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2018-10-10 16:00 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 765 references Ignore this thread
NOAA/NHC - Stop The BULL****
[Comments enabled]

Ok *******s, I'm calling you out.

There was no 155mph sustained wind anywhere on the ground in Michael's path.

There was no 140mph sustained wind anywhere on the ground in Michael's path.

There was no 130mph sustained wind anywhere on the ground in Michael's path.

There were 100-110mph sustained winds.  That's a nasty Cat 2, but not a 4 or 5.

There was a stormchaser on the ground, in a truck, that went through the eyewall and into the eye at Mexico Beach.

I know exactly where he was because I've been over there.  There were also multiple wind gauge readings in the same vicinity -- 110ish gusts, 90-100mph sustained.  Entirely believable given what I saw happen live on that stream watching the eyewall and eye pass over him, but not 155.

At 155 his truck would have been lifted and thrown; I would have watched him die on live video.  It didn't happen.

Yes, Mexico Beach and parts of PC got trashed -- mostly by surge.  No big shock there.  But most of those buildings you're seeing have intact roofs.  Not all (there's a fair bit of older stuff over there that was not designed to modern codes) but most.  And that's important because in a Cat4+ storm there's damn near nothing left; that's an EF3 tornado!

Hurricanes are nasty but let's stop with the bull****.  The video coming in (and the livestreams) do not support Cat 4 or 5 winds -- and neither does the available set of data from wind gauges right at impact.  In the same videos you see someone's roof go flying there's a billboard that's standing proud, tall and undamaged.  That does not happen in a Cat 4 storm.

The reason you board up your house is in evidence right there in those videos.  In a Cat 4 or 5 it does not matter as the entire building, unless it's reinforced concrete or similar, will be flattened.  If you get surged you're screwed.  The reason you board up your house is that in a Cat 1, 2 and moderate 3 if your house and roof is up to code and if you do not get hit with surge it will remain intact right up until the guy down the street, who doesn't have a place up to said code or has a bunch of crap laying around in his yard winds up generating missiles that go through your windows!

The "homes that were there and were moved" and are destroyed are nearly all mobile homes - and there are a lot of them in that area.That's very typical Cat 2 damage; most to all mobile homes will be destroyed in a Cat 2.  They simply cannot take 100mph winds.

I'm not trying to make light of this storm folks.  It was nasty at impact and I was fully-prepared to bug out if I had to.  As it stands we barely got tropical storm force winds here and only about an inch or so of rain.  Nothing; we get worse in a thunderstorm.  There are two videos up on my channel from the exact time the storm was coming into Mexico Beach about 20 minutes apart.

If you were between Panama City and Apalachicola, or even east to Carabelle and similar and in a place subject to surge, or in a mobile home, or in a structure not built to modern codes for the roof in particular then yes, you got it in the face.  But the damage I'm seeing is typical of a Cat 2 -- not a Cat 4.

Those running a politicized level of "reporting" on storms like this do a great disservice.  When an actual Cat 4 or 5 impact looms those who went through this one, didn't get surged and were in modern construction will stay and die.

We must put a stop to this sort of "grade inflation" especially among those doing it for political (e.g. Globull**** warming) reasons -- they are going to get people killed.

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Jack_crabb
Posts: 5539
Incept: 2010-06-25

Peoples' Republik of Maryland
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Yet another reason not to believe the lame stream media. And this isn't mere politics. This is peoples' lives they are screwing with.

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Molon Labe
Where is Henry Bowman when you need him?
How many are willing to pledge this? We mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor
Click
Posts: 310
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So far I don't see any widespread evidence of a strong Cat 4 (supposedly one mile per hour short of a Cat 5) and I didn't hear the roaring wind on any video that's associated with a really strong hurricane. I experienced Hurricane Iniki, and it sounded and felt like a dozen freight trains rolling up overhead in the sky....

I did watch a crew of ABC reporters filming from inside of a hotel in Panama City. That particular video looked worse than a Cat 2. And individuals did describe "wind blowing like the sound of a train". I'm watching from Houston, so it's hard to really tell.

It just makes no sense to me why NOAA would tack on 30MPH to the numbers. Yeah, I know they've all flipped **** on anthropogenic global warming. But are they really that desperate? This would mean that the U.S. weather service(s) are part of a conspiracy.

Meanwhile, the fall in the stock market is turning out to be as interesting as Hurricane Michael, but that's only because I'm not an unfortunate resident in the path of the vortex.


Jfms99
Posts: 288
Incept: 2009-10-06

Msumelle, Ar
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Unreal, you can't even put your faith in the Weather Channel or the MSM to tell the truth on the DAMN Weather. So even that now has become politicized so that those who wish to do can continue to push the Global Warming Scam, Climate Change, Etc., Etc..

Your right Karl by lying about the what force of storm it is people are going to die because of the misinformation and then what??????

I may have to watch the MSM tonight to see what they claim. By the way I was in a office a little while ago and they had one of the cable channels on and they were pimping exactly what you said, CAT4 and 150 MPH Winds, but the pictures I was seeing did not seem to conform that.
Inline
Max_planck
Posts: 50
Incept: 2017-01-09

Southern Arizona
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CNN showed a destroyed boat storage warehouse in Niceville. Is that Bluewater High and Dry near you?
Oldpool
Posts: 1190
Incept: 2010-06-23

LI NY
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Is there a link to the stormchasers video?

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Liberty, Comrade!
Dmj625
Posts: 668
Incept: 2010-03-01

New Orleans, LA
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I have lived on the Gulf Coast most of my life. I have been through many hurricanes, to include Andrew and Katrina. What I am seeing on TV isn't even close to what those storms delivered.

David
DMJ625

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Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on.or by imbeciles who really mean it. Mark Twain
Benthere
Posts: 87
Incept: 2018-06-16

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You want to consider a REAL monster hurricane?? Go back to Camille, I went along HY 10 25 years after and asked what was going on with the skeletons of foundations of houses and buildings that obviously were there and not rebuilt The response "that was Camille "we never found whole families who stayed, they either got blown inland and eaten or washed back to the sharks. That was WAY before Ocean Springs casinos and another million or so new residents. But but the next one will be due to global warming bull**** and republican malfeasance
Jfms99
Posts: 288
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Msumelle, Ar
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Watching the MSM and the lies continue, the reporting is over the top.
Crossthread
Posts: 6349
Incept: 2007-09-04

Wilmington, NC
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Karl, I agree with you 110%
I "watched" All 3 Stormchaser videos, yes We were entertained..
NOT ONE of them showed much more than What I experienced HERE in SENC, over the years..


I observed a CAT 2
I'm about to get "banned" pointing this out.. With Facts & observations..
What I "observed today", WE here in Wilmington, NC experienced WORSE, AND We Are "built-up" to Hurricane "codes" re 120~150 Mph..
Cat 3 or better We woulda seen ROOFS flying though the streets, PINES SNAPPING 20 or so feet above ground level..
Yet, We watched a Canopy, still standing in the midst of the storm..

Again, I observed a Mid-Strong Cat 2..
Well, the Surge made for great TV.. THAT was expected..

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Cognitive Co-Dependency is when a normal rational person, internalizes irrational illogical presentations, and somehow reconciles them to fit their scripted indoctrination of logical analysis.
Quote:
Samuel L. Clemens:There is NO Native Criminal Class; EXCEPT for CONgress
Crossthread
Posts: 6349
Incept: 2007-09-04

Wilmington, NC
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Karl quick get the Data before it gets scrubbed..
It's still reporting//
NHC says it "stopped"..
I just grabbed a screen shot..
Inline

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Cognitive Co-Dependency is when a normal rational person, internalizes irrational illogical presentations, and somehow reconciles them to fit their scripted indoctrination of logical analysis.
Quote:
Samuel L. Clemens:There is NO Native Criminal Class; EXCEPT for CONgress
Wa9jml
Posts: 228
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DeKalb, Illinois
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One of my friends is a top notch weather forecaster. But he swallows the lies from NOAA like they are the God Received Truth. He is busy on Facebook tonight predicting that this storm is one of the worst in history. Strangely these historic storms seem to mainly come during Republican administrations. I guess this is mainly a coincidence?

I have seen what flooding can do, and I have also seen what strong winds can do. I have been through a host of floods on the Kishwaukee River, and I have also seen the Pecatonnica River flood for many miles. The last city I worked in had 110 mile an hour straight line winds for about a half hour, and that caused extensive damage. I also went through Fairdale, Illinois when they finally opened it up for traffic to pass through the place, and it looked like a B-52 strike without the craters. A close to F5 tornado went through the place, and one of my friends was saved when she dove under the kitchen table when the house was demolished. The mother in law of one of my other friends was not so lucky, and died in the wreckage of her house.

What is happening in Florida is serious but not a true catastrophe. The only truth being spouted on the news coverage of this storm is, "We're All Gonna Die!" Yes we certainly are, but not necessarily due to this storm.
Elcope
Posts: 90
Incept: 2010-02-24

Montana
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@Wa9jml

Yes, that is what happens when you politically weaponize the weather. That way you can;

"George Bush hates black people" & "Donald Trump hates Puerto Rico".
Asimov
Posts: 110102
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Live streamer, somewhere right around 3 hours in is the eye.


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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Crossthread
Posts: 6349
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Wilmington, NC
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Asimove: @ 2:59 +/- those are Cat 1 or at most Cat2..

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Cognitive Co-Dependency is when a normal rational person, internalizes irrational illogical presentations, and somehow reconciles them to fit their scripted indoctrination of logical analysis.
Quote:
Samuel L. Clemens:There is NO Native Criminal Class; EXCEPT for CONgress
Asimov
Posts: 110102
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East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Eyewall @ Panama City Beach


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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Jduwaldt
Posts: 675
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Orange County, CA
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Quote:
Those running a politicized level of "reporting" on storms like this do a great disservice. When an actual Cat 4 or 5 impact looms those who went through this one, didn't get surged and were in modern construction will stay and die.

Mission accomplished ??? smiley

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It's not an issue of "cooperation" vs "go it alone": it's a question of involuntary vs voluntary relationships.
Tickerguy
Posts: 154622
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Quote:
Eyewall @ Panama City Beach

And?

See all those buildings with perfectly intact roofs -- and not all of them heavy reinforced-concrete structures (e.g. residences)? That's a Cat 2.

A Cat 4 is effectively an EF3 TORNADO in terms of windspeed. It SLABS houses and blows out NEARLY ALL high-rise windows (Cat 5s DO blow out all the windows.) After Katrina the lower part of MS where it came in was LITERALLY scoured to the concrete pads through entire neighborhoods.

Show me that sort of damage, I buy Cat 4. I WATCHED, in real-time, a guy punch the eyewall in a TRUCK. In 155mph SUSTAINED (~175mph gusts) he would have been literally picked up and THROWN like a toy. I was watching because I EXPECTED to see him die and was intending to laugh at him in public.

He didn't die because it wasn't a Cat 4. It was a Cat 2.

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Winding it down.
Flyanddive
Posts: 3018
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Detroit
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Speaking of Katrina, that was a hell on an advertisement for ICF construction.
 

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"I've seen people go into real poverty trying to pretend to be rich."
Tickerguy
Posts: 154622
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A True American Patriot!
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Yeah -- THAT is what a Cat 4 looks like when it comes ashore.

Note that while the ICF is standing the roof is ****ed and there is NOT ONE WINDOW intact. NONE. The ENTIRE curtainwall exterior has been stripped off as well. While the shell might be there the contents are DESTROYED as well as the doors, windows and ALL of the "pretty."

ALL of the stick-frame buildings are GONE. Not damaged -- GONE.

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Winding it down.

Benthere
Posts: 87
Incept: 2018-06-16

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Had a microburst come through my western burb of Chicago 15 or so years ago, best guess (by the smart people at MDW and ORD With all the gadgets) was maybe 65 mph which lasted about 25 35 seconds... stripped half the leaves off the trees and not a small amount of shingles. I remember thinking sustained winds of 75 85 100 mph in a hurricane for half an hour???? F me. Cat 4 ?
Crossthread
Posts: 6349
Incept: 2007-09-04

Wilmington, NC
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Asimov everyone to those "roofs" flying off?

I'll lay down My NEXT SSD/SSI check they, (homes & roofs) were Older than 30 years old.. (if not20)

They DID NOT have the Cane straps tying the Roofing Joist's into the Wall Joists/bearing loadwalls..

(I hope I got that terminology right )..

otherwise known here, in my area they are required, NEW building codes,, "hurricane clips"..

They keep the roof from Lifting off.. Like you seen,,
Inline

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Cognitive Co-Dependency is when a normal rational person, internalizes irrational illogical presentations, and somehow reconciles them to fit their scripted indoctrination of logical analysis.
Quote:
Samuel L. Clemens:There is NO Native Criminal Class; EXCEPT for CONgress
Crossthread
Posts: 6349
Incept: 2007-09-04

Wilmington, NC
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Cat 4 What We should be looking at.. On Florida's Barrier Islands
Inline

----------
Cognitive Co-Dependency is when a normal rational person, internalizes irrational illogical presentations, and somehow reconciles them to fit their scripted indoctrination of logical analysis.
Quote:
Samuel L. Clemens:There is NO Native Criminal Class; EXCEPT for CONgress
Flappingeagle
Posts: 2879
Incept: 2011-04-14

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The storm advantages of an ICF house seem to be one, if a tornado comes and you are inside you have a decent/good chance of living, and two, if you somehow can't evacuate when a big hurricane comes you have a decent/good chance of living. In both instances it appears that it would be like being the engineer in a train wreck. A true front-row seat.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Asimov
Posts: 110102
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee Eastern Time
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I posted those videos in support of the fact that it was ~cat 2. Not the opposite.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
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