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Jfms99
Posts: 406
Incept: 2009-10-06

Maumelle, Ar
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Okay I have an interesting question, it may be dumb also, but so be it.

This concerns women and the spread of the Virus.

Given that we know this Virus can be spread by Fecal-Oral, is the following possible?

You have a woman that is positive for the virus and is shedding it in her feces, she doesn't practice hygiene very well, i.e., she does not wash her hands much.

You have have another woman and it is her monthly period, she needs a tampon quickly and asks if anyone has one. The woman with the virus gives her one. Now these are individually wrapped but the wrapper has the virus on it now.

The woman who needs the tampon has to take the wrapper off and now potentially has the virus on her hands and then uses the tampon. Can she get the virus from this train of use?

A hypothetical to muse on a Sunday Morning.
Inline
Tickerguy
Posts: 166189
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Absolutely, assuming she touches her face. Whether she can give it to herself in vaginal mucosa, I don't know. I wouldn't bet against it though.

That's exactly why fecal/oral spread is so ******ned hard to stop.

It's MUCH worse nowdays with all the cellphones. How many people pull them out when on the ****ter? Doesn't matter if you washed your hands; the phone is covered in virus. Then you go back to your table or stool in the bar, pull it out, you pass it around looking at pictures or do a group selfie, and how many people did you just infect?

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me

Depression2020
Posts: 97
Incept: 2020-03-20

Northern Virginia
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@Hobbled -

Since I choose to skip them and continue working on mission related production, I get the highlights of regular conference calls between with the "tele-make-working" from home and leadership (generals and senior executives) from others who dial in, and from minutes/notes mailed out later on. When the protests (and riots) first flared up in May-June, after the murder of George Floyd, a large part of these work force meetings was spent discussing related issues of race and protesting. Repeatedly, the workforce had to be reminded by leadership that they're barred from participating in protests (e.g. outside the White House) due to the Hatch Act.

I don't participate in social media apps like Face Sucker (don't have an account), but I know that co-workers "friend" each other on these services. Based upon managers' comments, I also know that the government and defense contracting companies "police" what their workers post to social media, and this can result in sanctions or termination.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hatch_Act_....

As I said in a previous post, we can't keep up with the work. A large percentage of the people picked to man the store in the national security sector, are among the most inexperienced. Their lack of experience, and the frequent lack of senior team members to train them or to correct their work, further reduces the quantity and quality possible with the skeleton crews.

Just when I was starting to think we'd get people back to work, the latest hysteria erupted and many of the Karen's in DOD are on board with the re-lockdown course of action you hear increasing calls for. In the organizations I work with, when things transitioned to emergency manning, the rule was 50% out of work and the other 50% rotating, with only 25% working at any one time. Keeping roughly 90% of the workforce on in shifts was discussed early on, and it is the plan when people finally come back. The same resistance you see to bringing kids back for in-person school, is a common reaction among government workers. In the conference calls (MS Teams Meetings) you see and hear lots of emotion come out - fear, yelling and hysteria. You also have senior leadership scolding the at-home workers for going out too much (e.g. to the grocery store), and getting infected - mildly increasing case counts are preventing them from bringing people back sooner.

As I've also mentioned, governors and local government officials (e.g. school boards) have a disproportionate impact on the lives or the national security workforce in the national capital region (NCR). It doesn't take a genius to predict widespread absenteeism if the bring the workforce back, while children are unable to attend school in person. Current policy also allows government workers to "administrative leave" (instead of their normal annual or sick leave) to stay home with children or family members who are thought to be at high risk (e.g. any child with asthma); above and beyond the unpaid leave benefits provided to all Americans through the FMLA. Every pregnant woman in my office has used this benefit to stay out for the duration of their pregnancies (since March), and this is in addition to the normal maternity leave. Welcome to France people! If Dems succeed in taking Executive and Legislative braches, they will make these the policies of the land. As BS and AOC like to say - these are human rights [bull****]

In practice, the national security sector (DOD and numerous agencies) could have significantly increased manning, and still met the extremely enthusiastic pseudoscience guidelines from the CDC. This is because the government has a shocking amount of facilities/real estate (office space). This includes many government and contract facilities with large "telework" areas; including some sites that were supposedly closed due to Base Realignment and Closure - BRAC (but not really closed). These telework facilities already existed before CV-19, and helped reduce commuter traffic in the NCR, and in other areas of the US. But DOD in their infinite wisdom, counts workers physically sitting in these remote telework facilities, against the approved/authorized workforce count for sub-units like my home office. My good friend is the only physically located in his section, since others on the same team are sitting hundreds of miles away at telework facilities (I'd say that's some good ****ing social distancing). But they force my friend to take every other week off, since DOD mandates his organization can't have more than 25% of its workforce working - when the real intent of the pseudoscience was that they wouldn't be sitting in the same area next to each other. That's just one anecdote, but if you apply the same stupid across all of DOD, you will have somewhat of a picture.
Asimov
Posts: 117837
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee
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Quote:
Why haven't they confirmed it, or ruled it out?


Because then all the social distancing and masks get shown to be bull**** that can be solved by WASHING YOUR ****ING HANDS.

They aren't going to admit they played the american public for fools. Even when it's stuck in their face and proven openly. They still won't admit it. They'll do everything they can, including killing thousands or hundreds of thousands to keep from loosing face.

If it's not obvious by now, what is it going to take?

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Captainkidd
Posts: 1940
Incept: 2010-05-25

Houston, Texas
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Quote:
Why haven't they confirmed it, or ruled it out?


They can't.
They went all in on The Turn....
4th Street Blew the hand.....
But they're playing through The River....

They might not win, but they're very certain they won't lose.

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A lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than a thousand men with guns. --Mario Puzo

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. -- Henry Ford
Chromehill
Posts: 56
Incept: 2010-03-03

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@Asimov - I agree, no way they admit they were wrong at this point in time. Question is, why did they ignore the fecal transmission in the first place? The article I linked was March 20th, studies posted to Gastroenterology (American Gastroenterological Association) on March 3rd. Obvious the infectious disease experts knew of the fecal transmission vector, why was this ignored?

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"Power, like the reproductive muscle, longs to be exercised, often without judgement or right" - Gerry Spence
Tickerguy
Posts: 166189
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Chromehill - - Because it is then screamingly obvious that the health care system vectored this virus into the people most-easily killed.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Technica
Posts: 6
Incept: 2020-04-10

Oklahoma
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Top story on Mercola now: Conclusive Proof Masks Do Not Inhibit Viral Spread

https://articles.mercola.com/sites/artic....


Story at-a-glance

=== Not a single randomized controlled trial with verified outcome has been able to detect a statistically significant advantage of wearing a mask versus not wearing a mask, when it comes to preventing infectious viral illness

=== If there were any significant advantage to wearing a mask to reduce infection risk to either the wearer or others in the vicinity, then it would have been detected in at least one of these trials, yet there's no sign of such a benefit

=== There is no evidence that masks are of any utility for preventing infection by either stopping the aerosol particles from coming out, or from going in. You're not helping the people around you by wearing a mask, and you're not helping yourself avoid the disease by wearing a mask

=== Infectious viral respiratory diseases primarily spread via very fine aerosol particles that are in suspension in the air. Any mask that allows you to breathe therefore allows for transmission of aerosolized viruses

=== All-cause mortality data are not affected by reporting bias. A detailed study of the current data of all-cause mortality shows the all-cause mortality this past winter was no different, statistically, from previous decades. COVID-19 is not a killer disease, and this pandemic has not brought anything out of the ordinary in terms of death toll
-------------------------------------------------------

Reading the comments below the article Mercola is really getting raked over the coals.
Tickerguy
Posts: 166189
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A True American Patriot!
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The all-cause claim is not yet proved.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Invisiblesun
Posts: 82
Incept: 2020-04-08

Maryland
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Empirically we know mask policies are ineffective at mitigating Covid because we don't see any evidence in the case data of masks changing infection curves. If such evidence existed we would see it touted.

A German study tried to make the case and it got ridiculed. The problem was that three of the four cities analyzed had data that did not support the hypothesis. A fourth city did but the analysis was challenged for not taking into account other mitigations that simultaneously were reducing infections.

Mask mandates presume as fact a thesis that has never been proven: That asymptomatic people express sufficient virus through breathing to infect others. Without this symptom, it is insanity for non-symptomatic people to mask. Observe that the reporting on asymptomatic spread is inconsistent - what is the truth? No one cares.

And that is where we are today with Covid. Officials don't care what is true. The truth doesn't matter. We know this in many ways. One hint is to consider that officials don't care what type of mask people wear. The mask can be functionally useless at masking anything! But it is a mask and wearing it shows obedience to the social police.


Kikknback
Posts: 58
Incept: 2020-03-17

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Captainkidd wrote..
They went all in on The Turn...
4th Street Blew the hand.....
But they're playing through The River....

They might not win, but they're very certain they won't lose.


The public had the nuts on the flop.
The Communists pushed all their chips in at the turn.
The citizens called the bet, and laid the nuts down on the table.
The Communist government ignored the nuts and thinks there is a joker in the deck that will come at the river, and save them.
Expat_tom
Posts: 16
Incept: 2020-07-06

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Tickerguy:

I am not arguing that point. All nations make these same choices with any infectious disease when they demand immunization and health records and the diseases of which they chose to screen for, or seek to limit and those they ignore.

What I was speaking of was the cost, the total cost of ownership, of either engaging or mitigation. Different nations are taking different courses. Island nations like New Zealand and the Philippines have an easier time with such aggressive infection control measures, but the cost comes at the other end, in terms of lost GDP, trade, tourism, and such.

What I am speaking of is what the total cost of ownership will be of the two methods. We know there is an economic impact to shutdowns, strict infection controls, quarantine, and the rest, and there is an economic impact to attempting to achieve herd immunity through healthcare costs and as of yet unknown ongoing impacts if many of the recovered are debilitated.

What we don't know yet is what is going to be most cost effective, and that may very well be locale dependant, depending on what if any long term effects there are from the survivors, as of which are unknown.

It is far easier for a Hawaii or New Zealand to make the choice to eat the cost of mitigation, mandatory quarantine of arrivals and the lose of revenue from tourism and trade, than it is for a large nation with multiple weak or non-existing borders protections.
Asimov
Posts: 117837
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee
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Quote:
Question is, why did they ignore the fecal transmission in the first place?


Political correctness. You can't say a certain group of people are nasty ****-eaters. Apparently.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Tickerguy
Posts: 166189
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Expat_tom -- Nope. You presume that those measures are maintained indefinitely. If they are not then all you have done is shift time, not outcome.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Kikknback
Posts: 58
Incept: 2020-03-17

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Technica wrote..
Top story on Mercola now: Conclusive Proof Masks Do Not Inhibit Viral Spread


How could this Denis Rancourt PhD., Physicist, claim CV-19 is spread through aerosols, when there are scientific studies out proving it is not being spread through aerosol / droplets, and the evidence from the steps the medical community took in Singapore proving it is not being spread through aerosol / droplets? How in the heck could he have missed that?

Great interview with lots of facts, but you can't use it because the Karen's would just point to his aerosol comments that go against the truth.
Ebt
Posts: 253
Incept: 2018-12-22

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Increased long-lasting T-Cell immunity in recovered Covid19 patient. Just talking about this the other day.

There's a certain % of people who are already naturally resistant to Covid19, and that % will likely increase at it stays around longer and more people acquire better T-Cell immunity. It is independent of antibodies. Antibodies are good - but they are not the only way.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-s....
Purplefang
Posts: 94
Incept: 2010-03-28

Oklahoma
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The agenda has been driving everything the CDC / Fauci does. They don't care about people's health. The major goal is to mandate the vaccines. They want to torture / terrorize us and then offer the injection as the way to end our suffering.

How many people has Walmart killed because they waited 6 months to put a mask requirement in place?

If the retail stores are so dangerous than I will just have to order online to reduce my risk. Amazon wins again.

I am still dining at my usual restaurants till they close them. Oklahoma City exempted restaurant customers from wearing masks. I guess they could not figure out how to eat with a mask on.
Expat_tom
Posts: 16
Incept: 2020-07-06

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Tickerguy: I believe you may be assigning presumptions to me that I do not hold at all.

My background is in trade, specifically moving millions of dollars worth across Asia and Latin America, so I tend to view things through an economic lense and am not as focused on the epidemiology, except as it relates to similar patterns of human behavior.

In a First Mover Advantage one would seek to gain as much market share as possible, however we routinely find there is a Second Mover Advantage by those that learn the lessons of the failures of the first to market. They leverage the research and innovations without the overhead of the debt incurred.

As it applies here, I see no First Mover Advantage in gaining market share in case counts, the First Movers are paying a huge price in terms of R&D developing protocols and expending human capital, while other nations are simply waiting on the chance to pounce.

They are not planning on attempting to mitigate and isolate forever, they are simply making someone else bear the cost.

We saw this happen with Apple and their iPod line. The Rio and others were first to market, and while they didn't gain the market share, they did the lions share of the research and proved it was a viable product line, once those early players were able to establish conditions that were favorable to their adversary, in this case Apple, they pounced out from behind their walled garden they had lived in quarantine under.

Clearly there is a time-shift taking place, an intentional one. After we have borne the brunt of the cost, and have managed to learn all there is to learn, and can treat in the most cost effective ways possible, the other players will take advantage of that and relax their postures.

Which returns to my original premise. Which one will have they greater cost benefit ratio, those that fought it head on, or those that have isolated and delayed so they can leverage the work and expense of others.
Expat_tom
Posts: 16
Incept: 2020-07-06

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Tickerguy:
On a the different subject of the epidemiology have you had a chance to review this study at of japan?

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/9/2....

I'd like to hear your point by point rebuttal to the study in the context of what Stars and Stripes wrote about these Super Spreading events

https://www.stripes.com/news/us/superspr....

It seems we really have two problems.
1. The Healthcare worker vector on the possible fecal oral route
2. The super spreaders

I believe you are right that we are not doing about to combat (1) given our inability to look around the world at what works and just copy it.

But I am interested in hearing your thoughts on the study and the arguments put forth about (2).
Whitehat
Posts: 2686
Incept: 2017-06-27

Gone West
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@Asimov -- in regards to your point concerning political correctness, perhaps this is the reason that places such as NYC are opening so many things EXCEPT bars and interior dining restaurants. It relates to a post i made that the authorities must secretly know the vectors, time frames and ultimate burnout. Perhaps they really do know that less hygienic people (****-eaters) are a major variable in the viral transmission to vulnerable people. At least in this city, overall the regulars at bars and eating establishments are not the healthiest to say the least. In NYC with the limited outdoor eating that they created, only the hardiest people are bothering. Perhaps that is the plan.

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Keeping the underground economy keeps the peace and allows rebellious elements to protest their condition without actually protesting the government.

What were you doing over the years as your children's future was being destroyed? Do not expect them to fix your mistakes or tolerate you for them.
Tickerguy
Posts: 166189
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@Expat_tom - Super-spread events appear to be relatively rare (otherwise everyone would have been infected) and by definition have an outsize effect on the Rt of the disease, and therefore on back-computation if you were to get rid of them R0 would plummet like a stone.

What we've yet to find are documented cases of such super-spread events where the index is an actual non-symptomatic. There have been multiple attempted scaremongering runs at this but so far all have been disproved. The monster was the lady in South Korea in the church, originally claimed to be asymptomatic. It was later shown that not only was she symptomatic it was ridiculously obvious she was sick to anyone who looked at her.

This sort of intentional lying is part and parcel of all the other lies being peddled about this bug.

That doesn't surprise one bit -- but if you take her out of the picture then what happens to the actual Rt of South Korea, given not just her direct infection of others but also all the downstream infections that came from her repeated presence in the church?

This is why I've said that if you really want to make an impact one place you could do so would be to either strongly suggest or even mandate temperature checks at the door for any business or other public place that allows more than "X" people inside at once (say, 5 or 10) and for all employees in a public-facing firm (who typically contact hundreds of customers a day.) It's objective, it's fast, it costs nothing beyond the one-time expense for the IR temperature gun (~$50) and a set of batteries once a week or whatever (in a high volume place use rechargables, obviously), it creates no records and it interrupts super-spread events with a high degree of reliability. You may not get them all but if you were to get rid of 50% of them if they're 2 of the 3 points of an 3.0 R0 then you've taken a MASSIVE whack out of the transmission chain.

There is no other single mitigation that has the potential to get Rt below 1.0 at essentially zero cost to the economy.

Mass asymptomatic spread is an unproved assertion. While it's likely possible for you to spread the bug asymptomatically the data points to this being difficult and thus rare, while symptomatic persons are another matter entirely. Testing for fever is cheap while it won't catch everyone it doesn't have to; even if it only gets half that's an utterly monstrous percentage of the whole.

And don't tell me that people will stay home voluntarily if they feel "off"; that's bull**** and you know it. Especially for those at the lower end of the economic spectrum, which just happen to be those who have the most contact with others while at work it's ******ned near universal for economic reasons.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Bodhi
Posts: 2347
Incept: 2008-02-23

Canton, GA
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Tickerguy wrote..
And don't tell me that people will stay home voluntarily if they feel "off"; that's bull**** and you know it. Especially for those at the lower end of the economic spectrum, which just happen to be those who have the most contact with others while at work it's ******ned near universal for economic reasons.


Amen. I've seen people come in to work looking like death warmed over.

At my last job I was the operations manager. My cousin was one of the sales people. One day she showed up with her daughter who was too sick for school. I immediately sent her home. She didn't speak to me for a couple of weeks. Oh well. smiley
Step55
Posts: 28
Incept: 2009-02-27

Connecticut - Massachusetts
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I returned from a visit to Lowe's with a thought. Rather than the required mask, spread of any virus would be lessened with store sinks, soap and single use towels at the entrance. I also agree with TG's temperature gun since an employee is already out front counting heads and limiting entrance.
Asimov
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East Tennessee
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Quote:
Why, for instance, didn't the earliest infections in the United States, or the infamous Lake of the Ozarks party, spur lots of cases, while a much smaller gathering at a Michigan bar produced nearly 200? Why out of countless large gatherings held church services, soccer games, choir rehearsals, and Zumba classes did only a fraction ignite significant infections?

Part of the uneven spread of the coronavirus and the phenomenon of superspreading can be explained by extreme individual variation in infectivity, researchers say.


It can also be easily explained by fecal->oral. For the church services example, one person with it (asymptomatic or not, they had it in their feces) touched the door handle with it on their hand. Or touched the pew next to where the pastor was standing while they paused to pay their respects. Then everybody else touched that same door handle - or whatever.

For the case mentioned of the bar: Maybe the bartender had it. Maybe somebody who cleaned the night before had it and smeared it on every table they cleaned because they didn't bother to put bleach in the water that time. We know this bug will live for DAYS on surfaces, so it being done the day before isn't any issue at all.

Why is it only a fraction of the cases we see these big spreading events?

Occam's razor says that the simplest explanation is probably true. It's a much simpler explanation that one person didn't wash their hands than that there's some asymptomatic respiratory super spreader that we've still never seen.

The last study trying to prove the effectiveness of masks showed that, even in laboratory conditions, capturing the exhale of SYMPTOMATIC people for 30 minutes was showing negative virus samples in the vast majority of people. This simply ISN'T a respiratory virus for the most part.

Is it possible that you can catch it from somebody coughing? Certainly. Is it possible that you can catch it from somebody asymptomatic? I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say yes, it's possible. We've yet to see a single case where this is shown to be, but it's logically possible so it shouldn't be ruled out entirely.

However, in every single case where they try to claim asymptomatic respiratory spread, it's a much simpler explanation that we're seeing fecal->oral or even asymptomatic fecal->oral.

My opinion is that it's orders of magnitude more likely that we are seeing asymptomatic fecal->oral spread than that we're seeing asymptomatic respiratory spread. None of the evidence that I've seen for asymptomatic respiratory spread rules out fecal->oral.

If we're going to have asymptomatic spread, asymptomatic fecal->oral makes mores sense from a biological and epidemiological standpoint as well.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Frat
Posts: 2979
Incept: 2009-07-15

NKY
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@Asi, etc.

One of my issues with the fecal-oral spread (I'm absolutely NOT discounting it; in fact, I usually throw it out there whenever possible) is that ... truly, is this it? Are people so ****ing filthy they don't wash their hands enough and then spread literal **** to everyone else?

I'm not what I would call a germophobe, but I have always hated public door handles - bathroom handles, specifically for every reason you can think of. Seriously, people, WASH YOUR DAMN HANDS!

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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
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