Again, By The Math - Covid 'Dangers'
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2021-02-09 07:21 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 534 references Ignore this thread
Again, By The Math - Covid 'Dangers'
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Fact: Covid is more dangerous to some people than others.

Fact: The "deadly pre-conditions" for Covid are, as defined by the NYC Coroner, "diabetes, lung disease, cancer, immunodeficiency, heart disease, asthma, kidney disease, liver disease and morbid obesity."  Most of those who died had two or more of these conditions and the most-prevalent ones were heart disease, diabetes and chronic kidney disease.  All three are directly linked to lifestyle choices in the vast majority of cases. Only Type I diabetes, which is 5% percent of those with diabetes (and is an autoimmune disorder) is not lifestyle caused.  The others are caused directly by being a fat ass, smoking, a refusal to exercise, stuffing one's face with fast carbohydrates and overconsumption of alcohol.  Heart disease alone kills more than half a million Americans every year and virtually all of it is caused by personal choice.

Fact: Virtually all of the severe and fatal Covid-19 risk is due to lifestyle choices and is nobody else's responsibility.  On the above list only asthma is not caused in the huge majority to nearly all cases by lifestyle decisions.  In other words virtually everyone at severe risk of death from Covid-19 has intentionally and personally abused their body over an extended period of time, knowing full well that what they were doing was dangerous and in fact might kill them.

Fact: In addition we know this disease, as with all respiratory viruses, has a strong link to Vitamin D deficiency.  In fact multiple studies have shown that virtually everyone who gets severe Covid-19 or dies is severely Vitamin D deficient.  Vitamin D deficiency is also a personal choice; you can obtain adequate Vitamin D through outdoor exposure to the sun in the summer months, and through inexpensive supplementation (pennies a day) the rest of the time.  This likely explains the higher severe rate among people of color in that the melanin in their skin requires much more outside exposure to obtain adequate Vitamin D levels and, above certain latitudes, makes it effectively impossible.  We deliberately did not tell people this yet we knew it was true back in the first months of the pandemic.

Fact: Forcing people indoors makes severe Covid-19 more likely rather than less, particularly for those not using Vitamin D supplements simply by keeping them from going outside for ordinary activities.  Lockdowns, school closures, canceling recess and similar is exactly backwards.

Now for some math.

The base risk of death according to the CDC from Covid-19 by age stratification is as follows, by their "best guess":

0-19 years: 3/100,000
20-49 years: 2/10,000
50-69 years: 5/1,000
70+ years: 5.4/100

That is a wildly divergent risk.  To put perspective on this the risk of death from Chicken Pox, which we used to intentionally expose children to (myself included), is somewhere between 2-4/100,000 in children or statistically identical to Covid-19.  This was not a disaster and still is not; the varicella vaccine is in fact only "useful" because, as with Covid, you are more likely to get seriously harmed or killed if you get Chicken Pox when you're older.  In fact, you're 25x more likely.  Therefore, since we have stopped the Chicken Pox parties with crazy "vax everyone for a nearly-harmless disease" instead of only offering the varicella vaccine to those who had not gotten it naturally by the time they reached puberty the only rational decision for a parent is to give their kids the jab because you can no longer take them across the street for natural infection.  Thus my daughter got the jab -- not because I believe it's superior (it's not; both do the same thing) but because by sticking a thumb on the scale and lying to people the government made the math run that direction and there was nothing I could do about it.

By the way there are approximately 60 million children under 19 in the US.  Were every one of them to get Covid-19 we would expect 1,800 deaths.  Every death is sad, but I think you can determine exactly how big a disaster 1,800 dead would be compared against 400,000.

It would appear from the CDC data that age is a monstrous determinant of risk.

But, when you look at the data sets of who dies you find that is an intentionally misleading table on the CDC's web page. In other words they are lying too and doing it on purpose in order to run a panic-porn production rather than inform.

Let's look at the NYC Coroner data and from it determine relative risk weightings for different age brackets based on the consequence of personal choice as detailed above.

The age brackets do not line up exactly but it's close enough.  Further, having followed this table from NYC from April when it first appeared the percentage split has remained consistent, thus the "pending" determinations are not going to skew the resulting ratios to any statistically-significant degree.

From 18-24 through 35-44 the number of dead in the NYC table without one or more of those underlying conditions is 24.  With one or more of them is 610.  Therefore the relative risk is 25x higher if you are a fat-ass, diabetic smoking boozer.

From 45-54 through 65-74 the number of dead in the NYC table without one or more of the conditions is 92.  With one or more it is 8,633.  Therefore the relative risk is 94x higher if you are a fat-ass, diabetic smoking boozer.

From 75+ in the NYC data the total number of dead without one or more of the conditions is FIVE.  With one or more the number is 8,999.  Therefore the relative risk is an utterly astounding 1,800x higher if you are a fat-ass, diabetic smoking boozer.

Now let's derate the CDC "base risk by age" numbers based on personal choice factors because the CDC does not separate it out on purpose and see what happens to the relative risk based on age and thus, whether age is a determinant of risk or whether YOUR PERSONAL CHOICES are responsible for essentially all serious Covid-19 risk.

0.0002 / 25 = 0.000008 which is less than the base risk of an under-19 year old, eight in one million is the risk for a person from 18-44 who is not a fat-ass, diabetic smoking boozer.

0.005 / 94 = 0.00005 or approximately equal to the risk of an under-19 year old, 5/100,000 for a person up to the age of 74 if you are not a fat-ass, diabetic smoking boozer.

0.054 / 1800 = 0.00003 or exactly the same risk of an under-19 year older if you are 75+ and are not and were not a fat-ass, diabetic smoking BOOZER!

In other words on the math using only official government data from both the NYC coroners office and the CDC the entirety of the "excess death" from Covid-19 is almost-entirely due to voluntary lifestyle CHOICES.

AGE -- THAT IS, SOMETHING YOU ARE CERTAINLY NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR AND CANNOT ALTER OR CONTROL, HAS STATISTICALLY NOTHING TO DO WITH YOUR RISK OF COVID-19 KILLING YOU AT ALL.

Absent those lifestyle choices Covid-19 is far less lethal than the common flu; the common flu kills young people and prime-age adults with no morbidities at a higher rate than Covid-19 does.

More importantly let's compare this risk to something nobody thinks a minute about: Driving or riding in a car.

The base 3/100,000, or "30 in a million" per year risk from Covid-19, assuming once you get it your immunity is worthless after 12 months, which we have every reason to believe is complete crap in that you likely have at least partial protection for years into the future, that is, said risk is an annual risk -- is approximately equal to that which you take by traveling 7,500 miles in a car.

The average person in the US travels approximately 13,500 miles a year in an automobile which means that your risk of dying from Covid-19, at a base level if you did not intentionally destroy yourself, is approximately equal to that you accept every six and a half months or so by using an automobile for transportation, either as a driver or passenger.  In other words you take approximately double the base Covid-19 risk of death every single year without batting an eyelash.

VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE EXCESS RISK BEYOND THAT LEVEL IS DUE TO YOUR OWN PERSONAL LIFESTYLE CHOICES.

Had this disease struck in 1918 when almost nobody was a fat-ass diabetic it would have killed statistically nobody.

Worse, all of this is without taking any personal mitigating steps such as using a Vitamin D supplement and, if infected or at high risk and exposed, Ivermectin, while the evidence shows that both are highly effective in either preventing or mitigating the disease.  In fact the evidence is that Ivermectin is equally effective as a vaccine, we have a 30+ year safety record showing fewer side effects and it costs pennies.

JAMA and others have chimed in saying there's "insufficient evidence" and, even worse, "evidence of conflicts of interest."  Ok, so why didn't the NIH run these studies starting back in March?  Neither vitamins or cheap, off-patent medications have a strong profit motive for someone to fork up the few millions of dollars it takes to run a decent, large-scale trial.  Why the hell do we fund non-profit and government organizations like the NIH, Vanderbilt, IHME, Johns Hopkins and similar if they are not going to use their tax supported and/or exempt status to find causal links when a new disease hits and there's no profit motive in private industry doing so with existing potential therapeutics and preventative measures?

Biden knows all this, by the way.  Hours after signing an executive order demanding masks on federal property he himself, who is not a diabetic fat-ass waltzed around the Lincoln Memorial, which is federal property, without wearing a mask.  Then he did it again while signing his "executive orders" and was immediately followed by both his spokeswoman and Fauci, neither of whom wore a mask either.  In other words he knows damn well how this risk stratification actually works and that masks are worthless.

**** all of them and the entire Biden administration sideways; the "administration of truth" has instead doubled down on bull****.

Don't think this is limited to Biden either.  Neither Trump or anyone else was willing to tell the people of this nation the truth: No, you are not healthy at "any size", you are in fact putting yourself at serious risk for disease and death through your own voluntary actions.  Over 600,000 Americans kill themselves every year via heart disease and virtually all of it is caused by lifestyle.

If you were a fat-ass a year ago when Covid first started you've had a year to become less of a fat-ass.  You could have done what I did ten years ago and went from fat-ass in process (and likely diabetic-in process too) to not-fat-ass with completely-normal insulin sensitivity.  My walk down that road took eight months.  For those who say you won't stick to it and the attempt will leave you worse off than if you did nothing here I am ten years later; you're 100% full of crap; that bull**** is nothing more than making excuses for your own personal self-destruction.

You decided to make all of these choices and your decisions and their consequences do not create any obligation of any sort upon anyone else, ever, period.  I am not responsible for your decision to smoke, eat or drink yourself (or both) half to death and I owe you nothing if you do so.

It is a personal choice and I respect your choice but that is where it ends.  Your choice, your ass.  The minute you use the consequences of your personal choice as a cudgel to try to impose mandates on others that demand must and will be refused.

Our government and health care "system" has deliberately refused to discuss both this set of facts and the mitigating steps anyone could and still can take to reduce the risk of Covid-19 and other deadly diseases and conditions, laying the responsibility for each person's personal decisions at the foot of said person.  Instead we claim there is a "collective" responsibility in effect telling me that I have to pay in the form of restricted freedoms and lifestyle because you decided of your own free will to destroy your body.

That position is exactly identical to demanding that if you're an alcoholic and thus might die of DTs I am required to buy your next bottle of Gin with my last $20.

Let me make my position on that perfectly clear in case the above is not sufficient: **** YOU.

PS: If you're not white-hot angry with this bull**** and done with being lied to take a look here.  If masks work -- at all -- come up with a scientific explanation for the reason that Japan has a 24.28 death rate for influenza and pneumonia while the United States has a 10.85 rate.  They wear masks all the damned time and historically speaking we never do yet their rate of influenza and pneumonia death is more than double oursI've been pointing this table out, by the way, since this crap was first run here in the US.  They're lying about masks working too and they all know it.

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Workerbee
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Great article.

Yes, I am pissed too.
Week 2 wearing n95 masks, with most worn improperly. Even those that 'really try' are fogging their glasses. So how's that helping, exactly?
Complete bull****.

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Tickerguy
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Little-understood fact: N95s without exhaust valves will ALWAYS fog glasses. Think not? Go out in the cold winter air with one on and a pair of glasses and get back to me on that.

This of course is proof that they're worthless to stop aerosols being emitted from you, since the fog is just water vapor which, of course, is plenty big enough to carry a virus.

The base problem with a non-valved mask is that it violates the first rule of all filter media: They only work if the flow through them is one way and are almost-completely ineffective otherwise.

VALVED N95s IF properly fit work but only to protect YOU -- for obvious reasons.

The only protection you get otherwise is from gross insults (e.g. large drops that are plainly visible without magnification) and the distribution in breath, coughing and sneezing is inverse-log distributed; that is, there are VASTLY more particles of smaller sizes than larger ones. This is statistically zero of the infectious particles and to make it worse the smaller the particle size the longer it hangs in the air.

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Geckogm
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When I see front page trash like this I want to throw my laptop in the trash. This article glorifies obesity and try destroy common sense. The video is sick twisted ****. WTF? https://www.yahoo.com/news/woman-calls-f....
Heyjackass
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Chicago
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Our analysis of Cook County's data shows the same thing as NY. - older folks with a laundry list of pre-conditions. Very rarely do we see someone under 40. Under 20 is almost unheard of and when those individuals do show up, they are typically stricken with severe pre-existing conditions.

We get the Medical Examiner's report everyday and just for yesterday we see:
- 39 total deaths
- 23 Covid related
- Avg age 75yo
- Age range 64 - 87
- 22 out of the 23 had at least one pre-con
- top pre-cons - heart disease, diabetes, hypertension, COPD, kidney disease & obesity

It's the same story everyday.
Tickerguy
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Yeah @Heyjackass and isn't it interesting that exactly nobody is bringing that forward and raising hell about it?

The average age of death is higher than life expectancy; that is, statistically this thing kills nobody who isn't already dead and further, when it does get you statistically all of the people it gets are people who killed themselves through a lifetime of their own personal decisions!

We all die of something, and for a very large percentage of those people perhaps the price is worth it. That's not for me to say; if you choose to make those decisions as an adult that is absolutely your right to do.

But I have zero responsibility for that decision.

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Kokobeware
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Fascinating synopsis KD.

I'm pretty mellow and nonconfrontational. I've brought up data and alternative treatments (well, I guess they should really be called non-MSM pushed treatments) to all sorts of people. What's intriguing is that the "more educated" the person I'm talking to the more they can't except something other than the narrative and often become hostile.

Those outside the echo chamber of higher "liberal" education are much more willing to listen and investigate on their own. Maybe it's because many of these people have seen their standard of living erode over time and don't trust the government. Dunno.
Annfan
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I live in one of the most highly affected and locked down areas of the country. It also happens to contain one of the Orthodox Jewish communities where there have been some super-spreader scandals in the news and some wrangling and name-calling with the surrounding communities and even state-level gov.
I currently have a remote contract tracing gig with the local health department. Im locked down with school-aged children who cant go to school so Im grateful for the work. I have no prior work history in healthcare or public health.
Despite being less than 1/6 the population of the county, that Orthodox community makes up the vast majority of the cases I see coming into the system on the daily. I also speak to these cases and contacts every day. Were supposed to provide guidance on quarantine and isolation periods, identify and track outbreaks and clusters, assess needs for supporting their isolation, register high risk contacts, etc.
The calls to this community are different from the rest. A typical answer from a parent of an infected child when I ask if they are able to be isolated is an incredulous, no. They simply express no desire or intention to do so. It really does a number on our clunky government computer form. Thing overheats on the regular.

I know once I get a household case there, I can expect to see the rest of the members of the family to come rolling into my buckets over the next few days.

I spoke of what it seems they are doing as akin to the Chicken Pox parties of my day months ago. And why wouldnt they? The average household there contains 5-6 school-aged children. If they isolate the case for 10 days, and THEN every other member of the household has to quarantine for another 14 days, the entire household could effectively be in lockdown for 6 or more months.

Take from that what you will. That community also doesnt tend to consist of many obese, alcoholic chain-smokers either.
Spitcher2
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@ Annfan, How are cases being defined? Are people volunteering to be tested. How many are symptomatic? Do those communities have someone like Dr. Zelenko looking after them?
Annfan
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Jersey Shore
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@Spitcher2 The only cases that come into our system are confirmed positive PCR or antigen tests. I do not know what is prompting them to get tested (many people I speak to have been required to be tested before a medical procedure, or after travel before they return to work or school, for instance.) I would say symptomatic people consist of slightly more than half to 2/3 of people I have spoken to.
I do not know about their medical protocols but they do tend to stay within the confines of their own community for things like medical care.
Im sorry if this was off topic Mr. Tickerguy. On a side note, I did speak to someone (not in that community) who was prescribed Ivermectin in a local hospital - literally the day after the NIH removed it from the not recommended list. He went to the ER with extremely low O2 and trouble breathing and felt great almost immediately - he wasnt even admitted.
Winder
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Good video from a Dr Merrit. Backs up everything Karl says.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mPIomjW....
Flappingeagle
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Has anyone seen any data relative to what happens to mortality when you go from one preexisting condition to two?

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Erroldo
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And so the WHO team just went to further the narrative that virus jumped from animal to man in Wuhan. What else could we expect? Some of the team members already went in supporting the bat to man jump, ignoring the probe that it is likely lab generated. Wonder how how many 000's were on their payoff?
just like wuflu was not a pandemic when it should so the world could have taken action earlier to contain it.
Njca
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Further investigation into the legality of the methods used to create
these strategies raised additional concerns and questions. Why would the CDC decide
against using a system of data collection & reporting they authored, and which has been
in use nationwide for 17 years without incident, in favor of an untested & unproven system
exclusively for COVID-19 without discussion and peer-review? Did the CDCs decision to
abandon a known and proven effective system also breach several federal laws that ensure
data accuracy and integrity? Did the CDC knowingly alter rules for reporting cause of death in
the presence of comorbidity exclusively for COVID-19? If so, why?

COVID-19 Data Collection, Comorbidity & Federal
Law: A Historical Retrospective

Science, Public Health Policy,
and The Law
Volume 2:4-22
October 12, 2020
Kfell
Posts: 158
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New Hampshire
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An email from my daughters 8th grade teacher today...

Good morning,

I have been having to remind Anna a lot lately about social distancing when we are out at recess. Her and a couple of the other girls still get way to close and even bump into each other sometimes. We are still in a level where we have to stay 6 feet apart, and I understand how difficult that is for kids this age! I know she does not do it to purposely go against the rules, I have just been asking her a lot lately and I think a reminder at home about how important it is right now would be greatly appreciated!

She is great in class, and she is a part of a class that can get very distracted and unfocused. She can be silly, but always refocuses when I ask.

Let me know if you have any questions or concerns about how she is doing!

Have a great day,
8th grade teacher

My response...

Hello,

We dont share the same concerns about our kids interacting with each other outside. We have a much greater concern about the kids long term mental health when adults stress them out about a virus that has very little impact on kids Anna age. So i will not be passing along your message. If you have a problem with this, i would be happy to talk to the superintendent on the matter.

Enjoy your day.

It went over like a fart in church.

The principal called me and was sympathetic to my concerns but felt a consistent message was more important. I explained my message was the only consistent one. He ended the conversation by saying he was going to have a conversation with my daughter. Another red pill moment for her...

Lemonaid
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Annfan, yet another coincidence of ivermectin efficacy. smiley

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." Ludwig von Mises
Tickerguy
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@Kell - you forgot this

smiley

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Lemonaid
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Wow. Mind-****ing the next generation.

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." Ludwig von Mises
Scottj175
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Vandiver, AL
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@Kell reminds me of the dust up I had with my son's 3rd grade teacher about using shall rather than should in regard to what we should pack in his lunch and snack.

It was good advice (less sugar) but the shall vs. should mentality just bugged me.

That was a miserable year as she (the teacher) caused us trouble all year long and even tried to push us at ADHD medication.

That was the last year we were in government schools. We went to a private Christian school the next year and a couple years after that homeschool.
Tsherry
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Spokane WA
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Kfell--

Was the teacher promoted from the 8th grade on merit, or due to quotas? I say this as the grammar used is almost 7th grade, not quite 8th.

Consistent messages are part of indoctrination, and quash independence, free will and critical thinking.

I'd be yanking my kid out and home-schooling. In a backyard. With friends, no masks. Unrestricted.
Debtfree2200
Posts: 70
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Anywhere besides the Wuhan Wet market
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The best mask is a polluting plastic grocery bag and a long enough zip tie pulled up tight. Guaranteed to not spread covid.
Indianarube
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Found this on "Not The Bee". This country is SO ****ed. https://notthebee.com/article/people-are....
Jal
Posts: 991
Incept: 2009-03-25

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How to end lockdown.
The following is free, therefore, worthless.

Best covid 19 test Grey hair
Give covid 19 vaccine to everyone with grey hair
Since you cannot get covid19 if you got the vaccine

Therefore this will end the pandemic
Fumei
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'Ob*sity' is too thin. 'ObEEsity' is how it should be spelt, since bigger is better, and the more the merrier.
Ronniemcghee
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Miramar Beach
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Stepwise regression is a wonderful mathematical tool ~

Two thumbs up for your deep dive into the data.

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