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Little_eddie
Posts: 1492
Incept: 2009-04-30

Delaware
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And remember that HALF THE PEOPLE ARE EVEN STUPIDER than that.

What I want to know is where are the Weekly or monthly, year over year number of deaths by state? is it higher then the average?

USA 2017 total deaths, all causes 2,813,503 or a rate of 863.8 per 100,000.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr6....

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Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. - George Carlin


Drifter
Posts: 535
Incept: 2016-02-11

Pacific Northwest
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@Au-- eating out. How many of those people have their food prepared by ****-spreaders?

That's why I got a Hep A vaccination-- best to assume that everybody working in a Chinese restaurant has it.
Radiosity
Posts: 382
Incept: 2009-03-05

Sunny UK
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Asimov: to be fair, both work ;p
Ktrosper
Posts: 4074
Incept: 2010-04-06

ft collins co
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Incredible. Great ticker and thank you.
My money is on this being proved out as we get more info.

I think we've hit a critical-mass/tipping-point of Americans who are incapable of critical thought, incapable of asking the right questions. A product of the K-12 government sponsored dumbing-down I suppose..

When assessing the risk early on, VERY few were asking - "What's the real denominator?"

KD was one. I appreciate that.

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D
Regrubun
Posts: 673
Incept: 2008-12-30
A True American Patriot!
Sioux City, IA
Online
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Do you think air quality is a factor in NYC and CA having worse outcomes right now? It's been suggested it is/was a factor in Wuhan and Italy.

Can you explain why 1% immunity is the threshold of proof?
Peterm99
Posts: 7186
Incept: 2009-03-21

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Drifer wrote..
. . . best to assume that everybody working in a Chinese EVERY restaurant has it.
FIFY

IMO, too much paranoia is generally better than not enough for things like this, where the downside of having too much really is almost negligible.

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwells imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed

Reason: clarification
Pjstaff
Posts: 327
Incept: 2008-01-21

Olympic Peninsula
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It's pretty clear that it's already far more prevalent than the official stats are showing. The thing that would make me actually feel better would be if we had some evidence that prior infection actually provides immunity, and that we're not going to get reinfected by a mutated strain next year.
Captainkidd
Posts: 1693
Incept: 2010-05-25

Houston, Texas
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I was voicing my disdain and displeasure at the deliberate wrecking of the country just this morning at my "Essential" place of employment, where I'm an "Essential Infrastructure Employee".

Asked what I'd do, I gave a synopsis of KD's EO.

I was scolded and told Kung Flu would "Take off like wildfire", and that "The Medical Experts know what needs to be done, so we just need to listen to them and do as we're told."

I was the ONLY person there, out of 7 or 8, that did not think that way.

We're doomed.
****ing Sheep.

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A lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than a thousand men with guns. --Mario Puzo

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. -- Henry Ford
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Regrubun -
Quote:
Can you explain why 1% immunity is the threshold of proof?

It's how exponents work.

NY claims 25,000 cases. There are ~8.6 million people in NYC. That's 0.3% of the population; an effective nothing.

Once you cross the 1% threshold you're not very many additional "turns" of the serological crank before you reach the immunity threshold (70%.) Go read the Lily Pad ticker again ("What you simply must understand"); there is for all intents and purposes essentially ZERO coverage of the pond until you are almost at the end of the series.

In this case real suppression of community transmission happens at roughly half the threshold (or ~33%) and it stops around 66-70%. That doesn't mean people don't still get sick -- just that for each one person who does they infect less than one more on average. There will be pieces here and there where that's not true, but on average it is.

So once you reach a ~1% seropositive rate in an exponential system like this you're quite close to the end. You're not at the beginning. Yet the scaremongering is ALL predicated on it being AT THE BEGINNING.

If you prove you're not then the claims are wrong. Period.

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Winding it down.
Regrubun
Posts: 673
Incept: 2008-12-30
A True American Patriot!
Sioux City, IA
Online
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Thanks! I have think that thru some more to grasp it.

Regarding restaurants workers and disease spread, my daughter was one of a private party of 20+ people all but one of which got infected with norovirus from a kitchen worker in one meal. So it's tough to believe that someone on the cruise involved in food service over several meals a day for several days didn't infect more people.
Jack_crabb
Posts: 7042
Incept: 2010-06-25

Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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Peterm99 wrote..
IMO, too much paranoia is generally better than not enough for things like this, where the downside of having too much really is almost negligible.


I would have to disagree. While a certain amount of paranoia is probably healthy, the panic we are seeing now is certainly a downside of too much paranoia.

And to all of those calling the citizens of this once-great country stupid and sheeple - I heartily concur.

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Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Kochevnik
Posts: 892
Incept: 2007-07-30

NE WA state
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I think this is an excellent analysis.

Clearly in WA state we are not seeing the kind of exponential increase that one would expect considering that the virus has been killing people in this state for more than a month now.

If this were truly apocalyptic then the hospitals here on the eastern side of the state should easily be overloaded too and that's not at all the case.

You also have the problem of explaining China - yes Wuhan got hit bad but what about the rest of China ? They basically walked away scot-free - EVEN IF you assume the chinese lied about everything there is no way they could have hidden the damage in the rest of the country - I watched on twitter from the very beginning there were tons of videos from inside china of what was going on - there a thousands of expats here in the usa that hate the CCP and would have gladly shown us problems anywhere in the country. And there really weren't any. And given the hygiene levels in China there was absolutely zero chance that a highly infective virus was not spread to ALL the chinese population.

I think one of the things that happened was that the virus was a bit more lethal when it first escaped and then attenuated/mutated over time to less lethal varieties - this is why Wuhan was hit harder than anywhere else and why once it moved further afield even in china it never caused the same level of problems.

Again, excellent analysis but unfortunately it will be a long long time before you ever change the minds of your average citizen that this is/was the truth all along.






Sancho
Posts: 72
Incept: 2013-12-06

Way, way south of Rio Grande
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There is one issue that is the extremely fast progression. Initially is like multiplying all the previous cases by 1.4, every day.

About the catastrophic case of 100% susceptible population, wherethe actual cases are close to the reported ones and mortality is 2%: no way China would lift the quarantine knowing this. No way they can hide the death of 20 million people (some are suggesting this based on the cancellation of phone lines, but this is probably due to the economic slowdown and commercial phone being cancelled, not an indication of users deaths)

Yet, if we are seeing only 1% of the cases and 10% of those cases (that is 0.1%) requires hospitalization, it still happen in a period of about 20-30 days because of the extremely rapid spread of this virus, a situation that overwhelm any health system capacity.

But the solution is to mobilize everything to reinforce the treatment capacity, and isolate the vulnerable population. Not quarantine everyone.

But, what will happen is that the curve will flatten, as it is already happening in Italy because of saturation, and the government will claim victory, justify it on the bold actions taken, people will receive a "thank you for your great effort". And people will accept that, because it's what they want to hear.

After all, you will not have another chance in your lifetime to save the world from your couch, so is nice if someone calls you a "hero" for staying at home.

Anyone trying to prove the contrary showing those f*** facts will be trolled away.

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Face a bear robbed of her cubs,
but never a fool in his folly!
Proverbs 17:12
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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@Kochevnik -
Quote:
I think one of the things that happened was that the virus was a bit more lethal when it first escaped and then attenuated/mutated over time to less lethal varieties - this is why Wuhan was hit harder than anywhere else and why once it moved further afield even in china it never caused the same level of problems.

This is what ALWAYS happens with viruses -- unless you suppress the spread and concentrate the bad strains.

Why?

Because it's an evolutionary advantage. The victim that isn't as badly incapacitated (or lives, in the extreme cases) spreads it more than the one who's flat on his ass or dies.

This NATURALLY favors the less-deadly strains. And viruses reassort to some degree ALL THE DAMN TIME. There are over a HUNDRED identified strains of this thing already.

You WANT the less-deadly ones to win, but for them to win they must spread. If you lock down the population the ones that survive are the NASTY ones that send people to the hospital and kill them. Then when you lift the restrictions you get butt****ed.

We learned this in 1918/19 -- the places that locked down got a second spike and most of the time the second spike was materially worse in mortality than the first one.

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Winding it down.
Aethor
Posts: 415
Incept: 2011-11-15

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Hmm... this is a disaster that doesn't really start when it starts, it starts when the government decides. That sounds like a wet dream for the people in power who want to do some frontrunning of their own public policies.

They know when the airlines are going to be shut down, because it's them that will order it. They know when the business will be forced to shut down, for the same reason. They know when the government will make any public announcement that the situation is dangerous, unprecedented etc etc, any official scaremongering.

They can short the living bejezus out of the market (and do the same through options as well).

Then they know when the business will be reopened (since it's them that will give the order), and they know when they will inject several trillions of newly (electronically) printed dollars into the economy (and who will be the first to get them).

So they close the short positions and go long (perhaps with the very same money that came from the bailouts, and which will effectively be added to the total government debt, for the little people to pay for their entire lives.

And, no, it's not traceable - no one but a complete fool will do that from their own trading account in their own name.

(And if some of their new long positions doesn't work out... well, that's what bailouts (at people's expense) are for, isn't it?)

Keep in mind, I don't know if they actually do it or not; this is just guessing. But such an insider trading on the level of the whole country, several countries in fact since the same can be done in Canada, EU, etc... the amount of money that can be gained boggles the mind. Based on that, I'd say chances that at least some of them are doing it are far above zero.

Flashy
Posts: 9
Incept: 2018-07-07

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Dear Mr Denninger,
Thank you for your ongoing insights and efforts for all of your work, not just your excellent work around the coronavirus issue.

I was going to make a comment around the multiplier series expanding slightly quicker than the 1,3,9,27 etc.

But then I realised that it is solely referring to new cases, not total cases, is that correct or am I being a dimwit?

Thanks
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Correct; the first person infects 3, each of them infect 3, and so on.

This is not EXACTLY correct and in fact in "less-connected" areas it might be WILDLY incorrect. Where you have somewhat-insular population groups that group is almost an isolate, but they always "leak" to some degree, and that's what spawns it somewhere else.

For large metro areas, especially those with a mass-transit system, however, you can pretty-safely treat the base exponential model as pretty-much true because the "leak" rate is so high it swamps the isolated areas.

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Winding it down.

Ebt
Posts: 80
Incept: 2018-12-22

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@Sancho

Have a good result and have the government take credit for it? Yes, that's exactly what's going to happen. IMO, hopefully Trump gets the credit for it... he's far from perfect but at least he's on our side.

And everybody thinking they're heroes for staying home and doing nothing? lol, yes, that too.

Glenn
Posts: 40
Incept: 2007-06-26

Prishtina, Kosovo
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Hi Karl,
Excellent analysis. I am no virologist, but my degree was in physics and I have worked as an EE for 30 years, so I can generally do math. I have been watching this closely since January, and it has never added up; it is spreading, but nothing like you would expect. And the cruise ship thing was very eye opening. Considering that they weren't testing for antibodies, and considering how long people were stuck there, I wouldn't be surprised if most of the passengers got it, but just mostly silent attack, and by the time they tested, nothing showed. Or maybe that was just a function of the extremely high false negative rate of the test, so if someone had no symptoms, they got a negative and called it good, whereas if someone was symptomatic, they repeated the test several times until they got the positive that they were already pretty much sure of.

I expect a very big part of this whole thing is related to viral load as well. A fair number of doctors have died from this because they get pretty massive viral loads. Also, that would tie in pretty well with your ****-eater thinking, because generally fecal-oral transmission path results in a significant viral load. In the same way, someone coughing right in your face can give you quite a blast. So maybe it is some combination of it being some sort of attenuated virus, so usually you don't actually get the virus proper, but if you do actually get it, it can be quite bad, particularly if you received a high viral load? Either way, the idea of full protective gear and a negative pressure containment environment seems to be total overkill for this virus.

Anyway, I think you are right on.

Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Yep @Glenn.

Now consider this -- would you drink ONE THOUSAND vials of oral polio vaccine if you had not been previously vaccinated? What would you expect to happen if you did that?

If the light's not on by now in any thinking person's head..... they're about as sentient as Joe Biden.

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Winding it down.
Wa9jml
Posts: 484
Incept: 2017-04-29

DeKalb, Illinois
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I think that your video clip of the address of the Defense Minister of Israel gives us a good clue as to what is going on with this pandemic. He wants the elderly and the infirm to self-quarantine, which implies that the non-elderly and non-infirm need to get back to work.

I live in Illinois, and being retired, I have noticed a curious phenomenon. All of the schools are closed, the local university is closed, and the local community college is closed. Why is this being done? This virus normally hits the elderly and infirm, who are already self-quarantined.

What I have noticed is that most of the people on my block, appear to be out of work. They are not commuting to their jobs, and if this continues, they will most likely to be permanently out of work. They need to go back to work immediately, or else this state, the other states, and the national government are all going to go belly up, with another Great Depression. This despite whatever bailout comes out of Mordor on the Potomac.
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Yep.

This isn't going to be some short "no big thing" deal.

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Winding it down.
Jack_crabb
Posts: 7042
Incept: 2010-06-25

Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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Quote:
Yep.

This isn't going to be some short "no big thing" deal.


Which is why I have to attribute this response to evil. I honestly don't believe "they" can be so stupid.

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Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Davkj1
Posts: 30
Incept: 2008-10-13

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UK to make home antibody test available
....wonder if the FDA will follow
/sarc

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/m....
Josie0802
Posts: 4
Incept: 2016-11-07

Netherlands
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Robust. Compliments.
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