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2020-03-25 08:48 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 1345 references Ignore this thread
Damn People Are Stupid
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Now the Oxford study is validating what we first learned with Diamond Princess -- that this virus has a very high "silent attack" rate.

ALL of the lockdowns of economies are stupid if that is the case because by the time you detect a public health problem a huge percentage of the population already has the virus, this continues as you start getting worried and by the time you lock down a huge percentage of the population is already immune.

ALL you get out of those policies if that's the case is economic damage.  You get exactly nothing in terms of actual benefit.


I know, this sounds lunatic; there's never been such a virus before, you state.  Except we knew it was going on during the Diamond Princess quarantine.  There we tested all the people on the boat and a large percentage were positive but never developed symptoms.  Further, we didn't test for serology but a huge percentage never tested positive at all. Anyone who didn't immediately adjust their models and expectations for this closed-system set of facts is a hack. Period.

Now look at Florida.  Specifically, Dade and Broward.

Dade county, 78 travel related cases, 51 known not travel related.  A significant number of "unknown" (bull****; illegals?), but not crazy high; 238.

Broward County: 94 travel related, 113 not travel related.  105 "not known" (uh huh; illegals?); similar to Dade.

Florida just slammed the door on bars and such about a week ago, plus "social distancing."  The first Executive Order was issued on March 17th, which was the first to impose actual restrictions.  That is 7 days ago.

The "generation" time has repeatedly been shown to be around 4-5 days.  In Wuhan, in South Korea, in Italy and here.  This has been consistent since the first public surveillance on this virus began.  You can trust it because it's consistent, it's material, and it's world-wide.  Many people and places can and do lie but to lie consistently is unusual at best.

So where is the 3:1 exponential expansion in the travel related and non-travel related cases between first infection and the lockdown when actual suppression effort began on each "turn" period?  From the time the first cases were found and the travelers came home there were several -- like five -- turns of the crank in terms of exponential expansion.  Remember that the impact of "suppression" should just now be starting to show up in confirmed positives.  In other words this thing "ran free" up to basically today, in the that impact of slowing transmission would not be visible in the numbers for at least 5 days and more likely closer to 10 (2 periods.)

The multiplier series, I remind you, is: 1, 3, 9, 27, 81, 243

So if we had 88 travel related cases and most of them were here 20 days or more then there should now be 243 for each of those in Florida, not ~200 or so in total.  Why?  Because there were five "turns of the crank" in the exponential model.

In other words there should be thousands of cases in each of these counties.  No, not everyone came home or in at once, obviously, so each of those started at different times.  Nonetheless, even the most-optimistic, biased analysis to the downside says that each of these counties should have well north of a thousand cases and if you use "hair on fire" estimates you get numbers around ten thousand in each county.

These are dense, city type areas.  They don't have "small cluster" groups where isolated groups have leakage, but essentially form their own exponential element in the tri-county area (north to roughly Palm Beach) and then leak at some rate to another one.

But.... the cases simply aren't there.  There are a couple hundred tops.  There's no evidence, in short, that the "seeds" well...... seeded in what should be a relatively homogeneous group of seronegative and thus infectable "targets."

Therefore either (1) R0 is wrong or (2) there really are all these cases and there were many, many cases before that seroconverted a large percentage of people -- but nobody picked it up because ordinary flu was no big deal, we all have flu bugs running around all winter long and nobody thought anything was odd because the percentage of those who got actively sick wasn't high enough to freak anyone out when only one in a thousand people get sick.

We have exactly zero reason to believe R0 is wrong.  If R0 is wrong we'd know that.  While there is a fair bit of variation between places all evidence is that it's well over 2.0 with estimates somewhere between 2.2 and 3.0.

Why do I pick on Dade and Broward counties?  Because they have enough cases to be statistically significant and diverse through the county.  And while both have a lot of immigrants almost none of them are ****-eaters; most are Cubans and second or third generation, that is, American citizens, by now.  They all grew up in America, they all came out of diapers to flush toilets and they're as American as you or I in terms of sanitation culture.

But in neither county did the predicted explosion in cases happen.

It is likely that both a variable R0  and the Oxford thesis is true.  That is, as I've noted, transmission is likely a function of a trinomial; one element is ****-eating and extremely efficient, the second is symptomatic transmission via coughing and sneezing (and quite efficient) and the third is asymptomatic via vapor phase from, mostly, ordinary breathing.

The latter is highly influenced by UV and thus will go to an effective zero outdoors soon if it hasn't already in the southern half of the US.  The former two are more troublesome.  Note that polio was a huge problem and transmission is almost entirely fecal/oral.  This is very cultural; you either grew up learning good personal hygiene in this regard or you did not.

But I cannot explain the lack of community transmission in the high density areas of Florida, specifically Broward and Dade counties, except by a hypothesis that there is both an R0 that is susceptible to environmental factors to a material degree and that there is an extremely high "silent" attack rate -- which leads to immunity.

In addition it fits exactly with why China could reopen, why Japan did not get immediately slammed (irrespective of their cultural factors) and why South Korea was successful.  No other explanation fits; if you're not in such a situation as soon as you drop the repression measures and "lockdowns" the exponential series resumes exactly where it was and you instantly, within a few days to a week, get hosed with a virus that can spread before you feel ill, say much less are clinically ill in a way that can be detected externally.

It hasn't happened in a single instance across the world thus far and several nations have dropped the repressions -- never mind those areas, specifically Japan, that never imposed them in the first place.  The only place that has had a mild resurgence was Hong Kong -- which of course has a border issue (e.g. imported cases) with China and can't seal that off.

Now let me expound on how we can have a virus with such a crazy-high "silent" attack rate.  This again is a hypothesis -- but it fits with the known facts above.  Indeed if you talk to virologists and epidemiological folks they will all tell you that what Oxford is now modeling and what I brought up early on when Diamond Princess occurred -- the former of which is a model that fits the facts and the latter of which is a documented fact -- are impossible.  They will all tell you that there is no such thing as a virus that both causes serious disease and yet has a high "silent" and asymptomatic attack rate.

We've all heard the famous saying: When you discard all that is impossible whatever remains, no matter how unlikely it appears to you, must be the truth.

You may remember that many years ago in America we had an attenuated polio vaccine.  I was given this as a boy; it's oral.  They passed the virus through non-human cells at a lower temperature which attenuated but did not completely kill it, then isolated them to produce the vaccine.  You drank it (right down the "oral" part of the fecal/oral route), that produced an immune response and thus you gained immunity.  If you later got exposed to the "real deal" in all its power.... no polio.

This process was known a long time ago and every single virologist knows this.  Everyone has probably heard of Jonas Salk but it was Albert Sabin who came up with the oral version, which of course is easier to distribute since you don't need someone who can give injections.  They all know the history on this.  In addition OPV, the attenuated vaccine, is one fifth the price of IPV (the inactivated, injected one) so in places where health resources are limited it's still widely used.  My daughter, when the time came as a child, got the IPV.

But IPV has a problem in that while it's effective in preventing you from getting polio it doesn't stop you from shedding it in your feces if you get infected, so if you get infected but had IPV only you can potentially transmit it to an unvaccinated person.  In parts of the world where vaccination levels are low and ****-eating is high that means you get outbreaks anyway, so those parts of the world prefer OPV either singularly or after IPV.

Why after IPV in combination, if you already got personal immunity from the IPV?  Why not just use OPV and be done with it?

The problem with OPV is that in a very, very small percentage of people the attenuated vaccine -- the oral form -- actually gives you polio!

Why?  Because it is in fact a live virus!

It's extremely rare -- something like 1 in 2 million doses -- but it happens.

How does all this relate to COVID-19?  Quite well, actually.

Animals also get coronaviruses. Many of them are very serious and veterinary vaccines have been developed.  However, and this is key, attenuated live vaccines have worked the best, although none have produced permanent immunity.  The inactivated veterinary vaccines typically require frequent re-dosing, which of course in humans is a problem but not so much with animals where you can introduce it as an aerosol in their pens or through their food and water supplies.  Part of the problem with obtaining vaccine persistence is due to where these viruses attack the body; actually producing a systemic antibody response by other than direct infection has proved elusive.

Indeed virologists have tried to produce a vaccine for the common cold well.... forever.  About 20-30% of colds are caused by coronaviruses.  They've never succeeded.

So let's postulate that Covid-19 is an attenuated virus.  Not an intentionally released one, but one that was attenuated and being worked on in an attempt to produce a vaccine.... for SARS and/or MERS.  Those of course have crazy-high fatality rates, and thus it would be well worth it to find an effective vaccine for either or both, especially in Asian nations like China.  We know there's a Level IV biolab in Wuhan and we also know that a year or so prior a handful of Chinese nationals were caught stealing virological material from a lab in Canada and expelled.  In other words we know factually that China doesn't play by the rules when it comes to safety of highly-infectious biological material -- they're more like "Nedry" in Jurassic Park.

So said attenuated virus gets out -- accidentally.  Maybe an animal they were using for testing was sold out the back door of the lab to the wet market nearby.  The virus crosses into humans, the person who gets it sheds like crazy and starts infecting people.

But this virus was never intended to cause disease.  It also wasn't finished -- it was in the process of being turned into a vaccine and thus, gee, what a bummer, it does cause disease once in a while.

Instead of one in 2 million it makes you clinically sick one in a thousand times.

That fits exactly what we've seen folks.  It fits the Oxford model, it fits why South Korea was able to get a handle on this without a vaccine, it fits why China was able to release their lockdown and not have the virus immediately surge back and it fits why Japan did not get flattened.  It fits Diamond Princess where people were dosed repeatedly and heavily, yet there were still a bunch of asymptomatic positives and a crap-ton of people who never got it.  Further, because of its highly variable seriousness of infection depending on individual human factors, including ACE2 specifically, consumers of nicotine, those on high blood pressure medication and similar get hammered much worse than others.  None of this, of course, would be true in a final product -- they hadn't finished their work to remove those undesirable elements yet, assuming they knew about them (thalidomide anyone?)

When the virus got into China it circulated and was indistinguishable from ordinary flu for quite a while because with the huge silent attack rate a clinically noticeable elevation in people getting really sick and dying took many infectious periods.  Many generations of the bug passed with nobody noticing because so few, as a percentage, get ill.  But eventually, as is true of all exponential series, as you get closer and closer to the peak suddenly it explodes in your face.  By then it had been seeded well and good into the entire world due to these magical things called "airplanes".

The difference is that due to the silent cases when the explosion in visible cases happens you're not near the beginning -- you're near the end.  The number of serologically-positive people is high when all the so-called "experts" are running doomsday scenarios under the assumption that number is statistically zero.

But we know it can't be zero.  We cooped up a whole bunch of people on a boat with a galley crew that was literally serving it to everyone on board and yet a huge percentage never got the virus and a material percentage of those who did test positive never got sick.  The most-likely explanation is that those who didn't get it were already immune and those who got it and didn't get ill joined them.  In other words our testing caught it late, just like we're doing right now.

If this is true then Xi knows it and has intentionally not told us.   China would have to know as soon as the virus was sequenced that the virus was what they were working on.  Once they figured it out they locked down long enough to check and see if their population, on a random sample basis, had acquired immunity.  Enough of them have to prevent it from being more than a minor (or even serious) nuisance -- but not a catastrophe -- at this point, so they dropped the constraints.

This scenario also explains why the CCP and Xi forced the destruction of samples and other material at the lab and hospitals early on when they realized what it was -- the point wasn't to keep the world from knowing there was a virus -- it was to destroy the evidence linking the serotypes to their work.

Further, they refused to permit US and other scientists into Wuhan and China generally at the beginning of this and still are.  Why would you do that except to hide things?  Why wouldn't more brains be better than fewer ones in any instance unless you are concerned they will discover what happened -- and if they manage to reconstruct your destroyed evidence you're ****ed!

That also fits this hypothesis.

Am I right?

Maybe, maybe not.

But if so then every bit of these lockdowns are not only stupid Chairman Xi is laughing his ass off because he knows that if we didn't do it by the time we detected the problem a huge percentage of our population was already immune and the only correct course of action was to let it go.

Serological survey for antibodies will prove if the Oxford paper -- and my hypothesis -- is the case.  If even 1% of the non-symptomatic persons have antibodies in the hotspots where the virus is raging it is hard, irrefutable proof that this hypothesis is correct.  If, as Oxford suggests, it's 50%, well...

All we're left with at that point is whether China concealed this from the world on purpose and, if so, what we intend to do about it.

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I posted this link before, but it is updated daily, and confirms everything KD is writing here.
Posts: 163344
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A True American Patriot!
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I've been watching that Italian and European "excess mortality" data for a while. THERE IS NO SPIKE IN THAT DATA ABOVE HISTORICAL AVERAGES, say much less above the really NASTY flu years in recent history.

Winding it down.
Posts: 27
Incept: 2016-03-15

Northern Ohio
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Is it possible that Trumps Covid 19 Team suspects this as well and is why Trump is talking about re-opening by Easter?

If in fact the virus is already out in the population why then do we have hotspots in NYC and other places.... **** eaters?
Posts: 161
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@Tickerguy. If that theory is true, once we rollout the antibody test (assuming that works) wont that become obvious fairly quickly so maybe the lockdowns will get scaled back and we just start to deal with the financial impacts which I still think are greatly underestimated.
Posts: 11
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Datapoint from PA: My friend's 3 kids appear to have it. One kid was tested for other illnesses and all checks were negative. The family was sent home with the kid being "presumptive positive", which means not counted in any statistics. They were told they could wait in line for a coronavirus test, but they'd be rejected so they shouldn't waste their time. With all 3 kids showing mild symptoms (diarrhea, slight fever), I would think the parents have or had it too, but they have so far had zero symptoms.
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Yet all you here from the media is WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!

Click is sure going to be disappointed by this news.

The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Posts: 926
Incept: 2009-03-25

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A person can only die once.
I am not able to tell if the following is true or false.
Then there must be a reason for all the MMT by every printing press around the world.
There has to be an over whelming reason to do this coordinated printing of money.
(jubilee for the well connected elites)
Instead of reducing the health cost in the USA, as you so often said, The gov. has approved trillions of dollars and there will be multiple payee for the same health care invoices.
2024 is going to happen but will the operators get saved?

Posts: 4
Incept: 2019-07-06

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At a large Texas hospital there 3 + patients on vents. The first is 8 days or so in. Pt had foreign travelled recently, proned on rotobed, max vent settings. Second has been on two days on pressers and 100% FIO2. Third is new last night.

There are a few other + pts in neg pressure rooms and a few other + were sent home.

Most of my regular FB feed friends are in clinical areas and they are max all in on mainstream quarantine stuff. Ive been bold enough lately to snipe at posts calling for petition signing and so on for max quarantine edicts as counties arent enough. How can the gov be so irresponsible to not go statewide?!

I get crickets on my posts except for one, an admin guy I used to work for. Had no idea he is such a flaming lib. When I mentioned seeing a model for 75 million US becoming upended with financial ruin he:
Ridicules importance of liberty and freedom in these times. How can I justify it?
Calls SIP an inconvenience
Discounts now failing restaurants because most fail anyway
Calls lockdown on businesses as being hurt
Suggests I think of the lockdown as a businessstress test
Demands a strong gov because without it keeps us from chaos
Is happy to work for the man as I have nothing to prove to myself by venturing out on my own
Worked hard to encourage my minister to cancel live services
Only relies on professionals for advice to implement this nonsense
And maybe best of all at my suggestion that our rulers at most should have allowed church services with use of masks his response is no that would burn valuable resources. As if everything begins, ends, and is solved by the hospital. Well guess f%#ing what? I already have masks before this sh#@ as many others do too.


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Orange County, Ca
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I get that we have many idiots in goobermint, but if what Karl writes is true and as many excellent reports are now showing, why the lockdowns?

They make no sense from a health standpoint and will do waaaaay more damage economically.

What is the real end game? Trial run to see how far sheeple can be pushed into giving up more rights? Bankrupt us all into socialism?

Karl has been right on this all along and from my anecdotal walking around food stores he was right . Very few distance themselves from each other and people still go out for walks or work etc.

Yet, based on the media and that clown Fauci youd think we were all going die.
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I wonder if he's contemplated that there aren't enough cops when he proves to have the wrong point of view and the public figures it out....

All those people clamoring one way, if they turn around the other, is going to turn his hospital into a smoking ruin.

Winding it down.
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There is a huge fear.

The fear is once an antibody test gets rolled out, you will see a HUGE number of positives. If I was in healthcare, .gov, or other agencies that is a bigger threat than the virus itself (which is bad, and is going to kill people).

Because the WHO, CDC, et all just brought about a recession if not depression cycle over the fact THEY DON'T KNOW HOW TO DO STATISTICS!!!!

As I said yesterday, the backlash is starting. If we don't see Fallout 5 play out live in New York by Easter, a lot of the smaller states are going to open back up. More people are going to resist when the cops raid businesses for "critical supplies", and when banksters foreclose on homes where the wage earners were taken out by the quarantine.

In short, if I was in .gov or the CDC, I would be hoping we see a massive deadly spike soon, or I would be heading to the hills because the peasants are getting angry.

Because of all that, I truly believe there is suppression of testing. The stated reason will be "to limit panic". The real reason is "They will shoot us!"
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Jesjohn94 wrote..
. . . rollout the antibody test . . .
IMO, the lockdowns will be removed once the jurisdictions that imposed them realize the grave economic impacts they have caused, independent of the availability of any test results.

The cynic in me says that a rollout of the anti-body tests and dissemination of the results thereof will be delayed as much as possible in order to minimize any embarrassment for the idiots that pushed for the lockdowns, etc.

". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwells imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
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Your analysis makes a lot of sense. It will be interesting to see how quickly things change and what the bankrupt cities/entities manage to cover with this emergency.

I've also felt my family has had this since January (passing through different family members, none sick enough for hospital/doctor visit).

I've been questioning friends in different parts of the USA about how they feel about the lockdowns (generally a good thing) and how they think people will survive this financially (loan forgiveness, handouts). And then I have to head back to reading here.

I'll add since I rarely comment/login.....I miss your written posts. I'm just not a podcast person, and generally just read through the comments. But, it seems I'm in the minority.
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Did you guys see that the idiot commie Nevada governor banned hydroxychoroquine for COVID-19 treatment in NV ? LOL
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A True American Patriot!
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If and when Nevada people die as a consequence do we still need a trial before we apply sanction to this clownface for what is obvious manslaughter?

I guess that will be up to the people of Nevada.

Winding it down.
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So would that .ean in a population of 8 million we see 8000 severe cases?

Also it seems that both sides, the banksters and the commies are using this to gain advantage.

The thing they forgot to give to the people in the middle are the pitchforks and torches.

Liberty, Comrade!
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"Click is going to be so disappointed by this news"

It wouldn't be the first time.

"Mayor Garcetti announces water and power will be shut off for nonessential L.A. businesses that dont close"

"Hey! Gonna get you, too! Another one bites the dust! And another one gone and another one gone and another one bites the dust!"

Click and Xi are both laughing at all of the stupendously stupid **** that stupid ****-for-brain people are doing. The L.A. Mayor has even forbidden bugging out of the city. You stupid American serfs are not allowed to leave unless your master says it's OK...

Hey! How about that 2T stimulation package that's just packed with overpriced stupid ****? More stupid! And Ben Bernanke said "this is no Great Depression"... Wow! That's a relief, right? All the stupendously stupid serfs can feel so much better now. And please don't spend the entire stimulation check on TP.. pinky promise?

Pisssst. Click isn't disappointed at all. Not really. He's having the time of his life here in Houston listening to Freddy Mercury tunes as he observes all the stupendously stupid **** hitting the fan as the Marxists shoot themselves in the foot, ass and soon enough right through the heart...

And another one gone and another one gone! Another one bites the dust!

Posts: 193
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The South
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@Drole - this is an opportunity for all of us to re-evaluate "friends". Some people are good to have a beer with or are entertaining or have common interests, but will be nowhere to be found in times of crisis. I am segmenting my relationships as such - who my true friends are, and who the jackasses are. This "crisis" is making that crystal-clear.
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Incept: 2020-03-17

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Nearly ever person I talk to is convinced that this virus kills 50% of the people that get it, can be spread just by going outside the walls of your house, and the government is a benevolent force of good to help us with these shutdowns. I'm social distancing not because of a virus but for my mental health as I didn't realize how stupid we are as a populace.

At an upcoming Trump presser, Russell Crowe, in full Roman gear, is going to be asked a question and scream "Are you not entertained?" ... this is a whole ordeal is a Kafka/Camus exercise ...
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East Tennessee
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So he doesn't like trump. Trump mentions a treatment and he bans it?

I don't think manslaughter is enough.

It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Posts: 535
Incept: 2016-02-11

Pacific Northwest
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****-eating sanctuaries appear to be getting hammered. All Hippa laws should be dropped: I want to know age, sex, pre-exists, etc etc... even names, so people might if they have been exposed. And if so, we can test to see if they had silent covid.

At the end of this article, one hospital refuses to provide any information. ****ers should be tossed in jail.

The press spins this like it is a nightmare, but I would think that 600 cases given the population is good news.

Posts: 45
Incept: 2016-01-27

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If in fact the virus is already out in the population why then do we have hotspots in NYC and other places.... **** eaters?

My theory is that it's a combination of two factors:

1) NYC is extremely reliant on public transportation. It looks like people get infected in one of two ways: Respiratory droplets w/in 6ft of an infected person and almost always in an enclosed space, and by touching something with virus on it, and then rubbing your eyes.

Public transport is PRIME for both of those.

2) Ever notice how many celebrities and elites are catching this? These are people who travel a whole lot and attend lots and lots of social events. NYC has the highest concentration of social elites in the country.

Silicon Valley has them as well but those are nerds who understand math and they were taking precautions very early on.
Posts: 535
Incept: 2016-02-11

Pacific Northwest
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Worth a watch. A doc saying what needs to be said, and what we have all been saying.

Posts: 114842
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee
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Not to nitpick, but did you mean "damn, people" or "damn people" ?


It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
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