Michael Update -- 10/10 0600
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2018-10-10 07:53 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 224 references Ignore this thread
Michael Update -- 10/10 0600
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As expected it appears Michael will be missing Ticker Central to the east.

Not by a lot, but by enough.  This is a small-diameter storm.

However, as I said in my last post yesterday on this, if you're Tyndall AFB sucks to be you, and that appears to be verifying.  The expected surge depth is from 9-13 feet (!!) between there and Keaton Beach.

I'm not sure I believe the claimed windspeeds (now claimed to be Cat 4) but we shall see.  If it's actually a Cat 4 then anything in the path up to and possibly including reinforced buildings is going to be either heavily damaged or destroyed.  Common residential construction will not survive Cat 4 winds; that's the equivalent of an EF2-EF3 tornado that lasts for an hour or more.  The tornado that was kicked off by Ivan and went through Marianna was rated as an EF3 and I saw part of the damage path -- it literally slabbed houses.

Note that these windspeeds generate light-object missiles and can lift cars, including potentially throwing them at the upper end of this range.  Or, as I've said before -- the issue isn't that the wind blows, it's what the wind blows.

Assuming the NHC's windspeed claims are truthful this is roughly equivalent to a 10-20 mile wide EF-2 or EF-3 tornado.

Just remember once this storm has passed that it's the empirical evidence that verifies the claims; a Cat 4 strike is no joke and unless you have the equivalent of a tornado-rated shelter you're insane to remain in the path of it.  If you are in the Panama City to Appalachicola area right now you can still escape but you need to do so right now -- within the next hour or so -- and get north and west.  Get to 231 if you're east of PCB to roughly Tyndall or on 71 if more toward Mexico Beach or Port St. Joe and get the hell out of there NOW.  If you're east of Port St. Joe then consider going through Perry and east instead.

Remember this is a small storm (hurricane-level winds only extend 45 miles from the center) but the surge damage will almost-certainly be over a much larger area than the wind.  If you're within 10nm or so of the exact landfall you're at risk of (assuming NHC is being truthful on windspeed) of any building you're in being severely damaged or destroyed.  But if you're anywhere between roughly Tyndall to close to Steinhatchee and within a few miles of the coast the risk of a 10' wall of water coming at you is very real.  In particular, as I noted in my last missive, the "pocket" between Steinhatchee and Appalachicola is a hellishly nasty area for surge because the water depth up in that pocket area is shallow and the contour acts like a funnel.  Even moderate storms cause extensive surge-based flooding and if this is being accurately reported as to windspeed the surge in this area is likely to be extreme.

The biggest unknown right now is whether the bay system north of Panama City (and the inlet there) will remain on the clean side or the eyewall will come ashore with it on the dirty side.  A few mile miss could ram a 10' wall of water right up into those areas.  The odds are good that this is avoided but if you bet on that in the immediate Panama City area and are wrong.....

In the worst case you can hide from wind in anything sturdy enough; you will hate it but live.  Surge on the other hand can and will trap and drown you.  IMHO unless you have at least 20' of elevation and are anywhere from Tyndall over to roughly Steinhatchee, and possibly fronting any of the bays in Panama City, I'd be out of there now.  Consider it a daytrip; by late this evening the storm will be north of Florida and while it'll still be sporty the true ugly for Florida itself will be over.

I can see the eye on local short-range radar now; it's clear and closed.  This storm will be one evil bitch if it gets you, but it's quite small unlike some of the monsters (e.g. Ivan) we've dealt with in the past.

Good luck folks -- here it's gonna rain and be a bit sporty, but it'll be quite ugly further east in a few hours.  If you're in the direct path get the hell out of there right now; in another 2-3 hours the risk of being cut off will be unacceptably high.

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Flappingeagle
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If I ever move back to the southeast near the coast I'm going to build either a block house, and fill the blocks with concrete, or an insulated shack (so that it will be comfortable if flimsy). That way I will either ride out the storms or drive away.

Flap

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Tickerguy
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Yep.

There's a decent argument for a small, disposable place. Don't have anything valuable inside that can't fit in your vehicle, and if/when it comes just LEAVE -- **** it. No insurance expense (you don't carry any on the building) on purpose and figure every 10-20 years you buy another one.

That sort of approach actually works economically fairly well due to the insurance costs for windstorm and flood here. Keep the all-in cost under $100k and it's likely a big win on a money perspective.

The problem with block is that you still have a surge risk, so you need to do it where you have enough elevation to NOT get flooded. But then you need to build to Cat 4 windloads, and that's not easy -- it basically means surviving an EF3 direct tornado hit without structural damage.

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Wifi
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Seagrove Beach
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Local Live Beach Cams

https://www.surfline.com/surf-report/spy....

https://sowal.com/webcam/seagrove-beachc....

Not sure how long these will be online due to electrical outages

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Tickerguy
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Seagrove Beach is NOT in the line for the surge. Anything in Mexico Beach IS.

I have one here and it looks pretty ugly..... SO FAR it's still online but it won't be for very long!

https://mexicobeach.com/mexico-beach/bea....

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Elkad
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2 stories of block (plus just a few feet of ground elevation) should work.

Put all your plumbing, electrical panels, etc upstairs. Heat pump on the roof.

When you get the warning, move the downstairs contents upstairs. When it's done, spray out the downstairs and put your stuff back.
Tickerguy
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I'd do 2 stories of block with the bottom being the GARAGE. Then get the cars the **** out of there when the **** comes, and it will.

Nothing of value down there at all and make sure you have a good 10' of base elevation. For MOST storms your garage will remain dry. For the big ones like this you get the vehicles the **** out of there and nothing ELSE (including electrical panels!) is down there that you care about -- so you can just hose it off and potentially shovel out the sand. Put the door up so it's not destroyed.

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Click
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"I'd do 2 stories of block with the bottom being the GARAGE. Then get the cars the **** out of there when the **** comes, and it will."

Yes, and don't forget to snake some rebar into the blocks before filling them with cement. There are car/truck parking lifts for under $2000 that would be useful for a garage with a high ceiling: https://www.bestbuyautoequipment.com/nat....

My personal SHTF truck is an EMP resistant 1973 Chevy high clearance 4x4. I stacked and piped the intake so it'll still run with the engine compartment flooded. When Harvey hit Houston it came in very handy for my boys in the aftermath. A good chain saw ( or two) and a manual crosscut saw is also essential. A log chain to pull **** out of the way and a bad-ass bumper to hook it to comes in real handy.

There are going to be a lot of trees toppled from wind and wet soil --- widow makers we call them--- so watch out for those, too...

This is all part of the cost of not having to shovel snow...



Riverrat10k
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Best of luck to you KD, and I hope all others in SW Florida heed your advice. I know YOU are prepped!

Closer to home, NC is going to be savaged with some wind and a lot of rain again.

I remember after one hurricane, I could barely get through the bottomlands to do environmental assessments. The blow-downs were/are still everywhere.

Bad setup to have a heavy storm on already saturated ground.

Best to all.

riverrat

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Whitehat
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if you want to reinforce with rebar, the following applies.

the rebar must travel through every block; you will be using a lot of it. the rebar must be installed from the footing up when the foundations are poured. it must extend to and be attached to the roof plate and rafters as approved. the blocks must be filled with rated concrete (PSI pressure according as approved) where the rebar travels through it. this is an expensive job. it also helps if the garage has opposite ends opening to lessen the force of the water on the structure.

the disposable house option seems like a better one.

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There are two ways to be rich: One is by acquiring much, and the other is by desiring little.
snow, seasons, distance and dirt roads: SSDD
"Be not deceived; God is not mocked; for whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap" (Gal. 6:7)
Tickerguy
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@Whitehat -- Yep, it's not cheap to build something that will ACTUALLY hold up.

It's far worse to THINK it will and be wrong than to not at all.

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Jkc054
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Greenfield, IN
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How can Hurricane Michael be a CAT 4 since the highest surface wind speed I can find using earth.nullschool.net is 89 miles/hour? Doesn't NOAA classify hurricanes based on measured surface wind speed?

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Tickerguy
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Panama City Beach is LIKELY on the clean side of the storm still. Panama City ITSELF looks to be about to take an eyewall impact to Mexico Beach. The core is SMALL; the REALLY bad news area is going to be ~20 miles wide.

CNBC is amusing; they have someone in PCB and they're getting tropical storm force winds -- but the winds are blowing OFFSHORE (they're on the clean side) and they're almost-certainly safely outside of the eyewall area.

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Thelazer
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Davenport, Fl
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Build a concrete pad, water and power hookup.. and park your RV on it...
That's what I want to do on a beachfront lot.
Riverrat10k
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Looks like it will EMPTY Choctawatchee Bay with easterlies/northerlies.

Be safe.

riverrat

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A motion to adjourn and go fishing is always in order.
--me channeling Heinlein
Tickerguy
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Naw -- we're too far away from the core. NONE of the core winds will get here.

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Riverrat10k
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Just sayin'.

During Florence, New Bern, NC was flooded by the sound blowing west through the funnel of the river. The sound behind NC's Outer Banks was nearly dry at Hatteras due to wind only. This was well north of the storm center

Course Flo provided sustained TS and H winds for an extended period. This one looks like a faster mover.

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A motion to adjourn and go fishing is always in order.
--me channeling Heinlein
Tickerguy
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Yep -- I know the water and wind dynamics REAL WELL around here (not my first Rodeo!); we're safe here on this one. Panama City is potentially in trouble though -- more northward motion last few frames and if that **** keeps up the pass is going to get assrammed and everything in the bay will get surged to ****.

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Bagbalm
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When I was a kid we lived in New Bern NC and went down to the beach on the barrier island almost every weekend in 1961. Back then when you went across from Morehead City the road ended pretty quickly headed south. There was one big fishing pier out there and not much else. The local people would say plainly that you were nuts to build anything but a tar paper fishing shack. Like one old boy told my dad - if a big enough storm comes in you lose not only the building, but it's entirely possible for the storm to cut a new channel and fill in an old one. So your actual lot is gone.
It used to be pretty and fun to walk down the beach for miles with nothing but dunes and oat grass. We'd picnic and take pistols to shoot and 'surf' on government surplus air mattresses blown up hard, when there was a storm off shore making decent waves.
Now it is ruined - nothing but huge 'cottages' shoulder to shoulder thanks to Federal insurance.
Tsherry
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Spokane WA
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Rebar should be epoxy coated in any marine susceptible environment or in any corrosive soils.

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Omne mendacium est.
Whitehat
Posts: 744
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@Tsherry -- yep, would add that it should be coated in every application as it literally explodes the concrete that would otherwise last over 150 years when it corrodes. this is why half of the country needs to be ripped up and redone.

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There are two ways to be rich: One is by acquiring much, and the other is by desiring little.
snow, seasons, distance and dirt roads: SSDD
"Be not deceived; God is not mocked; for whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap" (Gal. 6:7)
Riverrat10k
Posts: 167
Incept: 2009-10-23

On a rock in the river
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@ Bagbalm.

Yep, the more things change, the more things change.

Ocracoke Island can still only be reached by ferry and used to be the venue of pirates, outlaws, and fisherman.

I knew it was over about 20 years ago when the southern point of the island was covered in SUV's full of families with children.

Difficult to fish and nowhere to even take a piss!

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A motion to adjourn and go fishing is always in order.
--me channeling Heinlein
Delphis
Posts: 2155
Incept: 2009-06-04

Washington
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Nine webcams of the storm. KD would know which ones are relevant.

https://www.statesman.com/news/20181010/....

Be safe, Karl!

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"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe."....Albert Einstein
"Be courteous to all, but intimate with few, and let those few be well tried before you give them your confidence."...George Washington
Tickerguy
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This guy right here is gonna die in about 20 minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqAj_KF7....

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Click
Posts: 310
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"this is an expensive job"

Most any job done right is both time consuming and expensive. And that's the reason why most little pigs build their house of straw and sticks, not bricks.

Moreover, most of the little pigs would rather suck on the big, fat government tit and receive government protection from a huffing and puffing wolf...

I've been a student of human nature all of my life, and I know how I can count on three things: death, taxes and humans repeatingly doing stupid ****.

You just watch how most of the little pigs scream for government help. Watch how Trump is blamed for EVERYTHING --- including global warming. The little pigs won't blame themselves, nor will they admit it is THEY themselves who should bear the costs associated with not having to shovel snow...

Remember some of the nursery songs when you where a kid? And how the little pigs sang "who's afraid of the big, bad wolf, the big, bad wolf? Who's afraid of the big bad wolf? --- na na na na na, na... " And when the big, bad wolf finally showed up the pigs who built their houses of straw and sticks ran to the one who built his of bricks.... That's a simple lesson in human nature.

Many of those nursery rhymes were written to teach, and not just for entertainment.

Some people never learn. And you can't even teach them nursery level wisdom. They'll always be dimwitted from lack of common sense, even if they have a Cornell degree.

A job done right is expensive, but I was taught that a job not done right is even more expensive, because it has to be done twice....

We live in a world of cheap ****, e.g., fast food, disposable lighters and Home Depots and Walmarts with shelves packed full of cheap **** made in China all funded by cheap credit.

This hurricane happens to be a good metaphor for what's going to happen when a once-in-a-hundred-year economic hurricane directly hits the banking system and levels it.

Having pontificated all of the above, I must admit that I do like and agree with the idea of living in a camper on beach front property. Spending the winters on the beach and the summers in the North woods is very appealing, indeed.
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