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2021-03-30 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Stupidity , 1095 references Ignore this thread
The Foolish Bet We've Both Allowed And Made
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Look at the fence around the Capitol, and the National Guard behind same.

The cops in riot gear in Portland and elsewhere.

And the celebrities, health officials, union screamers and politicians all exhorting Americans of all stripes to roll up their sleeves for an experimental vaccine that was not fully tested in animals, was not fully dose-ranged in humans and instead of being put into a couple of thousand volunteers for a ten year period to determine if it produced durable and safe protection instead is being jammed into 100+ million American arms with threats of coercion now coming into the forefront.

What could possibly go wrong?

A Marek's disease style disaster, for one.

What is Marek's disease?

A virus that infects chickens, and which was greatly potentiated by leaky vaccines.  

Don't take my word for it.  No less than National Geographic pointed this out in 2015.

What are we being told about the Covid-19 vaccines?  They are leaky; you should continue to wear a mask and social distance because it is not believed they are all sterilizing; none of them may be.  In addition all of the ones being trialed in the Western World are an imperfect match against the virus because they code only the spike protein of the virus, not the entire viral protein set.  Never mind that all of them available in the US are not actually vaccines by the definition; they instead trick your body into producing the spike protein instead of directly introducing an attenuated or killed virus containing the protein.  This approach, specifically in the case of mRNA technology vaccines has never been used before.  mRNA was originally developed for cancer therapy where, as it should be obvious, you already have a deadly disease and without treatment you are very likely to die.

The risk profile of the two groups of people could not be more different.

Jonas Salk developed the first polio vaccine.  It was leaky in that while it prevented you from getting active polio it didn't stop you from contracting it and excreting it in your feces.  This was recognized by Sabin as very dangerous and thus we for decades used both the injected vaccine and then the oral form, the Sabin vaccine, which produces sterilizing immunity.  I remember being given the oral vaccine as a child.  Why the injected vaccine first?  Because in a very small number of people the oral form would revert in the gut and give you polio instead of protection; the injection prevented that bad outcome.

We knew this more than fifty years ago; non-sterilizing immunity is dangerous.  A virus, in the presence of non-sterilizing immunity, through natural evolutionary pressure will tend to evade that protection and become more deadly.  There is no safe way to use non-sterilizing vaccines if a virus is circulating in the population.

I am generally pro-vaccination for personal prophylaxis against disease.  No vaccine is perfect and no vaccine to "protect others" is ever legitimate under any circumstances, just as I have no obligation to refrain from drinking a beer where you, who are an alcoholic, might see me do it and thus decide to consume your last beer and die.  My daughter received (at my direction with the active assistance of her physician) nearly all of the "recommended" vaccines.  The exception?  HPV because in rare cases it can produce Guillain-Barre, is only protective against some of the strains of the disease, and the disease is only contracted by sexual contact.  Therefore that choice was left to her when she became an adult; I had no right to decide for her, in advance, whether she might choose to never sleep with other than one virginal man in her life, as just one example where the risks would make no sense.  She received the varicella (Chicken Pox) vaccine because despite Chicken Pox being about as dangerous to kids as Covid-19 with damn near every other kid having got the shot the risk of her getting the virus as an adult, where it is much more dangerous, was far higher than the dangers from the shot.

I am against all "mandatory" vaccines and any coercion to obtain them because the argument for taking them should always and only be predicated on the protection they provide you.  If that protection cannot be convincingly proved to you then you should not take it.  That all vaccines occasionally fail is fact.  That all drugs, including vaccines, have risk is also fact.  If you take the vaccine and it fails to protect you then you get just as sick as if you don't take it at all.  If you allow even one person into this nation, ever, under any set of circumstances without iron-clad proof they have taken every single vaccine you try to coerce you are a lying sack of crap and there are literally millions if not tens of millions of such people in this country right now.  They're called illegal invaders and exactly zero of them have shown evidence of vaccination against measles, mumps and myriad other diseases.  Nonetheless no coercion was or is required for me to have both taken them myself and given them to my daughter; the science and evidence is what it is.

HOWEVER, I am decidedly against the Covid-19 vaccines as a "universal" recommendation because in healthy people on the math and science it is STUPID to take them; the data says the risk of the shot in the immediate term is approximately equal to the risk of the disease itself instead of being a tiny fraction, often 1/100,000th of the risk (as with polio) or more lower and we know nothing about the intermediate and longer-term risks.

As a point of comparison out of all the Varicella (Chicken Pox) shots given last year there was one associated death.  ONE.

Across the Covid-19 vaccines given thus far there are 1,920 associated deaths reported for, I remind you, a disease that has approximately the same risk of death in a child as does Chicken Pox.  These reports are late by definition since if I get a shot today the report of my demise if it occurs won't be in their system today.  When you're giving out shots on a mass-basis reporting is always materially behind so the real risk is higher than it first appears.

Accepting certain risk of a given magnitude .vs. potential risk of the same magnitude is stupid.

But the stupidity does not end there.

Coronaviruses have a history of producing "ADE", or antibody-dependent enhancement, when vaccines have been attempted in the past.  That is, rather than provide protection the virus mutates slightly over time and the presence of the antibodies from the vaccine do not protect the victim; they instead greatly enhance viral entry into the cells, effectively acting like a key for the lock and bypassing the other natural immune processes that impede viral entry and replication.  The result of ADE, if it occurs, is usually extremely severe disease or death.

We have been trying to produce a vaccine for coronaviruses, including SARS and MERS along with the 4 circulating strains that produce colds and flus in the population, for decades.  Every single candidate has eventually led to either evasion, making the vaccine worthless, or an ADE-style failure killing all the test animals before the vaccine was able to proceed to human subjects.  The same thing has happened in coronavirus vaccine trials for strains of coronavirus that infect animals, specifically cats.

In this case we deliberately shortened animal trials, proceeded anyway and thus we do not know if that outcome will result.  That outcome could show up six months or five years from now -- or, if we're lucky, never.

We do not know because we did not do the work and take the time to find out.

There are also very serious issues that can arise with vaccines that are unrelated to the actual virus.  In 2009 several swine flu vaccines were rushed out with almost no testing, very similar to what was done this time around, but many caused narcolepsy in both adults and children.  We never did figure out why that happened. The US did not get hit by it because we did not use the specific set of vaccines implicated but Europe did.  I note that this condition, like many others that are autoimmune related, if it occurs results in permanent damage to the person who took the shot that cannot be reversed.

The reason it takes ten years to test a vaccine is not due to lack of funds or lack of desire to proceed faster.  It is because there is no way to know whether such bad effects will occur in less time than that, and short-cutting any of the trial stages greatly raises the risk of missing safety signals, some of which will not become apparent for years.  Once a shot has gone into an arm if there is a problem there is nothing you can do about it.

In an epidemic or pandemic it is very tempting to try to use accelerated development timelines -- as it was in 2009.  If certain population subgroups are at extremely high risk, as is the case here, such use of experimental therapies and prophylaxis may well be justified under fully informed consent.  For example for an 85 year old person with multiple comorbid conditions, such as obesity and Type II diabetes presenting a risk of death 1,000 times that of a non-morbid person, the math may work to the advantage of the individual even with many unknown risks and in such a small portion of the population (nursing home residents are 0.6% of the population) the risk of potentiating more-virile strains is far less and the risk of ADE or non-virus related severe or even fatal side effects, if it occurs, is worth it for that individual.  This must be and should remain their choice.

But this is never true for widespread distribution.

For widespread distribution you must exclude, with absolute certainty, the potential for evasion + virulence to be potentiated.

There is never an excuse for failing to do so with scientific certainty before widespread distribution since being wrong will severely injure or kill a huge percentage, perhaps all, of those who were vaccinated.  Humans are not broiler chickens in a factory farm with 40 day lifespans; we live for decades and being wrong means condemning huge numbers of people to death.

Further, all of the above presumes the Chinese, among others, cannot target the specific antibody pattern that is never seen nature but is produced by these vaccines in a second virus to be intentionally released.  If you think they, and every state-sponsored terrorist group that hates the Western World is not trying to do exactly that you're nuts -- they are.

Folks, if the gamble on this is lost I don't think any of you realize how ugly it will get -- but you should think long and hard about those consequences and that risk should inform whether you allow the politicians and medical lobby to continue down this road or force them to stop by whatever means are necessary.

Let's remember that various members of every single law enforcement division and the military have been talked into or even coerced into taking these experimental vaccines and so have their families.  Yes, that includes the Secret Service, the FBI, the State and local Police in every jurisdiction across the country and more.  Many organizations both public and private (e.g. universities, corporations and others) are intending to or already are enacting coercive policies that effectively demand vaccination with these experimental formulations.

If this forced bet is lost and ADE + virulence shows up those people will watch their WIVES and CHILDREN drop dead and know they are next with 100% certainty since they got the shot too.  The fragging will start immediately and it will not stop; no, not everyone who sees their CHILD fall over dead will go insane with retributive rage but a decent percentage will recognize they were conned and snap and there is no way to know in advance who will and who won't.

There will not be one functional police force anywhere nor will our military be functional.  Nobody will come to save or assist you.  There will be enough who will snap, never mind all the ordinary citizens who will do so when they realize they and their families were conned into taking an action that is now going to result in certain death.

Every single one of the celebrities, physicians, drug company executives and politicians has literally bet their life, the lives of their family members and our entire civil society that they're right and this risk, which is very real, will not occur.

If it happens economic and social order collapse will be effectively instantaneous and there will be nothing anyone can do about it.

This is not an "odds-on" risk but it is a real risk and you have to be flat-out insane to be so damned arrogant as to not categorically, scientifically and publicly exclude, with 100% certainty, such a possibility before any mass-use of a vaccine for a disease that kills 0.15% or less of the people who get it and for which we have effective intervention therapies.

From the reading I've done on both coronaviruses generally and the previous failed vaccine attempts for coronaviruses I gave this one chance in ten which is outrageously high given the outcome if we roll that "1".

Again, excluding that risk is why it takes 10 years to qualify and license vaccines and why trial sizes are typically limited to no more than a couple of thousand volunteers until that time has passed and those risks can be absolutely excluded.

We didn't do that this time around and if we pay for our arrogance exactly no part of our civil society will survive.

Mother Nature is called "Mother" for a reason, and I suspect you know damn well what the word you will utter after "mother" will be if and when this happens.

I pray I'm wrong on this one.

How's my record thus far on this virus against Fauci, Birx, Trump, Biden and others?

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User Info The Foolish Bet We've Both Allowed And Made in forum [Market-Ticker]
Posts: 1920
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Non paywall link to the natgeo article.
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Incept: 2015-02-20

New Zealand
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Top tier doom porn. 100%

We are going to roll that 1 eventually.
Posts: 254
Incept: 2010-07-06

Ceciltucky, Maryland
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My wife fervently believes all the info vomited out by the Commie News Network. She was pumped and excited to get both shots. I will retire rather than take the shot. Efforts to get her to read an article like this are met with I dont read conspiracy theory and extreme insults.

I am done with the insults and hatred from my wife and other Karens. If this vaccine kills 90% of the population, so be it. It least the hateful voices shrieking conspiritard will be silent.

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Unfree State of MN
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This scene comes to mind.

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Im reading some of this wrong I believe. From what I can gather (Thank you Karl) If a Human gets the vaccine, they "ruin" their immune systems for ADE and more virulent strains, since this is not a true vaccine, I.E. no sterilizing immunity. regards to what happens with Marek's disease in chickens...for the non vaxxed population it seems they are at much higher risk now due to virulence. Is that the SAME thing which will happen in humans with COVID?

What I currently understand is that non vaxxed humans (and specifically those who have beaten COVID-19) will NOT be subject to ADE since their immune systems are what fought off COVID and they DO NOT have COVID spiked proteins from these vax's running around their bloodstreams. They would fight off a more virulent strain as they did the first one with minor symptoms or be asymptomatic.

Am I wrong? Or am I confusing some things?

"Alas, alas, that great city of Babylon, that mighty city! for in one hour thy judgment come"
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@Handyone55 - I live in Harford county, looks like you live in Cecil, kinda of makes us neighbors. I can relate, my wife who is a pharmacist, has never gotten the flu shot. For whatever reason, she got the jab. Two of my three kids have gotten the jab. All over my warnings. I have two family members who are a doctor and the other a PhD in Nursing, both recommened the jab even though they acknowledge you are far more likely to die in a car accident than from Covid if healthy. At least my wife is starting to see the BS in Covid, problem is she got the jab. You cannot untake the jab.

We are seeing our own demise and the need to learn Chinese. If ADE does not get us with this jab, it will from a future jab. No doubt they will play this card again. China just salivating at all the living space in North America.

"Power, like the reproductive muscle, longs to be exercised, often without judgement or right" - Gerry Spence
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East Tennessee
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Pilot: Non-vaxed MAY be at higher risk if a more virulent strain pops up. They are NOT subject to ADE though.

It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
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Nothing to worry about. Just cull the animals and start over just like the chickens.

From all the inputs I have been taking in I estimate the possibility of a bad outcome at 100%. I find it fascinating to listen to the different experts. While often they do not agree with each other on the path most end up concluding the covid vaccines are going to cause a disaster. Dr Bhakdi said "You are going to go to your doom."

The major concerns are dangerous variants, ADE, autoimmune diseases, and infertility.

The official plan to deal with variants appears to be an endless series of booster shots. People's reactions to these shots could get worse with each round. Each shot could be dramatically increasing the risk of autoimmune issues. Possibly each round increases the chance of ADE. I was amused by the Ben Stein video where he said the second shot made him incredibly sick, but he was glad he took it. I would like to see his face when he is told the vaccine is ineffective and he needs to go get a third shot.

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A True American Patriot!
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@Pilot -- We do not know. That's the thing with mutations; they're random. Natural selection is real and the reason viruses tend to mutate to more-easily spread and less-virulent is that this is the path that leads them to be more "successful" -- that is, they spread more-widely.

Anything you do that tampers with this raises the odds of a very bad thing happening, where ordinarily the odds of that very bad thing approach zero.

The same is true for bacteria, as we've repeatedly discovered. We have C.diff and MRSA to thank for this, along with multi-drug resistant tuberculosis. All three are breakthrough bacteria that WE are responsible for creating; natural evolutionary pressures PREVENT such things from happening, but when humans do stupid things and put partial pressure on an organism and incentivize bad outcomes you get bad outcomes.

Exactly THE SAME THING happens when you pay people to poop out kids with no fathers in the house; you get more of them.

That which you incentivize you get more of. When you put your finger on the scale that's the direction natural processes trend. Evolution tends toward smarter, more-survivable organisms VIA THE HARD WAY; the less-capable DIE. When it comes to viruses the more-virulent strains tend to lose the evolutionary lottery because humans will shun someone who is visibly and violently ill. Unless a virus finds another host before it kills the previous one THAT SPECIFIC STRAIN IN THAT SPECIFIC PERSON FAILS. Making that person's infection STILL HAPPEN but removing the visible illness PROPAGATES the bad strain instead of suppressing it. That's ****ING STUPID. When you have a virus family that has a HISTORY of evasion and ADE against vaccination NOT EXCLUDING THAT WITH 100% CERTAINTY is putting a gun in your mouth and pulling the trigger without knowing if its empty. It MIGHT not have a round in the chamber.... but that's the bet.

This does not mean that ONE SPECIFIC monster (whether human, bacterial or viral) will show up when you put that finger on the scale. But it DOES mean that statistically-speaking you are going to get more monsters than you otherwise would.

I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
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If you are not over 75 with co-morbidities, and in relatively good shape in general, there is a lot to be said for holding off on getting "vaccinated."

Geert Vanden Bossche, DVM, PhD, has been sounding very credible alarm bells about administering non-sterilizing "vaccines" during a pandemic. My concern is that the spike protein "vaccines" were designed for one purpose, to block the binding of the spike protein to the ACE2 receptor. And so in viral neutralization assays, which measure the effect of this blocking in vitro, the antibodies induced by the "vaccine" would seem to work.

Of course, immunizing someone to a limited representation of the virus (the spike protein is only 13% of the total viral proteome) opens up the possibility of immune escape via spike protein mutations. The odds of immune escape go down when you have a broader immune response to the entire viral proteome, as much more of the virus has to be mutated to allow escape, not just the spike protein.

Certainly there are plausible concerns for and against these "vaccines." We just don't have all of the data yet, as these were rushed out. What is certain, however, is that mRNA "vaccine" recipients are the unwitting subjects in in vivo animal experiments. It is prudent to weigh the risks, for sure. Your body, your choice.
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Marek's disease is that bad now?

As a kid, I raised chickens. We knew it was around, but since we typically had less than a 1000 head at any given time it wasn't a big deal.

Now, Costco farms are raising logarithmic mean more at a time.

My late grandfather had a bunch of old animal husbandry books. They would talk about the max number of animals a farm should be allowed to have. Why? To many and any disease outbreak is to hard to keep ahead of. Now they intensively farm so many heads together it is impossible to keep them disease free. So you dose the animals up and hope for the best.

It doesn't work. Eventually you get a bug that wipes you out. Dad rolled the dice, and lost eventually on that. A few of those COSTCO farms had it happen. Tyson had it happen.

That same book is one reason I decided to leave big cities.
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@purplefang -- they're already talking about a "booster" within a year:

It's almost like "they" are trying to produce the worst outcome smiley

We didn't love freedom enough. And even more we had no awareness of the real situation.... We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.
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Vandiver, AL
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Thanks again, @Tickerguy for all your effort here. I'm amazed you keep at it but am thankful you do.

Thought I'd share an exchange from Facebook this morning. The local TV station I most frequent for local news posted "will you take the vaccine?" and I responded with your compilation article by the other day. You can see the response I got. Frustrating. But I still share from time to time in hopes that others will see it an become informed unlike that brick wall. But, man, it's hard to see such willful ignorance.

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This is not an "odds-on" risk but it is a real risk

A worse nightmare scenario I can imagine is that it does not happen and in ten years time the USSA becomes as unfree as the PDRK.
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I suspect that a **** ton of unpublished research has been done looking into how to create a Mareks like disease in human populations. I can totally see how a group of dedicated scientists would be willing to conduct this work believing that it was their solemn duty to save humanity from itself. Like it or not, were all trial participants now. 1/10? Damn thats bad.
Posts: 8729
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Surf City/Sloop point, NC
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@Tickerguy, you may need to Update your #'s in this PSA..

CDC: 2,050 DEAD Following COVID Vaccines as 300+ Deaths Added This Week 16 Deaths from New J&J Shot Producing COVID Symptoms

Recorded deaths following the experimental COVID vaccines continued to soar this week as the CDC added more data today into the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), a U.S. Government funded database that tracks injuries and deaths caused by vaccines.

While the information contained in VAERS is publicly available information, the corporate media continues to censor it, and anyone who dares to publish publicly available information from the U.S. Government is labeled as fake news by the fact checkers.

The data released by the CDC today goes through March 19, 2021, with 44,606 recorded adverse events, including 2,050 deaths following injections of the experimental COVID vaccines.


There are now 1,107 adverse events including 16 deaths reported following the third experimental COVID vaccine to be granted emergency use authorization (EUA) by the FDA at the end of February, the Johnson and Johnson Janssen COVID vaccine.

Tables & Charts, (and source links), in the Link provided..

I've no more ****s to Give, because, It was a republic if you could keep it at all, We lost, RIP #Merica

HOLD MY BEER! [beer]
Where's Kyle Rittenhouse when U need Him?
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A one-in-ten chance of killing 50 million people? Good lord. We deserve what's coming. I now consider my allergies to be lucky, because they should act as a legitimate out if my employer tries a mandate.

It's all so tiring. A part of me just wants to drop off and stop caring because it wears on me, but it's like seeing a train wreck. I can't help but stand and stare. And if I call 911 and tell them the train derailed, they call me a conspiracy theorist and tell me to board it like a good little citizen.

Every day that passes the chances of me dying outside of a bed go up and up. All I want is to live free. I don't think it's too much to ask from my fellow man, but apparently others feel different. I can only wish I'd have been born earlier.

I'm Team Virus. It Deserves to Win.

The World is Quiet Here
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I was assuming that the full court press on the vaccine was just a combination of incompetence, greed, control, and institutional momentum. You can decide which percentage of each it is, I don't know and I'm not sure that's all there is to it anymore. In any event, I want no part in this mass experiment. I wish I could just get a damn injection of the virus and get natural immunity.

I also get nervous as hell that they're talking vaccine passports. Wonder if they're going to try to emulate the system they have in Israel? I'm sure that could *never* be abused by the .gov and end poorly /sarc/.

Once you realize what a joke everything is, being the Comedian is the only thing that makes sense.
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North Dakota
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Does anybody have any real stats on the supposed 'resurgence' of Covid in various countries and or US States? Have these folks been given the covid 'vaccination' shot?
Posts: 234
Incept: 2014-09-24

SW Ohio
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@Augeries "I can only wish I'd have been born earlier."

Curious as to your generation.

Wifey and I (both Boomers, '55 & '56) often reflect, as these days seem to grow darker and darker, and a look at all that appears to loom ahead, that we were lucky to have grown up in the 60s and 70s.

God how it has changed...not at all what it was then...

I am ashamed for the young that may only know misery, that may never have children because it appears insane to do so when taking serious looks at present and future prospects for much that we took for granted, like jobs that support a family, and the like.

This happened/is happening because so few of us cared enough to try to put a halt on what some saw coming way off in the distance, back when we were in shape to do battle-as in the Battle of Athens, McMinn County, TN-against the corrupt/criminals running our governments and large industry.

As for gloomy events coming our way, we only have ourselves, to one degree or another, to blame...


Thanks Karl, your efforts are appreciated.

There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.

-Soren Kierkegaard
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I would think you could correlate the 'resurgence' to the unrestrained importation of Covid positive illegals currently swarming the border and being bussed and flown into the interior to God knows where.
Posts: 176
Incept: 2009-04-18

Pickled in the brine of futility
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...if we pay for our arrogance exactly no part of our civil society will survive.

As far as I'm concerned, Bring It.
Like Crossthread quotes above, I have no more f***s to give either at this point.
None of this was accidental. You will never be able to convince me otherwise.

"We must overcome the fear; we must stare it down and power through it. We have no choice." - K. Denninger 4/3/20
Posts: 738
Incept: 2016-02-11

Pacific Northwest
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@handy-- You cannot convince anybody to change their mind on a disease that is so politicized. I've been wearing a mask professionally for thirty years, and I get people lecturing me on them all the time. Some jackhole was annoyed I wasn't wearing two. **** that and **** him.

If the worst outcome of the shot is realized, .gov and their water carriers in the press will just blame the anti-vaxxers, who are mainly Republican and Christian. "If everybody was protected by getting the vax, this horrible outbreak would never have happened." "It's horrible all these kids are suffering awful health issues from the shot, but it is better than having them all dead from Covid." Etc.

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The next couple of months will be interesting for COVID19 vaccine adverse events as millions of younger people will be getting jabs. It is one thing to just glibly say that Hank Aaron died peacefully in his sleep a couple of weeks after the jab but if younger people mysteriously start dying this could change pretty quickly.

I thought travel would open up this year but I'm not so sure now. Seems like pretty clear evidence out of Orlando that fully vaccinated people are getting and spreading COVID19. There is also the new Brazil strain that appears to be significantly more dangerous to younger people.
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