished up we instead decided to make it even worse by putting basically everything in someone else's basket, starting with every little chip and discrete component necessary to build, well, anything with an electronic element to it, which today is basically everything.

Oh, you'd like a microwave without an electronic timer?  Or a mechanical timer on a washing machine or dryer?

They don't exist.

Instead there are a whole plethora of little chips and discrete components on a board that does this for you which is all fine and well provided you can get all of them.  If even one is unavailable..... oops.

Yeah, that was stupid.

It was stupid the last time too.

Do you think we're going to learn from it this time?

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Njca
Posts: 127
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If we export all manufacturing and services provision to China, resulting in obscenely low prices, imagine how wealthy we'd ll all be. ;.)
Blanca
Posts: 309
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Yes!

And the ***** insanity exacerbated the situation. Tradesmen (painters, electricians, plumbers) can basically name their price for any service, as I am finding as I make repairs to my home.

On Sunday my wife and I tried to go into a small restaurant for lunch. The host began frantically waving his hands and rudely stated "we are full - no more people". Likely he reached his wit's end with the staffing shortages. Nearly every place I visit has a help wanted sign on the door. There were lines at a big box home store just to get paint made. I felt sorry for the poor, masked workers behind the counters.

The junk from China is problematic because we've replaced reliable appliances that lasted for decades that used mechanical switches with electrical/computer chips that fail and render the appliances obsolete.

Meanwhile the jackasses in the government continue to beat the drums about Ukraine while oppressing its own citizens at home. Unable to handle the domestic crisis, the government turns its attention to another debacle in the making.

Keep shutting down businesses, enforcing ***** mandates, and raising taxes and printing money. That'll solve all of our problems!
Tritumi
Posts: 502
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tokyo
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No, as long as money can be made on the throttling, there will be no learning.
Smokeyblonde13
Posts: 89
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Phoenix
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Quote:
Do you think we're going to learn from it this time?

We learned decades ago; the rest will never learn until there is some sort of kinetic civil action.
Patrick58
Posts: 61
Incept: 2019-08-08

BEECHER
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I studdied the topic of "unnecessary complexity" some many years ago, and knew it would lead to disaster eventually. I was told (and scolded) that everything had a "life cycle" designed into the device so that essentially everything wore out.
I was raised by old school folks who had lived through the depression.

I have heard via the interwebs of farmers who purchased new Green Tractors that they can barely service their own tractors and that the software is owned by the Green Tractor company. Some of the farmers are really upset that they are beholden to the manufacturer for basic service that they were accustomed to doing themselves in the off season to save money and keep an eye on wear and tear.

I used to do mechanical and some electrical design (as well as PLC programming), when we actually knew how to write subroutines and knew how to design elegant code (instruction sets) to minimize wasted instructions and operate within minimal memory constraints. I am doubtful that the current kids doing this stuff even know what the KISS principal was, and why it was necessary.

I recall in one of my mettalurgy classes learning that some savy designers didn't know how "stress and strain" diagrams worked, and consequently designed landing gear for aircraft carriers from chrome moly, only to discover the mar-aging alloys (17-4 and such), and what their true application was. I wonder if our failures of past are even remembered?

I'm still using AutoCad Release 14, as I neither need the complexity of the new software, and don't have to pay a rental fee, and it generates files that can easily be migrated to G-Code for two axis plasma cutting. (I still use windows 95, 98, or NT, and I need no virus protection as these are "stand alone platforms). Simpler times were better. Just musings, from a guy who still knows how to run an engine lathe, cut tapers (sometimes by accident), and run a mill with the old Sony Magnascale.
Patrick58
Posts: 61
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BEECHER
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I had a stepson who fathered a child named "Justin". He showed up only at parties where he would receive gifts. I changed his last name to "Time".

I don't see him anymore due to a divorce. I don't miss him.
Flappingeagle
Posts: 4367
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Online
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Any lessons learned will be quickly forgotten. Bet on it.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Stetson
Posts: 51
Incept: 2021-09-09

SE USA
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"Do you think we're going to learn from it this time?"

No.

As corporate execs search for short-term profits, so as to maximize their annual bonuses, the long-term impact of their actions will continue to be ignored.
Shadowmask
Posts: 1732
Incept: 2021-05-24

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Gas is down, so it costs less to drive to the store and be disappointed.
Cmoledor
Posts: 526
Incept: 2021-04-13

Akron Ohio FEMA region 5
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Well. No. No we didnt learn. Not sure we ever will. Cheers all.

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The whole world is one big ****ing scam
Why are you giving a vulgarity warning here? Our genial host is an advocate of both skull****ing and sodomy via rusty chainsaw. Credit to Rollformer
Wakesetter
Posts: 27
Incept: 2010-06-08

Tokyo
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@TG - Yep, I haven't been able to secure RPi CM4 (any flavor) modules for over 6 months. DigiKey got about 130 in stock one day and they were gone in hours. The apuXX you recommended way back in 2017 as a firewall/router has been out of stock even longer, and I just checked the February 2022 availability date was changed to just 2022 now.

Discrete passive and active SMD parts are hit and miss. I haven't run into any issues with TH (Axial/Radial) comps, only the inflated prices on high quality caps. Design by availability is becoming a norm, and Im just a hobbyist.


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"Parasites cant sustain prosperity." - Doug Casey
Seektruth
Posts: 1190
Incept: 2007-09-01
A True American Patriot!

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The context is different but Winston Churchill *supposedly* said "You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing, after they have exhausted all the other possibilities."

I think that is incorrect. Americans will continue finding ways to do the wrong thing even after exhausting all existing possibilities.



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Truth is out of style.
Proverbs16.33
Posts: 39
Incept: 2021-10-22

WNC Foothills
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I have one client waiting on a small electric actuator. It's pretty small, just a a couple hundred bucks, but VERY specialized in size/range/application, and it's holding up the entire piece of equipment, since mid-November, with no expected delivery date yet due to backorder. And this from a fairly common manufacturer that they "never had problems with" in the past.
Sadly overall I'm just too cynical, and have realized that unless the lessons are REALLY painful people just don't seem to learn...So unfortunately I think we have a lot more pain to endure before enough people wake up. Not to mention all the time/energy/money involved to move production back here. That's not just a snap-your-fingers move...
Tickerguy
Posts: 180232
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A True American Patriot!
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"Two is one, one is none" @Wakesetter.

Unfortunately.

I have two spare apu units -- one for me and one for a potential client failure. I've installed plenty of them but I won't do any more for any client because I can't get them. I won't part with either of the spares, even though I've never had one fail -- because they can fail, like anything else.

HomeDaemon? I was committed to never put up with the government bull**** involved in running a business again, but this has made it 100x worse. I have exactly ONE Rpi4 here; I refuse to pay stupid mark-ups and there are no others. I've got a passel of Rpi2s that still work perfectly well (and are plenty of moxie for this job) and a pair of 3s, one of which is the active unit here in the house and the second is on my bench as a test box. But, since I can't get 4s I've not bothered confirming if it works on there, nor will I put any effort into it even though its a nicer machine -- until and unless the stupid ends.

Fortunately I can do component-level work, even on a SMD board, as I have a hot-air rework station. Unfortunately that's a high-wire act and comes with the risk (always) of destroying the board. I'm good, but not expert-level at it. Without spares, if you lose a board you can't get you're buying a new "whatever it is", if you can get it at all.

Looked at some of the newer "gaming/multimedia" laptops recently. Hope you don't actually need one. They're being quoted as having lead times of 3+ MONTHS to actually get them. WTAF?!

Yeah.

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I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
Semil
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Narrator voiceover...

No, they will not learn.
Traelin0
Posts: 268
Incept: 2021-01-28

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Well, this is what happens when citizens wanna outsource the hard jobs to the ballot box. I just don't feel any pity anymore. Quit feeding the beast or quit bellyaching.
Confused1
Posts: 32
Incept: 2021-08-13

Ohio
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Necessity is the mother of invention. Society at large will never learn, but as Hank Williams Jr. sings, a country country boy can survive. I "brainwash" my boys with good things, classic quotes from the great thinkers of the past on self sufficiency and building character. One thing I constantly tell them from the time they're little is, "We're (our last name), we can fix anything!" I used to bring home junk and let them tear it apart. Eventually you take enough stuff apart you learn how it goes back together. And now they build. They've built houses, cars, businesses, and computers. We may need this coming destruction to actually build back better. I think it will be wildly different than our wanna-be overlords expect.
Andrew
Posts: 3
Incept: 2014-09-24

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So listening to the radio this morning, I hear (near me) there's a potential for a "semiconductor chip factory" being located locally.
Which makes me wonder, since one of the issues is "water usage", but I'm sure that was already thought of as a potential issue.
Where's the "sarcastic font".
I can imagine the bright bulbs hoping for "billions of investment" have a "water guarantee", more than likely.
https://www.dispatch.com/story/business/....
Traelin0
Posts: 268
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Tickerguy wrote..
"Two is one, one is none" @Wakesetter.

I do believe you're a brother from another mother. That's why I try to replace OEM with new OEM. I don't want to do a core return for reman garbage, and I can source the parts to rebuild a lot of the old.
Heartlander
Posts: 1307
Incept: 2021-02-25

Kansas
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@Stetson
Quote:
As corporate execs search for short-term profits, so as to maximize their annual bonuses, the long-term impact of their actions will continue to be ignored.

Yeah, but isn't the problem bigger than individual greedy CEOs? Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe THE LAW REQUIRES corporations to maximize returns to shareholders. Until those laws get changed, corporations will continue to pursue maximum earnings at the expense of long-term damage to our society. But I never hear anyone talking about this, except maybe on the intellectual Left.

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"If God does not exist, everything is permitted." ~ Fyodor Dostoevsky
"In the end the Party would announce that two and two made five, and you would have to believe it." ~ George Orwell
Boredfree
Posts: 141
Incept: 2021-09-15

western slope colorado
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The oil embargo during the 1970s SHOULD have opened people's eyes to the dangers of relying on other nations for strategic materials.

But rather than realistically looking at the world and building supply chains that were both redundant and in our nation's interest we did the opposite.

Someone needs to kick Kissinger's balls up into the back of his throat for selling the west to the Chinese. **** Nixon too for being a willing stooge.

Remember the business press full of stories of corporate raiders who would buy out successful businesses, break them up and sell the peices off for a profit?

All those employees displaced - many working good blue collar jobs. And this strategy was celebrated by short-sighted corporate *******s who ONLY care about the money they made in the deal.

It has been frustrating to watch as our nation being sold for a few shekels... its been worse watching my fellow citizens cheer on their own demise, excitedly gawking as the 'value' of their 'investments' grow.

I don't think people realize they have been standing on financial quicksand, and their investments haven't grown. Rather they have sunk lower and their investments only appear to have grown.

The people who created this mess are going to check out before they feel any real pain from this. And they've known the whole time they've been doing this it wasn't going to hurt them.

7:30 a.m. time to feed the chickens and shoot the bow. Go for a ski, maybe do some cleaning. Life goes on for my family. Hopefully I won't need to know how to kill people or speak Chinese to continue to live out my simple existence...

I'm not full of hope.

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The problem is most people want to point a finger rather than their thumb when dealing with challenges.
Tedstriker1809
Posts: 17
Incept: 2020-05-15

Bumfuque, CO
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Its funny (not really) but were talking about electronic components-the stuff that makes up our everyday lives.

On the more mundane front, I was looking to replace my garage doors; two estimates - a local and a national company - both quoted 6-8 months for delivery and installation 4-6 weeks after that. Its insane.
Tickerguy
Posts: 180232
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Heartlander - True, but that's within the framework allowed by law.

So if you put in wage and environmental parity tariffs (as I've long advocated), and let's add currency manipulation to it (e.g. non-convertible currencies such as the Yuan) then the corporation can no longer do that, because it is no longer maximizing returns by doing so.

End of problem.

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I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.

Mikeyjm2
Posts: 66
Incept: 2011-10-20

Houston, TX
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I bought one of those "game" laptops ~ a year ago for an affordable home CAD machine. Guessing I got in under the wire. I've heard tales of the graphics cards going for insane amounts of $ now. Yikes. Holding what I have now.
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