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 Hypothesis: Hospitals ARE The Vector @RealDonaldTrump
Tinman 5k posts, incept 2008-02-16
2020-03-28 15:10:51

My sister says doctors are being Furloughed due to regular customers refusing regular care. She is taking a 50% pay cut to keep their practice open. The country is turning their back on the sick care system.
Jc3 446 posts, incept 2020-03-02
2020-03-28 15:15:20

@Bluemarrow: Agree with Workerbee.
Why should she supply docs to put herself in danger?

While we're on Hospital Acquired Bonuses, in 1973 I had a leg re-break to lengthen my left leg(tibia fibia area, lower leg). Got suture line infection + 1 year of antibiotics, and a permanent paper-thin scar that opens up if it is slightly bumped and then takes months to a year to reclose.
Jesjohn94 922 posts, incept 2019-05-07
2020-03-28 15:51:31

I find it amusing Cuomo is so pissed at Trump talking about a federal quarantine. All these Governors, counties and mayors are loving their time in the sun to make their BS proclamations. I hope Trump actually does it.
Orangemanbadeh 1k posts, incept 2019-04-22
2020-03-28 15:52:11

What is your take on this spread?
Fumei 3k posts, incept 2019-01-08
2020-03-28 15:52:29

Bluemarrow, if she is masochistic then she should just donate the masks to her betters. If not, then she should waste those fuckers' time by haggling over the price of the masks and calling in sick repeatedly and then quit. If she does hand over the masks, they ought to be after they are used.
Idiom 311 posts, incept 2015-02-20
2020-03-28 15:52:40

If its spread in fecal matter then how come it blitzes through healthy young sailors on most noble Aircraft Carriers?
Twainfan2 1k posts, incept 2018-12-04
2020-03-28 15:54:35

One thing that drives me crazy is people comparing 1918 to today. They should go look up how poor sanitation and medical technology was 100+ years ago.

@Tinman that's a good thing... let that crap infested disaster of a sick care system crash and burn. Maybe all those fat fucking zombies will start to lose some weight .. or die.. either way I don't give a shit. When I go out in public it amazes me just how fat people are... 250 lbs looks like a toothpick. Maybe it's a blessing because clearly they aren't procreating (they can't even find their own junk to do so) which means they aren't filling up the Welfare rolls.
Jesjohn94 922 posts, incept 2019-05-07
2020-03-28 16:22:52

UK has not run out of ICU beds. Analysis of COVID-19 patients ending up in ICU is 50% survival.
Tickerguy 190k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2020-03-28 16:24:51

@Jesjohn94 - That's a shockingly high number given our "stock" ICU/vent statistic, which is 50% survive to discharge.

Too small a sample IMHO; likely those more-likely to survive are out and those less are still in there.

The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.
Phdude 203 posts, incept 2009-05-26
2020-03-28 16:36:21

@Twainfan2: On one hand, sanitation in 1918 was certainly worse, and there were still a lot of outhouses.

On the other hand, the US population centers in 1918 were not overran by shit-eating turd worlders that end up touching EVERYTHING related to all supply chains.

So yes, sanitation wise & infrastructure wise, we're better, but we're actually far worse population wise, at least in major urban centers.
Tickerguy 190k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2020-03-28 16:37:28

I don't think the 1918/19 strain spread in feces, but then again I don't know that anyone is certain of it.

What I DO know is that lockdowns and quarantines did not do DICK to stop the spread of polio, and that IS spread in feces (in fact, almost-exclusively in feces.)

The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.
Jollyrogers 57 posts, incept 2012-07-30
2020-03-28 16:51:01

@Idiom - not sure if I am a believer in the fecal path or not, but other than average age of the crew, Navy ships are probably riskier than cruise ships (cruise ship staff excepted).

Enlisted Sailors sleep in very large berthing areas with dozens of sailors sharing showers, toilets, sinks, and urinals. Even junior officers tend to live in staterooms of 6 or more with a shared sink in the room, but have to go down a passageway to get to showers. Only very senior officers - squadron COs and ship department heads - at least O5s, and senior get their own rooms. To be completely honest, some of the folks may go a couple of days between showers, let alone washing their hands. Sometimes there just isn't time to do so before eating because of the pace of operations.

The toilets and urinals are salt water and the toilets do not have lids, just seats, so any flush is going to push some atomized feces into the air. Showers may be stalls or open bay. Haven't spent the night on a carrier in a long time, but it's 5000 people in a very small space.
Tickerguy 190k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2020-03-28 16:54:13

As @Jollyrogers said a warship is about as "close quarters" as you can get. One cough is going to nail a whole shit-ton of people.

The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.
Jollyrogers 57 posts, incept 2012-07-30
2020-03-28 17:08:45

@Idiom - I should also add that all food is served cafeteria style in large dining halls (called mess decks). Trays and silverware are sanitized at high temperatures, but you basically reach into a basket and grab your utensils, grab your plate or bowl off a stack, and your tray off a stack. That goes for most of the officers as well.
Flappingeagle 4k posts, incept 2011-04-14
2020-03-28 17:31:31

Those are some good graphs that were originally linked by Geck above.

Scroll down to the normalized charts. Almost no location is going above 1,000 cases per million population. If the US hits and stabilizes at 1,000/million then we are at most 1 turn, maybe 1.5, from that point.


Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave
Sumdumguy 14 posts, incept 2020-03-14
2020-03-28 17:32:04

So the "stay at home" order went into effect in NYC as far as I recall at 8 pm on March 22 so essentially at the turn to March 23. Mean incubation time for the virus is about 5 days based on newest data. On March 28 (yesterday to today) the daily cases went down from way above 3000 for three days in a row to just about 2500. This is roughly the same level as March 21 and if this holds then that would support the idea that what they are doing in NY is working as intended, and likely within one propagation cycle for the virus.
I am using data from NYC directly:
I would love to know what evidence there is that NYC policies are not working. I would understand the claim that one day of data is not evidence either way, but not anything more emphatic.
Tickerguy 190k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2020-03-28 17:36:16

Huh @Sumdumguy?

NY stats yesterday delta was 7377, day before 6447, etc....

Cuomo's order was STATE WIDE. I'm looking STATE WIDE.

Incidentally, you do realize that NY **CITY** is not testing IN HOSPITALS unless it will change **CLINICAL** decisions. That's the latest bullshit out of there, so the numbers in NYC are, well.... crap.

The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.

Tickerguy 190k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2020-03-28 17:39:04

Huh @Sumdumguy?

NY stats yesterday delta was 7377, day before 6447, etc....

Deltas back to 14 Mar:


The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.
Orangemanbadeh 1k posts, incept 2019-04-22
2020-03-28 17:54:31

Also one thing not factored in to NYC is the number of people that have already gotten the hell out of Dodge. I personally know of at least one douchebag that fled all the way to his parents ranch in Wisconsin or Wyoming and several others that went to the four corners of the nation.

Not saying he was already infected or anything, but some of those people were so when they do get sick, they won't show up in NYC stats...they will however create lots of other clusterfuckery in other locations.
Pominoz 208 posts, incept 2008-02-05
2020-03-28 17:54:39

I have a question for everyone. Why is Italy at 166 deaths per million so far ahead of everyone else. It surely cant just be age(2nd eldest population) because Japan (oldest) have 0.2 deaths per million. I know in Italy they were nearing the end of a bad flu season (3 million approx infections). Did this seasonal flu soften up the elderly population.
Tickerguy 190k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2020-03-28 17:56:17

@Pominoz - Yes. In addition while many CLAIM Italy has a "first class" health care system that's complete bullshit. They are near overload during an ordinary flu season to start with, among other things, and on top of it while Japan has an old population Italy has one that is fucking PACKED with diabetic, hypertensive and cardiac wrecks that literally have one foot in a hole they had to pay someone else to dig because they couldn't pick up their own goddamn socks.

That nation loses a CRAZY number of old people every month, flu or no flu.

The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.

Cbucket 62 posts, incept 2011-03-04
2020-03-28 18:07:14

It looks like the London authorities are constructing the largest petri dish in history right in the centre of London.

What could possibly go wrong.


Reason: nuke not shown. Trying again + spelling
Pharmadude 224 posts, incept 2020-03-26
2020-03-28 18:13:09

A significant portion of coronavirus patients experience diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, and/or abdominal discomfort before the onset of respiratory symptoms (Note: est 20% infected are asymptomatic and can still spread virus)

Viral RNA is detectable in fecal samples from suspected cases, indicating that the virus sheds into the stool ($#!+)

Viral gastrointestinal infection and potential fecal-oral transmission can last even after viral clearance from the respiratory tract (Note: CDC is still recommending patient discharge after clinical clearance - testing not required - dumb@$$3$)


This is dated March 9th.

We need to become religious about hand washing!!!!
Sumdumguy 14 posts, incept 2020-03-14
2020-03-28 18:53:44
The numbers for NY State are just slightly padded numbers for NYC (and those are actually swung a lot by the main epicenter - Queens). If you do not trust one then no reason to trust the other. All you see for the state is NYC and some close distance commuters from Long Island and Westchester, but these latter numbers are not going to move the stats that much.
I am seeing very similar numbers as you for yesterday's delta: 7,285
Within error the same number.
Today's delta is 6,056
On a statewide basis the latest numbers mirror NYC, as expected.
And for the record, I am not arguing about one day fluctuations or arguing your point. I do want to see more days (maybe two or three) before judging whether the bozos in NY are doing something right.
Tickerguy 190k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2020-03-28 18:55:20

@Sumdumguy -- The "containment" measures should lead to a collapse in new cases on a rate basis within AT MOST two cycle times (and probably one.) It hasn't.

The reason it won't is that it's not being spread in the community by the things impacted by the constraints (closing bars, restaurants, parks, etc.)

What's that leave?

The hospitals.

BTW that's the same reason the Italian case rate hasn't collapsed.

The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.

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