2020-03-26 IQ - Up Or Down?
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2020-03-26 11:31 by Karl Denninger
in Podcasts , 107 references Ignore this thread
2020-03-26 IQ - Up Or Down?
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Jpe6150
Posts: 19
Incept: 2013-07-02

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Brother KarL. A thought, appreciate your take on it. Here in northern AL we have had a very wet spring. Yesterday the first of the large flocks of mosquitoes started hitting me.
Vector wise my first thought was, just great, one more vector for corona. Afterall they developed chloroquine for malaria suppression.
What say you?
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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I don't know what the serum levels of CV19 (active virus) are nor whether it's compatible with mosquito anticoagulant spit.

I sort of doubt this winds up being an effective vector.... but could be wrong.

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Winding it down.
Burke13
Posts: 114
Incept: 2010-02-22

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I'm seriously struggling with my pride and wanting to send this $1200 check back to sender with a big "F-- You" written on it along with my John Hancock. I worked my ass off since I was 12 years old, paid every dime of taxes and never took anything handout from the government, not sure I want to start now.
Pandemicsamurai
Posts: 30
Incept: 2020-03-17

Atlanta
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This was a bank and state pension fund bailout disguised as a pandemic ... I'm 100% convinced of this now. Change my mind ...
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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This ain't gonna bail out pension funds.

It's filling the bilge with nitroglycerine.

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Winding it down.
Hot-dog-guy
Posts: 419
Incept: 2019-04-03

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One spot of good news from Phoenix. Gave a buddy a ride this morning, 5:30AM and traffic is backed up on I-10. Roads are busy. Seems a LARGE slice of Arizonans just said screw this, we're working. And yes, we can buy toilet paper.
Mannfm11
Posts: 5834
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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Pelosi is trying to start a depression. They want a $15 minimum wage. Unemployment pays $15 an hour. People won't go back to work. The Democratic Party wants us to be third world status. Trump is the only one making any sense. We are being offered a choice by the Democrat Party to starve or get the virus. The Green New Deal is a plan to starve the country and the world. Pelosi is a criminal.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Jal
Posts: 926
Incept: 2009-03-25


Online
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I don't know.Lies are everywhere.
The is something special about the news that is gathered by the bloggers.
The sky is falling.
The **** is hitting the fan.
MMT printing is bad/good.
The stock market does not respond, it want to go up and see if the sky is falling.
There is something special by the news that makes the stock market move.
Bagbalm
Posts: 5968
Incept: 2009-03-19

Just North of Detroit
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Burke 13 - Figure it is just a fractional reimbursement for the devaluation this and other printing has done to your earned money.
Superdude
Posts: 303
Incept: 2009-06-16

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This looks like smoke and mirrors...
18,000 bailout per citzen.

We got this "carrot" for the gen pop of 1200 bucks... (TAX CREDIT)
This tax credit may need to be paid pack in 2021. Not sure yet.

While on the under side 16,800 goes to hospital,small buiz, banks, and corps...
I dont believe any of it needs to be paid back...

Geezus is this 2k8 bailout 2.0?
Click
Posts: 1004
Incept: 2017-06-26

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Drudge Redline Story: "American Deaths will Top 80,000 in Next Four Months"

"And another one gone, and another one gone! Another one bites the dust"!

It'll be interesting to see what Beautiful Mother Nature decides to do, and how many really bite the dust......

..... And don't kid yourself, She's in charge now.... Not Trump, not the CDC, not the Man in the Moon...
Ktrosper
Posts: 4074
Incept: 2010-04-06

ft collins co
Online
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Whoa, important news you gave us on the antibody tests.
Yep, we suspected China NEW the profile of this bug, the antibody test they have up and running in production doesn't surprise me.
This ****er got outta their lab.

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Yep @Ktrosper.

Gotta have the sequence in order to be able to make an antibody test. Then you have to have someone with antibodies to prove you have it right, THEN you have to run the biologics to get the correct reagent mix and detector strip components (dwell time, etc.)

These tests are basically chromatography done on a strip of paper with controlled diffusion instead of gas transport. Cool technology and we use it for all sorts of things nowdays; it's quite mature in terms of the base for it. However, to have the specific requirements for a specific set of antibodies you're looking for YOU HAVE TO HAVE THE SEQUENCING DATA TO START WITH AND CONTROLS TO CALIBRATE ALL OF IT.

And doing that takes TIME.

When did you say this virus first emerged again?

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Winding it down.
Whossane
Posts: 96
Incept: 2018-01-25

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How accurate is the nasal swab to test for CoViD 19? Probably not very accurate at all.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/article....

The study found that the NPS was able to detect 66% (19/29) of human coronavirus HCoV-229E (not CoViD 19). That particular virus attacks upper respiratory system rather than the lower so one could expect that NPS would be much less accurate for CoViD 19. Also, the study was done one patients with acute symptoms.

So, how many with no, mild or even moderate symptoms are going undetected?


Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Yep @Whossane -- the actual viral test has rather ****ty selectivity AND sensitivity. That is, plenty of falses in both directions.

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Winding it down.
Hot-dog-guy
Posts: 419
Incept: 2019-04-03

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@Burke13 I'm waiting to hear about the "sign up process" for these benevolent free gifts of our tax dollars. Somehow I don't expect to see this love note magically appear in the snailbox. We know what info they have on our tax returns. What else might they want this time? Maybe let's get your census requirements taken care of with this? It will save you time, that's good for you. Hey and just a quick medical checkup, retinal scan, fingerprinting and you are all set to go. You get your check on the spot. No? Very well please step through the door on your left.

(sound of wood chipper starting up)


Click
Posts: 1004
Incept: 2017-06-26

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CNBC Breaking News RedLine"The coronavirus may be deadlier than the 1918 flu: Heres how it stacks up to other pandemics".

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavi....

Click thinks that if the pandemic doesn't get you, then the paranoia will...

Click also thinks the truth doesn't matter to the MSM right now.. As Herbert Hoover once said, they'll burn down the barn just to get the rat... The big, fat rat the MSM is after is an Orange Rat called Trump...

Trump now wants to reopen America, but the barn burners have lit the fire and they'll just keep throwing more and more gasoline in an ALL-OUT EFFORT TO BURN TRUMP!
Workerbee
Posts: 2006
Incept: 2009-03-18

* Winter is Coming *
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Today's [and yesterday's] podcast is ****ing gold.
Thank you!!!

You've mentioned something about generation, that we cannot be in the 1st generation of this thing....I am completely assuming that what you are saying is that basically in terms of herd immunity, or maybe exposure, COVID has already gone around once and we're at least at 2nd go around [generation]?
Do I kinda have that right?
Explain to me like I'm a hillbilly from WVa please. smiley

The numbers here in The Space Coast and Orlando absolutely do not make any sense.
By now our numbers should be WAY higher.
The only thing that makes sense is that many already have been exposed.

We have *ONE* solitary patient that was tested Tuesday. The cobormidities on this particular patient would make you LOFL, because this fellow is still walking, breathing, eating and DRIVING. I have had this patient coughing continually for 3 weeks, with no improvement or decline. Just the same unrelenting cough. They're stupid for testing him. But if he has it, I will loudly laugh my ****ing ass off. Cause this mother****er is FINE, and I have already been exposed several times and not symptomatic.
Thanks again for sharing your knowledge with us!

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Prepare for Our Valley Forge
*~* Appeal to Heaven *~*
...that those "who having no appeal on earth to right them, they are left to the only remedy in such cases, an appeal to heaven." ~John Locke
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Workerbee -- "Generation" as in exponential series generation.

If R0 is 3 and the generation time (time from exposure to exposing someone else) is 5 days then in 50 days you're 10 generations into the virus.

A basic exponential model tells you how quickly the virus will spread. Assuming you get R0 right and the exposure time right (both of which start as decent guesses, but get better with time -- generation time gets well-established quite quickly, for example, as you can see small "step functions" in each turn and they're quite obvious when looking at a graph there you are.

There are only two ways to stop that model:

1. Lock down everyone until all existing infections run their course, and prevent any transmission during that time. You must drive the current infection rate to an effective ZERO or as soon as you drop the restrictions it comes back at the former R0 rate and the expansion resumes since the existing infections are still there and can still infect. In addition you must prevent any external infections (e.g. from people coming into the country) from occurring or, once again, the series resumes.

2. As the number of infected and recovered people rises R0 falls. The problem is that due to how exponential series work you get almost NO repression of transmission until you're very close to the peak. It is NOT linear because the infection/recovery rate as a percentage of the population isn't linear. BUT -- once you reach a percentage of the population that is in the single digits BEFORE the decimal with an R0 this high you are nearly done! Why? Well consider if you have 3% of the population that has or had it, and the suppression rate for immunity is 66% (which it is, roughly, for this bug; that's 1 - (1/R0)) then your population prevalence rate assuming you let it "run" follows the same model! That is, 9, 27, you're done. Except that will only hold through 9 and now meaningful repression is taking place when you get past that point.

If you hold R0 to 1.2 with lockdowns you **** yourself. Why? Because the repression rate for 1.2 is ~17%. You get there. Community spread stops but sporadic cases continue. Now you drop it -- guess what; you go right back into the same previous series AND YOU STILL GET HOSED!

But how long does it take to get there? Well.... that's a problem because it's not 3, 9, 27, etc -- it's 1.2, 1.44, 1.73, 2.07, etc. How long did you say you wanted to take it up the ass trying to get to that 17% level?

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Winding it down.

Jules
Posts: 114
Incept: 2009-04-18

Pickled in the brine of futility
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Neighbor killed herself this morning.

There are no words for the anger, the outrage, the FURY that I feel right now. "They" did this to her with their incessant fearmongering.

Never should have happened.

Doubt she will be the only one.

smiley

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███████ everything ████ ████ ██ is █ ██████ ██ fine ██████ █████ ███. █
Pominoz
Posts: 118
Incept: 2008-02-05

australia
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I didn`t know this but the UK Government changed their stance on COVID19 on the 19th March. It is no longer considered a HCID. (High consequence infectious disease). The main reason not surprisingly was the low overall mortality rate.
Workerbee
Posts: 2006
Incept: 2009-03-18

* Winter is Coming *
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I guess then I have assumed our "lockdowns" are irrelevant to our low numbers. I assumed this because:
1. Cat already outta bag....some exposure has already occurred [especially in Central Florida given travel, etc)
2. "Lockdowns" here in my area really are not lockdowns. No bars/restaurants are open, but I can go to Publix or Dillards, hit Wawa and Walgreen's, then go to work along with apparently the rest of Brevard.

So that being said, I am trying to explain to myself how are our numbers remain low, and have come up with four possible reasons:

1. some tapping down of exposure due to bars/restaurants, school closures
2. has some exposure already taken place, exposure at some level already occurred
3 Numbers are currently low, but we are we about to see numbers skyrocket because exposure is just starting
4. We haven't tested enough people, that's why numbers are low.

Appreciate your time on this, thank you.

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Prepare for Our Valley Forge
*~* Appeal to Heaven *~*
...that those "who having no appeal on earth to right them, they are left to the only remedy in such cases, an appeal to heaven." ~John Locke
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Workerbee -- Testing for active infection is nearly worthless in terms of determining where you are. You need to know how many people HAVE HAD IT, not how many people NOW have it.

All testing for active infection does is inform a course of treatment IF THERE IS ONE THAT WORKS for the infection in question. In other words the benefit of testing for active infection is personal; the benefit of antibody surveillance is to public health.

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Winding it down.

Workerbee
Posts: 2006
Incept: 2009-03-18

* Winter is Coming *
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Right, I completely get that, and understand that. But I am still flummoxed by low positive active infections in this general area.

Did this low rate of active COVID warrant closing bars, restaurants, and the layoffs of coworker's parent, spouse, and kid including mine.
**** no.

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Prepare for Our Valley Forge
*~* Appeal to Heaven *~*
...that those "who having no appeal on earth to right them, they are left to the only remedy in such cases, an appeal to heaven." ~John Locke
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