Time's Up On The Norks
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
2017-12-01 07:00 by Karl Denninger
in Foreign Policy , 186 references Ignore this thread
Time's Up On The Norks
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Yes, I know the problem is difficult.

I know there are no good answers.

I know that any military solution is not only fraught with risks, but is likely to result in tens of thousands of casualties and might lead to nuclear fireballs.

Nonetheless we must cut the crap.  Either North Korea (and by extension every other nation) has the right to possess nuclear weapons or it does not.

Either we and other nations have the right to determine who can "join" the nuclear club or we do not.

It's binary, when you get down to it.

Nobody wants to take it on in this regard, but we must.  We must because the same situation applies today to Iran.  Tomorrow it will be Sudan or for that matter Venezuela.  The principles are the same; either a sovereign nation has the right to possess any technologically-possible means of defense and offense within its military or it is not a sovereign nation with the right of self-determination.

This a pock-marked and ugly road, yet one we have steadfastly refused to travel since the US and then the USSR both detonated dozens of nuclear bombs and flew dozens of ICBMs in test.  France, Great Britain and others followed.  China stole warhead designs and technology from the US and then Bill Clinton gave them even more in their alleged "civilian" purchase of radar technology which our state department knew had dual use, allowing them to take what was a "city destroyer" (accurate within a few miles) and turn it into a nuclear bunker-buster (accurate to within a few feet.)

In exchange for China's theft and deception we gave them wide-open access to our markets and worse, looked the other way while they stole trillions worth of intellectual property in the years that followed -- theft that continues without consequence to them to this very day.

Never mind Gadaffi, who did accede to US demands regarding weapons and then was sodomized and killed when we decided we didn't like him anyway.

So either blow Mr. Rocketman to Hell right here and now or shut the **** up Mr. President when it comes to North Korea.

You know good and ******n well that I'm right about all of the above and that all of it, especially the Chinese part, came about because your predecessors and our Congress are all spineless pussies who can't be bothered with anything called "national security" and haven't been since Pearl Harbor.

Stealing a nuclear warhead's design, which is exactly what the Chinese did, would have led them to be instantly and permanently barred from trade if anyone in our government gave a **** about national security.  Clearly we didn't, and clearly we don't.  You, Mr. President, are just as dickless as your predecessors in this regard.  You're far more concerned about "cheap chineesium goods" than you are about whether or not our military assets can be reduced to ash by said Chinese.

North Korea has now fired a  missile that can hit damn near anything north of the Equator.  That includes any city in the United States.  May I remind you that since China has refused to cut them off they probably have the Loral technology that the Clinton Administration sold in return for $500,000 in illegal campaign donations.

Not only did nobody ever go to jail in our government for that (most-especially Herr Clinton) there has never been any shutdown of Chinese trade and banking with the US either, including incinerating their Treasury holdings -- all of which we could have done in response.

Not that it really matters whether they have that radar technology when it comes to hitting cities; it's only important if you need to blow up a bunker, where missing by a mile means you make a lot of noise and blow fallout all over the place but the bunker survives.  Washington DC, on the other hand.....

To those who are "Trumpers", you're out of your ****ing mind.  What will the DOW trade at if DC glows in the dark?  Or Chicago?  Or New York?  Or Atlanta?  Or San Francisco?

Can't happen eh?  Oh yes it can -- right here, right now.  That launch make it quite-clear that while we're not certain they can launch something and have it survive re-entry a "can't be sure" is a rather poor thing to rely on when we're talking ICBMs and nuclear warheads.

Make up your mind folks -- either every nation has the right to these weapons or not.  If so, then shut the **** up when both Iran and Venezuela build them, along with every third-world hellhole you can find.

Because they will.

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Curbyourrisk
Posts: 4026
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So, watching the boob tube the other day cover that last launch..and all the boobs talking made it clear that it was an unarmed missile and it wasn't a big deal.

So.... how does one know if the missile is armed or not? Can one tell by the trajectory? Or do we simply wait for it to land to determine if it is armed (very unfortunate for those in the hot-zone). At what point, must we act and shoot down - even an unarmed projectile?

I certainly would not accept any job relocations from my company right now to South Korea or Japan, hell not even Hawaii right now

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Time is up.

I hate to burst your bubble, but there is no Santa Claus, the tooth fairy does not exist and American justice does not involve the courts.
Tickerguy
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It's not as simple as people think.

Rockets have the same basic issue as an aircraft when it comes to CG. If it's too far aft the rocket is unstable (it doesn't fly, it tumbles.) As the propellant in a liquid fuel rocket burns the CG moves aft -- a lot (for a solid-fuel rocket this is not as true depending on the design of the grain.)

Thus even if the payload is "inert" (bricks, etc) the weight and balance has to be right. If the payload is bricks or a nuke, well, you find out on the other end.

As a result if the trajectory computes out to being aimed at something you care about you try to kill it before it can do that. If it's MIRV-capable you definitely want to get it in mid-flight before it separates, because it's a hell of a lot easier to hit one thing than a bunch of them.

But those who claim we can shoot these things down are basically asserting that something we've never done in anger will work. We don't know that, and our "synthetic tests" have both been synthetic and 'crippled' against what a real incoming missile (or ten) would actually look like both in trajectory and the countermeasures it might (would!) use. Remember, nobody has actually fired an ICBM in anger....... ever.

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Winding it down.
Gianmarko
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Bern, Switzerland
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considering what happened to those who gave up on the nukes, i very much doubt rocketman will even give up his

to be perfectly honest, if a certain government ceased a certain regime change policy towards a number of foreign nations, we would probably see a lot less nukes around.
after all, what could possibly do with a nuke or two a derelict and hopeless country like north korea? obviously, the NK regime sees them as a life insurance.

regarding the alleged capability of being able to shoot down an ICBM, im unconvinced. it looks like something really, really hard to do.




Tickerguy
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It is hard to do, and while we've done it in "tests" everyone who is any sort of historian at all knows the story of the WWII US torpedoes early in the war in the Pacific.

Our "tested" torpedoes did not explode if they hit head-on. A glancing impact and they did. Several submarine captains watched in disbelief through their periscopes as their shots HIT THE ENEMY SHIP and did not go "boom" and who knows how many of those skippers got depth-charged to death as a result of "tested" torpedoes that didn't work. If you're wrong about the efficacy of an ICBM interceptor the way you find out is when a half-dozen or more of your cities are reduced to ash, and who knows if there's enough time at that point to figure out what went wrong and fix it.....

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Keenan
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Western PA
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regarding the alleged capability of being able to shoot down an ICBM, im unconvinced. it looks like something really, really hard to do.

This piece provides some insights into the challenges:
http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/687....
Quik49
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Spot on.
I also fear that one of these launches is going to go haywire and accidentally land on Japan.... things will get pretty hot nuke or no nuke

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Long Vaseline....

Quik49
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Regarding those torpedo's, I was reading on a WW2 blog I follow daily that they also had issues with depth early on....kind of a big deal when one is fighting for ones life and your a sitting duck

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Long Vaseline....

Tickerguy
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Yep. When you identify a ship as an enemy destroyer and you know it's approximate draft it's kinda important that your torpedo runs either right under it (if it's proximity fused and intended to break its keel when it explodes under it) or hits the hull. If it runs harmlessly underneath the ship and doesn't explode not only do you miss but the trail it leaves in the water tells the lookouts on the destroyer exactly where it came from!

Sucks to be you if that happens....

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Payup
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Wouldn't be surprised if Trump froze assets or implements (with China) sanctions on NK's oil next week (aka WAR!), as he suggested sanctions were imminent on 11/27. The US ambassador to China is demanding it, or "we can take the oil situation into our own hands."

Instead, Matt Lauer is the front page news. Japan and WWII, here we go again. More globalist theatre IMO. Nothing is as it appears.
Quik49
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Know your ammunition....speaking of which...reminder to play with some "little friends" today

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Long Vaseline....

Zappafan
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What is the global economic affect of turning Seoul, and possibly several other major cities in S. Korea and Japan into Aleppo or Raqqa (cities in Syria that were reduced to rubble?)

I don't have the answer to that question, but I suspect that the "powers that be" know, and that will drive the answer to the next question which is will we have the cajones to do what is needed to end North Korea's nuclear program?


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Tickerguy
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Taking any material percentage of South Korean economic output offline, given where it's centered (electronics, high-tech components, etc) would be a monstrous rat**** in terms of the global economy.

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Winding it down.
Flappingeagle
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Quote:
Never mind Gadaffi, who did accede to US demands regarding weapons and then was sodomized and killed when we decided we didn't like him anyway.


The US Government may be the least trustable government in the whole world. Everyone knows that both in the US ( meaning US citizens who get lied to constantly) and on the outside. The talking heads in the media know it as well they just pretend it isn't so and that "we would open a dialogue" which will miraculously cure all ills.

NK to me was 100% logical when they developed short-range nuclear capable missiles. I don't know if they've overplayed their hand with the long-range ones or not.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Zappafan
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Yup, and given how leveraged everything is now in the tech space, it might just expose the ponzi financing schemes being relied on by the likes of Scamazon and others.

Can you say "it's not contained!" kiddos?

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Ich bin der Tankendau!
Flappingeagle
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Quote:
Taking any material percentage of South Korean economic output offline, given where it's centered (electronics, high-tech components, etc) would be a monstrous rat**** in terms of the global economy.


Ah yes, the miracle of the global supply chain. A ****-load plus some more of the world's supply-chains make a least one stop in SK. What Karl states in the above quote would probably collapse the global banking system since that system is totally based on cash-flow and the belief that people will pay...

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Beango
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Is it feasible to "knock" the ICMB's out of the sky at launch time using short range tactical nukes from the NK coast? The idea being you don't need to hit the missile dead on, just get close enough to **** it up.
Zappafan
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Atlanta
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Given the reality that North Korea is now a de-facto nuclear power, any economic analysis also has to take into consideration the possibility that the list of cities turned into rubble includes not just Seoul but LA, Chicago, or (we can dream) DC.

Even a "miss" that doesn't directly hit a large US population center, but detonates and spreads fallout downwind, would probably be catastrophic to the US economy in terms of psychological and physical effects. For example, a "miss" that lands in Alabama but spreads deadly fallout all over GA and Northern FL would have quite a buzzkill effect on the local economies of those regions.

You can kiss the housing and tourist markets in those areas goodbye, for starters.

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Ich bin der Tankendau!
Tarmoney
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Karl- I know you've written on the potential of an whether an aerial nuke detonation would cause enough of an EMP to knock out our grid, electronics, etc. and as I recall, _I think_ your position is it is a lot harder to inflict the kind of damage than one might think. I've read elsewhere that with a large enough payload at sufficient altitude (250-300 mi) the effects of the different pulse types E1-3 can be profound. Just reading about Starfish Prime on Wikipedia is enough to make me queasy. Anyway I'm in no position to judge either way but I'm wondering whether your position is any different with regard to NK given the magnitude of their recent nuke tests. My worry is that reentry may not even be something that needs to be achieved. Given our reliance on everything electronic, even limited damage might be enough to cause real problems here.

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Tickerguy
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Not really, no.

Would a high-altitude detonation cause some problems? Probably. Would it be a "lights out" sort of event? No. Second, it's NOT without warning either; a launch is certainly something we will detect, so there WILL be warning -- not a huge amount of warning, but SOME, and arguably enough time to take fairly material mitigating actions.

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Winding it down.
Gianmarko
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an EMP strike requires a pretty large and reliable thermonuclear device and im not so sure that the NK can build such device and miniaturize it enough to deliver it over USA
i also agree with Tickerguy that the real effect would be not as dramatic as some say, and a lot depends on the area hit and how the magnetic lines are in the area.

after all, when high altitude thermonucleat tests were executed such dramatic effects were not really observed

Starfish prme was a pretty large device, very unlikely NK has such device and is able to deliver it on an ICBM

Elkad
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If it's a single launch from a nation that has barely figured out ICBMs (equivalent to US 1950s tech) , I figure we have at least a 50/50 shot at downing it before detonation.

I don't have any numbers to back that, but our systems do work in controlled tests. I don't think NK currently can do any better than a perfectly straight shot.

Multiple missiles? Multiple RVs? Warheads that dump chaff and maneuver in the air? Warheads that detect incoming kinetic weapons and pre-detonate? (EMP is better than nothing?) Yeah, we'd do poorly. Unless we have some sooper-sekrit beam weapons that can manage hard kills.
Vernonb
Posts: 1928
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East of Sheol
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-all these anti- missile systems.

I see some of these high tech wonders and honestly I wonder (as the ones using lasers and microwaves) can do a damned thing in heavy fog or a heavy rain.

Then we have the systems in high orbit above the planet. What happens if NK launches a missile to essentially throw reflective chaff into that part of the path above the intended trajectory to confuse the systems before launch of the real weapon? Does anyone think they care about further polluting space? Then there is the direct approach just take out the high orbital system to start.

If I am determined to do such a thing then bad weather and a few low tech solutions will go a long way to reduce the threat of these billion dollar toy POS to realize twisted ambitions.

I am no ECM expert but every system has an Achilles' heel and most have low tech Achilles' heels. If the Chinese have stolen these plans they know this. If the Chinese know the weakness then the NKs likely know it too.

Then we have another issue here - collusion. I am sure the Chinese government is working directly with these NK bastards as we well as the Iranians. What makes these experts think China will not provide aid immediately before an attack that might upset our defense systems? Then as always they will pretend to be our friends while trying to STEAL everything in sight.

China has been very aggressive in moving out into international waters lately - ever wonder why? What is it they think they have that makes the US defenses less of a threat?

What I do know is the window is closing to end this threat. The people of NK have a right to their destiny but is it the will of the people or the sole will of a mad man as Kim? If the latter then it is time to dispose of him.

Would be much cleaner to take out this bastard and his inner circle covertly than threaten a war. Trump needs to just shut his mouth and let opportune 'accidents' happen in NK. I'd rather fire a BB gun to end a rabid pest than burn down a forest.

P. Trump Barnum had better learn that this is not about showmanship - it is about effectiveness and he'd better also get it through his head - there is NO ART of the DEAL. As you said - it is a binary choice and conditional clauses only lead to future problems.



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Click
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As far as speculating on EMP damage, nuclear missile damage/ accurateness and can we or can we not intercept an ICBM from NK... as far as all of above issues go .... I'm not taking any chances. I've already surpassed the recommendations of CD from the 1950s and 60s regarding nuclear-war preparedness. And I did this a long time ago. And before I did this my dad did it. To me, it's just common sense. It's a form of insurance. Today, they call it prepping for SHTF. Forty years ago they called it Civil Defense..
Bjonsson
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Quote:
heavy fog or a heavy rain ... reflective chaff

Given that you're looking for a missile, most of the sensors would probably be tracking the infrared signature.

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