2020-03-25 Models .v. Data (Podcast)
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2020-03-25 11:30 by Karl Denninger
in Podcasts , 97 references Ignore this thread
2020-03-25 Models .v. Data (Podcast)
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Referenced article, updated on a daily basis, with various people that have lots of letters after their names....

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Kennington
Posts: 27
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Pittsburgh, Pa
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Amazing Podcast, Amazing!!!

If that is in fact the case you expect a hefty rally from the markets above and beyond the point that they have already rallied.

The next question is, how much embedded damage to the economy from to this point...
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
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A True American Patriot!
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A lot.

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Winding it down.
Stonedog
Posts: 2225
Incept: 2008-05-29
A True American Patriot!
New Jersey
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Karl - during your podcast I believe you mentioned something about Cuomo cancelling order for ventilators some time back.... or did I mishear you?

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"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012

"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantitativ
Tickergroupie
Posts: 647
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Put Karl on the task force NOW.

Or get him a few minutes with Trump.
Tickerguy
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@Stonedog - No, you did not. Cuomo canceled an order a number of years back for exactly this sort of contingency. That's a fact.

@Tickergroupie - Fox may have to do for now... we'll see.

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Winding it down.
Blackswan
Posts: 6166
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Philly - FEMA region 3
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I fear the narrative on this Kung Flu is becoming too strong to reverse course quickly. Wuflu deniers will be lumped in with climate and "science deniers".

Jack_crabb
Posts: 7042
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Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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Quote:
Wuflu deniers will be lumped in with climate and "science deniers".


Well, I'm in good company then. **** leftists, and stupid sheeple of all persuasions.

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Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Stonedog
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Karl thank you...

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"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012

"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantitativ
Asimov
Posts: 114841
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East Tennessee
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Quote:
Fox may have to do for now.


Huh?!

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Platawn
Posts: 108
Incept: 2008-10-30

SF Bay Area
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The point KD makes ( 'attenuated live vaccine' ) starting at 29'10 point in video is, for my money, the most reasonable conjecture as to the origin and behavior of this virus. All the pieces fit.
Jules
Posts: 114
Incept: 2009-04-18

Pickled in the brine of futility
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"@Tickergroupie - Fox may have to do for now... we'll see."

Dammit I hate these teases! This is worse than the "Think polio" quip you left us hanging on the other night.

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███████ everything ████ ████ ██ is █ ██████ ██ fine ██████ █████ ███. █
Uwe
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Blackswan wrote..
Wuflu deniers will be lumped in with climate and "science deniers".

That's already happening. Not only that, we're evil because we're willing to lots of people to die in order to save "Wall Street".

I hate to say it, but the media's panic narrative is winning on this.






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"I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do." -- Robert Heinlein
Tickerguy
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Well they're really not going to like the permanent economic damage on this from all the scaremongering, and I'm going to help add to it by snapping my wallet permanently closed.

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Winding it down.

Naomi_cas
Posts: 977
Incept: 2007-08-17

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Personally, I never look at other people's models...it is just not fun for me. I find a lot more effective to just look at the data myself. I do have the ability to not give a f... about what anybody says, whoever they are (that helps I am sure). Yes I have been called an iconoclast. I like to work alone, I would hate to work in government.


Speaking of live vaccines:

"Can a century-old TB vaccine steel the immune system against the new coronavirus?"
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/....

"Vaccines generally raise immune responses specific to a targeted pathogen, .... But BCG may also increase the ability of the immune system to fight off pathogens other than the TB bacterium,...work in Guinea-Bissau concluded the vaccine prevents about 30% of infections with any known pathogen, including viruses, in the first year after its given."

About this novel mechanism:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/3....
"protection from reinfection has been shown to occur independently of T and B lymphocytes. ... This model of innate immunity can display adaptive characteristics after challenge with pathogens or their products. This de facto immunological memory has been termed trained immunity or innate immune memory. "a previously unrecognized property of human immune responses."
Trained immunity would involve epigenetic reprogramming as oppose to genetic (DNA code) changes.

Fascinating.

How long can you derive BCG benefits? ie how stable/persistent are those epigenetic changes? people born in Europe decades ago all got this vaccine, I did. People seem to think it lasts only months, but epigenetic changes can last thru generations, so why does it have to be short lived?

Needless to say all medical personnel would probably opt for this vaccine ASAP if they have not had it yet. I seem to remember there are "attenuated forms" of it for kids with lung issues (chronic bronchitis etc..).

New virus= new findings.



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with friends like this, capitalism needs no enemies
Uwe
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They're under the delusion that it will all bounce right back once we're past this "crisis", no matter how long we remain in crisis mode.


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"I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do." -- Robert Heinlein
Orangemanbadeh
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I found this one interesting...it predicted 800 yesterday and supposedly we broke 900 so if his model is right which is seems to be so far, his stock picks ought to do well...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hell-comi....
M1919a2
Posts: 201
Incept: 2015-07-18

Washington
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@Ticker Guy
It is and, when your conclusion is accepted (IMHO it will prove out), was an excellent TRIP WIRE putting the U.S. into the CRISIS of the Fourth Turning.
Tickerguy
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@Orangemanbadeh - Meh. He ignores the fact that ~70% of the people on the ship never got it. Impossible, unless they were immune given that it was being distributed via the galley.

You couldn't manage to come up with a better way to **** what would otherwise be highly-suppressive herd immunity than confine everyone to quarters and feed them all ****.

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Winding it down.
Orangemanbadeh
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Tickerguy: Im wondering...on those cruise ships do they have a microwave in each room? Like were guests instructed to re-heat whatever food they were served?

Because if thats the case, then even my thoughts are the third world restaurants serving retail are going to be questionable if people just nuke their **** laced food.
Tickerguy
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Generally no although I'm sure suites and such are yes.

There is VERY LITTLE room in the average cabin and there's no real reason for a nuke or refer. If you want food you can get it; most hours of daylight and well into the evening there's buffets and such and most ships offer 24x7 room service delivery. So if you want it, order it -- no problem, and on most ships there's no charge for any of it unless you want something alcoholic, carbonated or want to eat in one of their specialty restaurants.

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Winding it down.
Orangemanbadeh
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Hmm well that rules that out.

I guess it also rules out me ever taking a cruise. I had given it some thought, then a few months ago we had an outbreak of Norovirus that ran through the house and I could see why they are the bane of the floating petri dishes.

I think I'd rather save up the money and buy my own houseboat and deal with maintenance and whatever dock fees than deal with that **** again.
Magus
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Yeah, average cruise ship room is 135-200 sq ft, way smaller than our hotel rooms by a large order. Probably a minifridge and coffee maker

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

-~~Ludwig V
Tickerguy
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Normally neither. Again, no need.

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Winding it down.
Robodog
Posts: 372
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a red Isle in blue sea MD
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My takeaway for the comparison you made Karl between the faulty models of COVID-19 and global warning versus the remedies proffered by the authorities in both cases, compels me to attribute sinister ulterior motives to those in power and the know. And that eerily brings to mind V for Vendetta but that's probably just my cynical overactive imagination. It still leaves me scratching my head to figure a benevolent or benign reason why anyone would stick to their story when the evidence refutes their model(s)?

A buddy (database dude) of mine's current motto is read everything, believe nothing & look for patterns.

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Dreaming of a place, our weary race is ready to arise. Kansas
Using all the good people for your galley slaves...I don't want to sail with this ship of fools...You're gonna pay tomorrow. World Party
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