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Spanktron9
Posts: 4188
Incept: 2009-03-13

Reality.
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Quote:
The bottom line is that China will ship very attractive electric cars to compete with Tesla and other makers.


They will steal and pirate any and all TSLA product, marketing, and IP.

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"Winter is coming." -Motto of House Stark
"Don't coast through life. Grab it by the hair and **** it half to death." - Jotapay
"Strong people are harder to kill than weak people, and more useful in general" - Mark Rippetoe
"Its like Calvinball."-MarvinMartian
Bkmiller
Posts: 218
Incept: 2008-08-30

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Folks...please...I think most of you here intuitively understand the difference between kW and kWh. (kW = Instantaneous Power vs. kWh = Energy Capacity).

A 600 kW battery that can deliver that rated *power* for 10 minutes is a 100 kWh *capacity* battery.

Ya, Elon is playing games with his numbers, deliberately, IMO.

Having worked in the electric biz for 30+ years, this mis-terminology rubs me wrong. Many people don't get the difference.

I'm just sayin'. Watch out for game playing with the numbers.


Tickerguy
Posts: 150661
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Well, yes.

His 80kwH battery is what's in the Model S now. He claims a 200kwH battery is going in the Roadster. Not a ****ing snowball's chance in hell there was one in the demo unit, as the SIZE and MASS of that bitch will make the car REALLY ****ing heavy, and of course acceleration is directly proportional to the accelerated mass, force being equal.

Never mind the other problem which is that the existing Model S is very fast on a straight pull -- for a little while. But it's HEAVY -- that's a 4600lb car! Further, start hammering it and you run into heating issues within its systems (including the battery) which cause it to cut back. Never mind that if you hammer the **** out of it you'll be lucky to make 100 miles before the battery is dead flat on its ass.

The 911 Carerra is a ~3100lb car. It will SMOKE the Tesla in anything other than a straight line short-distance run, it will do so for longer on a tank of fuel, and you can refill it in 5 minutes.

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Winding it down.
Bkmiller
Posts: 218
Incept: 2008-08-30

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Karl,

Agreed. I know *you* get the math of power vs. energy. :)

No f**kin way there was a 300 kWh battery in the demo car! Like you hinted earlier, it was a high power, low energy, battery configuration. That's the only way to get the claimed acceleration with the torques vs. weight considerations.

My old 914 with an air-cooled engine is probably more energy efficient, source-to-end-use!
Dennisglover
Posts: 904
Incept: 2012-12-05

Huntsville, AL
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Bkmiller--Yes, mis-terminology, mis-direction, or to call it what it likely is, that is to say "lying", rubs me wrong, too.

I was a Navy Electrician's Mate Fireman striker a long time ago. Taking battery readings on USS Amberjack in 1971, I got a nice and much-needed lesson from both an EM1 and an EMCS about the difference between a "zero ground" and a "no ground". (Instructors in EM/A school hadn't got that concept across very well, or I didn't get it well enough. I got it better after that.)

Your arithmetic is immaculate.

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TANSTAAFL
Dennisglover
Posts: 904
Incept: 2012-12-05

Huntsville, AL
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So the Caerra gets the long-haul thing done.

Of course, what we're being told is that the gasoline required for the 911 is more environmentally "unfriendly", you know, not "green" enough.

Horsecrap. If I'm going to make electricity to charge batteries, then I must have an energy source to make that electricity. An awful lot of that energy source is going to be petroleum/fossil fuel based. (OR WORSE--NUKE-U-LAR!)

Again, "Horsecrap."

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TANSTAAFL
Bkmiller
Posts: 218
Incept: 2008-08-30

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Dennisglover - battery systems are an interesting and different animal, especially in higher voltage configurations. IIRC, the military typically uses a ~400 VDC battery config. "No-ground" inadvertently becoming "zero-ground" could be quite painful for the investigating technician, if I understand your terminology correctly!
Spanktron9
Posts: 4188
Incept: 2009-03-13

Reality.
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Hey Guys! Tony Stark...um....I mean Elon Musk is now saying that the new roadster will get rockets and be able to "fly short hops". Order Today!
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/car....

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"Winter is coming." -Motto of House Stark
"Don't coast through life. Grab it by the hair and **** it half to death." - Jotapay
"Strong people are harder to kill than weak people, and more useful in general" - Mark Rippetoe
"Its like Calvinball."-MarvinMartian
Dennisglover
Posts: 904
Incept: 2012-12-05

Huntsville, AL
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Bkmiller---that was precisely the idea ("quite painful") I got from the EM1 and EMSC that day. They weren't looking to hurt me nearly so much as they wanted to help me.

Still, there were four batteries (two each in series, the pair in parallel), and that puts out an awful lot of power at application. Capable (as it shows my former speed estimates to be incorrect) of sending the boat at 18+kt. submerged for a short time.

John Paul Jones said, "Give me a fast ship. For I intend to go in harm's way."

That's Navy, dood.

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TANSTAAFL
Raster
Posts: 2172
Incept: 2007-08-16

Rar!
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Hey KD,

Go set them kids on Quora straight:

https://www.quora.com/Is-Tesla-nearly-ba....

Its not worth it, I know, but Id still love to see it.

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"Bah something 'sploded"
- King Karl, Circa November 8, 2010 CE
Punch_rockgroin
Posts: 2327
Incept: 2008-12-31

Pacific NW USA
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I'll stick with proven technology, like a ground effect hovercraft:


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Put the boots to him. Medium style.
Dennisglover
Posts: 904
Incept: 2012-12-05

Huntsville, AL
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And, Bkmiller:

"No ground" means a complete open from source to ground. No circuit on the supposed path can be trusted to work, and no circuit will work.

"Zero ground" means a complete short-circuit from source to ground. No circuit on the path gets any energy at all, since it's all shorted to ground. In fact, the only circuit is that one from source to ground. "BOOM."

Neither is very helpful. In any case.

Don't want ever to be there again.

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TANSTAAFL
Reluctantdebtor
Posts: 293
Incept: 2010-03-05

ohio
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Eh. My yearly expense for rent, groceries and utilities is $14,389. My 25-year-old Honda continues to percolate reliably with no maintenance. Obamacare has been covering my medical expenses (until Trump kills that, possibly with his "tax plan"). These Tesla cars are like something from an AVENGERS movie. Outer-space weirdness with lots of CG that I somehow cannot replicate at home.
Flyanddive
Posts: 2434
Incept: 2008-10-10

Detroit
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Oh, Fisker is discovering new ways to burn down under water?

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"I've seen people go into real poverty trying to pretend to be rich."
Gianmarko
Posts: 44
Incept: 2013-03-11

Bern, Switzerland
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there are a couple things that really get on my nerves when discussing EV's.
first of all, all numbers and perf specs about EV's are overstated. a swiss magazine recently did a test of 3 EV's on the market, they did a pretty good and objective road test and real life ranges were 40% less of what the manufacturer said.
regarding the battery pak of the new roadster, the model S 85 kWh pack allegedly weight over half metric ton, and contains over 7000 cells. a 200kWh pack therefore would weight 1.2-1.5 metric tons. thats more or less the weight of my italian sportscar.
i use li-ion cells for my projects and i know them pretty well in real use. there is a ton of 'em with different specs and characteristics.
so first of all, the claimed simplicity of EV's (because there are very few parts" is BS. a battery pack is made out of thousands of cells, each one of them with its own balancing, isolating and protecting circuit. cells do fail and therefore you must expect the pack of your car to lose capacity with time and use.
secondly, cells lose capacity every charge-discharge cycle. the deeper the cycle, the higher the capacity loss. cell manufacturers publish this data and it is available online.
so each time you recharge the pack, you lose a little chunk of capacity, and this has a cost i never see published. in my calculations, the cost of this capacity loss in a deep cycle gets close to the cost of the equivalent amount of fuel before taxes. i have seen laptop battery packs that after couple years of light use lost 40-50% of the capacity.
thirdly, recharging the batteries.
lets imagine we have bought one of those shiny, fast roadsters with a 200kWh pack that we need to fully recharge, and lets assume some magician figures out how to build batteries that can be recharged at constant current in 6 minutes, just to use easy round numbers.
you will need a 2 GW (edit: 2MW) charger. thats a LOT of power. charging at 1000 volts, thats 2000 amps.
lemme tell you, i dont want to be nowhere near such operation and a problem in the cables, connectors, batteries, electronics will get you a firework you will remember for life
now, such magic battery could be produced right now utilizing the constant current part of the charging curve of a li-ion cell that can be charged at 2C, it would be heavy and expensive but is perfectly feasible, but the recharging problem is one of the various elephants in the room than everyone is trying to ignore.
i have a diesel car with a 70 liters tank. that, assuming 30% efficiency (which is a pretty realistic value) is the equivalent of a 220 kWh battery pack.
that is what you really need to have a decent range and a practical, usable car.
such battery cannot be recharged in 5 minutes, period.

EV's are an idiotic fad, produce of the sick mind of scammers and clueless central planners.

of course they will, at some stage, mandated, so nuking the economy in a single shot.


Reason: typo
Idiom
Posts: 111
Incept: 2015-02-20

New Zealand
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Anyone want to clue me in on why manufacturing a car with an electric drive chain is apparently so much harder to do that one with a mechanical drive chain?

I thought EV's were supposed to be a lot simpler to build?
Gianmarko
Posts: 44
Incept: 2013-03-11

Bern, Switzerland
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Whitehat said:
"the technology of electric drive and management of propulsion does make a lot of sense in terms of efficiency"

i totally disagree on that.
electric vehicles are not more efficient that ICE vehicles. i will not make complex calculations to demonstrate it. just look at any parking lot.
if that was true, there would be only EV in it.

electric motors are efficient. but electricity does not spring from the ground, must be generated somewhere, and transported to the electric motor. and when that electric motor is moving at high speed on a motorway, things start getting trickier
Whitehat
Posts: 185
Incept: 2017-06-27

New York City
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China can develop an electric car market for a few reasons. It has invested in electrical generation and continues to do so, hydroelectric, nuclear, LFTR's, and conventional. They also have more direct access and source country relations with sources for rare earth metals. We do not have this. They also consider pollution to be a national treasure.

Additionally their power grid is being built out so the load will be considered. There is a tendency to have excess capacity in their major projects. The Chinese are also a controlled and managed society. The range, use and boundaries of personal transportation vehicles has surely been a part of their authoritarian planning. It would not be surprising if there is some mobility restriction baked in from the start in all aspects of the product.

If Americans and Europeans are stupid (that word again) enough to accept this, this is an urban centric planner's dream. A trapped population forced to patronize an urban area and not vote with their feet, commute time or completely dislocate will be a future cash cow for everything that left-wing urban areas tend to force upon their people. Add in the merchant princes who would simply delight in people being less autonomous and you have a major social change, not for the better. This is why battery and self-driving are being pushed together. Personal skills have a shelf-life. Once you give up being personally autonomous for the vehicle being so, you will forget how to be this way. Gradually you will stop pondering your environment as you drive, looking for solutions, becoming more involved in other distractions, even reading. When something makes the decisions for you, you cease to do so for yourself. Battery range, ability to charge and planned routes will start to determine people's lives so subtly that they will not perceive it.

This is what some of us warn about. Sometimes technology as great as it is can cause us to lose some of the aspects of humanity worth conserving.

Calculators in the classroom along with cable television, computerized testing instead of writing, no one can fix anything for themselves, instant answers at people's fingertips. Question is, can we ever go back.

The new rebels might be people who live outside of this new world, perhaps using older stuff and new tech carefully and selectively. the new rebels will win not when they live like people of 40 to 100 years ago, but by having those skills and using the competence that they give to make amazing advances in technology. Then the controlled masses in the urban control systems will be left behind with no skill set to compete which is happening already.

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There are two ways to be rich: One is by acquiring much, and the other is by desiring little.
Dmj625
Posts: 660
Incept: 2010-03-01

New Orleans, LA
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Here is an excellent analysis of the company that examines each product line. It paints a pretty dim picture:

https://................/article/4122890....

Quote:
Since January 2013, Tesla produced 271,131 cars but sold only 254,206 - a delta of 16,925 cars or an astonishing 6.24% of total production. What happened to all those cars? Is Tesla building the largest finished goods inventory in the automotive sector? The worlds largest loaner fleet? Will Tesla be able to sell thousands of inventoried cars with the old exterior design without Autopilot 2.0 or better trim levels, even with a steep markdown? Or will it write them off? A company suffering from unremitting cash burn must convert inventory into sales. If one takes the ASP of around $100,000 from Q3 as a yardstick, Tesla squandered $1.69 billion in unrealised revenue in only four years.

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Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on.or by imbeciles who really mean it. Mark Twain
Flappingeagle
Posts: 2703
Incept: 2011-04-14

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Did the car companies/government/people just give up on fuel-cell cars?

What happened with that great technology that was coming soon almost 15 years ago?

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Wifi
Posts: 623
Incept: 2013-02-13

Seagrove Beach
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inline
Bunch of disbelieverssmiley

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Hurricane Evacuation Plan
1.Grab Beer
2.Run Like Hell
Gianmarko
Posts: 44
Incept: 2013-03-11

Bern, Switzerland
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i meant to write 2 MEGAwatt not 2 GIGA watt

sorry for the mistake
Tickerguy
Posts: 150661
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Quote:
Did the car companies/government/people just give up on fuel-cell cars?

What happened with that great technology that was coming soon almost 15 years ago?

Fuel cells require a hydrogen source. The usual means of obtaining it terrestrially is to put a "reformer" in front of it and feed it natural gas (methane), which is CH4.

Of course then the problem becomes what do you do with the "C"? The answer is you oxidize it (CO2) which of course, well, yeah, the greenies go ape**** when they figure that one out. Oh, and while this sounds grand there is a wee problem with natural gas as a fuel -- it's energy density sucks except at cryogenic temperatures where it can be a liquid, never mind the energy consumed to compress it for storage in a fuel tank. Where you can deal with the tank size and mass (e.g. a truck) it works well for short-haul use (e.g. garbage trucks, etc) but you may as well just burn the natural gas in a conventional engine and be done with it -- it's a hell of a lot cheaper and the end-to-end efficiency is actually HIGHER. Thus you frequently DO see things like a garbage truck or city bus running on CNG.

Workable for fixed power use but then we get down to cost, and both fuel cells and reformers ain't cheap nor do fuel cells do real well with rapidly-varying load requirements.

In other words it was a load of bull**** 15 years ago and still is.

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Winding it down.

Ckaminski
Posts: 4311
Incept: 2011-04-08

Mass-Hole!
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Quote:
"when battery technology improves,"


Folks have been saying this about nuclear fusion for 50 years.

Physics cannot be beat, folks, and betting your future on hopium is stupid.
Flaps10
Posts: 6780
Incept: 2008-10-17

PNW
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Quote:
such battery cannot be recharged in 5 minutes, period.


Sure it can. Just pull up to a diesel pump. Call it a diesel battery. Minds blown everywhere

Quote:
EV's are an idiotic fad, produce of the sick mind of scammers and clueless central planners.

My brothers used to say they had to tie a bone around my neck to get the dog to play with me

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