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Tickerguy
Posts: 154622
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Yep.

Last night while drinking beer with some friends in one of the few places that erected the big middle finger to the "storm" and were open the TV was, of course, showing everyone all the "horrible damage."

Except it wasn't.

Oh sure, you can find the collapsed garage or half-built building that came down in dramatic fashion. It was half-built and not even half-strong!

Just before I left the Chitcago area we had a nasty storm that came through. There was a house being framed down the street from my place. It was literally rendered a pile of matchsticks in seconds.

My house, four or five doors down? I lost a few shingles. So did the others in the subdivision. We had some fence damage as well, but nothing real serious.

Same deal here.

And last night it was all validated while I was sitting in said bar. As the TV news anchor was "breathlessly" reporting on how horrid it all was in the background were houses and other buildings standing tall, proud and undamaged -- they had their roofs, walls and windows all up and not one board in evidence on any of the windows either.

Cat 4? My ass. HAD that been a Cat 4 every one of those ordinary stick-built houses would have been LEVELED and for those that were reinforced concrete (e.g. ICF) every single window and roof would have been trashed.

They weren't.

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Winding it down.
Lunatic_fringe
Posts: 9404
Incept: 2007-06-26

Location: Terra Firma
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NOAA claims 150 mph sustained winds but also reports gusts up to 119 mph. Doesn't seem credible.

Inline
Ckaminski
Posts: 4919
Incept: 2011-04-08


Online
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I love how all the bouys in the storm path stopped producing wind data at landfall.

Asimov
Posts: 110102
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee Eastern Time
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"Damage."

I particularly liked the gym.


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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Tickerguy
Posts: 154622
Incept: 2007-06-26
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I'm going to do some "bomb damage assessment" in the coming days -- can't get out there today, but in the next few I will and shoot plenty of video.

Gym roof blown off eh? Gee, big shock -- unsupported large-area roof? Duh.

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Winding it down.

Asimov
Posts: 110102
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Karl: Good bit of the roof was intact. ~33s in.

Stout gym roof!

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Tickerguy
Posts: 154622
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Yeah it's not that bad; the surprise is that ANY part of it stayed on.

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Asimov
Posts: 110102
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Here's a GREAT VIDEO!!!

10 seconds in, banner stating "The storm made landfall... with 155mph winds"

Shows... wait for it... A flipped over RV... With several other RV's in the background *NOT* flipped over.

~56 seconds in, cut to lady... "I lost my cabana..." Be sure to check out the horrendous damage done to her lawn furniture.


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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Lenguado
Posts: 2413
Incept: 2010-01-12
A True American Patriot!
Orlando, FL
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(Copied from my post in The Bar)

Ok, no way am I going to ever believe that Michael came ashore as a Cat 4. Period.

Here is CNN "Chopper Cam" footage over Mexico Beach.

I don't see how to post msn.com videos (if you even can), so here is the link:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topsto....

Yes, lots of damage, and Michael was a serious storm. BUT - to my eye, looks like a strong Cat 2 - or maybe a weak Cat 3 at most - in this video. But NO WAY was it a Cat 4 coming ashore at Mexico Beach.

It certainly would have sucked. And yes, there ARE a quite few "slabs". Though the slabs are pretty much all along the ocean or just across the road from it. My guess is that most of those succumbed to the combined forces of the surge AND the wind.

If it was a Cat 4 (almost a Cat 5 as was reported), the whole Mexico Beach coast would be slabbed / scrubbed for a 1/4 - 1/2 mile or more inland. Heck, the video disproves that.

Yeah, a lot of the trees are stripped (though, it IS Fall after all. /s), but it appears that most of the still standing trees have all their leaves. Especially the ones further inland.

Don't know what the media is saying at this point. I did see the local news on the tv in the break room doing some breathless reporting, but still only showing strong Cat 1 / Cat 2 damage type stuff.

No doubt it was strong coming ashore, but not the breathless CATASTROPHIC strong as is still being touted. Will be interesting to see if they quietly downgrade the storm in a week or so after going in to check out the actual damage.

FWIW

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I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
smiley
Welcome to historys first Double Dip Depression

Reason: sp
Tickerguy
Posts: 154622
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Exactly.

Yes, it was a ****ty storm. The surge was NASTY, but everyone in that area KNOWS that's a serious risk due to the shallow water. Top 10' of surge with 20' of WAVES and a ****-load of damage gets done -- on the immediate coast.

Now go in where it's all (or mostly) wind, and not battering waves, and what you see is SOME peeling of roofs, SOME toppled trees, mobile homes destroyed but a HELL OF A LOT of standing buildings AND INTACT, NON-BOARDED WINDOWS.

That's Strong Cat 2 / weak 3 wind damage. A strong 3 or beyond generates enough high-flying MISSILES that virtually EVERY window is broken unless it is boarded and a middling+ 4 or 5 blows all the non-covered windows out of high-rises and other elevated structures irrespective of missiles. It also SLABS houses and virtually ALL "curtain walls" (non-structural exterior facings) are torn off and DESTROYED.

That is simply not in evidence here. There are (well, were) plenty of substandard, older buildings with NO hurricane clips on the roofing trusses; those commonly get WRECKED in 100mph winds. And.... they did.

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Lenguado
Posts: 2413
Incept: 2010-01-12
A True American Patriot!
Orlando, FL
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Charley went over us as a middling 2. We caught 2 eyewalls - coming and going.

We live in what WAS a heavily wooded area in eastern central FL (on 5 acres). We lost about 50 trees in our front acre alone. Mostly, slash pines - but a few yellow pines also. Had 8 pines across one of the entrances of our U shaped driveway, and 9 across the other. Lost 3 huge oaks in the back near the house. Luckily, no trees hit the house. And not long after the storm, any tree that COULD still hit the house - disappeared . . . . hmmmmmm....

The street we live on is about 2 miles long. There was literally a pine across the street about every 5-10 feet or so, all the way up and down the street in both directions. I was talking to one of the Asplundh guys who was in there clearing to allow the power company to get the power back on, and he said that when he went up in his bucket and looked around, he estimated that our neighborhood alone (pretty good sized neighborhood) had somewhere between 35,000 - 50,000 trees down - mostly pines. No - I did not add an extra 0 to those numbers. And I believe him. I went up with my buddy in his plane not long after and it looked like Armageddon from the air.

With all that, the tree damage that I have seen for Mexico Beach and PCB is pretty much exactly what we saw with Charley. In fact, I would say that our downed trees were worse than what I have seen in most of the videos posted so far. Same snapped half way up, and some twisted.

This crap needs to stop (over inflating the storm strength). It WILL get folks killed when they don't believe the next time, and don't leave when it really IS a Cat 4.

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I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
smiley
Welcome to historys first Double Dip Depression
Baroto
Posts: 13
Incept: 2009-12-03

Oklahoma
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This changed my mind, lots of foundation only

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_m_F0Xxt....
Tickerguy
Posts: 154622
Incept: 2007-06-26
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It's not wind -- that's directly on the beach and they got 10+' of surge with 20+ foot waves on top!

The winds are NOT cut down by coming in a half-mile -- but the surge is.

The places in a bit from the beach -- that didn't get the 20' battering waves -- are standing and more importantly THE ROOFS ARE ON most of those places. Not all, but many.

Then there are the handful of NEW places that were built on stilts right on the beach and thus DIDN'T get surged -- they only took wind impact. They're still there. MOST of Mexico Beach was older construction and ridiculously exposed to a surge impact like this.

Now go on the OTHER SIDE of the eye where it came in (right on the other side of Tyndall into PC) and it's all the older stuff that got whacked. Why? Because there it was ALL wind -- no surge, as the wind was blowing the other way.

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Ckaminski
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I guarantee you, that's ALL surge.

Tickerguy
Posts: 154622
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Yeah and anyone who doubts the power of that... after Ivan we had a couple of 2x6s and LARGER that had come off someone else's dock.

They were NAILED INTO the pilings of my dock -- all the way in. Not sticking in a bit by their nails, ALL THE WAY IN. It required a crowbar to get them off.

Ordinary household construction handles that about as well as it does when someone in a car runs into your living room -- you wind up with the car on your sofa.

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Flyanddive
Posts: 3018
Incept: 2008-10-10

Detroit
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Look at all the dumb climate changes comments on that youtube video. Mission accomplished!

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"I've seen people go into real poverty trying to pretend to be rich."
Riverrat10k
Posts: 167
Incept: 2009-10-23

On a rock in the river
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Saw Mexico Beach on the news tonight. Many homes away from the coast still intact.

Not a 4 or 5. As Karl states, that strength levels everything! However, it was fast moving, duration IS a factor.

Does anyone really think the news channels are gonna report with everything hunky dorey in the background? NO! The backdrop will always be a destroyed property. As Don Henley sang, "they love dirty LAUNDREY!" I heard the guy that was staggering in the wind on utube while people strolled in the background during Florence was fired. Hope that is true.

I have been trying to retrieve "History" on the Weatherunderground site off and on all day for the Panama City station. I get nada. Wanted to see what wind speeds were posted.

Highest I have yet seen was 129mph at the Tyndall AFB.

FWIW

riverrat




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A motion to adjourn and go fishing is always in order.
--me channeling Heinlein
Tickerguy
Posts: 154622
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Tyndall is right on the water and the eyewall went right over it. Whatever they got in wind was pretty much as bad as it was anywhere.

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Riverrat10k
Posts: 167
Incept: 2009-10-23

On a rock in the river
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Yah, that was the highest post I saw,

Still "wondering" about Wunderground

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A motion to adjourn and go fishing is always in order.
--me channeling Heinlein
Tickerguy
Posts: 154622
Incept: 2007-06-26
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I can believe a 129mph gust. That's a strong Cat 2 (~100-110 sustained.)

There are a lot of little mesovortices in these things, especially in the eyewall, and they can easily give you the other 20mph in a wind gust.

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Riverrat10k
Posts: 167
Incept: 2009-10-23

On a rock in the river
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agreed

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A motion to adjourn and go fishing is always in order.
--me channeling Heinlein
Elcope
Posts: 90
Incept: 2010-02-24

Montana
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Tyndall AFB got pretty well hammered.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbMHqBnn....
Tickerguy
Posts: 154622
Incept: 2007-06-26
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That's about what I'd expect for a Cat 2. All those RVs were doomed. The roofing damage is commensurate with what you expect in a serious 2, especially on the big span areas. None of those are really designed to take much in the way of wind loads and they peel off.

Remember the Superdome?

Katrina hit well away from there and the Superdome was on the "clean" side of the storm. The roof got rat****ed anyway.

The surge, by the way, was 27 feet at Pass Christian. Note that this was worse than Camille, yet Katrina was a Cat 3 when it went in -- and Camille a 5.

Why?

Because Katrina was a HUGE ****ing storm -- its hurricane windfield extended over 100 miles east of the center! Camille, on the other hand, only managed to generate hurricane winds ~60nm from center despite being two full categories stronger.

Large-span roofs are a HUGE problem in big storms because the local pressure differences over the enormous square footage makes for loads that are extremely difficult to engineer for successfully. In addition Tyndall likely got nailed with at least part of the surge, although I haven't seen anything reliable on that yet.

There are also a lot of old buildings out there, just as there are at Pensacola NAS. Some of the newer stuff appears to have done pretty well.

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Wifi
Posts: 750
Incept: 2013-02-13

Seagrove Beach
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Over wash, water is very destructive.

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Hurricane Evacuation Plan
1.Grab Beer
2.Run Like Hell
Tickerguy
Posts: 154622
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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BTW here's Pass Christian after Katrina. There are NO structures standing on the beach.

That was a Cat 3 at landfall. Don't bull**** me about this being one mph short of a 5. It wasn't. It was a nasty 2.


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