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 Hypothesis: Hospitals ARE The Vector @RealDonaldTrump
Marc2mrkt 1k posts, incept 2008-04-12
2020-03-28 23:49:47

RE: polio, when I first came to TW back in 1987, I noticed that there were quite a few people here with leg braces, crutches and gimps. Over the years, as conditions improved, you rarely see any new cases. Likewise hepatitis went way down.

Q1: So lockdown cities that are virus factories (NY, NOLA, DET, etc.) and contain the hospital spread while letting most other areas go back to business as usual? Or are lockdowns useless? Bannon wants to increase lockdowns.

Q2: What do you suggest for a place like Guam given that their medical system is weak? (pop 163K) Protect the elders/sick and let it run it course? I think they will be halting all incoming flights. (as I've read, the local .gov does not have authority, it has to go through the FAA/.mil). I'd like to see you get some type of SuperVizar appointment to help them. They could use your insight.
Dagge 269 posts, incept 2008-05-16
2020-03-28 23:56:40

I wonder if anybody has the number of serious cases of Covid19 who were already on HCQ.
Tickerguy 195k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2020-03-28 23:56:26

Bannon can blow me.

For Guam, yep. Were I in charge I'd lock down the old and sick people and support them (deliveries of food, telemedicine, etc -- and have the government pay for it as it's going to be 1/100th of the price of a ride on a vent that will fail 90% of the time) and explain very clearly that there simply isn't the equipment and material to treat them all and, even worse, if they get it bad the best available, IF it's available, won't save a lot of them.

I bet they'll go for it voluntarily. It'll go through there, it will kill a few young people but not many, and then it'll be over for Guam. The problem for the older folks is that once they reopen the airports given the tourism imported cases are going to remain a problem for them. While herd immunity prevents widespread outbreaks it doesn't stop singular transmissions.

On the other hand I'm pretty convinced most of this transmission ISN'T vapor phase unless someone is actively sick or you have very close personal contact (e.g. sleeping in the same bed.) Big risk is fecal/oral and that's a monster because it's silent, it's surface based and it's a real bitch to get under control environmentally. Very good personal hygiene (WASH THE DAMN HANDS obsessively after contact with ANYTHING or ANYONE that might be contaminated) is the best mitigating factor but the level of obsession required for really good protection is really only achievable in a professional setting like a hospital -- it's impossible when you're out and about doing your daily thing.

The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.
Tickerguy 195k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2020-03-28 23:56:57

@Dagge -- Look at malarial nations and their Covid-19 rates... you might notice a pattern smiley

The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.
Msheff 118 posts, incept 2018-05-03
2020-03-28 23:59:49

Do Japan's data fit the hypothesis, I wonder?
(Pre-)weekend numbers and maps here:
a color-coded one here:
and one map here:
Tickerguy 195k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2020-03-29 00:05:39


It's very, very difficult to control a fecal/oral infectious disease in a health care setting. It requires absolutely fastidious adherence to procedure when it comes to hands. One fuckup and you walk out the door with it, then in somewhere like Tokyo you get on a train, grab a rail, and the next guy who grabs it now has the virus.

That HAS to be stopped. I am not buying the oral droplet thing as a major route of transmission EXCEPT when symptomatic. But fecal/oral? Oh yeah. If one thing going through the history of polio will teach you it's that the fecal/oral route is ridiculously efficient; that son-of-a-bitch had an R0 of FIVE! In a health care setting you're concentrating disease so take the random risk of someone spreading it to you via that route and multiply it by about a thousand that if you work in that building you walk out the door with it on your hands unless you are DAMN SURE you wash those fuckers EVERY TIME before and after EVERY contact with a potentially contaminated person or thing.

Remember it's not just you -- it's that if you're contaminate and you contaminate a SURFACE the next person who touches it is fucked unless THEY also follow the protocol. That's why EVERYONE has to do it anywhere positive people are concentrated or you become the place where it spreads.

Japan is ahead of the game bigly with their general population's level of personal hygiene but that doesn't get anywhere near the level required in a hospital.

I still think the seroconversion rate .vs. actual positive tests is 100:1. We'll see if that continues to hold.

The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.

Printlife 261 posts, incept 2018-05-22
2020-03-29 00:19:29

Rather than a mask, perhaps gloves are better for protection. Still need to keep them away from your face. Perhaps practice with ink on the gloves or cut hot peppers. Learn the no touch method of removing the gloves.

For Japan, the northern island of Hokkaido has far more cases per capita, matches winter as a contributing factor.

Vaccination required? Not if we leave.
Now in Florida, heart rate dropping, nicer people
Marc2mrkt 1k posts, incept 2008-04-12
2020-03-29 00:19:36

Got it, thanks Karl. Guam is going to have some problems as many people are larger in size. In addition, besides the .mil, I think there is only 7% white population there. Most others are from Asian island nations.
Gynojunkie 76 posts, incept 2020-03-19
2020-03-29 00:32:09

"O2 and monitoring SpO2 is IMHO the right path, but it's concerning they're getting no results out of the French protocol. Ain't liking that."

I too cringed at that observation. I could not tell, though, where in the course of care the HCQ had been applied. Waiting until conventional supportive care fails--when the pulmonary architecture is saturated with virus/fluids/inflammatory products--which sets you up for ARDS--is NOT the time to throw HCQ at the problem.

Wish I knew the sequencing.....
Tickerguy 195k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2020-03-29 00:29:18

@Printlife - Gloves do NOTHING. The virus cannot go through intact skin and I bet even broken skin within reason doesn't matter because of how this bug targets. I'm not at all sure you'd actually get a clinical case of it if you managed to get it in cut on your skin.

Now for something that can go through intact skin (chemical exposure) or a bug that can take advantage of defects (and most of us have some whether we realize it or not) it's a different matter. In health care blood-born disease is a very real problem generally (HIV anyone?) and you have no idea generally what other issues a patient has. So yeah, gloves are good, but not to stop transmission of this thing.

The problem with thinking you're protected with gloves is that you're actually worse off with something that's not blood-born since you can't really wash them repeatedly with soap and water; the abrasion will break them. Further, your hands MUST be clean before you don them out of a package or you'll contaminate them and of course once you doff them you have to do it correctly and then immediately wash your hands (again). Again, lots of reasons to use them in health care, but this virus isn't one of them.

Yeah, if you cut some habaneros with gloves on you'll learn REAL FAST to keep your gloved hands away from your face... and off your dick too.

The big problem with a fecal/oral bug isn't just you, it's cross-contamination generally. That's why the only protocol that works is before and after contact with any surface, item or person that could be contaminated you wash your hands -- on both sides of the potential contaminated contact.

That way YOU can't contaminate anything or anyone and IT cannot contaminate you.

Trust me -- absolutely NOBODY follows that protocol in an American hospital. Zero. I've never seen ANYONE do it. Ever.

The hands off the face thing is actually the secondary line of defense since it only protects you and does not address the cross-contamination risk for everyone else.

The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.
Tickerguy 195k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2020-03-29 00:32:44

@Gynojunkie -- Yep. IMHO time for that is right at original presentation when you send them home with the O2 bottle they go with a few pills too.

Waiting until you're sliding down the pipe is not the right course of action; once you get into the ARDS regime you're in deep shit and the "traditional" protocol for it is only resulting in 10-15% survival rates. Those are SHITTY odds.

The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.

Gynojunkie 76 posts, incept 2020-03-19
2020-03-29 00:47:00

Another good post by Bill Buppert of ZeroGov. He GETS IT:

"Disease and the Will to Power by Bill Buppert"

Publishers Note: I have been carrying on my life as normal during this latest wholly owned subsidiary of government madness. I continue to go to work and I have used this as an opportunity to conduct a gaps analysis on my preparations. One of my life-long friends has been sharing our home with us when he and his wife escaped their expat location overseas just in the nick of time (days before they locked it down).

Use this time to do the same and get to the range.

If you get the stimulus [to inflation] check, use it for guns and ammo.

A short PSA for the government:

You wearing a gun right now? If not, unfuck yourself.

Get proficient, spicy time is coming. -BB

A lesson I learned from this ancient culture is the notion of megalopsychon (a term expressed in Aristotles ethics), a sense of grandeur that was superseded by the Christian value of humility. There is no word for it in Romance languages; in Arabic it is called Shhmbest translated as nonsmall. If you take risks and face your fate with dignity, there is nothing you can do that makes you small; if you dont take risks, there is nothing you can do that makes you grand, nothing.

― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder

Ill keep this short because I have been very busy contending with the idiocy of government from the local to the federal level and everything in between.

This is not a pandemic.

CDC Data 2019-20 Flu Season


There are an estimated 38 million to 54 million flu illnesses, versus 103,000 COVID-19 cases, so COVID-19 is less than 1% at worst, 0.3% to 0.2% of the number of influenza illnesses. In other words, 368 to 524 times more influenza illnesses vs. COVID-19. And the number of this years influenza illnesses is somewhat lower than the average over the years. And remember, these are illnesses, not tested positive, which means zip.

This is an ancillary upper respiratory complication in the large majority of cases that replicate some earlier flu variants.

You will find that the actual death numbers are low. You will also discover that the science behind this is incredibly compromised as is all science in the west today thanks to the cognitive infection of federal and government funding of science. This is especially true in the current climate (pun intended) of the virulent Neo-Lysenkoism of climate alarmists. Not to mention the scientism or things that have the cosmetic attributes of science but without its rigor. These poorly educated reprobates have no grasp of empiricism, scientific methodology and an infantile worship of flawed models in everything they do.

You have to ask two questions to get at the heart of this:

Why are the elderly dying? They are dying because like humans for eternity before them, they have natural expiration dates. What you are seeing is some of the same cognitive malpractice you see in climate alarmism. The conflation of correlation with causation and a tendency to bend evidentiary rules so that one can cherry-pick premises to fit the conclusion formed before investigation began.

The old and frail are dying of comorbidity. In medicine, comorbidity is the presence of one or more additional conditions co-occurring with a primary condition; in the countable sense of the term, a comorbidity is each additional condition. Rare is the end of life one primary cause but rather a bundle of conditions and ephemera racing to score the coup de grace on the usually witting victim. Unless I expire in a fight in peacetime or wartime, I have a very good sense of my body mechanics starting to slow down or function less effectively.

In this case the elderly are dying because that is ultimately their career path whether we like it or not. In this case, it would be instructive to see the autopsy reports and I will bet a brick of .22LR that all of them had failing health or pre-conditions of less than optimal function. Keep in mind that less than ten percent of all assigned COVID deaths occur below the age of sixty. And this data is coming from the voodoo clown circus known as the World Health Organzation.


And keep this is in mind:

Its important to note that seasonal flu, which causes outbreaks every year, should not be confused with pandemic flu, or a global outbreak of a new flu virus that is very different from the strains that typically circulate. This happened in 2009 with the swine flu pandemic, which is estimated to have killed between 151,000 and 575,000 people worldwide, according to the CDC. There is no flu pandemic happening currently.

The second question is easy to answer, cui bono? Who benefits from this, of course.

The government.

You can see economically illiterate overreach everywhere. From your local communist mayors shutting down businesses, like Detroit South here in Tucson, where the petri dish of collectivism and the progressive cult has turned the city and its burgs into Plissken Acres complete with failed roads, high crime and the highest property taxes in the state. At the Federal level, the national CP-USA has consummated its sloppy wet dream of tempting the Mango Emperor to the dark side with ill-advised and economically unsustainable bailouts.

The term we used to describe this in the military was slamming your dick in the cash register.

So you can get gas and go to the grocery store and other retailers but you cant sit in a room and eat food because

A primary transmission vector may be shit.

Thus since we know that ONLY restaurants have public restrooms since no other retail outlet or vendor has restrooms, only they should be closed.

And if there is any retail venture in the USSA that lives on the razors edge for survival, it is food venues that serve eat-in customers but why not order them all closed because fuck you, thats why.

The government, as usual, has turned a crisis into worse proportions than originally conceived. Do I assign this to conspiracy? Of course not, not where incompetence is always the right answer. The only conspiracy that occurs is covering up for who or what was responsible for the latest miles-long train of traveling dumpster fires rocketing down the track.

The collectivists have collectively gone mad [h/t to Phillip].


I am not a medical doctor nor an epidemiologist but I do wonder at the quarantine and self-isolation effects on herd immunity, only time will tell."
Supertruckertom 7k posts, incept 2010-11-07
2020-03-29 10:19:15

I always learn new words when I read BB pieces.

Preparing to go Hunting.
Bkmiller 1k posts, incept 2008-08-30
2020-03-29 10:19:28

Yeah, if you cut some habaneros with gloves on you'll learn REAL FAST to keep your gloved hands away from your face... and off your dick too.

Just to inject some levity, heard a story about a guy eating habaneros with bare hands at a bar, then went to take a leak. His friends, being concerned about his extended absence, checked the men's room. They found him furiously WASHING HIS DICK IN THE SINK! smiley
Dasman 108 posts, incept 2010-06-27
2020-03-29 10:19:58

This interview is with a M.D. in NYC, who is treating seriously ill patients with HydroxyChloroquine, Zinc and Zmax Z-Pac.

Of the patients he has treated... 500 or more, none have died, and none have needed to be intubated.

He says over and over... "Stay out of the hospital... if you go to the hospital, you are likely to be intubated, and even with the cocktail you only have a 40 to 50% survival prospect, because the damage from ARDS is so devastating. If you get ARDS and are intubated, even if you do survive, the pulmonary damage is permanent.
Krzelune 17k posts, incept 2007-10-08
2020-03-29 10:20:04

You need to stop looking at pussy.

Pinxrn 3 posts, incept 2016-07-23
2020-03-29 10:20:24

I believe the restaurant workers are also contributing to this. They wear gloves to make the food and touch other things without changing them (cash, refrigerator handles, cash register and counter tops)and then hand you the take out container. South Korea, Singapore and Japan also sprayed their streets (aerosolized from sewer vents). It looks much like the Hepatitis B out breaks in San Diego. They tamped it down by bleaching the streets. These countries also had their citizens wear masks everywhere.
Asimov 144k posts, incept 2007-08-26
2020-03-29 10:20:38

On the other hand I'm pretty convinced most of this transmission ISN'T vapor phase unless someone is actively sick or you have very close personal contact (e.g. sleeping in the same bed.) Big risk is fecal/oral and that's a monster because it's silent, it's surface based and it's a real bitch to get under control environmentally.

Yea. That's it. I thought so for a while, but I'm becoming more and more convinced that's the case.

In addition, they found intact virus on surfaces on the diamond princess SEVENTEEN DAYS later. Of course there's no way to know if it was enough to infect, but it was there and "alive" so it's possible.

It's going to be damn near impossible to get rid of in the environment.

It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Msheff 118 posts, incept 2018-05-03
2020-03-29 10:20:48

Bloomberg article about HOLLAND seems to support this hypothesis.
Chirorn 95 posts, incept 2013-02-13
2020-03-29 10:34:55

Employees of health facilities and hospitals testing positive. I wonder how many facilities are testing employees - most reports are that employees are being asked to self-monitor their temperatures before arriving at work. Self-quarantining of those with possible exposure was causing staffing shortages, so those policies were reversed early on...
Workerbee 5k posts, incept 2009-03-18
2020-03-29 12:12:49

At our facility we take our temperature and patients temperature, along with vendors/couriers and transport companies and then log it.

'Keep pushing fuckers, you'll find the trip wire eventually'
~ Quik49

'This is the part where you find out who you are'
Pika-steph 57k posts, incept 2007-09-11
2020-03-29 12:15:16

@Tickerguy - I had this at the end of July/early August. That post above from @Smooth provided me with clinical proof.

This thing has been around WAAAY longer than anyone is even thinking about.

"Obama is the dark-center of the anal fissure of a chancre infested, hemorrhoid laden asshole preparing to pucker and spew endless jets of diarrhea."--Chthonic
Tickerguy 195k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2020-03-29 12:14:57

... which is completely worthless since a huge percentage of infected never run a fever but can shed virus out their ass.

You cannot accurately identify infected. READ THE PAPER I LINKED. A huge percentage of the workers were infected BEFORE THE FIRST PATIENT SHOWED UP and many of them NEVER ran a fever.

You have to interrupt transmission in the health care system and the ONLY way to do that is to stop focusing on whether someone is clinically sick; YOU HAVE TO TREAT EVERY PERSON AND SURFACE AS A SOURCE OF INFECTION ALL THE TIME in that environment, and act accordingly.

Thus the protocol I pointed out.

Otherwise the health system HAS BEEN and WILL CONTINUE TO be a concentration and distribution mechanism -- and very a effective one.

The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.
Tickerguy 195k posts, incept 2007-06-26
2020-03-29 12:15:36

@Pika-Steph -- Yep.

Wait until you can get an antibody test... and then... oops!

The difference between "kill" and "murder" is that murder, as a subset of kill, is undeserved by the deceased.
Pika-steph 57k posts, incept 2007-09-11
2020-03-29 12:38:18

@Tickerguy - The tell is the D-Dimer. That is not a commonly positive test - ESPECIALLY in those without cardiac issues. Secondarily is CRP in someone who normally (and regularly checked) has CRP under .001. The problem with the latter testing is that many who have auto-immune often have elevated CRP, in addition to those with high blood sugar/inadequately controlled diabetes. Third is troponin. This is also not a commonly positive test in those without cardiac issues.

I had ALL THREE when I presented in ER along with massively elevated heart rate.

"Obama is the dark-center of the anal fissure of a chancre infested, hemorrhoid laden asshole preparing to pucker and spew endless jets of diarrhea."--Chthonic
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