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2020-10-11 12:48 by Karl Denninger
in Politics , 411 references Ignore this thread
Here Comes 'Ground And Pound'
[Comments enabled]

Were I Biden and his camp I'd be real worried about right now.

Why?

Because Trump, being medically cleared and having had Covid, plus testing positive for antibodies, no longer has any reason to practice any sort of distancing or mask wearing.  He can no longer give or get the virus.

This means he can walk through a crowd and shake hands.

He can give and receive hugs.

He can speak without a diaper on his face, at any distance, around anyone.

He is violating no public health directives anywhere by doing so since he is provably immune and has been so-proved.

Maybe immunity lasts for a long time and maybe it doesn't but in the context of the campaign all that matters is the next three weeks.

Politics is a blood sport folks.  It always has been and always will be.

I believe that the "superspread" event at ACB's reception was intentional -- that it was effectively an attempted poisoning.  It was aimed at Barrett, not Trump, but whoever did it didn't realize that ACB was already immune; both she and her husband had already had the virus.  They didn't give a crap about the collateral damage; indeed, that was all designed to feed into the CNN screamfest about "masks" and make Trump look bad, which of course is bull**** with fecal transmission since it's coming out your ass, not your mouth or nose.  In fact a mask makes it worse because wearing one greatly increases the odds you will touch your mouth or nose while adjusting it, and if you've contaminated your hands with the fecal material you just infected yourself.

Incidentally the stochastic way this bug behaves makes ordinary respiratory transmission on a casual basis extraordinarily unlikely.  It's not impossible, and I'm sure it happens -- but I'm also very sure that's not the majority way this bug passes between victims.  In fact I'd take a bet tomorrow that fewer than 10% of all transmissions are "casual respiratory" ones.

Stochastic behavior, which we keep seeing, is inconsistent with respiratory transmission by asymptomatic people. But it is very consistent with fecal spread and the correlation between nursing homes and construction sites, where feces is exposed on a regular basis (construction sites use porta-potties) and hand-washing is nearly impossible (no running water yet) along with ~40% of nursing home residents being incontinent is entirely consistent with what we've seen.

Simply put ordinary respiration from an asymptomatic person is not how it spreads.  That's what the data tells us.  Eight months into this the evidence is conclusive.

One small amount of feces from a highly-symptomatic victim mixed into food or beverage, or smeared on utensils or cups is another matter.  That the cluster of cases, all same-generation with identical onset times and correlated but they were outdoors makes "droplet" transmission from an asymptomatic individual statistically impossible.

That they scored Trump instead was of course considered "all the good" -- especially considering he's overweight and older, so there was a decent chance, the crazies thought, that he'd at least get nasty sick and if he died that was good from their point of view too.  Just look at the ghoulish tweets and comments by media people when Trump popped a positive test.

They should have listened to people like me; this bug is no big deal if you interdict it early.  Which Trump did.  And in less than a week he was clinically cured.  Now he's clinically immune while Joe Biden is not, and Biden is even more medically-brittle than Trump.

In other words the Democrat side wound up suck-starting a shotgun and if you think Trump won't capitalize on this you're nuts.  He most-certainly both will and should.

Good luck Joe.

You're going to get tripped, thrown down on the mat and your face pounded into it for the next three weeks.

Oh, and there's no referee to stop the fight before the 3rd of November either.

PS: I loved the original reference from Twatter -- it's an utterly great mental picture for what's about to happen to Biden.

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Hapablap21
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I keep meaning to ask what "stochastic spread" means.

What does stochastic spread mean?
Tickerguy
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Non-deterministic.

Scientifically we know enough virons to infect you (> MID, or minimum infective dose) will fit on one PM2.5, which goes right through anything less than an N95. We also know that the replication number for a virus is anywhere from ~1,000 to 100,000+ per "viral turn", depending on the virus, and that the generation time typically runs from 8-72 hours. From this it is trivially determinable that you are a thousand or more times as likely to transmit the virus in terms of expelled live viral load with each "turn" right up until your immune system intercepts replication and stops it.

This is math, and there's no arguing with it. The other thing there's no arguing with is that if you get really sick, that is, your immune system responds slowly enough that another turn or so gets to rip through you before control is achieved, once you get REALLY sick you're not transmitting anything to anyone because you're not out in public. The only vectors remaining at that point are your family members or medical professionals.

So spread should be deterministic if it's coming out your mouth and nose, and further, the closer you to are to symptoms the worse that should be by exponential factors, not linear ones because your load is increasing with time by exponential factors and so is "free" virus that has been released and is attempting to infect another cell (whether in your or someone else.)

But it isn't. Nowhere have we seen that pattern with Covid.

Fecal bugs are a different game. The turd that goes down the hole and is immersed in water in the bowl and then flushed low-pressure may not shed much or anything into the environment. The "blow up the can" blast-from-the-ass is another matter; that blows **** literally everywhere, as do high-pressure commercial toilets when they flush. But the person who has it can't get it again as they already have it, so whether you get it depends on whether you're there or pick it up in the short period of time before it goes up the exhaust (assuming there is one and it's on) or if the previous victim gets it on his hands and contaminates the wash basin and such (probably), OR MUCH WORSE, WORKS THERE, CONTAMINATES HIS HANDS AND THEN GIVES IT TO EVERYONE HE PREPARES FOOD OR BEVERAGES FOR.

Or, as recently happened here in town with a nice outbreak at the WalMart, it could be as simple as clocking out, going to the ****ter during your break, taking a dump and contaminating the time clock when you clock back in.

All the mask mandates in the world (and WalMart has one for their staff) will not protect anyone in that instance.

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Aethor
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Hapablap21 wrote..
What does stochastic spread mean?


As a simple example, imagine pouring water from one glass to another.
In theory, if you knew the exact position and orientation of each molecule, and their vector and speed, as well as those of the glass, and a bunch of other factors (air and particles in it), and if you had God's own computer you could calculate exactly where each molecule will end up.

That would be called deterministic.

Since in practice this is not doable (imagine a zillion billiard balls hitting each other, and you trying to compute that event exactly), people use probabilities and large amounts of particles (like, one glass of water), and come up with the answer that 99.9% is going to end up in the other glass.

No one can tell you exactly which molecule ends up where, but the answer is still good enough for most practical purposes.

That's a stochastic approach.
It's used for events that, although not truly random, from a practical viewpoint they're semi-random and probability calculation is mixed with classic physics.

Uwe
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I wish there was a way to embed Twitter vids here.
This one is a whopping 19 seconds long, and expresses the sentiment perfectly:
https://twitter.com/mad_liberals/status/....

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"Corona Virus will come and go, but government will NEVER forget how easy it was to take control of everyone's life; to control every sporting event, classroom, restaurant table, church pew, and even whether you are allowed to leave your house.
Tickerguy
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Unfortunately Twatter does not expose an API for that, and while I might be able to hack a way to do it in an iframe they'll figure out I'm doing it and likely ip-banhammer the forum, since it's not something they "offer" to people on a general basis.

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Uwe
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Well then I'll just have to do some indirection:


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"Corona Virus will come and go, but government will NEVER forget how easy it was to take control of everyone's life; to control every sporting event, classroom, restaurant table, church pew, and even whether you are allowed to leave your house.
Quik49
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Wifi
Posts: 4289
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Seagrove Beach
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The Trump trolling from here on out, will be epic.

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Hurricane Evacuation Plan
1.Grab Beer
2.Run Like Hell
Ee4fire
Posts: 522
Incept: 2011-03-24

Washington, DC
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The liberal media is trying to say Trump wasn't actually infected with the WuFlu and it was a hoax. I do not see the doctors and staff at Walter Reed treating him for a non existent viral infection and it not leaking out Too many people have access to the records there. Since there are others like Gov. Christie, Hope Hicks, etc. who are close to Trump and confirmed they infected.


I can't even believe this election is even close. Biden and Harris are two inept morons, which probably shows that a large part if the USA electorate is also.


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(Politicians), 536 commoditized temple monkeys pawing through the ruins of America in search of bribes. (The District of Corruption) works like a vending machine. You put coins in the slot, select your law, and the desired legislation slides out." Fred Reed. Some editting by me.


Tickerguy
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For as long as I've been alive there have been very few truly persuadable people in the electorate. Perhaps when Reagan won there were, but certainly not since.

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Technica
Posts: 9
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First of all in Tulsa they had the Pledge of Allegiance from schoolkids on TV. Here's a screencap:

Anyone see anything wrong with this picture? I saw that on TV and couldn't believe it. 2nd grade so that's what 7 years-old ? Wearing masks OUTSIDE ? That small girl in the pink dress bottom-left seems to be struggling to breathe and keeps squinting really bad (can see it in the screenshot). This just blows my mind.

Video here: http://www.newson6.com/story/5f806a9c486....

The Highwire with Del Bigtree on his Thursday October 8 show had 2 OSHA health professionals on to discuss masks. They talk about how this mask thing is illegal and goes against OSHA protocols that have been around since 1979. Also say that employees that had to wear a mask 8-10 hours a day had to be medically examined before being allowed to wear a mask that long because it's very hard on the cardiopulmonary system. Now OSHA says it's all cool and anyone and everyone can wear a mask all day long no problemo. Mentions long-term oxygen deprivation causing cancer.

It's also interesting that one of these 2 women is director for "Stand Up Michigan" that sued and took Governor Herr Fraulein Whitmer of Michigan to the Michigan Supreme Court and won.

MASK WHISTLEBLOWERS TELL ALL
Ebt
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What the polls aren't getting is the effect of "political violence" on their numbers. A substantial # of people who will vote Trump will not honestly answer a poll for fear that their name, phone, and address could put them on a hit list of some sort.

The probability of that in the USA used to be 0%. Today it is definitely no longer 0%, it might still be very low but anything is too much.

Trump's current support is much higher than any poll is capable of measuring.



Kikknback
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Incept: 2020-03-17

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America was NOT built by frail old men with Dementia.

It was built by men with strength.

Joe Biden is a sick and frail old man, who is losing his mind.

Why would anyone, with an I.Q. above 85, vote to put a frail old man (JOE BIDEN), who is obviously losing his mind, in control of a nation that needs strength at its positions of leadership?

Joe Biden will be in a LTC facility within two years getting his Depends changed for him.

America "Depends" on strength in its leadership to be successful, and having America being lead by someone wearing "Depends" will only result in America's failure.

America cannot "Depend" on Joe Biden for strength, when he is nothing but a frail old and SICKLY communist at the top of the COMMUNIST PARTY'S (democRAT) ticket.

Joe Biden has "Depended" on government for a paycheck his whole adult life. That is not a sign of strength.

It is the sign of a loser who never had the ability to make it in the real world, and acquire true strength and leadership skills.

A vote for Joe Biden is a vote that will force you, the citizen, to "Depend" on government, just like all Communist countries.

Tell Joe Biden to go to his rest home. We need strength, not a loser "Depending" on a facemask...and his DEPEND ADULT DIAPER.

America watched Barry Soetoro crap all over America.

America doesn't need Joe Biden crapping in his "Depends" in the Oval office, when he has spent a lifetime crapping on America from outside the Oval Office.

Village-idjit
Posts: 814
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@Kikknback - why vote for Joe? It is because the incredible and palpable hartred for Donald Trump by the progressives overwhelms and permeates every inch of their pin-headed brains and feelings. Facts, Reason, Science, History, Economics, and everything else one can think of are drowned out by intense hatred of this President. Anything that is good for our country cannot be because of him, and everything that goes wrong is because of him.
Asimov
Posts: 119796
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East Tennessee
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Not heard a WORD about third party candidates this election.

Anybody else?

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Quik49
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Technica....here they are grown up....
Inline

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Mangymutt
Posts: 1750
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Vancouver WA
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Quote:
Not heard a WORD about third party candidates this election.


Giant Meteor still has my vote.


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"It's just a shot" - Gates
Comrader
Posts: 432
Incept: 2010-06-10

pa
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asimo, I quit paying third parties any attention when the libertarian candidate endorsed BLM.
Pete_brewster
Posts: 90
Incept: 2015-12-10

Canada
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So how soon will Typhoid LaQuisha be, ah, encouraged to confess to attempting to assassinate the President of the United States?

And to divulge who put her up to it?

Not until the second inauguration, I imagine.
Greenacr
Posts: 133
Incept: 2016-03-15

Northern Ohio
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Hi Karl -

I know that you are probably not going to vote Trump either electing to not vote or all or write somebody in. This is not meant as a criticism.

I'm just curious as to your read on the polls and Trump's reelection chances. You always to seem to be able cut through data and statistics and provide very insightful analysis.

As many of your readers have also remarked, I don't know how you do what you do.

Thanks

Tickerguy
Posts: 168252
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@Greenacr - Until he was given Covid in an attempt to blow up ACB's nomination (had SHE gotten it she couldn't have testified, and that would have scuttled her nomination before the election, simply on the calendar) I was quite certain Trump was going to lose.

After he got into the HX and 24 hours later ran his little parade in the SUV I went over to Predictit and placed a small bet on him winning.

I think he's going to ram Biden's ass for the next three weeks straight and Biden has no way to respond to it. I know his type and have done business with that sort of person before. He's a prick but frankly, no matter how nice of a guy you might be if your opponent literally tries to take you out of the action or even kill you and fails, and in doing so leaves you with a monstrous advantage he can't replicate, you'd be crazy not to shove a snow shovel up his ass until it comes out his mouth and break the handle off.

All Biden can do is remove the mask and start doing mass rallies, which he won't do as he's literally scared to death (and perhaps with good cause too.)

I think Biden is ****ed. His surrogates played for the USSC seat and wound up giving Trump a second term.

There's an old saying: "When your opponent is in the middle of blowing his own brains out/going bankrupt/whatever -- let him."

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Jwjw
Posts: 35
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Rocky Mountains
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Post-infection Trump has considerable momentum.

I thought Trump could have done more to take on the medical cartel and the foreign intervention promoters.

The media publications that have broken their 100+ years of not endorsing have pissed me off so that I am now eagerly awaiting my ballot. Trump for the win, though it will be fought until year end.
Ebt
Posts: 299
Incept: 2018-12-22

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@KD IMO, Trump has never been behind this whole year.

I was on the cape last weekend with 9 of my old friends. 8 were Trump supporters, yet when discussed it was affirmed that not a single one would respond to a poll, if they were called. Some would not answer, some would say undecided, and several said they would say "Biden". Can't overstate how significant that is. On Market Ticker, how many of you would tell an unknown pollster that you were voting for Trump? Some of you would, but I bet more wouldn't.

If you have to find at least 2 Trump supporters to get one to admit it in a poll, then 50-40 Biden is actually 50-80 Trump. Then have to divide by 1.44 to normalize and its really at least 55-45 Trump!

Political violence has a way of doing that. It changes everything as far as polling goes, and its something we have no prior experience with here.
Uwe
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KD wrote..
All Biden can do is remove the mask and start doing mass rallies

Even if he was willing, very few people would show up, but there definitely wouldn't be any "masses".

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"Corona Virus will come and go, but government will NEVER forget how easy it was to take control of everyone's life; to control every sporting event, classroom, restaurant table, church pew, and even whether you are allowed to leave your house.
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