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2021-02-12 07:47 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 2255 references Ignore this thread
The People Should Be Skeptical*
[Comments enabled]

No, really?

About 1 in 3 Americans say they definitely or probably won’t get the COVID-19 vaccine, according to a new poll that some experts say is discouraging news if the U.S. hopes to achieve herd immunity and vanquish the outbreak.

I wonder why they're skeptical?

Maybe it's because those so-called "experts" are lying right then and there.

We must use vaccines to have "hope" of achieving herd immunity?

We already have herd immunity.

What does this look like?

 

Sure looks like herd immunity to me and it wasn't due to vaccines -- the peak occurred before any person had the shots and today we are just reaching the first people who have (1) had both shots and (2) waited the requisite 14 days for antibodies to build protection.

Yet the case rate is down by approximately 75% and hospitalization is down by more than half, with hospitalization peaking almost exactly two weeks later as expected.  Deaths are reported late (not back-dated to "date of") and will shortly start falling as well.

Let's go down the litany of lies, because if you expect people to believe the vaccines are "safe and effective" when pronounced by these very same experts then they must account and pay for their previous lies and the harm those lies have done.

  • "15 days to slow the spread"; it is now nearly a year later and we have not released the alleged "mitigations" that were claimed would control the pandemic.  The original two weeks turned into six of a near-complete lockdown in most of the nation.

  • "Asymptomatic transmission"; there is no science behind this.  Never once in the history of an epidemic has asymptomatic transmission been of any material consequence.  Oh, it happens, but very rarely.  peer reviewed paper in NATURE failed to find one such documented case with Covid-19 across 10 million people.  Yet it is the entire premise of mass-actions including mask orders, lockdowns, mass-testing of those without any sign of disease, business and school closures.  There is zero hard science supporting that premise; it is entirely made up based on computer models.  In addition to there being no hard science behind it the premise is mathematically implausible due to viral replication being exponential.

  • "Its all droplets"; Yes, it most-certainly was "droplets" between apartments in Hong Kong and China separated by ten floors with people who did not know each other, but who shared sinks and toilets on the same vertical drain line without P-traps.  The near-certainty that fecal transmission is part of the problem has been known since March of 2020 and deliberately ignored.  Further, that aerosol transmission was implicated in a meat-packing plant where they were able to sequence and trace the index case in Germany has also been ignored on purpose for the simple reason that if either is in play then none of the "NPI" interventions can possibly work.  Oh, golly gee, over time the data has proved that they don't work.

  • "Masks work"; No they don't -- the data is clear.  But the previous lie is utterly essential to this one, so it was maintained.  Never mind that the entire premise of masks can't work for anything other than gross (and very visible) sized spittle.  We've known this for 40 years as hard science via random controlled trial and there are zero controlled trials that have found otherwise.  An attempt to do so during Covid-19 had its publication deliberately interfered with because it did not show that masks worked (the Danish trial) with multiple journals refusing to publish the study not due to claimed problems with the study but because they did not agree with the results; specifically, the confidence interval spread raised the possibility that masks might actually increase infections.  Again: There has never been a single random controlled trial that has shown statistical evidence that common cloth, paper or surgical masks interrupt transmission of viral disease and there are multiple such trials that show they're worthless or may actually be harmful.  Oh, don't just believe me on the last three points -- read here too.

  • "Masks are better than vaccines"; Stated in sworn testimony by Dr. Redfield, the CDC's Director in September, with a plea for the people to wear them for 4, 6, or 8 weeks and the promise that if we did the pandemic would be under control.  Virtually the entire nation was in fact under such a mandate at the time and compliance in most areas was 90%+.  Less than one month after that statement was made the winter spike began reaching more than triple the case and hospitalization rate in virtually every state and locale irrespective of mandates.  Obviously that statement was false.  You now want people to believe that, given this recent and proximate false statement that anything else from the same organization about safety and effectiveness is true?

  • "The vaccines underwent extensive testing and are known safe";  Oh really?  They were not tested in (1) pregnant women, (2) old, medically frail people and (3) those who previously had Covid-19; all three were excluded from the trials.  Also excluded from the trials were children under 18.  VARES says 453 people have died associated with one (or both) Covid-19 shots as of the end of January.  The same query for seasonal flu vaccines (all of the sub-types selectable) from August of last year to now returns 20 deaths associated with flu vaccines.  By the CDC's own data the Covid-19 vaccines are twenty times as likely to be associated with your death as the seasonal flu shot and that is with incomplete administration for Covid; this year's flu shot round has all been administered by now.  Adjusting for a roughly 30% prevalence of flu vaccination, which is a decent guess, it appears the Covid-19 vaccines are somewhere between one hundred and two hundred times as likely to kill you as is the flu shot.  The varicella (Chicken Pox) vaccine over its entire period of administration has recorded only 161 associated deaths over nearly 30 years of use with just ONE death in 2020.   Does this, on a comparative basis, sound "safe" to you?  Further, the CDC refuses to commit to these vaccines producing sterilizing immunity because they did not require it to grant the EUA at the FDA which is why they refuse to tell you that you can discard the masks and distancing after being vaccinated.  Vaccines that do not produce sterilizing immunity are dangerous to the population as a whole even if they provide personal benefit.  In short it is entirely possible we are jabbing people with something dangerous to others and we are deliberately giving those jabs without knowing if this is true.

  • "Vaccines have a long and successful safety record"; True in the general case and irrelevant to this specific case.  The commonly used vaccines all have decades-long safety records and were fully tested in a process that typically takes at least five years -- and often more than ten years.  The Chicken Pox (varicella) vaccine took nearly 20 years to be certified. Further, vaccines that use whole killed or attenuated virus are well-understood and produce the same immune response as an actual infection does, minus the nasty infection consequences because they are the same thing.  This path was not used to produce vaccines for Covid-19 because coronaviruses have repeatedly proved to be unable to be safely vaccinated against via this path and in animal trials have killed the animals that received the shots when later infected by the same agent, likely due to natural mutations that potentiate ADE.  We do not know if the approach taken with these shots is safe over the intermediate and longer term because we were in a big hurry to get them out there rather than fully test them and thus did neither the animal trials nor did we take the several years it takes to find out in small test populations in humans.

  • "There are no safe and effective treatments"; This is flat-out false.  Both HCQ and Ivermectin (in particular the latter) are known safe having been used for decades in humans.  Both are also effective although once again Ivermectin appears to be wildly superior.  Then there's budesonide, which a Texas doctor claimed to have near-100% results with and also wasn't looked at because once again -- it's cheap and now has a study out in peer review that showed it was 90% effective.  These have been intentionally not trialed over the previous year by public health authorities and the state of both being safe has been lied about repeatedly by physicians and health officials because the EUA process for vaccines or any other drug requires that there be no safe and effective alternative.  In other words hundreds of thousands of people in the US were intentionally denied safe and likely effective treatments so as to make possible the accelerated rollout of these vaccines and roughly 300,000 of the 400,000+ dead expired as a result of intentionally-withheld treatments with decades-long safety records that might have prevented said deaths.  You now want to tell people after killing close to half a million in the US that your "alternative" is safe and effective and expect to be believed?

  • "The death reports are honest and the vaccines will stop it"; Oh really?  The CDC illegally changed the means of recording death causes in March of 2020 after using the previous methodology for decades including across multiple epidemics and pandemics.  As a government agency the OMB, PRA and APA legal requirements all apply to the CDC; all require written justification and a comment period.  These very requirements are why many of Trump's E/Os and unilateral changes were struck down in court; it was not that he did not have the authority but that irrespective of an E/O no agency can sidestep those requirements in implementing the changes.  The same is true here yet the CDC deliberately tampered with death certificate reporting without going through that procedure and by doing so made disentangling their change impossible as you cannot compare the two methodologies.  Are all 400,000+ of these deaths actually from Covid19?  We know that claim is false since there are over 14,000 deaths by suicide, poisoning and accident claimed in their own data set to be "caused" by Covid!  How many more are not really caused by Covid19?  We do not know; the CDC deliberately destroyed the very basis of public health reporting by changing the rules just for this specific condition.  The Florida House of Representatives investigated this set of circumstances and found that a huge percentage of alleged "Covid" deaths were not factually classifiable as being caused by Covid-19.  While is is clear that there was more death in 2020 what is not clear nor separable as a direct consequence of these reporting changes is how much of it was actually from Covid-19 and how much of it was caused by government mandates in the form of suicides, drug overdoses, deferred medical care and similar.

How much more do you need?

Were I at specific risk might I find that the vaccines, despite the lack of testing, intermediate and long-term data and the fact that they are using an approach never before attempted in humans to evade a known risk with coronavirus vaccines that might kill me, to be worth it for myself in an individual capacity? 

Perhaps.

But for people without specific morbidity factors there is no way you can justify the shot on a comparative risk basis.  VARES says 453 people are dead associated with these shots as of the end of January.  The CDC claims that roughly 13 million Americans have received at least one dose as of the end of January.  That's a death rate of 0.00003, or statistically identical to the risk of dying from Covid-19 if you do not have any of the listed specific co-morbidities.  Note that while VARES reporting does not prove that shot is the cause of the result neither does being called a Covid-19 death prove that Covid was the cause of the result either by the CDC's own admission in their own data.

May I note again for those of you who can't be bothered to read that Chicken Pox, which in children has a death risk approximately equal to Covid-19, that is, roughly 4/100,000 (Covid-19 is about 3/100,000), has a vaccine that took roughly 20 years to be certified.  Over the last roughly 30 years of use the varicella vaccine has recorded a total of 161 associated deaths in VARES with just ONE DEATH in all of 2020.  Yet in less than two months for a disease with the same risk profile in healthy individuals the Covid-19 vaccines have recorded a stunning 453 associated deaths which is NEARLY THREE THOUSAND TIMES GREATER RISK OF DEATH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COVID 19 VACCINES THAN THAT FOR THE VARICELLA SHOT OVER A COMPARABLE PERIOD OF TIME.

The pharmaceutical industry would never be able to get a vaccine for any other condition through "full approval" in non-morbid individuals if the risk of dying from the vaccine was equivalent to the risk of dying if you got the infection.  If the Chicken Pox vaccines killed 3,000 kids a year there would be an uproar and the CDC would have been sacked and the earth on which it stood salted with diesel fuel years ago.  Yet that is exactly what the data from the CDC's own databases show for these Covid vaccines if you do not have any of the specific known morbid factors.

It is abundantly clear that these shots are not approvable for other than at-risk population segments on the basis of the CDC's own data known and published alone and in addition are several thousand times as dangerous as the shot for Chicken Pox and roughly 100 times as dangerous as a flu shot.  What's worse is that unlike the Chicken Pox shot these shots are presumed to be an annual thing so the risk is not taken once it is taken once per year.

Again note that this death rate for the disease itself is without widespread use of Ivermectin or HCQ in the United States.  With it the death rate may be materially lower.  Additionally Israel apparently has uncovered a compound that has no serious side effect risk in their trials and is 100% effective. They are proceeding to Phase III trials with this compound, and since it's not a vaccine mutations will not evade it unlike vaccines which will likely be evaded by natural viral mutation.  But what is clear thus far is that for people without any such co-morbidity the vaccinations are approximately equally dangerous as infection, if you the take the shot the risk is certain but infection is not certain and as a result the shot is more dangerous than the risk of exposure to the disease in persons without one or more of those comorbid factors.

Skepticism is, in other words, quite-clearly warranted on nothing more than the CDC's own data, and that ignores all of the previous lies told by government and other public-health agencies back to last March.

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Flappingeagle
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Has this site been widely circulated here? My apology if it has. https://c19vitamind.com/

Sung along with Monty Python; Im a skep-tic and Im OK,

Flap

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S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Chromehill
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Regarding the vaccine. My wife is 53 (she is a pharmacist) has had both shots of the Moderna vaccine, without issue. She recently had 5 co-workers all get the second shot of Moderna on the same day, the next day 4 of the co-workers were too sick to work.

I agree with Karl, unless you are at risk, I would not get the vaccine. My wife got the vaccine because she was concerned it would be mandated for health care workers, she wanted to avoid the rush. I urged she not get the vaccine and told her you are a participating in a phase III safety trial.

My 77 year old father had Covid, took 2 to 3 weeks to fully recover, had a mild headache, fatigue and his taste was screwed up (hot foods were amplified). He required zero medical intervention, my brother is a doctor who lives close to my father. A guest at my parents house infected my father. My mother was also exposed to the guest and obviously my father, she did not get Covid, tested multiple times.

Both of my parents take the EVMS prophylaxis. I assume my mother is immune.

Based on all this information, no way in hell am I taking a vaccine with zero long term safety trials. Especially when I have a family member who is immune and my 77 year old father survived without medical intervention and I am healthier than him. They do not know if the vaccine prevents you from getting Covid or transmitting it, it may lessen the severity.

If there is an 80% chance I have reaction so severe that I cannot work, F**k that. I will take my chances.

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Loonster
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Quote:
"Its all droplets"; Yes, it most-certainly was "droplets" between apartments in Hong Kong and China separated by ten floors with people who did not know each other, but who shared sinks and toilets on the same vertical drain line without P-traps.


I'm not confident that this statement is 100% correct. It is my understanding that they had non-functional P-Traps in the floor drains. P-Traps require water to work, and if a drain goes unused for a significant period of time, the water evaporates. Floor drains are rarely maintained. The recommended solution was to pour water down the drain once a month.

... but I also may be getting my studies mixed up. I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese construction techniques are that poor. Overall the conclusion is the same: It travels on pooparticles.
Kokobeware
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positive propaganda being pushed ...

https://www.timesofisrael.com/hmo-sees-o....
Tickerguy
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@Loonster -- Nope; in these two SPECIFIC buildings the SINKS were directly connected to the vertical drain stacks with no P-Traps.

Why? Probably because the P-trap cost $5 and they didn't spend it.

I'm not kidding you -- that sort of bull**** is common there.

Why hasn't it happened HERE in the US? Because we actually enforce code and prevent that sort of crap (literally) from happening.

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Radiosity
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Now you know why it's being made mandatory not by government fiat, but through social pressure, propaganda, and requiring the vaccine to travel, work, shop, or otherwise live your life. They know a huge percentage simply won't take it unless forced.

There are already vaccine passports in the works here in the UK. America ain't gonna be far behind, not with Beijing Biden at the helm (or rather, his handlers at the helm).
Happytrails
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One of our members posted that the vaccine is an obedience test. I would say it is also an intelligence test.
Fumei
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That ****e was exemplified by the Kowloon Walled City
It was finally razed in 1994.
However, similar dodgy buildings are found throughout Hong Kong to this day. Expensive and newer residential and commercial buildings are well-built, but they are not the majority of buildings there.
Loonster
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Must be different articles. This is the one I read: https://www.info.gov.hk/info/sars/pdf/am....

They claim it was dry u drains and a crack in the vent pipe in Block E... Note the "gov.hk". It wouldn't surprise me if the exact details were changed to save face.

A short documentary on Chinese Ethics:

The city is Shenzhen, which is a wealthy city like Hong Kong. Hell, this could also be a fomite of transmission for so many diseases. (The cooking of **** should kill the virus, but there is likely cross contamination between cooked and uncooked ****). Maybe the virus was spread in bat soup after all...
Jcneall
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Houston
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I think theres a typo. Shouldnt it be March 2020, not March 2000 when the means for reporting deaths was made?
Radiosity
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@HappyTrails - you ever heard of a concept called The Great Filter? It's a relative of the Fermi Paradox, and it's the theory that every civilisation advanced enough to be thinking of galactic colonisation must first pass The Great Filter test.

It could take any form, depending on the species in question and how they developed, right down to the most basic **** like 'did this world have liquid water for life to even exist?', but in our case... I'd say we're sitting the test right now, and failing miserably.

Further reading, if interested:

https://astronomy.com/news/2020/11/the-g....
Scottj175
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Great Ticker. I'm spreading this one around a bunch.

Tickerguy
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@Jcneall - Fixed, thanks.

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Badatusernames
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I wonder if part of the high CV-19 jab death count is due to the lower life expectancy of the population getting said gene therapy. I don't remember if it was this forum or a different one that someone said the LTCF they worked at, they were giving the therapy to people with only hours left to live in order to increase their vaccination rate. I'm guessing it was to look good for regulators? Do LTCFs give the flu vaccine to a good percentage of thier residents, as a rule? Granted, I would hope the last minute vaccination didnt make it to VAERs, since everyone expected that person to die. Even if this is a factor, I don't think it would be substantial enough to negate the point. But I do wonder.

On the other hand, we have a year of Covid death data and just a few months of VAERs reporting, so the risk of death is probably higher for the gene therapy. (I can't bring myself to call this a vaccine.)
Tickerguy
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@Badatusernames - As a matter of policy every person who resides in a LTCF gets the flu vaccine every year. They do it for good reason; it IS safe and those people are at WILDLY elevated risk from the flu compared with healthy adults.

You CAN opt out (I've had two relatives in said facilities in my lifetime) but unless the resident or their responsible party (if they have a medical power of attorney and are incompetent themselves) affirmatively does so every one of them gets the shot every year, usually in September or early October.

Ever time.

Yet THIS year only 20 deaths were associated with (not proved to be caused by) said shots.

I NEVER get the flu shot because the DATA is that repeated vaccination against the flu causes it to lose effectiveness, and I'm not materially at risk. I might want to take the shot when I'm 80, and I'd prefer it ACTUALLY WORK at full strength rather than be attenuated in its effectiveness due to my unwarranted use of it earlier in life.

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Badatusernames
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@TG

Thank you for your response.

Wow! So that probably means that MORE LTCF residents got the flu jab than the CV jab. What a ****ing cluster **** this is! I wish we had a media that would report the truths you drop every day here. I think the resistance needs to be local and non-violent. As far as I can see violence would just bring the boot down.
Tickerguy
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Yep.

At this point the data is that the flu jab is 20x LESS likely to kill a LTCF resident than the Covid jab, and the Covid jab hasn't been given to all the LTCF residents at this point, while the flu jab effectively has and is every single year -- thus the actual risk is almost-certainly HIGHER than the data shows.

Note that the deaths are ASSOCIATIONS, not proved as causal -- in BOTH cases. VARES is a report of ASSOCIATED events, NOT PROVED CAUSED events.

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Flappingeagle
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The Great Filter discussion is an interesting one. When I read articles like that one I think that they commingle two separate concepts too easily. Staying on your homework and building transmitters and receivers is totally separate from colonizing other worlds. The first one is "easy" the second one is damn hard.

The easiest part of the second one is to colonize another planet in your solar system, if there is one worth colonizing. I do not think we have one worth colonizing. Without some stupendous breakthroughs in physics I do not see us colonizing planets in other solar systems; it is just too ****ing far to go.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Radiosity
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@Flap - Not necessarily true on the planets front. Start thinking of other orbital bodies and there's at least one potential in Europa, and potentially one or more of the other moons orbiting Saturn/Jupier.

As for other solar systems... eh, warp travel is theorised as being possible, IF we can work out the energy requirements, which is where the main problem lies. Fusion ain't going to cut it, and we're still a LONG way off even managing that much.

Suspended animation/cryo freezing is also a possibility for sleeper ships, or the other alternative over the long term is generation ships. But they still come back to the same fundamental problems of figuring out how to survive that long in space (radiation build-up, breakdowns, general maintenance, illness, gravity and bone mass, etc).

So while the means are potentially there, given time and maybe a few technological breakthroughs... yeah, you're probably right that we're stuck here.

Maybe if we killed all the politicians and media *******s who keep fanning the flames of division and actually started working together as a species for once, we'd have a chance.

I don't see that happening *shrug*

And let's be brutally honest here, after all we've seen of humanity's stupidity in just the last year, do we WANT to spread that crap to elsewhere in the galaxy? Heh.
Flappingeagle
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Quote:
Not necessarily true on the planets front. Start thinking of other orbital bodies and there's at least one potential in Europa, and potentially one or more of the other moons orbiting Saturn/Jupier.


Here's a question I do not know the answer to; how close to 1G gravity are they?

Flap

----------
Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Redjack
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Badatusernames

When my father was in hospice, he got the shot on Wednesday, and died on Friday. Not because of the shot, nothing could have stopped his death at that point, but it was wasted.

Mom had even requested to have him skipped, and they gave it anyway.
Scottj175
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Vandiver, AL
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Quote:
Note that the deaths are ASSOCIATIONS, not proved as causal -- in BOTH cases. VARES is a report of ASSOCIATED events, NOT PROVED CAUSED events.


Amen. Correlation is not causation. Unless you're a so-called expert pushing man-caused climate change or universal masking or lockdowns, etc.
Chromehill
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@badatusernames - one possible cause for the higher Covid vaccine deaths could be the simple fact that it does not take much to finish off someone who is old and frail. My father-in-law is 88, when it comes to comorbidities it is easier to say he never had cancer because he has just about anything else you think of. My wife the pharmacist is well aware of the side effects and death rate from the vaccine.

When discussing whether her father should get the vaccine, we are taking into account that it could very well result in his death. If he gets covid and is not immune to it, he is dead. If he gets the vaccine, it could kill him (great choice here). When healthy people are getting knocked on their asses for several days after the vaccine, no surprise an old and frail person dies from it.

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"Power, like the reproductive muscle, longs to be exercised, often without judgement or right" - Gerry Spence
Radiosity
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@Flap - Substantially lower, given the moon is about 1/4 the size and mass of Earth. There are plenty of other problems with Europa, which is why I'd suggest a colony on a space station rather than directly on the moon itself. Still difficult, but easier to solve than all the **** you'd have to deal with living on the surface :)

As much as I dislike Wikipedia, there's a good page about this subject there if you're interested in the challenges we'd face:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonizati....

And for comparison of Earth vs Europa, NASA's own site has a handy tool for that:

https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupit....
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