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2020-03-24 14:08 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 803 references Ignore this thread
I...TOLD....YOU....SO.
[Comments enabled]

What did I say a few weeks ago, and re-iterated in a recent podcast?

I believe we are not in generation 10.  We're in generation 20.

Guess what?

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

Fewer than one in a thousand develop symptoms?

Again, only serological testing -- that is, testing for antibodies, not the bug itself, will tell us with certainty.

I, and anyone else who looked at the actual data instead of scaremongering knew this had a very high probability of being true when Diamond Princess happened.  We didn't know the exact parameters but you can run some statistical models and get a range.  When I did that I got a very wide (that is, low confidence) range.  So did others.

But now the model that Oxford ran says that my original suspicion was likely correct.  They're pegging the probable "silent attack" rate at one thousand to one, which is awfully close to my saying that it likely had "two zeros and maybe three" on it, isn't it?

This, by the way, is why China was able to reopen and they have done that testing and know the results.  It's also why Japan didn't get slammed.  It's why South Korea "stopped" it.  All these experiences fit, including Italy's.

Does this need validation?  Yep.

But it is increasingly looking like I'll get to fly this once again:

smiley

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Investor
Posts: 2
Incept: 2020-03-20

Canada
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Very interesting Karl. Great Job! You nailed it! I see that Trump and his inner circle gets it too. We are at the first steps now of getting people back to work. It's all hands on deck with damage control and re-building our economies. It will take weeks to months to recover..........but we will recover from this. Thank God that there are more sensible people analyzing the facts and the data so that we can finally get to the truth not an agenda.
Wifi
Posts: 2700
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Seagrove Beach
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Has anyone circled back to the Mexico, 70k concert issue?

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Hurricane Evacuation Plan
1.Grab Beer
2.Run Like Hell
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
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A True American Patriot!
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@Wifi -- Oh, you mean the nation with a whole 251 confirmed cases?

These people deserve THIS:
smiley

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Winding it down.
Pandemicsamurai
Posts: 30
Incept: 2020-03-17

Atlanta
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The problem we're going to face is that our "leaders" and "experts" have broken the already frail psyche of the America public with this incessant fearmongering.

Case in point: My neighborhood facilities were shut down. Now we have people on social media groups shaming others (even for less than 5 people) for getting together for a beer or letting their kids have "play dates".

We are a nation of cowards. This will take a long time to repair given the psychological damage done and most people won't believe their own eyes when the Emperor swears he has on clothes ...
Click
Posts: 1004
Incept: 2017-06-26

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Houston is going into full economic lockdown as of midnight.... "And another one gone, and another one gone, and another one bites the dust"!

Speaking for myself only, I do believe that SARS-Cov-2 has been in Houston at least as far back as September. Not all the of the serotypes were here, but the original strain from the nidus inside of China - perhaps Wuhan.

Fast forward to five days ago when Houston just started to do some meaningful testing. The results are rolling in and the incompetent dimwitted, low IQ Diversity "leaders" who run Harris County and Houston are all ****ting their pants...

BTW: it's "**** eaters" who run Harris County. Lina Hidalgo is the decider for ten million people. Here she is.... https://abc13.com/society/meet-harris-co....

Take a good like at that woman. Would you want her in a foxhole with you? Is she your "leader"? I wouldn't follow that pathetic woman across a Brook. Yet, this is your leader, Houston. Personally, I think she belongs in Guatemala, not Texas. Now do you understand why I pray to Mother Nature for the Big One? It's the only sure way to clean house. But I digress...

Suprise! America is about to take first place in the case count. Welcome to the new EPICENTER!..... If course, I'm not at all surprised... I knew the boom was coming for over a month - at least.

..... And another one gone, and another one gone, another one bites the economic dust...

And how about that India? 1.3 billion going into economic lockdown! .... And another one gone, and another one gone, another one bites the dust...

Who's next?

Are you preparing for a global depression?
Kickthecan
Posts: 555
Incept: 2008-11-06

Seattle
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Here's another article on this not behind a paywall.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/24/coronavir....

Anyone find the study itself?

Flappingeagle
Posts: 3583
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Two or three zeros.

If you are two zeros off it means that when you have 10,000 confirmed cases that 1,000,000 people have it. Because it takes awhile to manifest symptoms and get a case confirmed this may occur two generations behind the actual infection. So, when you confirm 10,000 there are really 9,000,000 who have it.

By the time you hit two more generations you are at (27mill then 81mill) 81 million and its over because the next generation is 240 million and you are out of people.

We should know for sure in no more than a week where we are in this epidemic. If it is three zeros then it is already over, no use in doing anything other than treating the sick and going back to work.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Jules
Posts: 114
Incept: 2009-04-18

Pickled in the brine of futility
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In Denver, everyone can get their pot fix after having thrown a massive temper tantrum last night, but I can't go to a well-paying job.
https://kdvr.com/news/coronavirus/denver....

Had everyone given two ****s about facts, going to WORK, and not just getting stoned, this fustercluck never would have gone so far. The global economic damage done cannot be undone at this point.

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███████ everything ████ ████ ██ is █ ██████ ██ fine ██████ █████ ███. █
Comrader
Posts: 416
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pa
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Never doubted you for a second Karl! congratulations!
Jmbruegge
Posts: 111
Incept: 2009-01-07

OWE-HI-OWE
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Karl, long time follower. You nailed this one so far. Thank you for bringing sanity to a completely insane, social media dominated world. FACTS MATTER!
Jal
Posts: 926
Incept: 2009-03-25

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There won't be anything left in 2024, or 2021 if the waves keep coming and if the people can't go and produce food.
Drone supervision of immigrant labor by the elites, from their fortress is not a future that I can see (except in s-f).



Workerbee
Posts: 2006
Incept: 2009-03-18

* Winter is Coming *
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Thank you Karl.

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Prepare for Our Valley Forge
*~* Appeal to Heaven *~*
...that those "who having no appeal on earth to right them, they are left to the only remedy in such cases, an appeal to heaven." ~John Locke
Mangymutt
Posts: 1416
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Vancouver WA
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Click
Quote:
Houston is going into full economic lockdown as of midnight...


Took you guys long enuff to join the party.

I know you are well prepared and I wish you and yours the best as you join those of us who have been living under these stupid and dangerous conditions for the past couple weeks.

I know most of you are unfamiliar with Washington State, but central Washington is a hub for farm products, which means farm labor, since about the mid 70's many of these jobs have been filled by illegal **** eaters. They take jobs "Americans don't want" and we citizens have been paying them welfare, food stamps, schools, housing costs, emergency funds and of course the big one we are currently locking down our nation for - Health Care. These people have been stealing your jobs and your economy for going on 40 years now.

The reports that I am hearing is they are letting in 2000 H1B1 workers to help fill the demand for the upcoming harvests.

So while our American youth sit around and play World of Warcraft while they practice "social ****ING distancing" for the school season that was just cut short, our Idiot leaders are bringing in a small army of **** eaters, to steal even more jobs our sons and daughters SHOULD BE DOING!!!

Talked to the clerk at the local Safeway, he is making $2 an hour extra for "Hazard Pay" Yup I guess some workers are getting extra money just because they are showing up for work. At the same time he said they have hired a lot of extra temporary help. Just so I can get out and get a feel for how things are being impacted, I go out daily to several stores. I can attest that the shelves are looking bear, certainly not normal. But what on earth are these extra workers supposed to do....Oh I mean beside keep the unemployment numbers down.

While Click and those in Huston are now being force to join the rest of us (Sorry Click and Huston)with forced social ****ING distancing, having needed medical procedures being denied and forcing our children to have their futures stolen from them so Grammy or Fat Uncle Joe don't get sent to the Vent, we are importing more **** eaters to take the few jobs available and deplete our medical and welfare system even further.

Why can't and why shouldn't our youth be out there learning what it is like to pick produce. Those jobs were filed by Americans before, (I was doing it when I was 12 years old) and they should be filled by American's now.

Yet we stay Hunkered Down out of fear of Grammies life.

We NEED MORE SHOCK AND AWE.....

BRING ON THE SHOCK AND AWE.....


smiley


Spazzoidal
Posts: 12
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Another corroborating article.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/were-g....
Ktrosper
Posts: 4074
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ft collins co
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Bravo, KD.
You da man. smiley

Now how do we get the ****ing truth out and get back to ****in work?
Are they gonna test for antibodies or they gonna keep pretending that we're about to go BOOM while testing for only live virus?

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D

Goforbroke
Posts: 7819
Incept: 2007-11-30
A True American Patriot!
The tadpole and I are hunkering down.
Online
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"They" blew our brains out.

Now we will be subject to "their" face saving bull****.

I don't have many friends, but this has caused a rather significant rift between them and me. Each, individually, has drunk the Koolaid, and is adamant about this being THE one and what a smart decision all of this lockdown stuff was. The only thing we can agree on that whether it's because of Covid-19 or the shuttering of the economy, we are ****ed. That, they can't argue with.

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And yes, I'm not deleting this because despite her appearance to be a new age nutcase, I think this is true ... Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our Light, and not our Darkness, that most frightens us. -- Marianne Williamson
Maurevel
Posts: 668
Incept: 2009-06-14

Canada
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How come the forum doesn't have the opposite "Shame on me I was wrong" sign?
Snooze
Posts: 3163
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florida
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@Mangymutt.....first of all it is H2A workers......and by law under the H2A program....if any American wishes to be employed under the same terms and conditions of the program....they must be hired by the H2A contractor.

So feel free to send your kids out for a day of healthy work.....as long as they are over 18......DOL won't allow any child labor abuses to occur.
Tsherry
Posts: 2638
Incept: 2008-12-09

Spokane WA
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"Are you preparing for a global depression?"

No one is. I have no idea what that really looks like, other than something akin to 'Elysium'.

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Omne mendacium est.
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Pretty much.

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Winding it down.
Elkad
Posts: 980
Incept: 2009-09-04


Online
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Think this is the actual paper, from a link in the FT article.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9....
Pika-steph
Posts: 56947
Incept: 2007-09-11
A True American Patriot!
Live Free Or Die; US Army Est. 1775
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A couple of things @Karl:

Japan hardly tested ANYONE. Not even grandma who had a fever of 103 for two days. I know people and am in regular contact with people there. One of my friends was livid that she couldn't get her grandma tested. Nothing, not Shibuya109 (big shopping district), nor public transport (which more than 80% rely upon), nor restaurants have been closed at all. People are wearing masks, but they normally do that anyway (it's a politeness thing). Fewer people are on the streets and on mass transit due to the two things they DID do: Anyone who can work remotely from home, please do so, and they started their public school "break" two weeks early. (They don't have Summers off like we do.)

So, their numbers reflect the fact they just flat out didn't and aren't testing anyone. None of my friends there say there is any strain on the medical system.

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"Obama is the dark-center of the anal fissure of a chancre infested, hemorrhoid laden ******* preparing to pucker and spew endless jets of diarrhea."--Chthonic
Tickerguy
Posts: 163344
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Well exactly. They're not testing because they know they don't have to. They probably caught the surveillance very, very early -- "we have a new bug, it's negative A/B, we don't know what it is." Based on that "oh, well, now we know what it is but by now enough people are immune that this person and that will get sick, maybe pretty badly sick, a few will die, but it won't blow in our face."

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Winding it down.
Nitrium
Posts: 64
Incept: 2010-05-21

New Zealand
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Here's a link to the actual article for those interested:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9....
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