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Tickerguy
Posts: 150720
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Not once the booster burns out.

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Winding it down.
Whitehat
Posts: 192
Incept: 2017-06-27

New York City
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the only way that the norks are going to launch a strike is if they are suicidal and/or nuts. the entire world community would totally back us in any action which would probably be non-nuclear because we can destroy them conventionally without any issue. China fears us being given a reason the do this. China relies upon the norks as a buffer against sharing a border with a country that is part of the western economy and us. we are going to always be hypocritical and ensure that only a few countries have nukes and the world powers agree with this situation even if they will not say it publicly. China is probably working behind the scenes to make sure that such an attack never happens as they are more nervous than we are if we are forced to fight back. that places our control right on their border. consequently we are not in the least way aware of what is going on behind the scenes.

the USA might benefit from experiencing what most of the western world did in the twentieth century and most of the third world experiences now. the lack of home soil vulnerability has been a curse. we ended our great depression and came out on top of the world industrialization while competition was rebuilding. this contributed to our consumerist attitudes. these attitudes give us a population unwilling to learn and be a part of the solutions discussed here. even though an attack will be devastating and the loss of life and economic activity unimaginable, it might be just what we need to get our priorities in order. thus, it will never be allowed to happen.

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There are two ways to be rich: One is by acquiring much, and the other is by desiring little.
Chicago11
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Chicago, Illinois, USA
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It will be very difficult for Trump (or any President, for that matter) to explain why he let Kim Jong-un take the first shot at either the United States or South Korea, given that the Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of Korea is in effect.
Quik49
Posts: 4224
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My folks are in Hawaii and just sent me a text that they had the "air raid" sirens go off.... said it was a bit disturbing


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Long Vaseline....

Tickerguy
Posts: 150720
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Quote:
It will be very difficult for Trump (or any President, for that matter) to explain why he let Kim Jong-un take the first shot at either the United States or South Korea, given that the Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of Korea is in effect.

Too late for that now.

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Winding it down.
Beango
Posts: 736
Incept: 2009-06-05

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Quote:
while we're not certain they can launch something and have it survive re-entry a "can't be sure" is a rather poor thing to rely on when we're talking ICBMs and nuclear warheads.

Yeah, I've been wondering if that is the breaking point (assuming one even exists for US leadership). If they definitively solve re-entry, ****...
Ckaminski
Posts: 4317
Incept: 2011-04-08

Mass-Hole!
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Quote:
mad man as Kim


I'm not so quick to judge. Evil, yes. Mad? I have my doubts. All signs so far point to him being a rational actor.

A rational actor is not going to try for a first strike. What he's saying is if you decide to Saddam him, at least one major city on planet earth is going to be vaporized.

As insurance against assassination, that's pretty sane. :-/
Gianmarko
Posts: 44
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Bern, Switzerland
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i still need to understand why the USA, or better, the US government sees NK as a threat? its a small poor country on the other side of the planet. i can actually imagine that NK has more reason to believe that USA is a threat to them .

NK is no threat to anyone except themselves.

i very much doubt they would want to use the few nukes and few ICBM they can manage to put together in order to then be wiped out from the face of the planet by the inevitable, massive counterstrike.

lets be very clear here. a technology can't be erased from collective memory, and any attempt to stop people from using a certain technology is going to fail.

any government and probably even a number private enterprises have enough money and skills to put together a functioning nuke.

also, the argument that "you cant allow madmen to have weapons" is very similar to what i hear from the antigun ppl regarding people having guns. does US government have the right to decide what country X can own and do, when i believe that the USG doesnt have such right over any of its citizens?

USA lost the monopoly over nukes decades ago and there is no going back. they must learn to live in this world.

Eleua
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Quote:
My folks are in Hawaii and just sent me a text that they had the "air raid" sirens go off.... said it was a bit disturbing


Was this siren on Friday, Dec 1st, by chance? Was it at 1145am?

This happens EVERY first day of the month in Hawaii, and has been so for years. It's a warning test. Tsunamis are the biggest concern.


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"My object in life is to dethrone God and destroy capitalism." - Karl Marx
"Destroy the family, you destroy the country." - Lenin
"Education is a weapon whose effects depend on who holds it in his hands and at whom it is aimed." - Stalin

Asimov
Posts: 109569
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Quote:
any government and probably even a number private enterprises have enough money and skills to put together a functioning nuke.


It's much easier than that. The only difficult part of making one is obtaining the enriched uranium. The next hardest things are the ability to machine it, a good bit of C4 and a large gun barrel. Given those things, you can put one together in your garage. It's not going to be clean or efficient, but it'll still make one hell of a boom.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Ckaminski
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Quote:
This happens EVERY first day of the month in Hawaii, and has been so for years. It's a warning test. Tsunamis are the biggest concern.


The town of Worcester, MA used to run theirs off every couple months in the 80's, and I lived 15+ miles away from it at the time. If the wind was blowing right, I could hear it. The 80's was an awesome time - the specter of megadeath everywhere.

Imagine my surprise to be sitting on Maui outside of Bad Ass Coffee in Kihei on a warm October morning in 2006 and hear that thing go off. I've never quite felt the flight-or-fight response like I did that morning. I knew instinctively what it was, and what it's true purpose was for, and I looked hesitatingly up the mountain wondering if I should start heading inland. The natives looked calm and peaceful, so I finished my awesome brew and proceeded to get a sunburn.

Hawaii is awesome.
Baydog
Posts: 36
Incept: 2008-01-11

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Nuclear proliferation is a threat to the United States because it limits it conventional military ability to regime change countries such as Iraq, Libya, etc. All the massive US military defense budgets spent for conventional forces basically becomes useless if all of the world's nations join the nuclear weapons club.
Quik49
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Eluea

It was a nuke teat siren....first time they have done that since WW2.

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Long Vaseline....

Marc2mrkt
Posts: 512
Incept: 2008-04-12

Taipei
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Found an interesting thread on twitter just now (from @ektrit). Basically some people are theorizing the PLA and us.mil will work together to disarm Kim. (read from bottom up....I skipped a few non-related posts)

Quote:

@Halsrethink
11h11 hours ago
Correction: conflict with DPRK might be short duration, with far higher speed and intensity than seen historically, not a pronlonged war as has been past experience

@Halsrethink
Retweeted Charles Grant
Your assessment an intensive militant conflict wit DPRK may not be far off, but few, even at high levels aware 1)Chinese PLA may assist and 2)conlict may ne be war as eo knew it in past, but rather high speed, high insitiy

@CER_Grant
My main takeaway from 3 days of meetings in Washington, incl senior officials: war between US and N Korea is much closer than many people realise. Officials think deterrence unlikely to work v a madman. Unless sanctions change N Korea's behaviour, US cd start a pre-emptive war.


@Miche1T
An easy calculation PRC will do an awful lot to keep Japan, South Korea & Taiwan from going nuclear. Nuclear DPRK forces that.

@Tshort63
If China wants a solid say in what happens on their border (larger concern than DPRKKJU) they throw their lot in with the US. They will be on the train before it leaves the station.

@Halsrethink
Retweeted Song Mun
Yours is a common opinion. Much going on not in open news.

@SongMun67
Chinese don't like DPRK, but don't like US policy more. Why would they try to help US? Making the war costing US more is the best result for them. So IMO they wouldn't help US, wouldn't send 1 Mill of "volunteers" too, but would help DPRK intelligence to some limited extent

@Halsrethink
Retweeted Pippa Malmgren
Bingo!

@DrPippaM
Watch US military drills around the Korean Peninsula. Look for signs that the US is practising w the Chinese. Whats coming will be a Chinese-led joint effort.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia....

@DrPippaM
Id bet that China is already infiltrating the N Korean peninsula.

@Halsrethink
Assist by ground &/or personal intervention to "neutralize" Pyongyang

@ASkupp
Dr. M: assist whom?
Tat668
Posts: 2838
Incept: 2007-09-09
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I love armchair sailors, they can transverse the universe and all over the worlds in any ways and means that they fancy, without the challenges of technicalities, without the disruptions of washed out roads, with 24/7 sunshine and fair winds.

Have anyone able to make a clear and concise calculation of deaths and the amount of destructions, or able to make a definitive estimation of the maximum damage when all nuclear weapon capable countries detonate all of the existing nuclear devices? New generation, new wars, let the game begin, again!

Going to look of a good place to raise some chicken and goats. Stocking up heavy metal and dry powder, learning to hit a target with a sling shot; lots to do and lots of fun doing them.

Don't forget to live, today, everyday! The actors are all up on the global stage, let them act, let's watch the show with a clear mind.

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"This marks the beginning of the end."- Barack Obama 2-26-09
Tickerguy
Posts: 150720
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smiley

Yep. I love the peeps who think this thing is "easy", "neat", or they can put a boundary on it.

No, no and no. Who remembers Carter's attempted rescue in Iran? It went sideways, badly, with a good part of it just being bad luck and another part being weather.

I figure an attempt to "get" Kim via some sort of precision operation has maybe a 75% chance of success. The problem is that I don't think ANYONE can quantify what happens WHETHER SUCCESS OCCURS OR NOT! In other words it's not so simple as "25% chance Seoul gets blasted with artillery"; it MIGHT be "75% chance that following Kim getting a cruise missile up his ******* ONE OR MORE OF THE REMAINING GENERALS HAVE A KEY TO THE LOCK THAT LAUNCHES A NUCLEAR-TIPPED MISSILE AT TOKYO."

I have no ****ing idea what the boundary conditions are once first contact is made in a kinetic operation (whether "small-scale, CIA-type wet job" or large-scale, "blast-em" style.) There are a lot of people who THINK they do have such a handle on boundary conditions but my opinion is that they're been smoking something that's illegal in Colorado, not a bit of benign bud.

That doesn't change the calculus on this. Either the US and a handful of nations have the right to come up with a list of countries that can possess nuclear arms or we don't. If we do then we and those other nations have to be prepared to ENFORCE THAT LIST and take the cost of doing so, which MIGHT, especially when you **** off for 30+ years and don't do your job, include getting one or more of your cities reduced to ash.

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Winding it down.

Quik49
Posts: 4224
Incept: 2007-12-11

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yeah, operation Barbarossa worked out so well for the Germans...all tidy and on track.....until.....

Midway worked out so well for the Japanese...until....

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Long Vaseline....

Whitehat
Posts: 192
Incept: 2017-06-27

New York City
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@Tickerguy,

Karl, you are so right. In addition most do not anticipate the chaos and disorder that will be caused when a heavily authoritarian society has its brain cut out. Their leader also exists in close proximity to higher levels of the chain of command who could also be sanctioned in an attempt for many reasons including the anticipated. The remaining leadership might not have a means to function in such a society. All assassinations of leaders involve a succession plan by the acting state. When have we last succeeded in this? A chaotic armed forces might have a suicide plan in place. They are acculturated to an apocalyptic leader's vision and a culture of personal and collective sacrifice. Additionally the loss of purpose might be too much to accept along with the unknowns of an uncontrolled existence. This is partially a cult and members of these often prefer suicide to the absence of their leader.

In summary our intelligence agency needs to brief the President as to what measures the norks have put in place for such a sanction of their leadership. This will determine everything.

This is so serious that even though I believe that we will never do it, the logic needs to be part of the public debate. I am considering options to open this discussion publicly.


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There are two ways to be rich: One is by acquiring much, and the other is by desiring little.
Tickerguy
Posts: 150720
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Oh I think there's a clean argument that we DO need to do it, and do it NOW.

And yeah, it's gonna suck. It might suck extraordinarily badly. That something is going to suck doesn't mean we can ignore it. There are plenty of things that have to be done despite them sucking, and the reason you must act is that you when you analyze it you conclude that NOT acting is going to suck WORSE.

And it's not really so much about them as it is about the fact that while the Norks are bad news for anyone in the vicinity there are LOTS of regimes that are bad news. And again, this comes down to first principles; either we have the authority ("right", if you want to call it that) to do something about that or we don't. It's binary, the problem has and will continue to spread, and EVENTUALLY it's going to wind up somewhere that's close enough to the United States that it becomes intolerable (e.g. Cuba, Venezuela, etc.)

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Winding it down.

Eleua
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Question for anyone:

In 1962, when the POTUS took us to the brink of WW3 and annihilation, because the Soviet Union was putting missiles in Cuba, that's the stuff of heroic ledgend.

In 2017, when the POTUS is maneuvering to take action to keep, yet another unstable regime from getting the ability to carry through on their unending threat torrent of 65 years, he is out of his mind and insane.

Sometimes the world isn't neatly packaged with 35% annual returns on stock and real estate portfolios. Sometimes, adults need to step up. They did in 1962.

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http://clearcutbainbridge.blogspot.com/?....
"My object in life is to dethrone God and destroy capitalism." - Karl Marx
"Destroy the family, you destroy the country." - Lenin
"Education is a weapon whose effects depend on who holds it in his hands and at whom it is aimed." - Stalin
Whitehat
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Karl, I agree that we need to do this NOW for these and many other reasons. The important takeaway is that it will be at a minimum a, "you break it; you bought it," type situation. We will have to accept that this decapitation will have issues to be addressed. This will require us to manage the country for the long foreseeable future in concert with other "concerned" parties. It could be messy with SK at the border and its connection to the world economy, however as stated, sometimes consequences of action are better than those of inaction.

My personal issue is the idealistic notion that we and the other superpowers should not be in this role. Yes, I would prefer that we only act when attacked which would have eliminated our contribution and entanglements in much of the world wars. We also have to return to the nuclear stance of launch on warning which Clinton steered us away from in favor of launch on successful strike. This means that we are in the situation where our homeland might be successfully attacked, however any little country that does this can only successfully damage one area before it no longer exists. Consequently other wacko dictators will be like the man with the fancy car that lives in the garage and only goes out to be waxed and displayed in parades. The notion that we are not entirely safe will actually have a positive effect on the population and might actually end the social and economic hegemony that the coastal markets have when their real estate is not the most valuable.

While this sounds sick, by us the US with the participation and tacit approval of the other first world countries have become a type of world government. The smaller countries are only partially autonomous and the first world really runs the globe. This is all well and good until one realizes that we bear the cost of this which some Trumpers seem to notice while other countries deficit spend for the betterment of their citizenry. We also embarked on a mission after the second world war to modernize smaller countries using the British concept that they would become more civilized through the development of a middle-class and industry. This has worked to an extent, however it costs us twice in that we provide the muscle at the expense of our infrastructure and export our industry. To this day countries such as SK still have their disabled children's families immigrate to USA since we have much greater resources for them on our tab of course. I have been there. It is a very advanced civilization in many regards, more than us.

Yes, we must do this, however it still locks us into the struggle with other superpowers over who has the dominant role. Ideally, the USA was never supposed to be in this situation by design. What a tangled web we weave.

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There are two ways to be rich: One is by acquiring much, and the other is by desiring little.
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