Interview: Tickerguy on RLA
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
FACT: Masks against Covid-19 do not work because under the laws of physics they can't and both governors and mayors have and continue to kill your grandfather for political reasons.
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2020-07-18 12:20 by Karl Denninger
in Interviews , 200 references Ignore this thread
Interview: Tickerguy on RLA
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Come and get it!

Some people have asked for more discussion of the markets and economy; well, here you go!

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User Info Interview: Tickerguy on RLA in forum [Market-Ticker]
Spence
Posts: 3928
Incept: 2009-09-11

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Thanks. I downloaded the MP3 and will listen on my walk today.
Mcra99
Posts: 1
Incept: 2020-07-18

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I thought that this was an interesting article;

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shot....

Covid19 is just like the flu but less dangerous?
Tickerguy
Posts: 166254
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Read here.... now do you understand why we have to do whatever is necessary to stop the MaskHoles RIGHT NOW, TODAY?

https://twitter.com/tickerguy/status/128....

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Greenrebellion
Posts: 687
Incept: 2009-01-03

Michigan
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Yup, we'll be wearing masks forever. Great...just great.
Nickdanger
Posts: 877
Incept: 2011-06-12

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@Tickerguy,

Good to hear your voice again - miss your podcasts.

The link to the twitter feed is disturbing - the mask thing has gotten completely out of hand.It's to the point that none of them will believe the truth when it hits them in the face.

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Grammar: the difference between knowing your **** and knowing you're ****.
M1919a2
Posts: 740
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Washington
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.008 pounds at 3200 fps!
Jeepguy
Posts: 304
Incept: 2020-02-07

Ohio
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@Tickerguy
Thanks for the economic broadcast!
And nice Twitter link!!
Jeepguy
Posts: 304
Incept: 2020-02-07

Ohio
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@Tickerguy
I had talked to a banker Monday and Tuesday on behalf of my parents, the banker and I ended up in interesting conversation about well the world at Large,
She informed me that she has clients that are exquisitely pissed off with the bank, and the reason they're so upset is because they want to refinance, they can't refinance because they took the deferment on the payments which means from the banks point of view they still broke the mortgage agreement contract the segment where talks about how you're going to make your monthly payments every month on time yeah they broke that agreement!

she said that the customer is getting extremely angry and talk about yeah but we were allowed to do that blah blah blah blah blah...

The banker woman says well yeah you are allowed to do that except you still broke the contract and other words you need to cough up the ****ing money or we're not giving you any more!!

And I told her I says yeah you know when all of this got started you know I even told my folks and whatnot that that's just going to be very bad on the other side of Summer....

and the reason I thought so is because I knew what was going to happen these people are going to take these damn payment deferments for basically what three months or what not and they're going to blow the money they're not going to save it and then when the bill comes due they don't have any money to pay it so hey it's foreclosure City....

I was actually all of the bank individuals I have talked to you within the past week and yes real estate agents as well the market has gone crazy somehow or another houses are selling like hotcakes they can't keep them in stock seemingly at any price....

One of the agents is actually very very reputable in my town county and surrounding areas here in central Ohio and he told meme that he expected that this market would give out 3 years ago but none of these guys ever expected it would hold out this long so you have real estate agents and bankers that are very leery about what the hell is going on......

The overall consensus between the real estate agents and the bankers is that there is indeed a bubble, they know it's going to collapse they know it's definitely going to bust they say soon but of course everyone maintains that they don't know the day or time....

Whitehat
Posts: 2695
Incept: 2017-06-27

Gone West
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@Jeepguy -- one of the reasons for the bubble is that people expect low interest rates for stimulus purposes and wish to get in before it surges even more. I figure about two years of that overall.

Next is that household formation was held off for a very large percentage of an entire generation. On this generation's heels is another generation at the age of household formation.

The dynamic for both of the above factors is that the housing must be a little more affordable and in an area with economic activity.

Consequently anyone with a house in a good area that is a little more affordable than the usual does very well in this market. Purchasers will trade size for affordable. If for example a metro prices houses at 700 and above, sick but not uncommon, anyone in the 650 and less, especially the 500s owns the market for the long foreseeable future.

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Keeping the underground economy keeps the peace and allows rebellious elements to protest their condition without actually protesting the government.

What were you doing over the years as your children's future was being destroyed? Do not expect them to fix your mistakes or tolerate you for them.
Jeepguy
Posts: 304
Incept: 2020-02-07

Ohio
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I agree with Karl, about the whole reset theory!

I agree you can print money but not houses, cars and chickens!
He's correct that people have to do things, like build things and of course manufacture products, in order to have an economy!

He's 100% correct, but of course why do you take a job? What's your motivation?

::Simple, it's for the money, money used to live! Pay bills, buy food and some useless **** that keeps you happy!

The host of the program Karl was on, recommended after Karl left, a hedge against inflation and one against deflation!(he didn't mention gold)

So comes the (by now) old tale of gold n silver gonna save us all, yes the system will crash but if you have gold or silver somehow you'll be just fine! Lol

Yes if you ignore what Karl said, if you ignore the sheer fact I'm not doing **** unless I'm paid somehow, then yes perhaps there will be that magical time where they hit the reset button and then they flip a switch and boom... you're on a gold n silver system and everyone just automatically understands it!

Yes it'll be swell! No gun rights over being cheated, no strong arm merchants! Just a happy wonderful land CCR talkin bout elephants in the band while you're looking out your back door!!

Goldtards/metaltards! Are irrational people who think they thought of everything when they didn't think of ****!
There again I don't work for free, and I'm not stupid, I know factories and retailers aren't going to pay you every week in gold or silver because simply...

THERE ISN'T ENOUGH TO GO AROUND!!

Besides the way I see it gold and silver would cause inflation, how I determined that,is solely based on the arch enemy and number one cause of inflation in retail!

And that's theft!
So let's say that bottle of lotion used to cost a dollar, okay so then let's say we made the magical switch to gold...

Let's say a gold coin equals what the old dollar use to equal, (by the way that chart will have to be in every single ****ing store)!

Well the trick is that a gold coin, is exactly that it's gold and it's a coin, I don't know about you but the last time I checked buddy metal is not trackable!

The bean counters are going to realize that effective immediately, meaning all the sudden they're going to charge $5, (say five gold coins) for that bottle of lotion, that was once originally a dollar, they're doing that to compensate for perhaps if the clerk feels the need to take a couple three of those coins!

That's inflation, and it's also true that merchants in general particularly now a days, use any ****ing excuse possible to raise prices most of that is because well you've got a mind-numbingly dumb society that Don't know Jack **** about business,
so when big corporation says something they think they just learnt some
(next level ****) so they eat it up and they willingly pay the price, they don't question anything especially when some of my favorite politicians get in front of them and do the minimum wage dance!

yes I know minimum wage has caused inflation as well however, I've seen where it's a $0.10 raise and they're acting like it's the end of the ****ing world and they use it as an excuse to raise prices, particularly in the upscale stores, so what happens is, is their customers generally buy that, that's the reason that they raised prices blah blah blah!

So it's especially important to consider the latter I've said about the public's willingness to be stupid and blindly pay whatever prices they're told to pay!

If you was to go on a metals based system, it is with a heavy heart I predict most would die of starvation with in a year!
If you was on a metals based system like many especially on YouTube have a hard on pushing for...
You can't **** around, you can't under any circumstances waste money! You have to be thrifty end of story because if your not you'll die!!

Those folks pushing the narrative of a gold and or metals based system do not know what they are wishing for!

Many talk about how the middle-class is under attack and is disappearing, yeah and if we was on metals?

There would be zero middle class in their current form! We would be back to much much simpler times indeed::: EITHER YOU HAVE OR YOU DON'T!

Your neighbors could be the haves, and you're household is the have nots!

In that world those are your options!

Ever thought about being a pimp? Well when you enter the magical world of metaltards, you might find yourself selling a known female to some dirty bastard who has firewood and a few chickens because you don't have anymore gold!!

Or you could get the nice path where your known female bakes a cake and roasts a chicken in trade for some firewood and a couple of chickens!

Or you just get left for dead because you're a have not!!

Yeah find a hedge many say! Doesn't work for the common man via it's one lousy ounce at over $1,800 an ounce!

Live Metal Spot Price (24hrs) Jul 18, 2020 at 20:11 EST
Gold Spot PricesTodayChange
Gold Price Per Ounce$ 1,813.39-0.93
Gold Price Per Gram$ 58.3-0.03
Gold Price Per Kilo$ 58,301.84

But karl said years ago on the Greg Hunter program, "the guy with the chickens in the backyard is much better off than the guy with the gold or the silver! because that afternoon when the **** hits the fan yes you might be able to find a merchant to sell you dinner but the first thing out of that merchant's mouth is going to be how much do you got? It will cost you everything"!

Now that too would be inflation!
I don't really think there is a hedge that you can get in portfolio investment or money form!
The only real hedge that there is and that there ever was, was/is land and knowing how to use it!

Invest in land and livestock!
Goforbroke
Posts: 8854
Incept: 2007-11-30
A True American Patriot!
The tadpole is gone due to CV-19. I am hunkering down.
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That thread ... wow.

The challenge is that the fear has been so instilled in everyone (well, not everyone totally, but the vast, vast majority) that without addressing it at its core, all of these restrictive mandates will continue unabated. Not only unabated, but in increasingly invasive measures bit-by-bit. I don't think there's any way of escaping it.

So the question becomes ... how do you deal with it? For most, going totally under the radar, off-grid, is unrealistic. Self-sufficiency in food, energy, supplies, etc. simply is not achievable for nearly all of the entire population.

Then there's the money issue which hasn't begun to surface.

So ... people will do whatever it takes to maintain their current or better lifestyle. And if it means wearing a mask or sending kids to half-schools or taking a vaccine (unproven and potentially truly harmful) ... they will do it.

There's a lot of energy out there right now ("I'm only going to shop where they don't require masks." "That's it. I'm homeschooling my kid." "**** them. I'm going to [fill in the blank] anyways.") That will get worn down over time (and I'm afraid not much time).

I hope this forum still exists in a year (or two) so we can commiserate on how each one of us, individually, eventually folded.

That, or how really messy it got in each one of our locations.

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It is death which gives meaning to life.
Uwe
Posts: 8801
Incept: 2009-01-03
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USA
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Whitehat wrote..
Next is that household formation was held off for a very large percentage of an entire generation. On this generation's heels is another generation at the age of household formation.

I think that's part of it, but another factor is that people wanna get out of the big cities. This increases the demand for suburban and rural homes, but what does the market for homes in places like NYC look like at the moment?

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"Corona Virus will come and go, but government will NEVER forget how easy it was to take control of everyone's life; to control every sporting event, classroom, restaurant table, church pew, and even whether you are allowed to leave your house.
Jeepguy
Posts: 304
Incept: 2020-02-07

Ohio
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@Goforbroke

Well in my spare time I too have thought that just like with every rule change, or every new acceptable social etiquette that appears at first, there's lots of resistance and then over time and then in many cases not much time at all it just becomes accepted!!

the thing is about off grid is those of us who have already plotted that long ago and are trying to see that through it's in our best interest to stay the course!

However I can say that you are very correct for most people it's just not possible! I also agree that within a year yes it's going to be very interesting to see how this turns out on an individual basis area by area!

I mean lots of hopes and dreams have been dashed already and I know that my personal situation hasn't been the best in 3 years so where the hell it goes from here who knows and it's going to be interesting and yes we all have our plans but **** so much has already not gone to plan it's going to be very interesting to see how much actually does!
Jeepguy
Posts: 304
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Ohio
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@Uwe
well I certainly don't know about New York state, but I can tell you that here in Ohio it's crazy, as I stated in an earlier comment I had talked to some real estate agents and some bankers, and these guys are talking about how it's just ****ing unreal they never say no **** like this!!

the housing market alone proves that the system is quickly becoming a two-tier system as in terms of the haves and have nots!

However one major factor in that is that those who get a home loan that's all they're getting is a home loan so even though they're purchasing homes with ridiculous price tags but they're not actually paying for them they still make payments They Don't really own them in other words!!

So at that point it's more like the have nots versus the look like they haves! and that means the other side of that bubble is one hell of a ****storm all the bankers and real estate agents I've talked to in my area totally talked about how that is what's going on they know it's going to be extremely bad many of them are already plotting to retire once crash hits they're not going to stick around this time!

I'm 35 but I can tell you that a lot of these guys are in their mid-40s too late fifties and they're already talking about literally walking away and retiring when the next crash hits!!

of course pay close attention to the real estate agents and in many of the banker types and the reason being is because look at where they live....

Either they live in rural areas or they live in gated communities many of them have even gotten the hell out of the gated communities and they're just straight going to the countryside!!

so to be honest I can only imagine what the hell it's like in New York state let alone New York City!!


I'm picking up that the main theme that's starting to emerge is that there's really nowhere to run!
M1919a2
Posts: 740
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Washington
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@Tickerguy

"People are so ****ING stupid."

Exquisitely simple!

Luke8929
Posts: 27
Incept: 2008-10-13

Hooterville
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Fincial theft and fraud is everywhere. Canada's wage subsidy benefit is your PPP. They are going to extend it until the end of the year, retroactive to July 5th. The cost of the program will double and they are easing up the restrictions on the program so more businesses qualify. There is no opposition to this anywhere, the banks are on board, business is all for it. Its like being in wonderland, no rational people anywhere in .gov or finance.

I see it was reported today that the little Munchkin man and the treasury are considering forgiving PPP loans under $150000 and the next relief package in the trillions is on the way, yet people are complaining about AOC and her tax the rich message. I got news for you AOC is already in the whitehouse, she is a he with a somewhat orange patina, no adults anywhere.
Kikknback
Posts: 58
Incept: 2020-03-17

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Eighteen TRILLION ($18,000,000,000,000.00) FIAT dollars printed in three (3) MONTHS by governments across the world.

And it is only getting started.

What could possibly go wrong?

How much will it take to be printed for the markets to take notice to the reality of what is about to happen?
Greenacr
Posts: 105
Incept: 2016-03-15

Northern Ohio
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Just made a run to Perryburg Costco in Northern Ohio to pick up a few staples. I was struck by how thin they were on general merchandise inventory. All seasonal items gone.... no seasonal display at all. The general merchandise shelves were also much thinner and stock normally displayed in one discrete location was spread over two or three rack locations. Even the food items were thinner.

Seeing this general trend everywhere. It seems as though the big box retailers have sold everything out of their warehouses and that there is nothing in the supply chain.

Is anyone else seeing this? This is the type of thing that only makes me increase my preps as a supply shock to an already disrupted supply chain could be very interesting.
Whitehat
Posts: 2695
Incept: 2017-06-27

Gone West
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@Uwe -- I cannot tell you much about Manhattan as it is still pretty quiet there RE wise which IT ALWAYS IS DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. I still expect Manhattan and the gentrified parts of its partner in crime Brooklyn to get ****ed in term of value, not necessarily volume. There is an interesting aspect to NYC which most not living here do not realize. Withing the regular city limits there are completely suburban-like neighborhoods. Since they are part of the city, they benefit from the significantly lower property taxes (yes, you read that) as opposed to the adjacent suburbs. In addition there are usually much better public transit options if anything can be claimed to be better about it. These more affordable, much lower cost of living and suburb areas are selling at asking or above. This is expected for the foreseeable future and has been long before the crisis, about a decade.

Moving out of the city limits, but within the expected commute times and the accepted associated misery of such, there are traditional suburbs in New Jersey, Long Island, Westchester County. People with money often leave Manhattan, The Bronx and Brooklyn to raise their families there. One must be really rich to raise a family in a suburban form in Manhattan and gentrified Brooklyn, so these suburbs work for the Upper Middle Class and aspiring to such.

I assume that some people are tired of the city and this crisis along with the ten year cycle of some Blacks being pissed about something pressed the issue. It relates to a comment that i posted somewhere else on this forum that crisis only accelerates the home and hearth and live like there is no tomorrow mentalities. One could say that it is the spark which makes people do things in a shorter time period that a good percentage would eventually do anyway and adds the fence sitters to the mix. Compressing demand only increases competition as would be expected.

Nothing like a disease scare to make people realize that life is short and to get on with things.

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Keeping the underground economy keeps the peace and allows rebellious elements to protest their condition without actually protesting the government.

What were you doing over the years as your children's future was being destroyed? Do not expect them to fix your mistakes or tolerate you for them.
Bodhi
Posts: 2352
Incept: 2008-02-23

Canton, GA
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@Greenacr, I was at Wal-Mart on Saturday morning. When I walked over to get some greeting cards I was astonished to see the sporting goods area was completely gone. Guns, fishing, camping, sports, etc completely gone. Just a big empty gap of nothing but floor space. I don't know if they're rearranging merchandise, but I've never seen anything like this before.
Spaceace
Posts: 42
Incept: 2019-05-09

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@Bodhi - Two Wal-Marts I frequent have moved their sporting goods section. The sporting goods section got moved to where the paint and hardware were. Those sections got trimmed back big time. I think your store might be getting reset. At least I hope so.
Bodhi
Posts: 2352
Incept: 2008-02-23

Canton, GA
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Not sure that's it as paint and hardware were right next to sporting goods, but they're obviously not done yet. I'll check it out next time I'm there.
Comrader
Posts: 431
Incept: 2010-06-10

pa
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local Lowes store was completely sold out of pressure treated lumber last week, also they were very low on power hand tools. They had space for about 10 different circular saws and didn't have 1 saw in stock.
Toddmeister
Posts: 113
Incept: 2009-08-10

Bay City, MI
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Yep a few weeks ago I went to Home Depot to replace a cordless drill I wore out. There were out of them...I went to the other local HD and got the last one on the shelf.
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