Gonna Put Up With This?
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Logging in or registering will improve your experience here
Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives

Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be sent unmodified to lawmakers via print or electronic means or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media, to republish full articles, or for any commercial use (which includes any site where advertising is displayed.)

Submissions or tips on matters of economic or political interest may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Considering sending spam? Read this first.

2020-10-01 08:51 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 854 references Ignore this thread
Gonna Put Up With This?
[Comments enabled]

This is the government's own data folks....

The question is this -- in less than five minutes you will understand the truth, so now will you shove it up your local and state authoritarian jackwads' ass?  Or are you going to consent to being raped of your humanity today, tomorrow and forward?

This is not my computation or set of assumptions, it is the government's own data with regard to whether "Covid" is dangerous or not.  Just the facts folks, just the facts.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/jNtvqQd7I5si/

It's pretty simple folks.  A bug that you are materially more-likely to survive, if you get itthan your base risk of survival over a given year is absolutely not something to fear or take "special consideration" over.  Remember that you cannot avoid the all-cause risk of death; that is, the mere fact that you're alive forces you to take the bottom figure in risk. But, when it comes to Covid19, you might have T-cell recognition and be immune or you might have had a "silent" infection and be immune.  Further, since we know antibodies often wane quickly you can't easily find out if either is true.

The point is simply this; even in the worst case scenario, since the CDC's numbers assume infection which of course is not certain, you're less likely to die of Covid, if you don't have it right now, than those survival numbers tell you since you might not get it.  But you cannot control the all-cause risk, and it is greater than Covid's risk.

In other words there is exactly zero justification for any sort of broad-based mandate, period.

 

\

Incidentally the CDC calculations are full of fraud. They're frauds because errors go both directions yet all of these overstate mortality.  Let's go down the list one at a time:

  • Level of pre-existing immunity.  They claim zero.  This is scientifically known to be false; US sampling has shown 50% pre-existing immunity.  This is enormous because it means suppression occurs at 20%, more or less, of the population that has been infected and not at 70%.  In other words it means the entire US, save a few places, is basically there right here, right now.  Incidentally we knew this was false in February due to forced-inoculation situations where not everyone got ill, but nobody knew why.  Now we know why.  The CDC has been lying about this since February folks.  That sin alone is enough reason to destroy the entire agency and throw every single person who works there out, naked, in the center of I-75 in Northern Michigan during the month of February.

  • R0 = 2.5.  Probably reasonably accurate.  My initial calculation said 3.0.  My back-tested actual results came in around 2.5 months ago, so we'll go with that.

  • IFR = Already in the table.

  • Percent of asymptomatic infections.  They claim 40%.  Current field data says it's approximately 90% with a demographic adjustment.  40% isn't even in the confidence band, by a lot.  In fact the CDC's own data table makes clear their claim is false; right below the scenario table they claim the mean estimated infections to reported cases is 11, which is approximately 10:1 asymptomatic/not-reported to symptomatic/reported.  They document their own lies!

  • Infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals.  The CDC claims 75%.  This is laughably overstated.  Viral replication is logarithmic and it is the higher end of that logarithmic expansion that produces the symptoms.  That is, when you become symptomatic you are carrying 10, 100x or even 1000x or more virus than someone who is not symptomatic.  It is wildly improbable that an asymptomatic person is 75% as likely to transmit the virus as someone who is symptomatic; this is simply a function of math.  If you have 1/10th or 1/100th as much viral load in your body there is no way you're 40% as infectious.

But even accepting these falsehoods, including the one the CDC documents itself on its own page as being a lie, there is absolutely nothing to fear from Covid-19 in terms of general public health.  It simply is not overly dangerous when compared with the basic and inescapable risks that come with being alive.

Tell all local, county and state government officials to shove their "mandates" up their ass.  There is zero justification for any of them.  Further, if you're being told you must comply at work -- go on strike with everyone else at your place of employment until the mandates are removed.

**** these people.  Say no, mean it, and do whatever is necessary to enforce it.

Go to responses (registration required to post)
 

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 3  First123Last
User Info Gonna Put Up With This? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Rickysa
Posts: 2241
Incept: 2007-08-22

Southern Pines, NC
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I see the source for the healthy data, but don't see where the data for the covid came from...I'm going to mayor, state rep, and governor, but would like to show the actual location of the CDC data (please forgive my ignorance if it is on your table.
Tickerguy
Posts: 168083
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Right here: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nco....

Scenario 5 - Current best estimate.

Note that this has a wildly pessimistic assumption in it -- specifically, that there are only 4 asymptomatic infections out of 10 (current actual best estimate is much closer to 10 than 4, but there is demographic skew) and that an asymptomatic person is 75% as infectious as a symptomatic one (this isn't just pessimistic it's flat-out horse****; viral replication, which is what generates symptoms, is logarithmic, so a symptomatic person typically has 10x to THOUSANDS of times the viral load of an asymptomatic person. That this results in only a 25% reduction for asymptomatic in transmission effectiveness is flat-out crazy.)

But -- this is THEIR data, so.... yeah.

Also note the OTHER known-false statements, such as this one:

Quote:
No pre-existing immunity before the pandemic began in 2019. It is assumed that all members of the U.S. population were susceptible to infection prior to the pandemic.


This is scientifically known to be false.

----------
I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.

Johlie
Posts: 4
Incept: 2020-06-27

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The ssa.gov address only shows data to 2017 for me (table4c6.html)
Tickerguy
Posts: 168083
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Well, yes. That's the point.

You want the data prior to Covid.

----------
I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
Johlie
Posts: 4
Incept: 2020-06-27

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Ok, I thought in the video you said 2019 data. I could be wrong, was just making sure I heard and followed link correctly.
Contra-2
Posts: 28
Incept: 2020-04-21

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The fact that half of all Americans genuinely believe that COVID-19 is a pervasive and mortal threat and the fact that most Americans have quietly gone along with the masks, distancing, lockdown silliness tells me that most Americans have gone insane, respectably insane, but insane nonetheless.
It's as if the gods themselves have passed judgment on the sleepwalking masses. Sophocles in his play 'Antigone' writes "Those who the gods wish to destroy they first make mad."
If we don't want to wind up dead we had better figure a way to distance ourselves from the majority of Americans who have simply lost their minds.
Tickerguy
Posts: 168083
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Johlie - Point being "2019 and prior"; if you're going to draw a comparison you have to do it with data that is not polluted with Covid19 cases. For example the TNDOH has "all cause" mortality tables, and the most-useful is the 4-year running rate which their current set is 2014-2017. That's good because it smooths out one-year aberrations, but catches trends.

It shows that in MANY Tennessee counties, including mine, Covid19 is of no more mortality burden than the flu. Now this is not true everywhere; there are a couple of counties where it's 400% of the flu burden!

Well, people are people, so the difference cannot be the people. It has to be what the government has done, which means we're talking manslaughter here, not a virus.

----------
I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
Whossane
Posts: 125
Incept: 2018-01-25

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The CDC also admits that only 6% of Covid fatalities are from Covid alone without comorbidities. For the young and healthy the odds of dying from Covid, if infected, are two in a million. Factor in T cell and herd immunity and the average healthy kid has less than a one in a million chance of dying from covid. Suicide will claim many more kid's lives than Covid will....but let's shut down schools, sports, youth groups, clubs, parks, swimming pools or anything else that would give a child a normal life.

The elderly aren't the only ones being killed by these politicians.
Tickerguy
Posts: 168083
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Absolutely. The local Mayor here recently handed out an "award" to the suicide prevention people.

Oh that's nice. How many people lost their jobs or are ****ed and done as a result of the lockdowns and destruction of jobs from mask mandates? We've had 15 people die allegedly of Covid, but I bet we've had more than that in an increase in deaths between suicides and ODs.

----------
I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
Raftermanfmj
Posts: 4860
Incept: 2010-09-06

USA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I've been trying to get circulation of Karl's C19 stuff up via Reddit, in forums you'd think would be very receptive but it seems the buy-in on the 'we must all take the vaccine or we all gonna die' is very high.

There's been some 'Thanks for this' and some people reached but it's remarkable how little uptake there is on such an important - literally existential issue - by most of the cattle. Er, I mean, people.

I will say those that have been here on The Market Ticker a while have a sorta selection bias inasmuch that we're used to, or not bothered by, our generous host's sometimes pugnacious style of presentation; those of a weaker constitution and also already predisposed to discounting his posts seize on that as reason to quit watching/reading.

And that's their loss. But since they also go along lemming-like with the BS their loss becomes ours as well.

So frustrating!

----------
I have never wished to cater to the crowd; for what I know they do not approve, and what they approve I do not know. - Epicurus
Oderint dum metuant - Caligula & Police State USA
Cletusnclovis
Posts: 14
Incept: 2016-04-21

kansas cattle country
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List

Rare poster here,

Question; How in the hell are we gonna reach that projected 400,000 deaths by the end of the year from the 'Ronavirus' now?
Not my projections, but the govt's.

Disclosure, masks=worthless, Govt brainwashing techniques did not work on me.
Tickerguy
Posts: 168083
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Cletusnclovis - We're not.

Infections fall before hospitalizations which fall before deaths.

There has NEVER been ANY Coronavirus disease that has had a "second wave." Ever. Not SARS or MERS, which were the two really bad ones. Covid19 will be endemic and circulate. The dry tinder it found among the extremely medically brittle, with no T-cell recognition, are dead. Those who it found with no T-cell recognition but not medically brittle got it, recovered, and now have T-cell recognition. The history of SARS and MERS shows that once you have that even though antibodies cannot be found a decade later that T-cell recognition remains, which is one of the seminal points of those studies -- you are at least partially immune and may be fully immune, so at worst you'll get a mild case if you get it again down the road, and it will circulate sufficiently that you will.

ALL of the places that have tried to cut off Farr's Law have failed. Every single one. Those that did not (e.g. Sweden) took the punch in the gut, some (Sweden again) failed to protect the brittle on the path to suppression but even so -- they're done.

Japan tried to suppress it with some orders (e.g. masks) and failed. They thought they had, but were wrong. But now they're on the downside as well.

Other nations that got real aggressive (e.g. Canada, Spain, UK, etc) tried to claim we were clowns -- or that Sweden was. They're all meat-hooking their own genitals at this point and freaking out. We're doing it too, because we tried to suppress it and just drew it out. New Zealand is patting itself on the back but it has no way out of its isolation box. Remember that Hawaii thought it had this thing beat and we were the idiots for not masking and quarantining -- easy for them when you can only get there by plane or ship. Oops.

But here's the other thing -- the histrionics about logarithmic explosions have not happened. Anywhere. Irrespective of mitigations. There is now enough data to look at the results in the context of mitigations taken or not and none of the NPIs correlate with better outcomes. The mitigations that DO correlate are widespread, easy access to HCQ and heavy use of Ivermectin. Is either causal? Unknown. But there is NO correlation with NPIs -- lockdowns, mask orders, closing bars, etc.

To put perspective on the 7-day gross death count MA right now it's roughly 1/10th of the total death rate in America every day. That is, close to 8,000 Americans die every single day; about 2.8 million a year. That sounds like we're really getting a knee in the nuts, but even if it was true it's not catastrophic by any sense of the word. Close to 40% of the "deaths" are either flu co-infections or something totally unrelated such as suicides and ODs that are being coded as "Covid" by the CDC. That's fraud, but it is what it is. Excess death is all that matters and you have to take back out all the excess NOT COVID because every cancer not screened for or treated, every extra OD and Suicide are a direct result of our intervention -- so those are charged not to the virus, BUT TO THE MITIGATIONS.

Even with their fraudulent accounting they're going to have trouble maintaining the histrionics for much longer. In counties where the health providers didn't kill brittle people, such as mine, this bug has an equal burden to the flu -- in other words, about 2% of all deaths.

Am I scared about that? Oh hell no. I'm far more likely to die in a car accident.
Inline
Inline

----------
I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.

Thelazer
Posts: 411
Incept: 2009-05-11

Davenport, Fl
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
And in other news... you sure you want this Vaccine?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/01/coronavi....
Tickerguy
Posts: 168083
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
104 fever? Oh **** that ****.

----------
I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
Tickerguy
Posts: 168083
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
God Help These People if any of these produce ADE. Given that sort of primary reaction if there IS an ADE event it will likely kill everyone who gets infected.

----------
I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
615obo
Posts: 22
Incept: 2020-08-10

Nashvegas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The morons in Nashville are now just making up words to add to their free-flowing bull manure.

https://fox17.com/news/local/nashville-d....

Quote:
"So, we can do something close to herd immunity, I call it herd resistance," Dr. Hildreth said. Herd immunity is when 60-70% of a population becomes immune to a virus through infection or via a vaccine. With a vaccine still not readily available and the population being far from achieving herd immunity, Dr. Hildreth called for herd resistance.

"If 60-70% of us do the things that we need to do to resist the virus, it can have the same effect," Dr. Hildreth said. "But we all have to do it. We can achieve herd resistance, even if we can't achieve herd immunity."


Mannfm11
Posts: 6617
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I think we might have the fox in the hen house. From what I understand, the test isn't reliable, because positive can depend on how many cycles the test is run. Isn't testing an income source? Keeping the infection rate up, keeps the testing rate up. You run a test enough cycles, it gives a positive read. I don't understand all of this, except if it shows positive for all coronaviruses, then you can get a read on most people.

This damn thing is like the global warming nonsense. Warming is a temporary trend, cooling is too. They cook the data and show what they want. How many dead weren't one foot on the banana peel, one in the light socket? I examine the demographics in Texas about every day. They claim 16 dead between 10-20. 86 between 20-30. How many dead in auto accidents. I think 30-40 is 286. 40-50 is under 1000. Median age in Texas is around 36. A certain number of people in those ages are ill to start. 70% of the population has an exposure in the area of driving a car and many of the other 30% are in the same category.

Here are some national statistics.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid....

How many of these people had the flu? Karl has pointed out that life expectancy in nursing homes is 6 months. That indicates half the people are dead in 6 months, at a minimum. How much of the over 65 deaths are in that category, people already in bad shape that were going to die the first time they got something? One expert they censored said viruses, in general, killed around 10% in nursing homes. They are all hard to stop and most are deadly to these people.

This is an interesting chart. Remember, we got to 100,000 deaths really quick, like before June 1. Where are those deaths in the excess death on this graph?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid....


----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Mannfm11
Posts: 6617
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
KD wrote..
There has NEVER been ANY Coronavirus disease that has had a "second wave." Ever. Not SARS or MERS, which were the two really bad ones. Covid19 will be endemic and circulate. The dry tinder it found among the extremely medically brittle, with no T-cell recognition, are dead.


John Cullen found old charts on the Spanish flu. There was a second wave, an echo. His contention has been much of this is an ignored H1N1 epidemic, a relative of the Spanish flu. We got a break in 2009, because a sizable number of people had immunity and it generally attacked younger people.

Link from previous post

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid....

----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Tickerguy
Posts: 168083
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
H1N1 was around this last winter; the CDC has admitted this and in fact tried to short-circuit the flu vaccine to get two epitopes of it in there. I think they did manage, but I doubt it did any good. That's the problem; you say "well it's H1N1" and then the question becomes WHICH EPITOPE? If you get it wrong you may get very little or even NO protection.

That's the other thing about Covid. We all assume there is no mutational action going on. Uh huh. I don't know if there is or is not, but what *DO* know is that I can find no evidence that the CDC or anyone else here in the US is undertaking to sample and sequence all over the nation to detect it.

That's a problem because assumption is the mother of all ****-ups.

----------
I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
Spitcher2
Posts: 2
Incept: 2018-05-17

13101
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Karl,
I love you man! Your existence has been a beacon of light for me over the years. I admire your talents and am inspired by this place you have created. Truth and Justice are principles I believe are worth living and dying for. Over the course of the last (9) months I've come to realize I've been more busy dying than living these last few decades and that course is now being corrected. That being said, the one and only thing I would recommend is switching out the "YOU" with "WE" in these posts. Thank you again for all that you share...Pitch
Gynojunkie
Posts: 67
Incept: 2020-03-19

AZ
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
On Coldfury.com this tidbit was reported for our perusal: it depicts Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf and Representative Wendy Ullman laughing on a 'hot mike' about 'playing' their constituents.

These people need to be dragged out onto the street and hung from the nearest lamppost.


https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/me....

What a cute couple. NOT.
Tickerguy
Posts: 168083
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yep. They got CAUGHT.

----------
I don't give a flying **** if you're offended.
Cletusnclovis
Posts: 14
Incept: 2016-04-21

kansas cattle country
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Mr Denninger,
Your reply to me is extremely helpful. I was thinking along those same lines, but can't quite put it all together like you can. I Really appreciate it!
Pete_brewster
Posts: 89
Incept: 2015-12-10

Canada
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Look. Karl. If Biden wins, you won't hear another word about Wuhan flu.

The powers that be will suddenly admit what you've been saying for months---that COVID-19 is only a threat to the elderly, the immunocompromised, and those with serious underlying medical conditions (they will never say "fat people")---and gradually order everyone back to work for wages 30 to 40 percent lower than pre-lockdown levels.

Oh, by the way, taxes will go up to boot. Those reparations won't pay for themselves.
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 3  First123Last