ABSOLUTE **FACTS** ON COVID19 @RealDonaldTrump
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FACT: Masks against Covid-19 do not work because under the laws of physics they can't and both governors and mayors have and continue to kill your grandfather for political reasons.
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2020-07-09 19:01 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 2049 references Ignore this thread
ABSOLUTE **FACTS** ON COVID19 @RealDonaldTrump
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Fact: Sweden has had 74,333 confirmed cases

Fact: Sweden has had 5,500 deaths.

Fact: Sweden has approximately 10 million residents, with the largest number by far in and around Stockholm (~2.4 million..)

Fact: Sweden did not lock down anything, has not passed any mandatory mask ordinances or constrained the people.  Instead they told their citizens to act like adults, rather than allowing them to be infantile screaming children (as we did here in the US.)

Fact: The death rate in Sweden from Covid-19 has fallen to an effective zero.

Fact: The case rate in Sweden is also falling precipitously.  On a log chart the case rate is effectively flat.

Fact: SWEDEN HAS OBTAINED HERD IMMUNITY AND THEIR DOCUMENTED CASE RATE IS 0.7% OF THEIR POPULATION!

What?

That's impossible, for a virus with an R0 of 3.0, right?

I don't care what epidemiologists assert, or what anyone else asserts: It has happened.

When you eliminate whatever is not possible whatever is left must be true, no matter how much you'd prefer it not be.  Your task then becomes to determine why it is true.

We know from the CDC that somewhere "around" 10x as many people have had Covid as have tested positive.  This number is somewhat "fuzzy", but that's the CDC's (and everyone else's) "best guess", given the data we have.  Now, in the US, we're pushing people to get tested but we can't feed that test requirement on a reasonably expeditious basis; three months into this it is taking multiple days to get results back.  Therefore the number of alleged "positives" is not only fanciful it's outright garbage.  RT-PCR tests are unreliable to start with; they have a material false positive rate.  But if you won't test people on a systematic and unchanged basis from a symptom (or not) predicate then the data you generate wobbles around and is worthless.  

I've detected a number of these anomalies in the data here, and in the early days I called bull**** on the Wuhan data for the same reason -- China was clearly changing the terms to get tested although I couldn't prove it, because I'm not there.  I don't need to prove it; a virus does not "magically" infect people on a step-function basis.  Over a large population that does not happen so when it does you've got a data discontinuity -- that is, what you have is junk.

But it's very hard to not count bodies.

People get mad if you don't count them -- or try to count them twice.

Sweden has had 5,500 deaths.  They have 10 million people in their population.  That's a death rate from this bug of of one in 1,800, with virtually all of them being old and co-morbid individuals.

To put in percentage terms it's a rate of 0.06% in the population.

Or, if you prefer, since we have about 330 million citizens, about 33 times that is 181,000 deaths in the US.

Total.

We're at 125,590 total today.

That's because we spread it out, but didn't change a thing.  Ultimately, we'll wind up about where they are.

I remind you that yesterday their total was one death.

One.

For them, it's over.

For us, it's nearly over.

We're three, maybe four week behind them if we quit dicking around.

How is this possible?

Because we are counting only "positives" that result in serious disease (as were they) and there is a serious amount of pre-existing immunity in the population, which exactly none of the models or any of the so-called "experts" said there was, and in fact today they they say there isn't.

Yes there is.

We knew this.

We knew it was a fact.

We knew it in early March.

We knew it within a week after Diamond Princess disembarked, when one person in a 2-person cabin got it, and the other did not.

They were  not just asymptomatic, as we tested them -- they never got the disease at all.

That's impossible, unless they were immune.

THEY WERE IMMUNE.

A LOT OF US ARE IMMUNE.

A LOT OF PEOPLE WORLDWIDE ARE IMMUNE.

We don't know what bug caused them to be immune, but they are.

And thus nobody knows who is immune and who is not, but the fact that a huge percentage of the population either will not have any symptoms at all or won't get the virus at all is known.

That's scientific FACT.

Now recompute your "models" for what we know is herd suppression in Sweden among those who will care if they get the bug -- that is, those who will die.

Nobody gives a wet crap about someone who gets it and doesn't get sick.

UNDER THE MEDICAL DEFINITION OF DISEASE IF YOU HAVE NO SYMPTOMS YOU ARE NOT DISEASED.

Being RT-PCR positive for a virus DOES NOT, legally, medically or otherwise make you diseased.

You're only diseased if a disorder in your body is produced.

In a healthy human adult man there are approximately 39 trillion bacteria.  Right now.  You expel some ten trillion when you take a crap, but they recover -- and quite quickly too.  By the next day they're all there again and the band plays on!

If none of them produce a disorder in your body you are not diseased.

If you "get" Covid-19 but do not have a disorder as a result you are not diseased.

It does not matter if you can "pass it on"; you shed many millions of bacteria and viruses from your hands, mouth, nose and ******* every single day.  Most of the ones on your hands came from one of your other orifices, or someone else's orifices, or from some other organism who left them for you on a surface somewhere, or which were floating around in the air.

So what?

Folks, we're being stupid here.  You're hiding under your desk when five to ten trillion bacteria are in your body right ****ing now and virons typically outnumber bacteria ten to one in nature so it's probable there are 100 trillion virus particles in your body!

It's entirely reasonable to believe that one crap from an average human may expel ten or more trillion virons.

And virtually all of them will be replaced within the next 12-24 hours before you take the next crap.

AN ASYMPTOMATIC PERSON IS NOT SICK.

May I note that IPV, used for polio (you know, the shot you get?) does not stop you from getting it?  In fact you probably did -- and do -- get it.

Oh, you didn't know that?

WELL THEN YOU'RE A ****ING MORON!

The IPV stops you from getting diseased.  That is, having a disorder as a result of exposure.  How do we know this?  Because if you have taken IPV you may still get colonized and expel polio virus -- live virus -- in your feces.

Do you know why they give you oral (live) polio vaccine in the third world?  There are a fair number of unvaccinated people and OPV will reduce the shedding from your feces -- since you take it in and the immune reaction is centered in your digestive system -- to an effective zero.  IPV does not do that because it's a shot in your arm.

Would we count you as a "polio case" if you had it in your feces but never got sick?

ACCORDING TO THE CDC AND COVID TESTING RESULTS, YEP!

Guess what?  That's a scam, it's a lie, and you had ****ing better wake up and make them stop this ****.

IT'S A SCAM.

If you have no disorder in your body you are not diseased.

Period.

No other definition makes any sense given that if I go take a **** right now I expel trillions of viable viruses and trillions more of viable bacteria.  I, you, and everyone else expel and shed virus and bacteria all the damn time, every single day.

Only illness matters.

And, in the end, only all-cause death matters.

Which, in the US, is now below baseline.

 

There is no longer a threat in the United States. Indeed with all-cause death now below baseline it is quite probable that by the end of the year there will be no excess death at all, statistically speaking.

Yes, people have and will die.

People die every day.

But the rate of death is below baseline for this time of year.

Dead is dead, why doesn't matter.  How much virus I have, or which virus, doesn't matter unless that specific virus makes me ill.

That specific virus out of the trillions of virus particles that are in my body right now, and in yours, and in everyone else's.

These are facts.

You can take your hysteria -- and your masks -- and shove 'em up your ass.

smiley

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User Info ABSOLUTE **FACTS** ON COVID19 @RealDonaldTrump in forum [Market-Ticker]
Bodhi
Posts: 2352
Incept: 2008-02-23

Canton, GA
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Quote:
But the rate of death is below baseline for this time of year.


I'd say that's a slight understatement given the all-cause mortality chart you posted. Obviously those who were about to die anyway had their expiration date pulled forward by 2-3 months.
Wifi
Posts: 3579
Incept: 2013-02-13

Seagrove Beach
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More folks are learning that it is indeed a scam..."don't be a sheep".


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Hurricane Evacuation Plan
1.Grab Beer
2.Run Like Hell
M1919a2
Posts: 740
Incept: 2015-07-18

Washington
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@Tickerguy

"You're only diseased if a disorder in your body is produced."

We got lotsa that, the outward signs being irrational and violent reactions to the non-aggression of others (i.e. not wearing a used 'Kotex' on your face), I believe, in a bygone era, that would have been sufficient evidence for two men in white throwing you into a RUBBER ROOM!

Reason: needed a 'that'
Eaandkw
Posts: 60
Incept: 2014-11-22

Now in Texas
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Call me a conspiracy theorist but I think this will be perfectly timed. Meaning the U.S. will continue to lose its collective mind until November 4th. Then magically the clouds will part and the Corona-chan will just kinda sort itself out and the goldfish brained Americans will move on to the next emergency outrage.

I am quickly losing faith in just about everything. The more I watch old George Carlin videos on youtube the more I think he was a prophet instead of a comedian.

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Winding it down
Tickerguy
Posts: 166254
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Bodhi - The initial weekly numbers are ALWAYS short by quite a lot. But -- the trend was obvious to me about a month ago, and now it's screamingly obvious to anyone who pays attention.

Whether it will STAY below baseline by enough so that by the end of the year we have "recovered" all the excess deaths is the question. We will probably have a very good guess somewhere around the end of the third quarter, but we will not KNOW until the end of January of next year, more or less.

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If you will not force justice to be done by any means necessary when over 50,000 are murdered by political hacks from both parties do not complain or expect my help when you or someone you love dies at their hand. -- Me
Twainfan2
Posts: 191
Incept: 2018-12-04

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It's too bad that orange haired fat bastard won't read this and even if he did, he wouldn't do **** about it. He seems hell bent on doing everything he can to lose this election.
Pete_brewster
Posts: 78
Incept: 2015-12-10

Canada
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Government employees have effectively been on paid vacation for four months. Karen is having the time of her life, spending her days playing with the dogs, re-decorating the house, having mimosas for breakfast, all for an hour of work a day, if that. It's worth just to not have to bathe or even shave her legs except for a booty call.

Of course she'll insist on staying home until a vaccine is developed, knowing full well that will appear the first week of never.
Invisiblesun
Posts: 82
Incept: 2020-04-08

Maryland
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Perfect & timely post. Funny thing, the data we are seeing now, despite giving the panic mob one more spin, is proving lockdowns an utter farce. Oh, now they say Texas locked down too early! How is that again? There is no right time to lockdown. In an open society, and that is our culture and economy, no city or community can hide from an infectious virus. You would need to shutdown for 6 - 9 months and that is stupid talk.

From 2006 we have an assessment of epidemic responses. The conclusion

"Experience has shown that communities faced with epidemics or other adverse events respond best and with the least anxiety when the normal social functioning of the community is least disrupted."

Living normal is what we did for the 1958 and 1969 epidemics. Why did the rules change in 2020? We know why. But a jury would never convict.

"https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexBerenson/....

M1919a2
Posts: 740
Incept: 2015-07-18

Washington
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@Twainfan2

"It's too bad that orange haired fat bastard won't read this and even if he did, he wouldn't do **** about it. He seems hell bent on doing everything he can to lose this election."

I don't know how many times you've been around the block nor how many counties fairs you've been to, but I know one thing - He's President of the United States and you ain't.

Further, you bet he or someone very close to him 'with his ear' has. You may not know this, your comment will resound throughout ETERNITY as in 'a bell once rung, resounds forever"!

Be careful of your mouth, just saying!

Reason: fix things
Flappingeagle
Posts: 3818
Incept: 2011-04-14

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Along with Sweden I have also been watching Chile. If Chile continues to follow its current trend it will give a lot of validity to what you are saying.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Nadavegan
Posts: 264
Incept: 2017-05-03

The South
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"You expel some ten trillion when you take a crap, but they recover -- and quite quickly too. By the next day they're all there again and the band plays on!"

Mine mostly play the trombone!

@Flap, I have employees in Chile. They have been locked in their houses under armed guard for several weeks now. Today they said "Did you hear, the President of Brazil has the coronoavirus? And of course, he will be fine like everyone else who gets it."

People are figuring it out. Just not the US.

And I stand by this statement: our incurious and obtuse media should be shot as traitors. 10,000 stories of a lifetime in the midst of all this, and those bastards are just stoking fear and disinformation.
Chromehill
Posts: 56
Incept: 2010-03-03

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I have a friend who back in March when all the lockdowns started, was talking to medical people at Johns Hopkins in Baltimore. They said, if we do nothing, it is over in July. Karl's 3 to 4 weeks will be very close.

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"Power, like the reproductive muscle, longs to be exercised, often without judgement or right" - Gerry Spence
Mannfm11
Posts: 6407
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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I have been working on those numbers myself. The last detailed study I did had this flu year (week 40 2019 forward was about 40,000 ahead of my adjusted trend, which includes adjustment for an aging population. There was a bad flu this winter as well and some of those deaths are probably linked to that. I too suspect the majority of deaths were on their way out and we will know in another month or 2, if we don't get a major spike.

Mass testing after the horse is out of the barn is next to useless. The $64,000 question is how does Singapore have 45,000 cases and 26 deaths? Clearly they did mass testing early, but they were set up to do so. I doubt they ever had 10 cases for every diagnosed case. That and they probably don't count deaths already on the way out the door.

I suspect that is what is going on in Texas. I have heard they are adding contacts without positive tests to the infected total. Thus the infected to test percentage isn't as high as they are stating. There is an increase in deaths, but that is to be expected, as the hospitals now have plenty of people to kill. Under normal terms, you face about a 3% chance of getting killed by a hospital, as it is.

Why are the American health agencies such ****ing liars? I can see these people outside rubbing toilet paper on dirt, because it is plain they don't know their ass from a hole in the ground. Every economical and useful solution has been discarded for a costly and deadly one. They keep telling us we have to wait on a vaccine, when a novice knows it won't work. Who gets the tens of billions? Some of these people need to be executed with chainsaws in public, slowly.

With the press and the swamp, there isn't much Trump can do. The Bush branch of the Republican Party run Texas and Florida. They are part of the NWO and would sell us down the drain for the globalist cause. I sent the Governor a letter online, informing him what a bunch of bull**** his mask policy is. I hope he got 1000 more. The Lt. Governor here is one of the few politicians in urban states with a nut sack. They are burning down the USA to get Trump and they will finish the job when he is gone. Why else would corporate heads get behind communists?

There was a lot of bull**** promotion of this virus. Scenes from foreign hospitals, presented as American. A death camp hospital in NYC, killing patients. In fact, you have no sympathetic family member access, if the hospital gets you. People walking down the street and falling over dead. Where has that happened here? Phony as a $3 bill. Gates running a show, right when it broke, complete with discussion as to how they were going to promote it. That bull**** and censorship of opposition started immediately.

John Cullen, who gets a little off, said there was a high threat of Earth being hit be a space rock in late April. A couple actually hit, one in Nigeria and another in Turkey or Central Asia. Cullen thinks that might have been the why behind the makeshift hospitals erected, then taken down. Though farfetched, it makes sense. Widespread knowledge of the potential would create panic that made the virus look tame. It wouldn't take much of a rock hitting a city to make an Earthbound natural disaster look tame. I think what raises this as plausible was the taking down of those facilities immediately afterwards.

Where are the deaths in Asia? It appears to me they want the Western Hemisphere and Europe back in line. North and South America and Western Europe seem to be the epicenter of this. This appears to be more of an attack, than a virus. Why else would idiocy prevail so entirely?

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Mannfm11
Posts: 6407
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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@Chromhill, the numbers are lining up for that. We are coming up on 3.2 million positive tests. Using 50 million as the 10X target, this should be done at 5 million positives, if there is 50% cross immunity. I suspect there are many more cases in these exploding states now than 10X. They are picking up cases right now, because testing here has been ramped up significantly and directed.

Texas has a nice data and mapping system. I study ir daily.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsd....

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Greenacr
Posts: 105
Incept: 2016-03-15

Northern Ohio
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It is probably our exposure to other variants of the caronavirus that have given a lot of people immunity to Covid-19. My guess is that there are common genetic components between these different strains (why else some of the false positives) that enable a healthy person to fight this new strain off.
Mannfm11
Posts: 6407
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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BTW, I took my monthly trip to Costco. Before entry, I put the mask on, then moved it down to my chin, found some nice meat, restocked my coffee, milk and eggs and left. I got a couple of stares, but no comments. In the meantime, I thought up a comeback should anyone comment.

File this one away.

"If your mask works so well, why are you worried about mine?"

Those things get nasty quick.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Mannfm11
Posts: 6407
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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Another BTW. The average age in Sweden is 41.2 years. Deaths from CV19 are highly congruent with age, rapidly increasing. A comparison would be New Jersey, which is 40. Deaths are likely low in Texas, because median age is a little over 35. Using stated cases, New Jersey is a complete disaster vs Sweden, 15548 deaths. Looks like they magically dug up 1800 extra fatalities the last few days. Democrats keep digging up fatalities, people are going to wonder why their governors did so poorly, in a complete shutdown. All this **** for nothing.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Greenrebellion
Posts: 687
Incept: 2009-01-03

Michigan
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Vitamin d folks. Yes you can overdose but there are 4 major rct's in the works right now looking at vitamin d and Covid after the compelling observational study out of Phillipines.

Could vitamin D explain lower mortality in summer especially in southern states?

No need to supplement in summer, just get some sun midday.
Ktrosper
Posts: 4257
Incept: 2010-04-06

ft collins co
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Vit D is definitely a story here:
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/07/09....

KD. Right on the ****ing money from the start.
Thank you.

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D
Tsherry
Posts: 3284
Incept: 2008-12-09

Spokane WA
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I asked my family members on FB last night, "So, what happens when everyone tests positive?"

Brother: "Good luck with that. Let me know how it works out for you."

Sister in law: "Then at least one of your brothers and several nieces and nephews will be at mortal risk."

OMFG.

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Omne mendacium est.
M1919a2
Posts: 740
Incept: 2015-07-18

Washington
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@Mannfm11

"BTW, I took my monthly trip to Costco. Before entry, I put the mask on, then moved it down to my chin ..."

I went into my COSTCO two days ago - NO FREAKIN' MASK ON and NO BODY SAID SQUAT!

WHY?

And I'm NOT going to explain it to you!

But I will describe what THEY see

71 your old, 5'9", 175lbs, clearly not muscular, blue jeans, Danner Pendleton made in the USA (Portland, OR) leather boots, Trump 2020 Pro-Choice T-Shirt, Trump Camo USA cap which on the crest above the USA is MY RANGER over PARATROOP wings walking with a CLEAR and DISTINCT stride. ARMED?, TRAINED? and never in COMBAT and not carrying. All avoid direct eye contact, I'm an old man, WHY?

The same reason that 49 years before as a scared ****less Butter Bar I stood up to and in the motto of the SAS - WHO DARE WIN!

I not only say NO - I act NO to the BULL ****!

Doctor.d
Posts: 67
Incept: 2011-06-19

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Nasdaq hit an all time high today. My wife asked me if the "Market Ticker guy" ever talks about the Market anymore. I shrugged.

Any chance you might again address what's going on in the Capital Markets - which is the thing that first brought us here.

**** COVID! I don't give a **** about that scam anymore. The bigger scam is what the FED is doing, using this nonsense as their excuse.
Jeepguy
Posts: 304
Incept: 2020-02-07

Ohio
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@Mangymutt left from the last post...

No I would put the children first, but **** a mask, I don't need one, I'd catch a fish, I'd hunt blast a squirrel, a groundhog, oh buddy you better believe no kid in my eye sight would go hungry!!

And I know how to cook, so it'll taste good!!

**** the stores, **** the Government!!
Where there's a will there's a way!!

I don't need a Mask, my shotgun provides the blast of food!! I can trap and I can fish, **** em!!
Drole
Posts: 56
Incept: 2015-11-17

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Regarding Sweden, one thing sort of bothers me vs what has been written here re fecal oral and immigrants. As I understand it, Malmo has a very high immigrant population but the numbers for Skane County seem in line with the other counties. Perhaps it's a lack of testing? Or fewer people per housing unit/toilet? Or maybe they all got the Covid earlier on as I haven't looked at numbers week by week.


Personally, I have been thinking about selling a rental property since pre-corona. Karl's move made me think perhaps I could sell now despite covid, despite riots, etc. My realtor is telling me there is actually a little boom going on with properties going for well over ask prices. I understand a boom in the rural areas, but this is less than 5 miles outside of the downtown of a big city. Seems odd to me. Realtor says people are scared. Still seems odd.


Wish I could say that I think people are getting tired of masks and restrictions, but I don't see it.
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