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Movedtonz
Posts: 1250
Incept: 2008-03-09

Hawkes Bay
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One item about Italy and statistics. The location for the major breakout is the Lombardy region. For the first half of March, the death rate for the city of Bergamo in that region tripled as compared to first half of March last year. Interestingly only about 30% of the increase in deaths were attributed to CV. That is with the CV related deaths being essentially zero at the start of March. Comparing a few weeks of deaths in a small region to the annual deaths of a large region where the majority are not infected may not be a fully accurate comparison.

Yes, I think that the risk for CV has been dramatically overstated and seriously sensationalized in the media. I also want to see objective comparisons that show this over-sensationalization. The Swiss Dr link is great stuff, but also occasionally compares apples and oranges as well. The comorbidity data and the "dies with" as compared to "dies of" is extremely germane.

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Americans need to stop claiming stupidity to get out of responsibility. -Tsk
Jc3
Posts: 25
Incept: 2020-03-02

South Texas 93 miles from Houston
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Dr. Z even put "don't eat feces" in his "My Corona" music video weeks(a month?) ago.

Taiwan and a few of the other countries "handling this correctly" ALL have the mask-wearing REQUIREMENT and their spread/infection/death rates are ALL lower than "normal" or the inflated bullshirt we're being lied to with.

Friends not in "Critical Infrastructure Sector Essential Worker" employment are hit very hard by this lockdown fiasco. Adding that to the oil war(pricing) hitting Texas is a double kick into the groin for many here even those in NOT over-leveraged businesses.
Kickthecan
Posts: 555
Incept: 2008-11-06

Seattle
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Regarding PPE

Some facilities are running low on surgical masks, the hospital I work at being one. Too much reliance on JIT and everyone assuming a state or federal stockpile would be there. We have staff *making masks at home* from cotton cloth and elastic bands.

N95s are in short supply, even after donations and confiscations from industry. My facility relies heavily on CAPR and PAPR devices. Guess what? There weren't enough face shields, so instead of treating them as disposable there is a procedure for cleaning and sterilization.

Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Jollyrogers - Comorbidities, primarily.

Age is a correlating factor with cormorbidities. What's the fatality rate of those there with no comorbidities? Under 1% (about 0.5-0.6% at present.) So if no comorbidities we're talking a risk of death of something like 0.05%.

Still scared if you're not diabetic, hypertensive and don't have cardiac disease? (Those are the three specifically identified.)

Second only 12% of Italian deaths are caused by coronavirus.

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Winding it down.
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Kickthecan - Yep. That's what people get for connecting supply chains like this and thinking nothing will ever go wrong.

Where were the last two serious Coronavirus attacks in origination? Well ****, it's a good idea to put manufacturing there right? It's not like the last two -- which didn't **** the US -- will never result in one that does, right?

Whoever runs those supply management and the CEOs at the top need to be strung up like this and left to rot:

 

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Winding it down.
Pegasus
Posts: 1
Incept: 2008-03-22

Morgan Hill, CA
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https://www.statista.com/statistics/8047....

Even if the death rate is 10 times at 60K+ death over the year, the coronary heart disease is still the leading cause of death in Italy, at least based on the 2014 statistics.
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Yep.

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Winding it down.
Mangymutt
Posts: 1416
Incept: 2015-05-03

Vancouver WA
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Dead Squirrel hanging by it's nuts.

That is HILARIOUS!!!!
Cass
Posts: 6
Incept: 2020-02-05

Northern Nevada
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To get an accurate excess death amount you have to deduct the deaths due the the economic shut down from the raw excess number.
Movedtonz
Posts: 1250
Incept: 2008-03-09

Hawkes Bay
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This is an interesting article regarding the death rate in Italy, or at least in the town of Bergamo in Italy in the center of the the hardest hit Lombardy region:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-healt....

It is a bit old news now, as the death rate for the city has likely doubled again if the overall Italy death rate increase is any indication.

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Americans need to stop claiming stupidity to get out of responsibility. -Tsk
Tf0884
Posts: 10
Incept: 2010-06-26

England
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Karl. Much has been mentioned on the impact the virus has had in the markets (or is alleged to have had). How much of what we are seeing is due to the Fed tightening rates over the last few years and bringing on a recession vs the virus? The yield curve has been inverted for several months. Way before the viurs was even known about. I've no idea if the yield curve is still a good signal given all the manipulation in those markets, but it is a traditional marker of a recession several months following the signal.

Credit is tightening, equities are getting smashed. Given the Fed's actions and the timing of these recent moves, to what extent do you think this virus is a cause vs a catalyst?

By the way. I'm not suggesting for one second that loose money is the answer to anything. Quite the opposite.

Little_eddie
Posts: 1492
Incept: 2009-04-30

Delaware
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Quote:
That is what THEY WANT. They want it so bad Trump doesn't get re-elected.


But they think there may be something left after the next election? I'm wondering!

Air travel down 90%, there's not going to be an airport to land their private jets on.
The bailout is a joke, it's not going to stop all the small business and personal bankruptcies after the lockdown.

Oil at the current price is going to destroy the oil producers and after we run though this glut I don't think we'll be able to rebuild it.

They (most people) think it's always going to be like it was(is), just like in August of 1929, but I think this is going to make that look like good times.

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Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. - George Carlin


Mannfm11
Posts: 5834
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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I am beginning to believe this is Russia gate 3. They should shoot 2 of the press members each day until they quit drumming to idea to keep the economy closed down. These are the same people, who promote FREE. FREE will go to not existing, if we do 3 months of this. THIS IS A COMMUNIST PLOT. Pelosi attempted to put in her DESTROY THE USA PROGRAM, and there is no telling what kind of theft games she and the rest of these shysters put in, as it is.

THESE PEOPLE DON'T GIVE ONE IOTA OF A **** ABOUT ANY OF US. They act as if it is money that makes the economy go. MONEY IS THE EVIDENCE OF PRODUCTION OF GOODS AND SERVICES, and when the goods disappear, the value of the money will follow. TRUMP DROPS HINTS, BUT HE HASN'T MADE THE ABSOLUTE STATEMENT, THAT, IF WE DON'T GET BACK TO PRODUCING GOODS AND SERVICES. INSTEAD OF POURING OUR OUTPUT INTO A BLACK HOLE, WHICH IS WHAT MEDICINE AND THEIR OTHER FAVORITE, EDUCATION, LARGELY IS.

Maybe we lose 100,000 people, but most of them would go, if they got the flu. I suspect that 90% of them wouldn't be alive in 5 years, if they caught nothing.

I just watched a debate involving a Republican and a snake headed former Obama official. How much did Obama's policies cost the USA? Probably 20 trillion. Trump hits it on the head when he says we never shut down for the flu and some of the flu's are about as bad as this is, maybe worse, when you consider it gets a sizable number of children and people in the prime of life. I don't know if many people out there realize the people who work for a living produce all taxes. A couple of weeks might be the same for many of us as the Christmas season, where not much gets done, but not for the major affected businesses, travel, restaurants and others. They can't even sell the gasoline they are making right now, because so many people have no where to go.

How may people are stuck on stupid and how many are just flat out lying for philosophical purposes or political purposes. These people are either stupid or Bolsheviks.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Twainfan2
Posts: 128
Incept: 2018-12-04

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The numbers I'm seeing here in MN are mindbogglingly stupid. They claim they've tested 11,300 people... 287 positive. That's 2.5%. So what do the other 97.5% have that is causing them to go see a doctor to get a test? Or is it that the tests are showing absurd amounts of false negatives?

At least 30% (the head of DEED even admits 28% of employees will be out of work for at least the 2 weeks of the SIP) of the state's workforce now gets a 2 week vacation and if you're a waiter/waitress/bartender it's a 6 week vacation (just don't think about where you're going to find a job when the vacation is over).

I love this part too... the State estimates that 78% of all state jobs won't be included in the SIP. So all those fat govt employees get to keep their jobs and income while the private sector gets hosed.

Oh meteors... where are you?
Orangemanbadeh
Posts: 842
Incept: 2019-04-22

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Of for **** sake, more of the they want Trump bull****...

I guess every First World nation (and even some thugs that seem to like him like Russia, Philippines and India) is in on the conspiracy.

I swear some of you people are just as bad as Leftists I see writing they are hiding body counts, like every nation around the world can somehow be engaged in some sort of a global conspiracy to hide a higher fatality rate from us...they all got together with the WHO to keep us from finding out that it is really 10% fatal or some ****...
Mannfm11
Posts: 5834
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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Twainfan2, they have a double decker **** house and we are on the bottom. You know, unless he is informed by those in charge, a President has no way of knowing something is screwed up. We are witnessing one more major bureaucratic failure. Seems they used up the masks 10 years ago and never replenished. The FDA and CDC ****ed up the test. We would still be waiting, if they had kept control. Take the price of anything they do and triple the market price and you get something half as effective. Governments are good at sewer plants, city dumps and using law enforcement to take our money. If you took them out of medicine, we would have something that worked, because it had to, much better at half or less the price. Had they been in charge, our wheels would be square.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Veeger
Posts: 95
Incept: 2013-02-13

Washington state
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My neighbor is a recently retired anesthesiologist. He says you can't keep someone on a ventilator for more than 5 or 6 days regardless of their underlying condition that put them there in the first place. It has its own risks involved in using it. Hence the low to no survival rate here. If the problem the ventilator is there to solve is not resolved within that time frame, welp, that's all she wrote anyway! Funny, we hear about the risks (very real) of hydroxy chloroquine but no one mentions the long term effects of using ventilators...
Cerich
Posts: 1047
Incept: 2008-12-17

ga
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Honest to **** folks, you are all patient as hell.

If folks can't understand that if on any given year you transported every confirmed flu case to the hospital, made every staff contact wear full PPE, keep the seniors from the old age homes that normally die in the old age home if flu or whatever finishes their old bodies off in the hospital to die that the hospital will be short of PPE and get overwhelmed, then they are a ****ing moron.

Just saying
Lenguado
Posts: 2995
Incept: 2010-01-12
A True American Patriot!
Orlando, FL
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Quote:
So what do the other 97.5% have that is causing them to go see a doctor to get a test?

My Dark Blue VW GTI, that I got washed last Saturday (not this immediate past), was pretty much YELLOW by Wednesday due to the outrageous Oak and Pine pollen this season.

I am 99.999% sure that the occasional tickles and minor hacks are due to all the pollen.

- - - - -

And FWIW, it appears that the local gendarme are starting to get concerned about the lack of traffic on the roads here - and thus their revenue flow. I had to run into work for a few hours to get some files posted that I really needed if this thing goes on well into April - and they are about to Shut Down Orange County (FL) - where the office is. Though I do have a "Get Out Of Jail Free" letter if I wind up needing to go into work for something that I can't do from home.

Anyway, on the way in, there was a brand new Speed Trap set up in a brand new location, with a couple cops running radar around a blind corner. They had a couple folks pulled over, and looking for more.
smiley

Also, only a single instance that we are aware of personally, but a couple of the older Lenguadoette's fellow IEs who live over by Uncle Walt's were "detained" last night for going out to their apartment's community mailbox to get their mail. They were walking to their apartment after doing their laundry - shortly after 11 PM. They weren't taken in or cited, but were apparently given a stern warning. Said there were 3 cruisers patrolling the neighborhood. FWIW

Be safe and careful out there.

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"War is when your government tells you who the enemy is. A revolution is when you figure it out yourself." --Unknown

"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable." - President John F. Kennedy
Weezie
Posts: 7126
Incept: 2008-05-19
A True American Patriot!
Caution: Congress at Work
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@Mannfm11 - I am more and more convinced it is a CCP plan, with our media and "bought" politicians spurring it on.

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jihad pressure cooker tea party guns Constitution Bill of Rights play doh squiggly line prepper home garden cluster****
Arcticace1
Posts: 1
Incept: 2020-03-25

99654
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Hey Tickerguy,

This doctor in New York has said basically what you said a week ago. I have tweeted Trump/Mnuchin/AK Governor your article links in the hopes some idiot in the administration might read them.

Probably to much to ask for.

Regards,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7h9UXkDa....
Orangemanbadeh
Posts: 842
Incept: 2019-04-22

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Sweden is taking a different tactic.

https://reason.com/2020/03/25/despite-co....
Ugrev
Posts: 445
Incept: 2010-03-08

Freer state of NC
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Here's some fun data. It's the ILI map or the influenza like illness indicator. It almost seems as though we should definitely do something about Puerto Rico. Seems like PR gets sick, gives it to Louisiana and it explodes from there. Oh, notice how this ILI spikes a lot earlier than the previous year?

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/main.h....

I had an ILI in november. Came back negative for flu. Hmmmm....
Whossane
Posts: 96
Incept: 2018-01-25

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Is a nasal swab even an effective way to collect a sample of this virus? CVD19 doesn't seem to be an upper respiratory infection and a runny nose is not a symptom.
Tripseven
Posts: 160
Incept: 2012-04-26

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@Orangemanbadeh..."Of for **** sake, more of the they want Trump bull****..."

By gosh you just might be on to something...
What with the MSM clearing his path every step of the way...
And CONgress covering up for every one of his little errors...
And the three letter agencies providing cover for his massive frauds...

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Please God, take it all away...we don't deserve what we have!

"I find medicine is the best of all trades, because whether you do any good or not, you still get your money." -Moliere "A Physician in Spite of Himself" 1664
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