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2018-10-09 09:13 by Karl Denninger
in Musings , 198 references Ignore this thread
Michael: Here It Comes
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The hype machine is in overdrive -- again.

Let's face it -- if you live on the Gulf Coast you need to be prepared all summer and through Halloween for the potential of a nasty storm, and then there's the odd one that shows up in November.

But the screamfest does not help.

Saturday I was moderately concerned that Ticker Central, which is near Destin, was "under the gun."  Sunday not so much, and by yesterday as the breathless screaming continued, along with out-of-gas conditions around here it got absolutely comical because the alleged westward movement of the storm that the models had predicted didn't happen.

In addition there's a huge dry patch of air over the western Gulf -- it was there over the weekend, it was there yesterday and it's there now.

 

Now granted this doesn't stop a storm over warm water from intensifying but it does prevent the sort of "blow up" situation that can occur where a storm radically expands in both size and power in a very short period of time as that dry air keeps getting sucked in and inhibits the storm keeping its circulation closed off.

Between the two the odds of this area being butt-pounded were very low -- maybe 20% over the weekend, last afternoon and evening around 10%, and now likely even less.

10% isn't zero but it's also not "Calamity now".

On the other hand if you're in the Panama City to Carabelle area you're in trouble.  Everyone over there has known they were at some risk but that is where the 900lb Gorilla is in terms of magnitude of the risk in absolute terms.  The only good news is that the population density is, on a relative basis, lower by a lot and as such there's much less to destroy.

Of course if it's your house or business that's cold comfort, isn't it?  Tyndall AFB, in short, sucks to be you.

Wakulla Coutny last night issued what I found to be a particularly-annoying warning -- they told people to get out but also aren't opening any shelters because... wait for it.... they don't have any rated for more than 115mph winds.  Yeah.  Oh by the way that's just south of Tallahassee.  If you live there I hope you're getting out of there now if your residence is threatened by either trees that can come crashing into it or it's just not up to snuff to withstand 120mph winds, never mind the very flat land, relatively high water table and thus severe flooding potential.  In addition most of the roads in the area have high potential for debris blockages (mainly fallen trees) which can easily cut off escape should it become necessary.  Getting caught out in a car in 100+mph winds is highly annoying but having that compounded by a flash flood can kill, so..... yeah.

But then there's reality, which is that 100mph sustained winds more than a few miles inland are.... unlikely.  And I'm being kind here to the NHC and NOAA.  Indeed with this sort of small-core storm, and it will remain one due to that dry air which has been there and remains, unless you happen to be in the very small window perhaps 10-20 miles wide where it comes in right on the beach I bet nobody records a three-digit one-minute sustained wind.  100mph gusts, perhaps.

Nonetheless 60-70mph winds are plenty enough to ruin your day, knock out power to wide areas and, if there are trees around that are less than stout, topple them -- which is very bad if one happens to come through your roof and then it rains inside for eight hours straight.

Don't get me wrong -- these storms are serious business but we do nobody any good by cranking up the breathless hype machine to sell clicks and ads.  I stayed here for Ivan and it was a real five-alarm mess.  Ivan was a long-track storm with a lot of windfield; it earned the title "monster."  But then not long after Ivan we had Dennis that threatened this area and we also stayed.  Dennis was a pretty-decent analog to this storm; it was a small storm (much as Michael is) in that hurricane winds extend just 40 miles out, but tropical storm winds are a nice big 195 mile radius.  However Dennis was materially stronger than this thing is expected to be.

Navarre, which pretty-much took Dennis "in the face" got hit hard.  Boats in the road, condos badly damaged, some buildings destroyed, etc.  My house, as the crow flies, is roughly 27 miles from the center of Navarre on the dirty side.  Here it rained and was windy but in terms of anything serious that storm here was one big fat zero.

So if you get "missed" by 40 miles with a storm of this sort of size, especially if you're to the west of it, you don't get a hurricane at all.  You get a little blow job instead of a big one, and perhaps a bunch of rain with the latter, along with the surge risk all to the east of the center.

Do take these things seriously folks, but don't buy into the hype.  I never make 100% decisions on these storms until 6 - 12 hours before projected landfall but for those people west of the Okaloosa/Walton county line, even just a bit, I've said since the weekend that the odds of anything really awful out of Michael are low -- but not zero.

I bought some beer last evening so I've got beer, ice and water but given the current outlook I give us 50/50 that I don't even lose electrical power at Ticker Central and I may, just for grins and giggles, take my camera out on my dock in the middle of it tomorrow (assuming it's not raining hard enough to trash it; I don't have an underwater housing for it) just to add some honesty in reporting to go along with the breathless insanity out of Cantore-style glo-bull****-warming screamfest.

Around here you've got a better set of odds of getting a serious blowjob from Cantore than this storm.

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Rufust445
Posts: 779
Incept: 2007-08-11

Emerald City
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Listening to CBC radio, they just kicked off their 10:00am news with wailings of gloom and doom about Michael. Then they moved on to other stories from their unhinged viewpoint. "If it bleeds, it leads."

They play nice music though, until about 2:00pm.

A friend I knew from work has lived in a condo on A1A just south of the Space Center since the early '90's. He has ridden out three hurricanes that I know of, despite evacuation warnings. Took a calculated risk.

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"The stock market isn't bullish, it's bull$hit." -- Alan King
Redjack
Posts: 97
Incept: 2018-01-29

Iowa
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Family in NC by OBX.

Killed some of the bushes. Rained a lot. Messed up some stuff across the sound in Maneo (not sure how to spell that) and down the coast. But it isn't total devastation.
Mangymutt
Posts: 681
Incept: 2015-05-03

Vancouver WA
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Up this way we simply do not get strong winds like you experience down there, sure the coast gets winter storms and about once every 3 to 5 years a funnel cloud forms and they try and label it a "tornado", but hurricanes, tornadoes and to a large degree sever thunderstorms do not happen up this way.

What we do get is forest fires and granted fire and wind are two different things, but it seems like increasingly they are also trying to blame the fires on climate change.

I sure do not want to make light of sever weather conditions I have never experienced and know nothing about, and I do realize fear sells. But "They" always seem to go overboard in how dire things could be. And say YOU!! are to blame for it, because......Globul Warming.

Good luck down there and I truly hope it turns out like most hurricane warnings - Over Blown -

And it is a good thing you have beer and ice. You now have all the ingredients you need to get Christi Ford to you place :p

Plus you have ice to throw at people while you drink your beer......
Tickerguy
Posts: 154622
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A True American Patriot!
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smiley

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Dcsleeper
Posts: 452
Incept: 2012-10-11

Northern VA
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Florence whomped on parts of NC.
I-95 was closed for DAYS. When does that happen?
But as a slow moving storm it was mostly a water event.
Michael looks to be a wind event. We're mildly worried in northern NC. Looks to be like it will be going right over us. But there's no evacuation order and likely won't be.
Thankfully, ThunderSnow is not predicted. ;)
Wifi
Posts: 750
Incept: 2013-02-13

Seagrove Beach
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Total agreement, we are going to loose power (have generator), for how long unknown. Other than that no more no less than a bad thunderstorm, that will last for several hours.

The wind field map has my residence, in the outer edge of the tropical storm force winds, so likely I will not see sustained tropical storm force winds, gust yes, maybe even a gust of 75MPH. I've been through Camille, Eloise, Opal, Ivan, and many more, too much to list.

For years relatives, friends etc. poked fun, since I have always maintained supplies, for just about any situation. They started calling me a "prepper" a couple of years ago

I love to go camping.smiley

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Hurricane Evacuation Plan
1.Grab Beer
2.Run Like Hell
Wa9jml
Posts: 228
Incept: 2017-04-29

DeKalb, Illinois
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One of my former students lives near Charlotte, North Carolina. After all of the hype, she and her husband lost one shrub, and one tree, and the creek bordering their property flooded somewhat.

I recall a lot of hype about the hurricane that wiped out New Orleans during the reign of Bush the Junior, but not much during the reign of Obama. Might the hurricanes be politically partisan? Inquiring minds gots to know!
Tickerguy
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I put up the corrugated panels (just now) on my water-facing windows. Not so much for the wind, but for what it MIGHT blow -- like someone's boat.

It was PROBABLY a waste of time, but then again I have them and it takes me about an hour and a half to put them up, so why not?

I'm CONTEMPLATING boarding the east-facing windows. I have a couple into my master bedroom that are double-pane and another one that's glass-block. The latter I'm not worried about -- if THAT is breached I have bigger problems -- but the double pane windows are kinda expensive, and putting a piece or 3/4 ply up in an actual roaring hurricane is a bitch, so I may go ahead and do it now.

I DO have the wood to armor the entire house, but I have no intention of doing so. It simply isn't going to be that bad here. Now if I was further east then the entire house would be boarded up and depending on my surge exposure I might be on my way north by now.

As it stands I simply am not worried at all about surge, and only a bit about wind.

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Budget-racer
Posts: 31
Incept: 2016-03-14

Virginia
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Here's one of my favorite places to check in for big weather events. Gets highly technical at times, but the other simple stuff and hilarious callouts of the overhyped forecasters is worth wading through it for me. https://mobile.twitter.com/crankywxguy
Click
Posts: 310
Incept: 2017-06-26

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In Apalachicola, population 2,500, some resolved to stay put.

"We've been through this before," Sally Crown said she closed the cafe where she works because the city was shutting off the sewer system in anticipation of the storm.

Crown planned to go home and hunker down with her two dogs: "This might be really bad and serious. But in my experience, it's always blown way out of proportion."

Fine by me. Stay or go. It's your choice, Sally. And for those of us who live where we don't shovel snow it's the risk we take.

I reside in Houston, and Harvey didn't get overblown, it was greatly underestimated. Yes, the weather boy who cried "wolf" did so once too often. And the majority of Houstonians simply ignored the risk. And when the weather wolf finally did show up 7 million plus Houstonians never saw it pounce. And as the weather wolf pounced it howled, "Gotcha Bitch"!!!

Few thought that Houston would be turned into the Bay of Bangladesh. The rains slammed into Houston like the torrent of Noah, and within hours my entire neighborhood was cut off. Before the night was over water was pouring into the first floor of my house --- a very large, old, brick and stone, well built house that had never been flooded before... ever!

I was at the Grand Canyon during the entire time. It was my boys and a house full of their friends that lived upstairs during and after the disaster. The individuals in my house were the ONLY people in the entire neighborhood who were not rescued by National Guard. For three days the National Guard would swing by my house in a motorboat and inquire about the health and welfare of everybody. The Guard would ask if they could evacuate anybody. "No", was the reply. Nobody in my house needed the grid, food, water or a place to ****... In fact, everyone looks back on the event as training for the day when a really serious SHTF event happens....

Good luck in the Panhandle, and I mean it when I say that I hope Michael is nothing more that the weather boy crying, "Wolf"!

Tickerguy
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@Budgetracer -- Yep. That's about what I'm seeing. I have my corrugrated stuff up because if it doesn't go right someone's boat might end up in my living room otherwise. But the rest of the house? Just two panels up, and only due to missile risk from east winds. The rest? Nope. It simply won't be bad enough.

Now Ivan was another matter. That had real no-bull**** triple-digit sustained winds with gusts 10-20mph above sustained, and it sucked. But we didn't get wrecked.

This one? Surge is the big issue around Appalachicola; ~6-10' of it if they catch it just wrong. 6' wouldn't shock me at all which is going to put a lot of **** underwater. 10' is possible, but not likely. 10' will **** you HARD if you're only 5' above MSL!

100+mph SUSTAINED winds? In a very small area where the immediate center goes in, maybe. Widespread? No. 50+ sustained over a fairly decent (~40mi diameter) area? Sure. I buy that, and sustained tropical storm force over 100m diameter.

But that's not a catastrophe by any means.

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Ckaminski
Posts: 4919
Incept: 2011-04-08

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Quote:
But "They" always seem to go overboard in how dire things could be.


Yup. In the Northeast we pretty much have none of this nastiness. We don't have much wildlife that can kill you if you're smart. No threat of rattlesnakes in the grass, etc.

But the past three or four years the Winter Superstorm bull**** has just gone off the rails.

Governor Deval Patrick threatening to fine/jail anyone "not essential" caught out on the roads, etc. They need the drama. it's not enough to just be objective anymore, there always has to be suffering in the name of "human interest".

It's the #1 reason I don't watch the news. I thank the people who can tolerate the **** and give me the cliff notes.
Redjack
Posts: 97
Incept: 2018-01-29

Iowa
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Ckaminski

When Snowstorm Sandy hit New York, one of my friends flew her granddaughter and her husband out to Iowa.

When we got a nice blizzard, nothing special but one you have to dig out from, the grand daughter couldn't understand why it wasn't on the news wall to wall.
My friend looked at her and said "In Iowa, we are not pu$$ies".

Pastor had coffee shoot out of his nose at that.
Thorvold
Posts: 237
Incept: 2013-09-12

NY
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The Weather Channel should be better prepared for this one. They can pick more secluded areas to broadcast from so that they don't again show one of their staff members fighting to keep his feet while folks in the background walk calmly by.
Tickerguy
Posts: 154622
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smiley

Yeah, I suspect so....

I expect some real issues over by Panama City but I just caught NOAA fudging the sustained windspeed on a buoy -- claiming a full 23% more than was actually recorded!

They hit the gust number (72mph) bang-on, but that's barely hurricane force.

If that's indicative of the truth about this thing it'll be a mess but nowhere near the catastrophe being forecast.

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Dji
Posts: 1329
Incept: 2009-04-21

Ponzi world 3rd rock from the sun
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Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Noaa buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of 63 mph (101 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h).

CAT 3? OK

Hurry Karl shoot Looty and steal his beer you might need itsmiley

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Tickerguy
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Heh nobody will care if I shoot lootie right? smiley

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Ckaminski
Posts: 4919
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Beignet
Posts: 2002
Incept: 2008-05-16

O-Town
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Just returned from destin picking up my 77 year old mom who lives alone. 13 hours drive time in two days. Plus had to pick up old lady clutter on the back porch.

Noticed various county sheriff vehicles and boats, state troopers, and a lot of electrical bucket trucks on I10 and I75.

My good friend was a neighbor to a well known meteorologist here in orlando. Walking their dogs once, he told her a lot of hurricane news is hype.


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Wifi
Posts: 750
Incept: 2013-02-13

Seagrove Beach
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Modeling data is taking it further East for landfall. They are claiming Cat4 at landfall, and currently a CAT 3, the buoy data says otherwise, someone is lying, ratings = revenue.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=30.5;-86.2;5....

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Hurricane Evacuation Plan
1.Grab Beer
2.Run Like Hell

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Tickerguy
Posts: 154622
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Buoy data doesn't even support a CAT 1!

Now with that said -- the appearance does support a small-core, Cat1-style storm. But 3+? Me thinks not. A Cat 4 impact will NOT leave anything to the imagination; it will look like Perdido did after Ivan -- pretty much EVERYTHING gone wherever it makes landfall.

We got a SOLID 3 here from Ivan at my house and it was a STRONG 3 or perhaps a Weak 4 at Perdido where the eyewall went in. There was almost NOTHING left right on the beach and a few miles east it wrecked BOTH the I-10 bridge AND the 98 bridge into Pensacola, lifting sections of the decking and dumping them into the water.

Yeah. If it's ANYTHING like that it will be INSTANTLY apparent from the damage images after it's gone. My money is on "no ****ing way" and I just got back from drinking beer in Niceville where it's not even BREEZY yet.

I ain't buying the bull**** NHC is selling.

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Mangymutt
Posts: 681
Incept: 2015-05-03

Vancouver WA
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Karl at 9:55 "I DO have the wood"

Who needs the Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders when you got the beer, ice and wood. Those are all the things you need to make Christi Ford happy. smiley
Tickerguy
Posts: 154622
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Well, the wood without someone to use it on.... smiley

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Mangymutt
Posts: 681
Incept: 2015-05-03

Vancouver WA
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"Heh nobody will care if I shoot lootie right?"

Oh I think there will be a LOT of people who will care if you shoot lootie. But they will care because you made the world a better place.

Up this way the ANTIFA idiots were in the streets of downtown Portland this weekend, they were stopping and directing traffic, call motorists names and hitting cars that did not comply with their demands with their hands and batons.

One person filled out a damage report for $3000 worth of damage to his car.

The police you ask? You want to know what the police did?

They sat back and allowed the whole thing to take place.

I have NO reason to go downtown Portland, but I would have a difficult time not defending my property and well being from a bunch of thugs as the po-po sat back watching and eating their donuts.

So yes PLEASE shoot lootie, if you do I will pay to have his/her head mounted on a plaque so you can hang it in your living room.

smileyHurricane is a coming. smiley Lootie shows up smileyKarl gives Lootie all the respect he/she deserves. smiley People celebrate.

See we would care :)
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