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2019-01-11 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Politics , 487 references Ignore this thread
Insanity On The Left
[Comments enabled]

Occasional Kotex has queefed forth an alleged Green New Deal plan, which is utterly stupid on its face.

But she's not alone; several apparent 2020 Presidential candidates have come out for part or all of her insanity.

A growing number of Democrats considering a presidential bid have signaled support for the sweeping "Green New Deal" pushed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other liberal lawmakers, underscoring how the 2020 field is being pulled further left by the influential progressive wing.

I've written many times on this general insanity before but stupidity bears underlining, so here we go again.

In no particular order:

  • "Green" energy is more expensive and environmentally disruptive.  It's not a little more expensive either; it's a lot more expensive, with few exceptions.  The biggest reason is that most "green" sources are intermittent -- that is, you can't rely on them.  Solar and wind are the two most-obvious examples.  In fact the only "green" energy source that tends to not be intermittent is hydroelectric, and the good places to obtain that are already in use.  Geothermal is one additional non-intermittent source but there are an insignificant number of places in the US where it is viable (this is not true in some other nations, such as Iceland.)

  • Intermittent energy sources must be fully backed up with non-intermittent ones or you get blackouts.  You must pay for the infrastructure of said backup source(s) and to man them so that when the intermittent event occurs you don't have to shut down electrical service.  The cost of this backup must be paid for whether it is in use or not and yet the green proponents never include that backup in their cost comparisons.

  • Green vehicles are a scam.  The batteries are both expensive and create a hellish amount of pollution and environmental damage in their production, they are range-limited which precludes trips of over 150 miles or so from home since that extends beyond their return range (there goes any sort of "road trip"), the batteries have a cycle life after which they must be replaced (at extreme cost, far beyond the cost of any internal combustion engine) and they involve multiple additional inefficiencies due to the power delivery and charge/discharge cycles.  Lithium cells are also entirely intolerant of below-freezing temperatures; they can discharge in such conditions but cannot be charged below 0C without critical damage that leads to fires being taken, so the in-car systems must prevent that from happening and away from "shore power" (a wall plug) the energy required to do so depletes the pack.  There is no economically-rational technology to recycle lithium batteries either, unlike traditional starting batteries for cars (lead/acid chemistry) which can be infinitely recycled at low cost.  Finally there are both partial hybrid and advanced ICE technologies available that make far more sense overall; the most-promising is the to-be-delivered-this-year Mazda HX (compression-ignition) engine that should return an honest 50mpg on the highway in a midsized car.

  • Forcing environmental controls on American homes sounds good but there's a reason few people do it now -- the net gain in expenditures on a discounted cash flow basis is smaller than the cost.  For example changing out windows does save energy.  However, the windows are expensive enough that it would be ten to twenty years before you saved enough to pay for them and by that time they'd be both worn out and the carrying cost of the debt would have doubled the expense.  On a discounted cash flow basis, in other words, it makes no sense whatsoever to do this.  Now if your windows are worn out and need replacement then the small additional expense of more energy-efficient models is worth the investment, since the extra cost is perhaps 10% of the total.  But ripping out perfectly-functional windows is another matter.  Home insulation is in the same category -- it's cheap and easy to add insulation to an unfinished attic.  It's extremely expensive to rip out the inside of all exterior walls and do the same thing for them, or to further insulate a finished attic space!  Putting solar panels and inverters in an existing home or mandating them for new homes will almost never pay for itself; both have a service life and again on a discounted cash flow basis the numbers do not work.

  • Eliminating "greenhouse gas emissions" from agriculture is virtually impossible.  Farm tractors, for example, typically run on diesel.  What are you going to replace those with?  Cows fart -- a lot.  Are we banning meat entirely?  It would appear so if the intent of this "proposal" is to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture!

  • The premise of eliminating "global warming" is a farce.  Not only is America 330 million people against some 7 billion in the rest of the world most of those people are in much earlier industrial stages of development.  They are not going to keep living in the proverbial straw hut.  We could cut US CO2 emissions to zero and it would not change a thing in terms of actual outcomes.  Of course cutting CO2 emissions to zero would be impossible other than by killing all the people, since we all expel it ourselves.  Those who are suggesting such a path may begin with themselves, and don't forget that you may not have any children either.  Of course this results in the extinction of the nation and thus is idiotic on its face, but nobody seems to be willing to point that out.

  • The entire premise that man causes warming through CO2 emissions is not proved; if trillions are spent and do nothing, either because we're not the cause or we can't get the rest of the world to go along then we've flat-out wasted the money.

These people obviously support something "green" all right: They've been smoking something green and a hell of a lot of it at that.

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Flappingeagle
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OK, your 10-10 video reminded me of this.

/Salute Ray Sawyer!



Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Cvdoc
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Great summary

On a lighter note, that Cannibis woman is really hilarious and has quite a collection of videos. She knows her stuff.

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Few men desire liberty; most men wish only for a just master.
Sallust
Radiosity
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"Geothermal is one additional non-intermittent source but there are an insignificant number of places in the US where it is viable"

We could always tap into Yellowstone. What could go wrong? ;)
Aquapura
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The problem is that there is a not insignificant number of people that actually believe this **** and will vote for people because of it.

For years I've thought this is all about buying some votes and making some people very wealthy. Now I'm starting to believe there is a much more sinister motive afoot. People like AOC make me long for the establishment dems. Can't believe it but I'd take Pelosi over Occasional-Cortex's bull****.

Radiosity
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Aquapura: the end goal is getting rid of Whites and the destruction of the West in general. So yeah, you could certainly say there's something far more sinister in play here.

These people don't care about what the rest of the world is doing, or how much pollution places like India and China make compared to the West. As long as WE'RE hammered to the point where we can no longer get by, that's all that matters.

All signs point towards a new Maunder Minimum incoming, and we are most definitely NOT prepared for it. Most ordinary folks already struggle to pay for heating during the relatively brief winters we currently have. How many of them would be able to heat their homes more or less year-round? Very few.

Going to be a LOT of dead people over the coming half-century. The only thing we're really debating is which cause will be most destructive. The resurgence of Communism/Socialism? The effects of sudden and drastic global cooling? The EU leading us steadily into World War 3? America's upcoming Civil War 2.0? China's continued descent at the hands of Xi?

We're living in interesting times, to be sure.
Mangymutt
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Karl you say - "The biggest reason is that most "green" sources are intermittent -- that is, you can't rely on them."

That is bull****, you even state it yourself in the opening of your ticker.

"Occasional Kotex has queefed forth an alleged Green New Deal plan"

It certainly is not intermittent as she (And the rest) seem to have a never ending supply of stupid ideas to queef forth and perhaps most importantly you can certainly rely on them to continue queefing forth bull****. And best of all it's green, ok some times brownish green, but still green.

We may not agree with what our founding fathers had to say or what they did. But it takes only a little time and effort to get their ideas and the logic required to understand those ideas. Even after 200+ years there is no solid answer to some of their ideas, but they should still be argued, as the finer points of those ideas can still be fun to argue.

But today, we have elected ourselves complete idiots that spew complete garbage and try and shut down actual debate and logic with the concept "You don't get it", "You are being racist" or the all important "What about how it feels"

We have gone from electing the best and the brightest to lead us, to being forced to follow the dimmest and dumbest.
Wifi
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This is all being done, because the retarded left has nothing left, they are at the end of their collective rope. As soon as Hitlary went down in flames it was over, so now we have a fake Mexican, a fake Indian, a fake indigent retard (as their leader), a African American that identifies as a white person, a mutt that is a wannabe lesbianwhitelgbtq, last but not least a white woman that has a fetish with sexual assault. They all need to board the train....

smiley

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Chiff
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If one would care to see the real impact of these "green policies" go here and thumb through the last few years of updates.
http://joannenova.com.au/
Bagbalm
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I've a suggestion.
To convince the rest of us - let California implement this first.
Stop buying power from out of state.
Do the whole program.
SHOW us how...
Lenguado
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Orlando, FL
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Quote:
We have gone from electing the best and the brightest to lead us, to being forced to follow the dimmest and dumbest.

"Idiocracy" is NOT a dystopian comedy of the future, it is a DOCUMENTARY.

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I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
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Asimov
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Bagbalm: All you would hear about would be the good things. You certainly wouldn't hear about the bad.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Chemdude
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A decade ago as the biofuel "revolution" was in its early stages, I recall a graduate seminar from a visiting Prof. who had done some pretty cool work. He could convert switchgrass into furan or derivatives thereof, which would be a a high octane fuel, up to ~150s RON depending on the derivative. Until this point, no solvent had been developed to solubilize cellulose. Now, you have a solvent that could literally melt away a person's clothing. But... and this is the big but... to achieve the transformation from switchgrass to the furan target required multiple reactions at 400, 500, 600 degrees C, each proceeding for extended periods of time. I was the ******* who had to ask, "how many units of energy input does it take to get a unit of output?" Some chuckling in the lecture hall. The response: "the venture capitalists told me not to worry about that for the time being."

Re: AOC... it's too bad her high school experiences in the scientific realm (having placed in a category in the Intel Science Search) were not followed by a rigorous data driven approach going forward.
Bodhi
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Quote:
I've a suggestion.
To convince the rest of us - let California implement this first.
Stop buying power from out of state.
Do the whole program.
SHOW us how...


That should be fun. Cali had to purchase something like 10% of their electricity from neighboring states last July during a heatwave. If they can't even provide for themselves now using conventional methods I highly doubt they will do any better using so-called green methods. Especially with the mandate to ban gas powered vehicles by 2040. How much more capacity will they need to allow everyone to charge up their EV's every day?
Click
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Karl, thanks for grinding out great articles. Yeah, I know you are repeating yourself over and over again, but repetition is important. And you do bring out new examples and aspects and updates.

Regarding Radiosity's comment about "getting rid of whites": yes, that's what the Dirty Dems what to do, viz., replace white, male voters with total Marxists who support a Progressive agenda of higher taxes and less guns... It's all about disarming the population and then telling them what they can and cannot do.
Ckaminski
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Quote:
How much more capacity will they need to allow everyone to charge up their EV's every day?



https://www.statista.com/statistics/1960....

14,526,096 cars.

Assuming a 2018 Ford Focus Sedan analog with a 33.5 kwh battery, you are looking at at least 486 GWh of generating capacity.

14M * 33.5 / 1000 to get MWh / 1000 to get GWh == 486.6 GWh

https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=CA#tabs-4

CA has about 14K MWh of electricity production today. Excluding losses, CA would have to increase energy output 35x it's current production.

Good ****ing luck.

And that's a battery with 115mpge.

Anyone care to check my math?
Radiosity
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Lenguado - Add in both 1984 and Brave New World as well.

Ckaminski - It's possible if we were to implement LFTR, as Karl has written on many times. But if we did that... we might as well just stick to regular engines, given we could easily generate synfuel as one of the many beneficial byproducts of LFTR.

Of course, your first hurdle would be undoing certain moronic legislation banning the reprocessing of nuclear waste, at least in America. Then the hurdle of getting people to stop being stupid long enough to actually get them on-board with nuclear.

Honestly, rebranding it to remove the N word completely would be the best bet I reckon. People are too clueless to realise there are different forms of nuclear, some better and safer than others, so in order to make progress, removing that word completely as much as possible would be necessary.
Tickerguy
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A LFTR solution CAN be 100% carbon neutral. It likely doesn't make any economic SENSE to be carbon neutral, but it CAN be (any carbon source will do for Fischer-Tropsch, so you could condense CO2 out of the atmosphere, for example.)

Nonetheless the reason we use liquid hydrocarbons for transportation is that nobody had figured out how to get ~100,000 BTUs in a 1 gallon, 8 lb-mass space through any other means -- nor is there ANY indication that such a technological capability will occur at ANY time in the reasonable future.

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Winding it down.

Radiosity
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Karl - Yep. Out of interest, what are your thoughts on hydrogen fuel cells? On the face of it, they seem like they could be the solution, but they also have some hefty technical/engineering challenges to surmount first (storage especially).
Tickerguy
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Storage is a bitch, and hydrogen is not a fuel -- it is a storage medium (think of it as a battery, because it basically is.) It also has ****ty energy density on a volume basis (although it's pretty good on a mass basis.)

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Winding it down.
Jayhawk
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San Diego, CA
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Unfortunately, the "Green New Deal" is not really all that new, being a phrase coined by Thomas L. Friedman, the originator of "the Friedman unit," a sarcastic measure of impending victory in the Iraq war.

He wrote about "putting a windmill in your yard or some solar panels on your roof" and an expansion of that policy to something comparable to Roosevelt's New Deal in the New York Times as early as January 2007. That it came from the brain of Thomas Friedman should really tell us all we need to know about the validity of the "Green New Deal."

Another measure of its stunning value as a political weapon is that Jill Stein used the "Green New Deal" as a centerpiece of her presidential campaign in 2012, and we all know how that turned out.

Not only is the "Green New Deal" not new, its not much of a deal either, notable for its rather stunning lack of any actual program.

Wikipedia's description of the program is that, "As of December 2018, models for structuring a Green New Deal remain in the initial stages of discussion." I would class that as an understatement, since it consists entirely of a handful of generic aspirational statements such as, "Low-carbon infrastructure redevelopment in order to create jobs."
Lobo
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Asimov wrote..
All you would hear about would be the good things. You certainly wouldn't hear about the bad.


So, instead of a Potemkin village, we'd have a Potemkin state. Why reinvent lies when they can just borrow some old ones.

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Village Idiot
Pahick67
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South Central Pa
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Karl,
I'm assuming that they want to eliminate airplanes also in this green deal. At least it would get rid of the TSA gropers.
Tickerguy
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Well, not for Occasional Kotex..

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Winding it down.
Aveteam
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Assuming for a moment that these geniuses push us all into their green, electric, all-renewable utopia, that combustion of any sort is made illegal, and also that we're staring a solar minimum in the face, what do they propose we do during a long term cold weather event? What if the grid goes down? Solar cells won't work very well when covered in ice or snow or at all when destroyed by hailstorms. It seems that wind power would be susceptible to icing as well. The usual solution I've heard is battery banks, but these come with their own set of problems and still have to be kept charged by the same systems supplying power to the grid. If the weather event is long enough to deplete them then we're screwed for sure with no easy way back to the old-fashioned "dirty" gas or coal fired plants. I for one would be in favor of LFTR's but getting people past the nuclear stigma is an uphill battle as was previously mentioned.

I know this may seem far-fetched, but so did all the green renewable horsecrap a few years ago. And this is just one scenario. Nobody ever thinks anything will go wrong until it does, and then...

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"The Supreme Court of the United States has descended from the disciplined legal reasoning of John Marshall and Joseph Story to the mystical aphorisms of the fortune cookie"

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