The Foolishness on 'Warp Speed'
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Logging in or registering will improve your experience here
Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Considering sending spam? Read this first.

2020-11-21 09:04 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 252 references Ignore this thread
The Foolishness on 'Warp Speed'
[Comments enabled]

Folks, there are simply too many questions that can only be answered through time when it comes to vaccine development.

I wish that was not true but it is true and has nothing to do with money spent; thus, trying to speed up the process by spending more money does exactly nothing -- except potentially waste money and, if you vaccinate people on a mass-basis prior to that time expiring you may severely injure or even kill them if something goes wrong.

This is not to state that something like that will happen, because I have no way to know.  But the reason it takes 5-10 years to license a vaccine is that there are certain risks, specifically ADE, which can show up with any vaccine, that this length of time is required to generate sufficient safety information in modest-size (a few thousand to a few tens of thousands) groups of individuals in order to to know if it is going to happen.

Further, with a disease that rarely does serious harm to healthy people in the original study groups it usually takes 10 or more years to know if the vaccine actually works to prevent those serious harms along with preventing transmission of the virus to others.  A vaccine that does not prevent the serious or fatal cases or does not prevent transmission is worthless; nobody cares if all it does is prevent you from feeling crappy for a day or two and if it does that and doesn't block transmission it may increase infection rates since the persons infected and capable of passing the virus on don't know that they are.  That's worse than worthless; such a vaccine can in fact be harmful!  This is why the varicella (Chicken Pox) vaccine, while invented in the 1970s in Japan was not licensed in the US until 1995.

Chicken pox has almost the same lethality profile for serious outcomes in children as does Covid19.  It is roughly 25x more dangerous in adults.  But because it is so rarely dangerous in children knowing if it stops most infections from becoming symptomatic does not tell you whether or not the vaccine actually works to prevent serious outcomes in the target population.  The reason is simple: Those serious outcomes occur so rarely that until you have many years of experience you do not know if you blocked only the "ordinary and not-dangerous" infections or whether you also blocked the dangerous ones.  You cannot presume -- and yet that's exactly what we're doing.

With varicella it took roughly 20 years to know whether this was true and thus whether licensure was appropriate.  We found that it was, and thus the vaccine was licensed.  But remember that varicella is a one-time deal; you get vaccinated and you're done.  Covid19 vaccination is not a one-time deal; the calculation is thus more-akin to the flu shot than it is to measles or mumps.

Do not buy the bull**** running around about people being "re-infected" in weeks or months or that asymptomatic transmission is a material part of the whole picture either.  That's crap; there is no scientific evidence of that happening.  None.  We've known for a couple of decades that coronaviruses tend to run in 3-4 year cycles.  This means immunity is likely present for a couple of years, not a couple of weeks or months.  There is more to immunity than antibodies; T-cell recognition is also involved.  The burden of proof that one coronavirus behaves differently than all the other ones is on the person making the claim and zero such evidence, thus far, exists.

With Covid19 if we stopped transmission into nursing homes and hospitals by enforcing a sanitarium model as I proposed in March of this year would have had perhaps 10 or 20,000 total deaths in the US.  This is less than the seasonal flu.  The reason is while Covid19 kills old people as does influenza it almost-never kills young people, where seasonal influenza does kill children at a materially higher rate than healthy adolescents and adults.

This means that had we adopted that path it would have become a nuisance to moderate risk, as is influenza, within 12-18 months and essentially would have become part of the ordinary seasonal flu outbreak every year -- and thus all the screaming and hollering, plus all the money spent on vaccines, would have been wasted.

Do not think for a minute that "routine" seasonal flu vaccines are a simple thing everyone should take either.  That's flat-out wrong.  There is scientific evidence that annual vaccination from childhood or adolescence forward for the seasonal flu increases the risk of getting the flu when you're older -- roughly doubling that risk!  That is, you may well trade a few non-dangerous but inconvenient cases of the flu for a risk of a dangerous case when you're older and sicker.  Yes, it took ~30 years to figure this out.  Gee, I wonder why?  I guess some people would have to take the shot for all those years before you started to get the data, eh?  Uh, yep.

That doesn't mean nobody should take the seasonal flu shot, or that nobody should take the Covid19 shot, even if the latter is not fully tested.  The former is likely a really good idea if you have serious co-morbid conditions that materially elevate the risk of dying or being hospitalized from the flu, and ditto for the latter.  With Covid19 the risk is over two hundred times higher if you are over 70 as opposed to someone under the age of 50 and compared against someone under 20 it's well over 1,000 times higher.  That's a big difference but it is exactly why closing schools, demanding masks, banning keggers, closing bars and similar is flat-out stupid; you want younger people to take their naturally-larger percentage of the infections since statistically-speaking the virus will not hurt them significantly and if you inhibit those infections in any way then on a "share of the whole" basis more grandmothers get infected and as a result 10 or 100x as many people die.

Never mind that if you have IgG antibodies there is exactly zero reason for you to take the vaccine at all; you have had the virus and you have the very same antibodies that the vaccine is supposed to promote your immune system creating.  Taking the shot in that circumstance is all risk and no reward, which is flat-out stupid no matter who you are.  Paper chromatography tests to ascertain this status do exist and cost a couple of dollars each.  The FDA will not approve them for general consumer use and the reason why is obvious; if you could buy one for $2 at WalMart and use it would you take the vaccine if you were positive?  Of course not.  Would you wear a mask, social distance or otherwise engage in any mitigating strategy if you are positive?  Of course not; all of them are worthless since you can neither get or transmit the virus.  What percentage of the population is positive?  Depends on where you live, but in many parts of the US I bet its over 20% -- and in some places may be higher.  Exactly nobody should consent to a shot until and unless you can ascertain that status first for a couple of dollars privately without disclosing the results to anyone.  If they want people to take this vaccine they can authorize the damned IgG tests for OTC sale at a cost comparable to a pregnancy test.

So why is it that we're being denied the ability to have this information on our personal IgG status any time we'd like in the privacy of our own homes?  There is no valid scientific or public health reason to do so; there is only a desire to exert control.

This refusal to allow these tests to be sold OTC everywhere for less than a cup of coffee is directly contrary to public health and those responsible should be arrested, indicted, tried, convicted and swing.  NOW.

Denial of this knowledge is killing seniors directly by forcibly isolating them in nursing homes when there is no reason for them to be afraid as they've already had the virus but don't know it and in addition not performing such tests on a routine basis for caregivers is directly killing vulnerable people by allowing non-seroconverted individuals who are mixing in the general public to come into such places and treat said vulnerable people when we could preferentially hire and use seroconverted individuals to provide that care.  Nine months into this "novel" virus that is intentional and is in fact both medical malpractice and mass-manslaughter.

Would you deny the sale of pregnancy tests and force a woman who misses her period to go to the doctor?  Is it not more important that she be able to know in the privacy of her own home if she thinks she might be pregnant?  Does not that knowledge learned early and inexpensively positively correlate with said woman altering her behavior to protect someone else -- specifically, the fetus?

WELL?

There is also a non-zero risk that a hostile and powerful state actor (cough-China-cough!) might ban our vaccines in their nation and then develop a bug that targets them specifically.  Do note that "gain of function" research, which Dr. Fauci funded at the Wuhan lab to get around Obama's ban on same in the US can be perverted in exactly this way.  Biological warfare in general is stupid as it has a high probability of killing your own people but that concern disappears as soon as the population you wish to kill tags itself with something unique you can have your engineered bug key on.

Well?

Second, when will we stop diagnosing someone who is obviously ill, has all the differentiating signs that it's Covid19 (e.g. loss of taste and/or smell) and send them home with no treatment or mitigation until they're literally choking to death?

That's insane; we know how to treat the potential bad effects of this virus; we've had eight months of clinical experience with it!  We know what those bad effects are and in most people, with appropriate medical guidance, we can intervene to offset at least some of those effects in most of those people.  For example we know this virus produces both immune dysregulation and clotting disorders in some people, and that this is the mechanism by which it kills.  We have mitigating drugs that are extraordinarily safe we can use to try to interrupt this process and we further know how to detect and treat those disorders, specifically clotting disorders, if they occur.

There are some who have other conditions that make some of the mitigating strategies dangerous to use and as such the art of medicine absolutely comes into play but in the vast majority of persons at least some of those strategies are safe and should be used.  If a strategy is safe then there is no material risk and only potential benefit to be had.  Potential benefit doesn't mean it will always work just as we have no medical science anywhere that always works for any disease.  Eight months into this our so-called "medical professionals" are still committing both malpractice and outright manslaughter.  I see that pattern right here in my county and I'm pissed.  God help any of those so-called "medical professionals" who ever want anything from me.  If I see one of them on fire and have a cup of water in my hand I'm drinking it and watching them burn.

People ask me why I'm trying to "buck the system" when it comes to this disease and what our government has done.  The answer is simple: I will not sit back and allow what appears to be at first blush insanity but is very likely nothing more than manslaughter-for-profit to take lives by the tens of thousands while remaining silent -- and neither should you.

Go to responses (registration required to post)
 

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
User Info The Foolishness on 'Warp Speed' in forum [Market-Ticker]
Loonster
Posts: 130
Incept: 2012-10-28

West Michigan
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Just searching for "mRNA Prion" is enough for me to nope the **** out... well actually I noped out 8 months ago, but prion are just another nope added to the list.
Invisiblesun
Posts: 107
Incept: 2020-04-08

Maryland
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Karl,

Research published in Nature indicates "asymptomatic spread" is imaginary - it doesn't happen. Of course the Fauci said this before Covid was weaponized against the American people.

Fauci is on the record assertively declaring three truths that nullify the lockdown & masking mandates. These declarations are:

(1) Masks don't work

(2) Asymptomatic spread is not a big deal

(3) The Covid PCR test gives bad results if it runs too many cycles.

We have Fauci on video confidently making these statements. The data supports these statements. Yet even Fauci backs the lockdown / masking insanity. He knows that "science" doesn't butter his bread but politicians and corporate interests do.

Oh, and the vaccines? The FDA is in no hurry to approve them. The scientists with integrity have cause for concern. The FDA members with politics in mind also have a concern - once vaccinations start the entire argument for lockdowns completely unravels. For then you will have tens of millions of "vaccinated" persons and also recovered persons who do not and should not be wearing masks or be locked down.

Why would the tyrants want to end their tyranny when it is going so well for them?

The Nature paper:

"There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases"

"Virus cultures were negative for all asymptomatic positive and repositive cases, indicating no viable virus in positive cases detected in this study."

"In the present study, virus culture was carried out on samples from asymptomatic positive cases, and found no viable SARS-CoV-2 virus. All close contacts of the asymptomatic positive cases tested negative, indicating that the asymptomatic positive cases detected in this study were unlikely to be infectious."

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-0....
Tickerguy
Posts: 169066
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yep.

A person who is "asymptomatic positive" likely is not actually positive. The most-likely explanation is that they were exposed but the evidence is they were actually immune and thus their body destroyed the virus without generating pathology.

Such persons do not shed competent (infectious) virus but DO shed viral particles, which are not dangerous -- but will show up on a PCR test that is cranked up to sufficient levels.

PCR testing is not proof of infection since it cannot differentiate between competent virus and viral fragments.

With ALL viral infections you are going to have viral fragments LONG after you are actually diseased. When I got the flu in January I bet I was shedding viral fragments for a MONTH, yet despite a lingering cough and a hit to my Lactate Threshold and VO2Max that went on for a long time I was not sick with a virus during that period, nor could I give it to anyone else.

----------
I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.

Thelazer
Posts: 426
Incept: 2009-05-11

Davenport, Fl
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
From talking to some folks around here, I'd say it's 50% at best that feel like they will go get this shot (can you guess what voting demographic they are also..)

But, at the moment if they want to go be Ginnie pigs, so THEY can feel good and unmask, travel, shop and go back to work. So be it.

Heck I'm willing to encourage them to do it. Go GET YOUR SHOTS I SAY!

I'm a mad man for suggesting that someone take possible harm to themselves down the road, just so we can stop having toilet paper shortages now. Yes I am.

I'm okay with it.

Burya_rubenstein
Posts: 1864
Incept: 2007-08-08

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Since you brought up Chicken Pox, I am reminded to ask again what your take is on a "vaccine for Shingles". Could you say a few words on this?
Mangymutt
Posts: 1799
Incept: 2015-05-03

Vancouver WA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
People ask me why I'm trying to "buck the system" when it comes to this disease and what our government has done.


The sun not going around the earth, the earth being a sphere are two of countless reasons to "buck" the system. As been discussed many times on Market-Ticker consensus is not science. Without free thought of opposing ideas actual scientific investigation dies and is replaced by consensus. Which leads to things like witch-hunts.

I am not a huge "conspiracy" fan, but I am a huge fan of Human Nature. As a society we have allowed "authority" like schools, politicians, even the church to push insane and unprovable ideas as electric vehicles are better for the environment and we can "re-assign" our sex parts at will just to name two. And we foolishly and unquestioningly except it as "fact". Politicians have used corona virus to shut down all opposing views (Schools, churches, social groups)which has created a vacuum of ideas.

I have no clue why the fear of corona virus took hold so quickly, but it is obvious the hole for actual scientific process is being filled in by MSM, they put up "leaders" we had never heard of and tell us it is a sin to question them, No Matter How Contradictory their words are. And the vacuum gets filled.

400 years ago Galileo was deemed a heretic for going against consensus and using actual science. How and why did such a huge vacuum get filled with idiot ideas during Galileo's time is debatable. But for us it can be directly linked to us allowing our freedoms to be slowly eroded for safety and us believing if we just keep our mouths shut things will get better. And over the course of a couple generation many have accepted lies like: We need to pay reparations for slavery. And as self reliance gets eroded "equality" starts to fill the vacuum.

Although Karl and others may be considered Modern Day Heretics for "Bucking the System", it is becoming increasing clear those who are flooding into this vacuum with empty science, have a growing boner for vaccines. What exactly do they want to insert and squirt inside you and your loved ones? The fact that YOUR health seems to be trivial to them should cause any THINKING person to question: What exactly will YOU receive in return. If all you can answer is, you may receive some protection against a non-lethal bug and/or be considered one of the "Good Guys" i.e. "its the right thing to do", then you may want to question why it is so important for them to get this out at Warp Speed.

It is not for me to tell anyone what they should do, as it is up to YOU to review the science on your own and decide if the price of admittance into club Warp Speed is worth it. As for me I fully support our Heretical Host in bucking the system and drawing my own conclusion.


----------
"It's just a shot" - Gates
Expat_tom
Posts: 123
Incept: 2020-07-06

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
There was an alternative way to do it: turn the schools in to winter camps and let them all self inoculate, by letting it run wild for a few months, kind like Valley Forge.

The problem is no parent would want to intentionally subject their child to the National Pox Party...so instead of leaving them there for a month or two and letting it run its course, we bring them home every day to kill grandma...
Tickerguy
Posts: 169066
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Except the percentage of homes where Granny is happens to be quite small, and the kids could go stay with a friend down the street for a couple of weeks.

See, that's the problem when you get down to it -- you can know in 10 minutes if you've had it and are presumptively safe. But the FDA won't let you walk into WalMart and buy that test.

That's where the problem is.

----------
I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
Expat_tom
Posts: 123
Incept: 2020-07-06

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The national bureaucracy has long been the problem, on almost every issue. Because both sides want to keep things certain ways for power.

If they actually gave a **** about fixing certain major problems in society, we would have long ago told the FDA and DEA to pound sand and made cannabis (mass incarceration and police state debate), metformin (healthcare debate) and the birth control pill (abortion debate) over the counter.

The antigen testing hold-up is just par for the course.
Azengrcat
Posts: 517
Incept: 2010-05-31

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The Lipid Nanoparticle (LNP) container for the mRNA is well known for causing both SAEs and toxicity. It was abandoned in RNA interference/silencing (RNAi) and Antisense Olgio (ASO) drugs because the help/harm ratio was not great. There are a few out there that utilize it for extreme orphans: Onpattro and Tegsedi. Even the original patent holder Arbutus ($ABUS) has moved on from this technology in their own drugs.

The mRNA guys dont have a better delivery system. Moderna ($MRNA) blatantly stole the ABUS IP and pretended they didnt know to pull in VCs and retail. COVID-19 and OWS magically solved all of their problems by jamming their junk through the clinic with a captive customer. Moderna execs arent shy about selling shares and I would be doing the same thing if the lawyers let me. Ill be waiting for the NVAX vaccine results.

----------
Take off your engineering hat and put on your management hat
Tickerguy
Posts: 169066
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
**** it given a study I just read on Ivermectin I'll just get the virus.

As long as I catch it before clotting problems start to show up the whole thing is OTC. **** the doctor.

----------
I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.

Lenguado
Posts: 3397
Incept: 2010-01-12
A True American Patriot!
Orlando, FL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I'm sorry Gen, but my trans-gen neighbor who had a 'clipadikfromme' operation absolutely sez that he and 8 of his bestest similarly modified friends CAN most certainly produce a normal human child within 30 days with all 9 of them working together.

Just in case - /sarc
smiley

----------
"War is when your government tells you who the enemy is. A revolution is when you figure it out yourself." --Unknown
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable." - President John F. Kennedy
Office of the President Elect Lenguado (((WWG1WGA)))
Tickerguy
Posts: 169066
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Well.... I bet Pornhub would go crazy watching them try.

----------
I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
Expat_tom
Posts: 123
Incept: 2020-07-06

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Tickerguy: you have a link? I bought some injectable Ivermectin a while back just for this purpose before we started having runs on it if the science proved it out.

I've got it and Dexamethasone, unfortunately that also comes with lidocaine as it was for intramuscular injection for disk injury, so I hope to not to have to use them but I will if I happen to catch COVID, I'm not going to wait around for a possible complication.
Contra-2
Posts: 40
Incept: 2020-04-21

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
It appears the UK is expecting the vaccine will kill a lot of people. The MHRA is posting a contract notice for an upgrade to its computer tracking software to better keep up with the increased number of adverse reactions/deaths it anticipates as a direct consequence of mass vaccinations for COVID. Apparently they want to register every single death ... and gloat!
https://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE....
Radiosity
Posts: 506
Incept: 2009-03-05

Sunny UK
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Mangymutt "Without free thought of opposing ideas actual scientific investigation dies and is replaced by consensus."

"The science is settled." -- Climate nutjobs.

Meanwhile, here in Blighty... our treasonous government has just informed us that they'll be rolling out vaccines to all under 50s by the end of January.

With respect (that be 'none'), you can **** right off.
Bodhi
Posts: 2665
Incept: 2008-02-23

Canton, GA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Tickerguy wrote..
Well.... I bet Pornhub would go crazy watching them try.


 

----------
"Unthinking respect for authority is the greatest enemy of truth." Albert Einstein
Tickerguy
Posts: 169066
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List

----------
I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
Oliver1655
Posts: 272
Incept: 2012-08-02

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
expat_tom,Tickerguy

Would appreciate any more "iver" info and "where to" I've read great reviews and studies out of OZ on this. Was backing up my HD and suffered a permanent fatal error bricking it and lost all my covid19 files, info, and pdf's from all of 20 as well as all TG reference youtubes/bitchutes that spelled so much of this out.

Right now I'm wondering how to figure out the proper amount of "apple flavor". Dr. refused to prescribe as prophylaxis and admitted he had heard nothing about fecal/oral transmission. Further shattering any confidence in the medical/ pharma sectors other than they are not interested in actual cures and are only interested in extorting max. money.

Tickerguy
Posts: 169066
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
It's a math problem; take those studies and get out your paper and pencil.

----------
I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
Mangymutt
Posts: 1799
Incept: 2015-05-03

Vancouver WA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Contra
Quote:
It appears the UK is expecting the vaccine will kill a lot of people.

And as if on Que
Radiosity
Quote:
Meanwhile, here in Blighty... our treasonous government has just informed us that they'll be rolling out vaccines to all under 50s by the end of January.


Each "dose" of the vaccine is supposed to be tracked by an RFID so in theory it may be possible to say "Joe Pintworthy" got this batch of vax at this location under theses conditions. Time of day. Exact Time. By Technician. Dos was tTemp. And whatever other field they want. From there that data could be compiled to generate whatever report needed. In theory that sounds pretty nifty and straight forward.

However we have an ejection labeled as "vaccine" that supposedly needs to get from manufacture to assault point at below 70 degrees. It is to be distributed by a government agent, to a massive amount of people "all at once", some of those people against their will.

If the job application Contra linked is accurate and true, that means currently there is NO system to track even those who willingly get assaulted. "They" do NOT know what the short term adverse effects of this injection may be, let alone the long term effects.

Anybody who has worked with databases understands Data In in vital, but is also often garbage even by the most well intended data enter-er.

That injection may have been concocted at Warp Speed, but a viable tracking system can not be.

That aspect might be very interested to watch unfold.

Radiosity it is MHO that "With respect (that be 'none'), you can **** right off." is the proper attitude to have until they can prove no harm will come to you or your loved ones because of this.

----------
"It's just a shot" - Gates
Loonster
Posts: 130
Incept: 2012-10-28

West Michigan
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Oliver1655, many of the studies use the same therapeutic dose for treating COVID as they do for treating parasites. If your 200lb horse gets covid, just dial 200lbs on it and call it a day.

I'm more concerned about the innactive ingredients in dewormer.
Jwjw
Posts: 62
Incept: 2019-07-13

Rocky Mountains
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Mangmutt, "consensus is not science."

You remind me of Taleb writing in Skin In The Game. An enjoyable read.

Worldwide mass hysteria.
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ