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2018-02-09 13:59 by Karl Denninger
in Market Musings , 208 references Ignore this thread
[Comments enabled]

The 200MA and oversold indicator I watch, which I warned about here, appears to be legitimately in play.

That's quite a bounce off the low.  There will probably be some fade off that, but don't be surprised if we close green today.

Lots of people rolled down PUTs in the NDX in particular.  If you did that this morning after the fall started you may be in for a very rude surprise.

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Posts: 4330
Incept: 2007-12-11

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You had to be Frosty the Iceman today if at all. Sold the Naz via q puts on the open and got out quick and nicely.

Thx for the commentary the past few days.

Long Vaseline....

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I was not even SLIGHTLY surprised by today's price action. In fact, totally expected.

I bet it calms down some next week now too... but beware, this is very likely to be short-lived (weeks to months) before things get REALLY interesting.

Nobody's talking about what got blown up, other than XIV. I assure you -- a fairly material number of things DID get blown up, and it'll get real when they can't hide it any more.

Winding it down.

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how do they hide it? cash flow shell games?
flat out accounting fraud?

The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
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Ktrosper: You know how the market traded this week, right?...

They didn't hide it very well. :P

It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
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Like Quik49, I've taken the same approach three times this week. If you look for the footprint of all major moves, they will exhibit the same characteristic and that is a move thru the 50 ma first, the 200 ma second, followed by a retrace to usually a common fib (38, 50, 62, 78). Once the initial low (or high in uptrend reversals) is taken out, then it's game on. If the existing high (or low) is exceeded, then it's just a continuation of an existing higher time-frame trend.

I haven't checked this as thoroughly as I will later, but I did see the footprint in the ESH18 after the initial drop and stop. What I don't know yet is if yesterday's beat-down prior to the Plunge Protection Team rescue took out the initial low or not, I suspect it did. I believe the more meaningful analysis will come from examining the $SPX.

These retracement rallies are needed in order to keep the sheeple in the game while the big boys (think Fed, SNB, ECB, BoJ, et. al.) cash out.


Trust but verify except if the government is involved then just verify.
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