More Evidence: Covid19 Is NOT Primarily Droplet/Aerosol
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FACT: Masks against Covid-19 do not work because under the laws of physics they can't and both governors and mayors have and continue to kill your grandfather for political reasons.
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2020-07-14 15:04 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 2598 references Ignore this thread
More Evidence: Covid19 Is NOT Primarily Droplet/Aerosol
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This paper, sent to me by someone in the biosciences field, is fascinating.

It purports to claim that coronavirus, but not rhinoviruses or influenza, may be stopped by surgical masks.  That is, it's one of those that people would cite as "source control."

Well, actually not, if you read the study itself.

Why?

Because the entire premise behind source control for something like Covid is that unsuspecting people do shed the virus from their mouth and nose and this is the primary source vector for infection.

As I've noted I haven't believed this since the outbreak began for several reasons, all of which are rooted in physics and basic logic.

First, we had the multiple instances of transmission among people in both Hong Kong and Wuhan in apartment buildings where there were no traps on the sinks into the sewer line, the people did not know each other and were separated by many floors.  It's utterly implausible that such an environment would support an aerosol or droplet transmission out of one's mouth or nose.  There is simply no reasonable explanation for transmission other than in feces which, in a non-trapped sink, can and does blow back out the line due to air pressure shifts as another drain or toilet is used and thus blows fine material back out the other sink.  Now you contact it, you have it on your hands, and you're done.

Note that there have been no reported incidents of this sort in America.  America has near-100% compliance with building codes in this regard, and thus all sinks have traps.  In all these months you'd have expected to see that which happened at least twice that was documented in Wuhan and Hong Kong if indeed there was some other plausible explanation.  Take away the one reasonable vector from the circumstance and transmission does not happen.  This is not proof but it is evidence that backs up my original hypothesis.

In addition there have been crazy-prevalence outbreaks in homeless shelters and meatpacking houses, both of which feature a lot of people living in small, confined spaces with shared toilet facilities.  It also completely explains the transmission in nursing homes where a huge percentage, typically around 4 in 10 of the residents, are partially or entirely incontinent.  In other words there is **** literally everywhere.

Second, all airborne and droplet viruses thus far, including coronaviruses, influenza and rhinovirus, are responsive to absolute humidity in the inverse.  That is, the higher the absolute humidity the lower the transmission.  Until about 10-15 years ago we didn't know why this happened every year; there were multiple theories including people spending more time indoors and thus closer to one another, etc, but none of them managed to pass a random controlled trial as dispositive. In addition attempts to find observational evidence kept running into contrary, confounding factors where the pattern held even though there was no change in human behavior such as voluntary time outdoors (e.g. prisons, mental institutions, etc.)

Then we found a reasonable explanation that happened to curve-fit exactly upon the incidence of these diseases.  It rests in the fact that a higher absolute humidity increases the odds on an almost-exactly ratable basis that a water vapor particle will strike another one, and eventually obtain enough mass that it no longer is suspended and falls to the ground.  There it harms nobody.

And the light came on, slowly, in a few people's heads.

The amazing part of the "slowly" is that like so much of what is called "discovery" it really shouldn't be.  After all, the laws of physics haven't changed since there was a physical world.  Nor is how aggregates and suspensions work, including suspended water vapor (we call that "humidity") anything novel either.  It's not like we haven't studied how clouds form, including the seeding, aggregation, etc -- for a very long time.  Who would have thought that virons in and on such particles would behave the same way?  Oh, maybe anyone who has a brain and actually was awake during all those classes before they started with their "medical" stuff?

Why do I keep coming back to this? I shouldn't have to; after all, you need only look here.  Every single year.  Up, down, up, down, like..... the seasons.  Then you look south of the equator where the seasons are reversed and.... big surprise -- their flu season corresponds with winter there too! They get hammered in July, we get hammered in January.

What a shock.  NOT.

Notice, however, that in Florida, Texas and elsewhere we have all sorts of cases and yet..... it's summer.  Really, really hot.  And indeed, where we have the biggest problem right now it's the hottest!  That's backward and unless you can explain why one particular virus that is allegedly transmitted via respiratory droplets and aerosols does not follow the laws of physics that every other one does, including other coronaviruses, you have a problem with your theory.

Why?

Because of the basics of science: Correlation only suggests causation but the absence of correlation is nearly-always hard proof that whatever alleged causative factor you are citing is wrong.

In other words the virus ripping through homeless shelters, nursing homes and meatpacking facilities, all of which have radically outsized infection rates and all of which also feature high-density shared toilet living facilities and cross-contamination with fecal matter, isn't proof but certainly is supportive of fecal/oral contact being a primary route of transmission.

But then when you add in the lack of absolute humidity inverse correlation we have a problem with Covid-19 because it is not behaving in the way that physics tells us any virus carried by aerosol and droplets should and, empirically over more than a hundred years of experience, does.

Is this proof that it is never transmitted by droplet or aerosol?  Of course not.  You can, I'm sure, transmit it that way.  But to argue that this is the primary mechanism is at this point flat-out silly because the lack of correlation makes that nearly impossible to be the case.  Further, targeting "mitigations" at the minority of an issue is flat-out stupid unless you have no other choice because the impact you can have is tiny, while you're ignoring where you can actually make a difference.  That ought to be obvious; if you can solve 80% of a problem why would you instead choose to focus on 20% of it?

I'll give you that answer: Politicians do this all the time and so do screaming pressure groups and those who intend to profit from someone else's misery.  You see, if a politician actually solves a problem then they lose it as an issue as does anyone who is making money on someone else's misfortune.  If they can credibly claim to be working on it but know they will fail because they are intentionally ignoring the root of the problem then they keep it as an issue and their means of profit.

Again, basic logic.

Well now we have another problem -- which is the study I referenced above.

Here's the punchline, but you have to read the whole thing and not just the abstract:

Among the samples collected without a face mask, we found that the majority of participants with influenza virus and coronavirus infection did not shed detectable virus in respiratory droplets or aerosols, whereas for rhinovirus we detected virus in aerosols in 19 of 34 (56%) participants (compared to 4 of 10 (40%) for coronavirus and 8 of 23 (35%) for influenza). For those who did shed virus in respiratory droplets and aerosols, viral load in both tended to be low (Fig. 1). 

Wait..... what?

The majority of confirmed coronavirus infections without a face mask did not shed detectable virus in respiratory droplets or aerosols?  And for those who did, the minority, there was very little virus present?

Oh, it gets better.

The major limitation of our study was the large proportion of participants with undetectable viral shedding in exhaled breath for each of the viruses studied. We could have increased the sampling duration beyond 30 min to increase the viral shedding being captured, at the cost of acceptability in some participants.

So over a space of 30 minutes they were unable to capture any viral shedding in a large proportion of participants with confirmed, known infections?

Excuse me?

Indeed they go on to explain that perhaps forced coughing might have helped.

Wait..... forced coughing?

So the issue, as is explained in the study, is that non-coughing or sneezing people are by and large not shedding virus in their ordinary breath.  If they're coughing, well, then the game's different.  That's not unexpected; someone who is actively sick is, well, actively sick.

And shedding virus.

But many coronavirus infections are not symptomatic for cough.  And among those actively sick but not coughing they had great difficulty in finding virus expelled under lab conditions with extremely sensitive equipment even though all of the people they studied were actively sick as every one of them had a fever.

There goes the theory of asymptomatic shedding of infectious virus out one's mouth or nose, the entire premise on which the "MaskHole" nonsense is predicated.

smiley

Remember that this is a laboratory study with laboratory confirmed infectious cases and fever. The participants are deliberately breathing into a device that captures all of their breath (not some random, tiny fraction you would inhale from someone in your vicinity.)  In other words if there's virus in that breath they're going to find it because they're capturing and examining all of it.  You, on the other hand, are taking a very tiny random sample of the airspace that was formerly in the other person's lungs.  A bit of quick back-of-the-envelope calculation given the roughly half-liter volume in an average breath compared with the airspace around a human being between you and another human being shows quite quickly that only a very tiny fraction of whatever I exhale you will inhale.

So we now have two correlations that don't match, not one.

First, the virus is not responding to the inverse of absolute humidity which all airborne and droplet-transmitted virus diseases we have studied do, and is why we have a flu and cold season.

Second, an attempt to collect in a laboratory samples comprising 100% of the exhaled breath from febrile and laboratory confirmed persons failed to find any virus in a huge percentage of said participants absent an active cough or sneeze.  Obviously if there's nothing there then there's nothing for a mask to trap.

That's two correlations which should be both present and neither one is.

If you maintain the fiction that asymptomatic, airborne or droplet spread of Covid-19 is the primary or even material means of transmission and thus any mitigation should be aimed there you are not a scientist of any sort.  You are a political hack as your theorem has been disproved by not just one missing correlation, but two.

What does this leave?

Manual spread from feces, which happens to match exactly with the known pattern of infectiousness for both norovirus and polio, both of which we know are primarily spread this way.

Take your mask and shove it up your ass where, used as a buttplug, it might actually do some good.

Oh, and then if you want more bad news, here's another one for you, this from Clinton News Network:

The body's T cell response may also be an important factor for immunity, but it won't be the answer. T cells help our immune system by killing off infected cells and activating other immune cells to fight off the infection. We know people make robust and sometimes long-lasting T cell responses to cold causing coronaviruses.

The author says this is cause to "wear a mask and practice social distancing."

For how long?  Forever.

Why?  Because.if there is no durable antibody response then no vaccine will work either.  Vaccines work by building antibody response.  If it wanes then the vaccine is worthless; you get the shot and two months later - you get the virus.  Oops.

I said long ago, indeed, based on the science, that there was no reason to believe that we'd ever have a vaccine.  This is why, along with the fact that no previous coronavirus vaccine has ever worked, and it's not like we haven't tried either.

No, we will not "social distance" or wear masks "forever".  In fact, we should tell leaders to stuff it right here and now on the strength of the evidence; there is no durable antibody response and as such a vaccine is a waste of time and money; it will fail.  We cannot maintain "mitigations" forever, yet without a vaccine there is no time at which we will be able to drop it without the virus coming back.  Therefore the only means of suppression is to allow it to circulate on a continuing basis so that you will get it and, as the antibodies wane, you'll get it again before the antibody protection disappears entirely.  Which, by the way, we already know happens otherwise that only 17% of the people on Diamond Princess got infected would be impossible.

Is that a great situation?  No, but it leaves us with only one answer: Suck it up and deal with it like an adult; viruses have been with us forever, and will be with us forever.  Exactly two have ever been eradicated in the history of humankind.  Covid-19 will not be the third.

smiley

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Greenacr
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Northern Ohio
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Just had a visit today with my PCP who I have seen for the last 30 years. Straight shooter, former flight surgeon tells it like it is with his patients.

Long discussion on Caronavirus. Basically thought I was having a discussion with Ticker Guy regarding the way this virus is transmitted. He is convinced of the fecal vector and that masks are nothing but control.... He talked about Fauci as a charlatan who is only interested in solutions that generate $$ for Pharma. Had a lot of negatives to say about his handling of the AIDs crisis in the 80's. In his opinion washing hands is key......

Got my RX's renewed as well as additional Antibiotics (Augmenting & Z-pack) with several refills that I can use to add to my own medicine chest. It's nice to have a Dr that is a prepper as well.
Kokobeware
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Quite frankly, one of the best Tickers to date. This isn't difficult to understand and it's presented perfectly. I'll be sending this to my contact list. Mahalo KD!
Eaandkw
Posts: 60
Incept: 2014-11-22

Now in Texas
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I'm not worried about wearing a mask forever. As soon as November 4th gets here the MSM and the governments with magically forget that the corona virus was even a thing. That is of course if Trump loses the election. If he wins then all bets are off.

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Winding it down
Veeger
Posts: 100
Incept: 2013-02-13

Washington state
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I've been noticing where the high incidences of outbreaks are these days. Not only is it in high(er) density ****-eaters populations but it's in all the warm (est) areas of the country. What happens in the summer?? Yup, folks go out and play, they go to parks, they go where they need to use a public restroom, many are pit toilets, basic beach bathrooms, etc. They stop at gas stations, use portables, etc. How 'clean' do you suppose they are? Many are closed but ya gotta take a leak or crap periodically and it won't always be conveniently when you're at home.

Eaandkw- the 'mask' issue will end pretty quickly either way. We 'know' the virus won't attack protesters if their cause is righteous! /s If Trump wins,(and especially if the either or both the House and Senate stay red) the blue states will crap themselves and want 'aid'. They will be less likely to get extra help and will need it worse by then...
Thelazer
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Davenport, Fl
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I'm sure you've seen, but it appears the testing data in Florida, is in fact being "Juiced" so to speak. Breaking in the last 24 hours.
Tickerguy
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Yep. Flat out fraud.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Tarponchaser
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@thelazer

Do you have link(s) to what you're referring to in Florida?
Crossthread
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Cognitive Co-Dependency is when a normal rational person, internalizes irrational illogical presentations, and somehow reconciles them to fit their scripted indoctrination of logical analysis.
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Jeepguy
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Ohio
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Ohio is making it out like the world is ending, and they're talking about going to zip code mask requirements though they act like another lockdown will happen!

This is pure BULL****!
Patentleathershoes
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On the Daisy Chain
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I haven't been able to use a public toilet since this all started. The thought makes me ill.

Your research has been pretty clear on this issue since the beginning. Thanks.

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8by8at800
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Spot on, sir.

Here in Colorado our governor just stated this on his Facebook page about people who refuse to wear a mask: "So if you're a selfish bastard and wearing a mask to protect others isn't enough of reason to do so, then maybe protecting yourself is?" (https://www.newsweek.com/colorado-govern....

I just went to the Contact Us portion of the governor's website and got this message:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Oops, something went wrong.

Form not found.

If this error message is not helpful, please let us know. We'll try to get back to you with a better answer.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

How convenient.
Pete_brewster
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Canada
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After Trump leaves office you won't hear another word about COVID-19---except when a government employee wants to fake post-COVID syndrome in an attempt to make a fraudulent claim for long-term disability benefits.

The doctors are baffled by the condition, we'll be told. They won't be. Most know a malingerer when they see one. It's just bad for business to tell Karen, "get your fat lazy ass back to work tomorrow."
Loonster
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West Michigan
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Hey Karl, I believe the latest research has shown that virus transmission is more closely related with both relative humidity and temperature than it is with absolute humidity.
Budxr7
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Mass
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This may be a nit-pick but I think this was done on the OG sars-cov and not big daddy Covid. Regardless, point taken about airborne virus and mask. Where's the RCT study on absolute humidity? I think that's more important. You'll never convince people that we aren't all the angel of death wiping people out with a suggestive breath.

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Tickerguy
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@Budxr7 - There isn't one; an RCT for absolute humidity is impossible for obvious reasons; what "trial" you're in would be blatantly obvious to everyone in it even if you used something like the McKinley Climate Lab at Eglin for it (which you COULD, provided you had the money; they can actually make it SNOW in the building!) But there IS a contemporary study that couldn't find virus in non-coughing or sneezing breath even for febrile patients with confirmed infections under laboratory conditions.

How do you infect someone with something if it's not in the source and given that coronaviruses DO follow the viral transmission model in aerosol and droplets that all the others follow, well....

Again correlation is NOT proof of causation -- only decent evidence of a causal link. A decent number of correlations do not prove up.

But LACK OF correlation IS nearly-irrefutable proof that the causation you claim DOES NOT exist.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Budxr7
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Mass
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Right, looking at the profile of flu season, which is more appropriately described as airborne virus season, should, at least in scientific circles, dispel any nonsense about primary transmission. That it hasn't is just an indictment on our entire society that we've been played.

Being "novel" as it is, we probably haven't had enough time to compare the seasonal variance between northern and Southern Hemispheres and infection rates but I'm sure there is mounting evidence there as well.

I keep coming back to the same conclusion on every argument and "study" though. There is ZERO consistency on data collection or veracity there of. This, no, none, zip, zilch nada conclusion to be made. GIGO.

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Neither a borrower nor a lender be;
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And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.
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Tickerguy
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Budxr7 - Equador got hammered very early, and of course being on the equator..... yep.

There was actually a peer reviewed paper that made the claim that because Wuhan and NYC got it when it was still relatively cold (late winter/early spring) this was evidence of aerosol/droplet transmission.

Ok, except for one problem -- it was peer reviewed in MID JUNE when the cranking of the case rate in Miami, Phoenix and other places was already well underway. The "reviewers" didn't kick the paper back for the outrageously factually false claim made in that regard, and it is actually being CITED as one of the papers in support of aerosol and droplet transmission!

I spat my espresso when I read that one. That wasn't the only one; then there was the HCQ "studies" that had data that couldn't be confirmed, and which The Lancet had to retract.

That's the problem with so-called "science" these days. You CANNOT trust a single thing in a journal especially the abstract; you have to read the ENTIRE ****ING STUDY. Like this one on the putative potential "power" of masking when the study disclosed that unless you're coughing even if you're running a fever and have a CONFIRMED case you don't expel virus the majority of the time AT ALL.

Obviously that which is not in the source cannot be filtered at the source and that's a worst-case scenario too -- not only are you confirmed positive you're running a fever which is trivially detectable via outside instrumentation without contact AND YOU STILL don't shed the virus out your mouth or nose with ordinary breathing!

Science is dead.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me

Goforbroke
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The tadpole is gone due to CV-19. I am hunkering down.
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Quote:
Science is dead.
It is because you can't trust anyone anymore. Funding by corporations? Etc. Etc. Nope.

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Invisiblesun
Posts: 82
Incept: 2020-04-08

Maryland
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This study implies the Covid aerosols are larger than those for influenza and that makes them more likely to be filtered by the surgical mask. Would larger aerosol particles be more or less impacted by greater relative humidity?

What we know is influenza spread plummets in the summer. Not only that but there is research claiming social distancing for Covid in late February shutdown the 2019-2020 flu season. All good.

So why have Covid infections persisted in high humidity states? And why has social distancing not crushed the Covid curve?

The logical answer is Covid infections do not spread the same way as influenza. The spread cannot be solely respiratory! If it were then we would have observed a discontinuity in the infection curve once mask policies went into effect. Such discontinuities are not apparent. Furthermore while distancing slowed Covid spread, it did not crush the curve. In fact the US states show two behaviors - there is classic pandemic burn out in the northeast. Elsewhere there is slow churn of the virus - it doesn't appear it will be stopped no matter the effort.

Perhaps a hint on the key infection source - there is a fishing boat in Argentina where the crew quarantined, tested negative, set out to sea for many weeks, and caught Covid. Was the head & tank fully clean when they left port? Maybe. But then what? How does one hide from a virus if it is anywhere and everywhere?


Tickerguy
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@Goforbroke - It's gotten ridiculous in the last 10 years or so. The infamous folks who submitted complete gibberish to allegedly "reviewed" journals and got it published several years ago peeled my wig back.

You have to go back to the source data and then run it through the basic filter of correlation and see if it fits. If you fail there, and a LOT of so-called papers do then it's obvious horse****. If it passes there then you have to go further, read the ENTIRE text and then go see if you can find and prove up the data sources as legitimate and in-line with reason; there are all sorts of tricks like the HCQ "study" where their initial loading dose was large enough that if you took it by accident it would be considered a poisoning! That was another one recently that came close to costing me a keyboard.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Budxr7
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Mass
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So maybe I misinterpreted the study, and maybe others did as well so I'll say it, but one of my conclusions was "well how the hell do any of these spread by droplet or aerosol?" Is it primarily contaminated surfaces from people coughing on and touching stuff? I mean they did say you can't get the flu from sitting next to somebody for 30 minutes as long as they're not coughing. Me thinks cleaning services may be a good investment moving forward (if only to capitalize on irrational fears).

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Neither a borrower nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend,
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.
-Polonius
Tickerguy
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@Invisiblesun -
Quote:
In fact the US states show two behaviors - there is classic pandemic burn out in the northeast. Elsewhere there is slow churn of the virus - it doesn't appear it will be stopped no matter the effort.

Ah, grasshopper, you're wrong! Look at the positive test numbers as a percentage of population and adjust for density (e.g. NY and IL have extremely high density in one city, so you need a correction factor) and then compare against, say, Florida.

You'll see something interesting and you should also be able to predict when the inflection point will show up. Florida is a bit tougher to norm because it has three major population centers instead of one, although it can be argued that Tampa/St.Pete/Orlando is almost one in terms of the "leakiness" of tribes in that area. I've got a running prediction on that one and it'll be interesting to see if it holds.
Quote:
Perhaps a hint on the key infection source - there is a fishing boat in Argentina where the crew quarantined, tested negative, set out to sea for many weeks, and caught Covid. Was the head & tank fully clean when they left port? Maybe. But then what? How does one hide from a virus if it is anywhere and everywhere?

Fully clean eh? Hehehehe.... surrrreeeeee... As someone who used to own a fairly large vessel... but not THAT large! That Argentine boat is an interesting case, in that once offshore they can discharge directly to sea from the heads, but when in coastal waters and in port they cannot. Of course it's rather hard for someone to go FIVE viral replication periods without symptoms and then suddenly pop up with them. The odds of going through that many generations of transmission with everyone asymptomatic is on a statistical basis extraordinarily unlikely -- NOT zero, but VERY unlikely.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Tickerguy
Posts: 166254
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@Budxr7 - A coughing or sneezing person reliably expelled detectable virus. Remember these were under lab conditions, so if you breathed it, they were able to find it. In the real world the dilution factor is huge even in "close contact", but remember too that you only need ONE <PM2.5 with virons on it and you're ****ed.

But yes, the bottom line is that asymptomatic transmission, while I'm sure it CAN happen through the air, is not enough to sustain spread. SYMPTOMATIC transmission is, especially in winter. But in summer, nope, which is why you CAN get the flu or a cold in the summer but it's rare, while in the winter it happens all the time.

This virus doesn't follow those rules -- therefore, it's not being spread that way. Given that we KNOW it's in **** the transmission mechanism is obvious.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me

Loonster
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West Michigan
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Quote:
...there are all sorts of tricks like the HCQ "study" where their initial loading dose was large enough that if you took it by accident it would be considered a poisoning! That was another one recently that came close to costing me a keyboard.


Is this the study that used a 1200mg daily dosage for 8-10 days, and then switched to a lower dosage of 800mg for duration of symptoms?

(For everyone else reading, 400mg/day is considered max safe dosage for lupus patients. Malaria prophylaxis is 400mg/week. Malaria treatment uses a very high dose but they taper it down real quick. )
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