Ah, The Spanish Government CAN Do Math
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
2017-10-21 16:34 by Karl Denninger
in International , 620 references Ignore this thread
Ah, The Spanish Government CAN Do Math
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All revolutions and secession events are prosecuted by small but real minorities.  In the US Revolution about three percent of the people actually took arms and fought the British.  We won.

Keep that in mind, because Spain is dealing with a secession movement right now, not so much a revolution.  There the numbers are somewhat different -- but not that much.  In the Civil War about 2.5 million out of 18.5 million, or roughly 13% of the population fought on the Union side; on the Confederate side it was in the same general range (accurate records are more-difficult for the Confederacy.)  Most of the Union solders were volunteers.

Of course the secession of the Confederacy failed.

Reality is that you often have plenty of people who are very pissed off one way or another but few who will take arms on either side.  For this reason it's not so simple as to say "you need half."  You don't, in fact, need anywhere near half the population in order to win, but those who choose it must be willing to die for what they believe in.  The exact number is hard to pin down, which makes all such movements, to some degree, a game of poker -- and you never really know if the other side is bluffing.

Spain has figured out (a bit late, I think) that with about 40% of the population of Catalonia voting (after the Spanish government attempted to brutalize or arrest anyone attempting to vote, with some success) and the vast majority of those voting choosing secession there is a real risk that the "success" threshold is within grasp. 

Please do remember that this latest vote is not the first, and attempts to negotiate with Spain's federal side have brought no resolution suitable to both Catalonia and Spain at-large.  What must alarm them greatly is that the percentage margins on these actions at worst is stable and may be growing.

The Spanish government, of course, believes that there simply aren't enough people willing to write the big check -- that is, to vote with things other than ballots, and rather non-peacefully at that.

We're going to find out quite soon, I suspect, whether they're right.

There are eerie echoes of 1776 in here folks.... entreaties, ballots, stomped heads, and then.....

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User Info Ah, The Spanish Government CAN Do Math in forum [Market-Ticker]
Sean
Posts: 2932
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General Strike until the country of Catalonia is official????

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GEN 5:32,GEN 7:6, 6/17/1689, 6/17/1789, 10/13/1917, 10/13/2017 (???)
Dcsleeper
Posts: 376
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Northern VA
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from time to time the tree of liberty must be refreshed with the blood of patriots...
Chaparral
Posts: 287
Incept: 2007-09-11

Los Angeles
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I wonder how the gun smuggling biz is doing over there....

I have a sneaking suspicion that not all firearms purchased stateside are staying on this side of either ocean.
Tickerguy
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A True American Patriot!
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There are plenty of ways to totally rat**** the Spanish government that have nothing to do with firearms.

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Winding it down.
Sean
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Quote:
There are plenty of ways to totally rat**** the Spanish government that have nothing to do with firearms.


Yea, that's why said what I said above.

I think Catalonia "area" provides ...

Quote:
Although it has 16% of the Spanish population, it generates 19% of Spains GDP and 25% of its exports. It



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GEN 5:32,GEN 7:6, 6/17/1689, 6/17/1789, 10/13/1917, 10/13/2017 (???)
Supertruckertom
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USA
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Highway blockades around Madrid would work. Just drop some trailers in the most congested areas.

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Preparing to go Hunting.
Themadhatter
Posts: 5
Incept: 2012-09-10

Arizona
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Something you guys might like to read if you haven't already.

http://www.elnacional.cat/en/editorial/i....
Jfms99
Posts: 219
Incept: 2009-10-06

Msumelle, Ar
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In this mornings newspaper I see where Spain is going to crack down and Strip Catalonia of it's independent autonomy. That will go down well and just continue to fuel the movement to leave. A classic Dumb move on Spain's part.
Bjonsson
Posts: 1053
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Ventura County, California
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Violence alone rarely works in attempting to project sovereignty. You have to win the "narrative" in the eyes of the populace.

There's a reason why the occupation of post war Japan went relatively well (allowing them to keep their "emporer", etc), and the occupation of Vietnam went so poorly. You either have to manage the politics and show that you are the "good guy", or if left with just violence, you'd probably need to completely destroy the place.

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"If you don't have borders... if you don't have laws... you don't have a country."
Idiom
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New Zealand
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Civil War is way more expensive now. Cheaper to cut them loose than to set your nation back 150 years.
Sean
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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-417....

Now we see if they mean it.

A however long it takes general strike is in order here!!!

Quote:
Catalan parliament declares independence from Spain

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GEN 5:32,GEN 7:6, 6/17/1689, 6/17/1789, 10/13/1917, 10/13/2017 (???)
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