ITALY IS A DISASTER!
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2020-03-25 15:43 by Karl Denninger
in Flash , 409 references Ignore this thread
ITALY IS A DISASTER!
[Comments enabled]

There have been 6,820 deaths allegedly from (really "with") Coronavirus in Italy.

Italy isn't lying, right -- we can trust those numbers (unlike Iran.)

This is the poster child for America, and specifically NY and CA.  It is informing our response.  It is a horrible, frightening scenario and one we must avoid, therefore we are locking down cities, claiming "major disaster" status and all sorts of other things.

Ok.

Fact: 633,000 people died in Italy in 2018.

So Coronavirus, in the worst-hit Western nation in the world, has managed to kill about 1% as many people as die on an ordinary basis in Italy -- and that assumes that Coronavirus actually caused all those deaths (hint: it didn't.)

Let's further assume before this is over that number doubles.

So Coronavirus will have killed two percent of all the people who die from all causes in Italy over a year's time.

Two percent!

Given this fact should we:

1. Continue to sacrifice our economy for an escalation in death rate of 2% over what it is otherwise.

or

2. Immediately re-open our economy and sack any politician that refuses.

You choose America, because that really is what we're talking about.  Remember, Italy supposedly blew it, they're the worst case, they overloaded their medical system, people died for lack of a vent, etc.

Yet these are the numbers.

Now choose.

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Little_eddie
Posts: 1492
Incept: 2009-04-30

Delaware
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And that is ASSUMING that the virus deaths are over and above the normal number of people that die each year.

Which is something we don't know yet.

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Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. - George Carlin


Jal
Posts: 926
Incept: 2009-03-25

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"Now choose."

WAIT, NOT YET.
ALL OF THE TRILLION DOLLAR AID PACKAGES STILL NEED FIXING.

1. GOP Senators Demand Fix For "Massive Error" In Coronavirus Bill Which Would Create "Perverse Incentive"

2. Senate aid package quietly carves out billions intended for Boeing,

Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
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A True American Patriot!
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Actually @Little_eddie..... red line.
Inline

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Winding it down.

Quietrally
Posts: 47
Incept: 2009-06-10

USA
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I just interviewed for a position as a pilot flying aerial survey... the main concern I shared with the hiring manager was if they foresaw large layoffs coming over the next year due to the present political immolation being committed by idiot politicians on a daily basis. Apparently, the government contracts havent been affected as of yet, and they didnt see them being affected over the next year. I guess time will tell.

I am definitely in the Get back to work, category of folks. My county (a Colorado ski town) has already watched about 70 percent of its workforce go idle, and to think its coming back when this blows over is complete and utter crap.

The economic fallout from this is going to make 2008-9 look like childs play.

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D+(R/Tea Party ) = Same Outcome
Jack_crabb
Posts: 7042
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Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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Quote:
The economic fallout from this is going to make 2008-9 look like childs play


If the ****ing pols keep it up, this will be worse than the Great Depression.

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Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Twainfan2
Posts: 128
Incept: 2018-12-04

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MN data: 287 confirmed cases. 27 needed hospitalization. 7 needed icu. 1 dead. Yep thats definitely a good reason to shut down the entire state for 2 weeks. Thats roughly what the Flu does every week if not every couple of days.

Torches and pitchforks arent gonna be enough. The worst part is half or more of the morons in the state cheer the governor on and approve of it.

We need a lot of meteors and we need them right now.
Thelazer
Posts: 332
Incept: 2009-05-11

Davenport, Fl
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"If the ****ing pols keep it up, this will be worse than the Great Depression."

That is what THEY WANT. They want it so bad Trump doesn't get re-elected.
Twainfan2
Posts: 128
Incept: 2018-12-04

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@jack looks like that 2 trillion bailout will all be new debt with another 4 trillion in fed buying junk bonds. Trump just may hit 3 trillion in deficit this year. Go big or go home I guess.

This could easily surpass 1929 and by quite a bit at the rate they are going. And when it does, every moron that cheered this **** on that I see I will make sure they know just how much they are despised and exactly why I will give them no help at all.
Aquapura
Posts: 1038
Incept: 2012-04-19

South of Canada
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I'm in MN and the minute our spineless idiot governor got on and started saying he was issuing a stay-home order I got a client call and a major project is immediately on hold. Nice. **** you very much Walz.
Tphedlund
Posts: 11
Incept: 2017-01-27

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The jobless claims released tomorrow morning should be interesting. 2,000,000 - 3,000,000 last week alone?
Click
Posts: 1004
Incept: 2017-06-26

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"this will be worse than the Great Depression".

Look on the bright side: few, if any, probably nobody, will be able to employ 30 million illegals who are currently part of the socioeconomic Marxist system... Back home they go...Trade with China will dramatically decline to the point of wrecking China. No more "free trade". Good! Euroland will breakup and collectivism will suffer a catastrophic setback. That's what Click is praying for...

Meanwhile, what's a snowfake to do in a Great Depression? Well, the little fudge packers with Diversity College degrees will have to tough it out, toughen up or suffer some really severe consequences... The little Facebook ******s will have to eat meat and cut down some trees or go without dinner, a movie and a blowjob.

Ever watch the movie, "Sometimes a Great Notion" aka Never Give an Inch, starring Paul Newman? Yeah, the little pansy-assed snow flakes will have to relearn what it means to get your lazy ass out of bed at 4:30AM and cut ****ing wood... It'll be good for'em...
Uwe
Posts: 8441
Incept: 2009-01-03
A True American Patriot!
24091
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Quote:
Trump just may hit 3 trillion in deficit this year. Go big or go home I guess.


Well, uhm...


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"I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do." -- Robert Heinlein
Fasteddie81
Posts: 17
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The weather is nice in Chicago today, one of those early-spring days with mid-50s temps and plenty of sun.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavir....

The mayor is losing her **** over too many people getting out in the parks and not practicing "social distancing."

Chicago has many faults, but I think in general, the populace are a pretty bright bunch. They took the "lockdown" seriously for awhile. But the beginning of Spring is an awful powerful force here, and I think Mayor Lori is going to be out of luck if she thinks she's going to get the cops to start ticketing people for going outside together.
Lobo
Posts: 723
Incept: 2013-12-25

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I haven't been paying a lot of attention to it, but it seems like there are more stories showing up that describe how absolutely deadly the Wuhanic Plague is:
MadeUpNews wrote..
20 Year Old Triathlete Underwear Model Describes Almost Dying Of Krakatoa-19 Virus: "It was awrful. Every time I breathed out I would exhaust my lungs of fluid, but before I could take a breath in they were full again. The doctors and nurses were horrified."


Must now be necessary to try to convince the sheeple that the Corolla virus is double secret deadly 'cause people might be noticing that it isn't.

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Village Idiot
Pandemicsamurai
Posts: 30
Incept: 2020-03-17

Atlanta
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"I think Mayor Lori is going to be out of luck if she thinks she's going to get the cops to start ticketing people for going outside together."

Gotta make up that tax (and b.s. blue uniform vehicle) revenue somehow ...

inline
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
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There are more gang-bangers than cops by quite a margin.

This could turn into a fairly-serious ****show.

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Winding it down.
Jal
Posts: 926
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I can't think of a better way to reset our social/economic system.
Remember, it wasn't the blue collar workers who were leading the system. It was done by the lawyers, accountants, bankers and their puppets.
The same people who brought the system to the brink are using the coronavirus to hide what they are doing.
The end results of these changes are going to be more in line with their plans than with the plan of the + 60% of the overweight, and the plans of pay check to pay check people.

If you are leverage now be ready to be farther in debt.
Do you think that if you cannot pay the minimum on your credit card that the bankers will not charge you interest? (Yep Sure)
Jollyrogers
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I want to believe so very badly, but the number of 6,820 doesn't mean that the dying in Italy is anywhere near done and it doesn't count those spending weeks in the hospital not on vents, but on O2 trying to recover.

I want to believe. I'm not sure that I've seen enough data yet to do that.

I agree with your call for serology testing and a SK-like expansion of active disease testing.

I have friends who are ER docs/nurses and the PPE shortfall are very real.
Gauntlet33
Posts: 220
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@Click: "few, if any, probably nobody, will be able to employ 30 million illegals who are currently part of the socioeconomic Marxist system... Back home they go..."

Good point. I remember back in 2008 when a Mexican immigrant told me he was going back to live there. I knew our economy was bad when he said that.

Also, I heard someone was ticketed here in LA $400 for disobeying the stay home order.
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
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A True American Patriot!
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@Jollyrogers -- I said double the Italian death rate. It's still 2% of those who die of all causes naturally in Italy in a year.

Want me to really make you bawl your eyes out? I can make you want to ban cars. Easily. What -- 40,000 fatal crashes a year in the US alone? How many heads that have a piece of a table that fell off some other vehicle go through them, or the result of a guardrail impalement do I need to run on the Ticker for you before you sign on?

The fact is that Italy has been claimed to be the worst-case scenario. People dying, an overloaded medical system, the whole bit. Well, they got it. Ok.

So what?

Seriously -- it's 1% of their normal mortality rate. See that nice red line in the graph above? It's trending downward .vs. where it usually is this time of year!

Look at the PREVIOUS years. They got gang-banged with flu-related deaths. This isn't even on the radar by comparison!

That's right -- even with all the screaming and crying fewer Italians are dying than modeled and expected for this time of year! Even WITH Coronavirus.

What the ****?

As for the PPE issue read my other Ticker. PPE isn't the issue. Handwashing is. South Korea proved this. Their protocol was SURGICAL masks (do NOT prevent inhaling droplets, only you EXHALING THEM ON OTHERS) and a ****-ton of handwashing. No PPE and within the same room but not in personal contact (touch)? If not more than THIRTY MINUTES no need for quarantine or self-isolation with a suspected or tested positive case.

Number of infections this produced?

AN EFFECTIVE ZERO.

Guess why?

This virus is mostly spread through ****-eating, not vapor phase. AS I SAID I SUSPECTED ORIGINALLY FROM THE DATA AVAILABLE WHEN IT FIRST STARTED.

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Winding it down.
Thelazer
Posts: 332
Incept: 2009-05-11

Davenport, Fl
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"I have friends who are ER docs/nurses and the PPE shortfall are very real."

How much of that shortfall is due to them using all this PPE on EVERYONE Who comes running into the hospital Virus or Not.. because everyone got panicked and decided over reaction?

Wouldn't it be more prudent to immediately test as many doctors and nurse staff for Antibody's, thus knowing who is now more than likely immune and could perhaps forgo some of the PPE being thrown about?
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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PPE and protocol:

1. Wear a SURGICAL (not N95) mask. This doesn't prevent inhaling droplets -- it prevents you from touching your mouth. They have plenty of those, by the way.

2. WASH HANDS with water and soap (hibiclens?) before and after EACH patient interaction. NO EXCEPTIONS, PERIOD, FULL STOP.

3. After EACH patient departs exam table the table is cleaned with viricidal cleaner before the next one. Immediately following such cleaning the person doing it (whether env services or the doctor/nurse) washes hands AGAIN.

4. If in a room with someone and you have no PPE, and they are discovered positive (either at the time or later) but NOT coughing or otherwise producing large-volumes of aerosols you DO NOT need to isolate unless your exposure exceeds FIFTEEN MINUTES.

5. STOP the "all hands" meetings in the HX (e.g. status, etc); distance those. Why? One person ****s up hygiene coming in the room they spread it through all the surfaces and now you all have it.

6. Gowns/face shields/etc are only necessary for high-aerosol procedures (e.g. intubations, etc.)

This was SK protocol. Their rate of nosocomial transmission went to an effective ZERO.

Guess what this tells you? The transmission path is mostly fecal/oral.

The problem isn't PPE. It's being transmitted through ****.

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Winding it down.
Jesjohn94
Posts: 161
Incept: 2019-05-07

Atlanta
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https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanin....

Very long research article from Hong Kong doctors.
Jollyrogers
Posts: 8
Incept: 2012-07-30

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@Tickergy, I could not see your graph previously because your board hates me, but I can now.

You don't need to be patronizing about auto deaths - I know the stats and I know how they compare to things like firearms homicides.

Copy your points on SK and agree. Problem is, USG is telling people not to wear masks unless they are sick or have tested positive. I'd love to see widespread use of surgical masks.

I agree with everything you're written about ventilators.

What's your take on the high hospitalization rate in Italy, especially for folks <50?
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