So the "stay at home" order went into effect in NYC as far as I recall at 8 pm on March 22 so essentially at the turn to March 23. Mean incubation time for the virus is about 5 days based on newest data. On March 28 (yesterday to today) the daily cases went down from way above 3000 for three days in a row to just about 2500. This is roughly the same level as March 21 and if this holds then that would support the idea that what they are doing in NY is working as intended, and likely within one propagation cycle for the virus.
I am using data from NYC directly:
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covi....I would love to know what evidence there is that NYC policies are not working. I would understand the claim that one day of data is not evidence either way, but not anything more emphatic.