God Bless Idiocy
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2017-10-04 10:04 by Karl Denninger
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God Bless Idiocy
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Seriously.  God does sometimes bless us even when we have seen what is unspeakable evil in our midst, and He did this last weekend.

I'm talking about Vegas, of course.

We're learning more but there's much being withheld -- intentionally so.  If you've been paying attention to the "press conferences" you've detected that the LEOs out there are quite-intentionally not telling us more than they are talking about and they're worried about something too.  We'll eventually find out what the "something" is, and I bet we won't like it one bit.

But I want to focus on some facts that ought to give you a great deal of pause before rushing to ban something -- guns, slide-fire stocks, etc being the screamfest targets this time around from certain political factions that always go down this road.

Let me be clear: The lack of such bans saved hundreds of lives.

Yes, I mean that: Hundreds of people are alive today because we did not previously ban such things.

Let me explain.

First, it appears that the rifles were all fitted with bump stocks.  A bump stock is a device that has a spring in it, basically, so that when you use muscle power to "load" the spring the recoil of the weapon causes your finger (which presses the trigger) to move forward and then back again, thus firing the gun rapidly.  It's not a machine gun because your finger presses the trigger once for each round that goes off.  The salient feature focused on is the more-rapid fire, however, the price for such more-rapid fire is much worse accuracy.  In this particular case the lack of accuracy didn't matter because he was shooting into a mass of people roughly the size of a city block, so any round put into a huge area was likely to hit someone.  However, in virtually any other case the use of such a device would lead to a much lower hit rate.  In other words in the general case these devices make a firearm less lethal rather than more-so (only hits count, of course.)

Second, the shooter appears to (from the pictures that have gotten out) chosen very-high-capacity aftermarket magazines.  Many people want to ban such magazines.  That's dumb; these magazines undoubtedly saved many lives in this instance.  Why?  Because they're unreliable, something the shooter obviously didn't know.  It's quite-clear that he never practiced with these magazines or he would have known that they don't work well; they tend to jam a lot, and they did.  This explains the long pauses in his shooting (he apparently tried to clear the jams, failed, and then switched to another gun.)  The shooter's decision to use these unreliable pieces of junk probably saved dozens of lives.  In addition he selected weapons that are, in relative terms, less effective at the long range he was shooting, which further showed that he was both inexperienced and unpracticed.  Are you sure you want to ban things that make a mass-murderer less effective?

Third, this guy undertook a lot of planning.  There are reports the hotel was sold out for weeks prior to the event; that makes sense, as it was literally across the street from the festival.  That in turn means he knew exactly what he intended to do and arranged for that room well in advance.  He booked the room using his girlfriend's name, maybe to prevent the casino's computer from flagging his stay and comping him, as he was a known high-value gambler in Vegas (ed: It has now been reported that the room was comp'd.) Finally, he also placed cameras both in the room and in the hallway so he would know if law enforcement was coming upon his position once he started shooting.

Fourth, this guy was a typical loser gunman.  We know this because when challenged (a cop and security guard came down the hall to try to interdict him fairly early on) he emptied a mag through the door at them, having detected them in the hallway outside.  The guard was shot in the leg but not seriously hurt.  Then the gunman killed himself.  In this case the shooter apparently had previously driven screws into the doorframe to prevent a hotel employee with a keycard or similar from getting in without using extraordinary means.

Fifth, he obviously tried to set up his girlfriend with a nice life prior to his act, as we know he wired 100 large to the Philippines prior to doing it.  100 large in many places in the Philippines (ex Manila, for example) is a lot of money.  She's now in deep **** and for good cause; we'll eventually find out if she knew anything about the assault, and it's odds on she did simply because of the amount of planning he had to have engaged in and the amount of time involved.  Never mind the 100 large wire transfer.

Sixth, and most-importantly, you should thank God for guns.  I know that sounds crass, but it's true.  This guy had ammonium nitrate in his car.  He had no legitimate reason to have it (it's a fertilizer) but one very bad illegitimate reason -- it can be used to make a very nasty bomb (think Oklahoma City.)  In addition he apparently had a fairly large amount of Tannerite, which is a commonly-used "exploding target" material.  It is almost impossible to make explode except by shooting it, which is why it's legal to buy and possess by ordinary people, since it's virtually worthless for bomb-making in general.  However, this guy was also a licensed pilot and owned at least one light aircraft and, by some reports, two (although there are questions as to whether he still had them.) Had he chosen instead of guns to use an aircraft and made a bomb with said material, which he had in his possession, flying it into the open-air crowd on purpose the body count would have been in the hundreds dead and many, many more injured.  There is literally nothing that could have been done to interdict him had he suddenly veered off and committed this act with his plane, so in point of fact that he was drawn to the "fascination" factor with guns saved a huge number of lives -- probably hundreds.  It sounds crazy but it's utterly true folks.

There is some chatter about the shooter recently being prescribed Valium.  There may or may not be a connection here, but it's at least somewhat unlikely simply because of the long lead time necessary to plan this assault and the obvious amount of thinking and planning that went into it.  However, the potential link to pharmaceuticals should not be discounted until it is fully-explored.  SSRIs, in particular, have a long history of potentiating homicidal rage monster attacks and it's entirely possible that they played a role here, although at this point there's insufficient evidence to consider that as likely.

We all want answers and I suspect we'll eventually get at least some of them -- there is much more to this than originally meets the eye, that much I'm sure of.  What we must do, however, is cut the crap on the politicization of events like this.

The facts are that we know from repeated experience when these events happen the fastest way to stop them is for anyone to offer immediate armed resistance, no matter how effective or outmatched, as the odds are overwhelming that as soon as anyone shoots back with anything the shooter usually commits suicide rather than engage in an actual armed battle.  We saw this in the Clackamas mall shooting where an armed civilian with a handgun caused a rifle-toting nutjob to withdraw into a hallway and cap himself and the civilian didn't even have to fire; the mere presence of armed resistance making an appearance was enough.  It's a repeating pattern; these people are mentally incapable of processing the fact that bullets can travel in more than one direction, possibly because their deluded state has led them to believe "they're better" or "the only ones who can deal death" and as soon as that illusion is shattered by either a threat of or actual rounds coming their way they kill themselves.

This shooter had over an hour before SWAT showed up but again I remind you that it appears he capped himself as soon as an ordinary cop and hotel security dude came down the hall.  On the evidence the facts are clear: The more people who can and do direct fire and do so quickly, no matter how out-matched, at such a nutjob the fewer victims wind up being shot.  This should and in fact must inform our response, such as it is, to these sorts of events.  SWAT is very useful in the event of a barricaded hostage-holding gunman but in the case where someone is actively shooting like this the first and foremost response priority is to get any sort of fire going back in the shooter's direction RIGHT NOW, even if it's non-lethal ordnance such as tear gas, bean bag or rubber rounds.  At worst you'll force him to keep his head down (which prevents him from shooting accurately) and most of the time he'll kill himself as soon as any sort of resistance is offered, ending the assault.

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User Info God Bless Idiocy in forum [Market-Ticker]
Attilahooper
Posts: 2754
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New York, by way of Montreal Canada.
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I am wondering what that "something" LEOs are worried about. A friend invited me to an outdoor concert in brooklyn last month, I felt unconsciously nervous about the crowd and declined. I guess my intuition is right, or I am a chicken ****.

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Vernonb
Posts: 1893
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East of Sheol
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Yeah these LE talking heads are hiding something.


It's amazing how it only takes the FBI 15 minutes to announce the shooter was not involved with ISIS but it takes a almost a year to confirm Trump was not involved with Russia and the investigation is ongoing.

There is more here than a simple lone gumman. They do not want his affilications known.

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"Mass intelligence does not mean intelligent masses."
Eli
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Yep, well put.

This was a guy making a political statement, he did not do this because he wanted fame. The facts as they stand now point to a repeat of James Hodgkins.

Even the massive amount of guns he had in his room could be seen as a political statement. He could be saying on video "Look at this massive amount of fire power I can buy legally, well I'm going to show all those idiots who support this stuff by showing them exactly what happens because of this!"

And you are spot on about the slide stocks, they are just a bullet waster.

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Thetemplateblog
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Pa
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IMO the bump stocks kinda kill the 'gunrunning theory'. It would be different if they were actually full-auto.

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Tickerguy
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Yep.

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Winding it down.
Bagbalm
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Just North of Detroit
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These kind of gun accessories are the firearm equivalent of 'fantasy knives'.
All show but try to peel a potato with one.
Ask yourself why the military doesn't use 60 round magazines. Because they are too complex, too expensive, and prone to malfunction.
Tdurden
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I heard some shrieking harpy on the radio last night passing and moaning about the NRA writing big checks to congressmen to kill any attempt at passing any gun control bills. GOOD!!! That's what we're PAYING them to do for us at times like this!

But I don't suspect that Americans have obeyed their last gun law already. If to borrow some imagery from the previous thread, I think it's pretty obvious to anyone paying attention that the "marriage" holding the country together is over. Neither side, especially on the gun issue, is interested in having their minds changed so there won't be any time wasted on debate. Oh there will be lots of name calling but there is no point in debating any part of the gun subject any longer. How much longer this goes on until the inevitable divorce is anyone's guess.

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Eli
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It is also interesting to see the reaction on the left and totalitarian gun grabbers, they do not even pretend anymore. If this does turn out to be a Hodgkins repeat this ******* is getting the exact reaction he wanted.

The left, agrees with this guy that the concert goers had it coming, they do not even pretend to fain sympathy.

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
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Rickysa
Posts: 2066
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Southern Pines, NC
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Quote:
The more people who can and do direct fire and do so quickly, no matter how out-matched, at such a nutjob the fewer victims wind up being shot. This should and in fact must inform our response, such as it is, to these sorts of events.


Reiterated, as you know, at last nights press conference...to paraphrase the sheriff: Things have changed, we learned from Orlando; rather than establish a perimeter and hope no more carnage ensues, it is better to go right at the perp with whatever you have. The police that did so, did it on their own, without an okay from a higher up...it's what they have been trained to do.
Als
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There is so much wrong with this story.

He installed cameras in the hall? What no one working at the Hotel noticed these new additions around his room. The police say his stay started on the 28th yet employees say he checked in on the 25th?

There is a article on Gateway Pundit noting that reporter Laura Loomer got room service receipts from Mandalay that show two guests staying in that room.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/10/....

Here's Laura's Tweet.

https://i.redd.it/38z7s37hpspz.jpg

Reason: Addition
Tickerguy
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He stuck a camera on a room service cart that presumably was there from a recent order he placed just before he made final preps and started shooting. It apparently was a GoPro; they create a short-distance WiFi link so you can "see" what they're shooting, albeit with a bit of a delay (he had a tablet in the room with the display up)

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Winding it down.

Flyanddive
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Detroit
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Yes, the shooters selection of equipment shows he knew very little about guns. An experienced shooter would have selected something similar to the .308 LR/SR, with 25 round PMAGs. The optical choice would be the ACOG. The absolute worst choice, which the shooter went with, would be .223 with bump fire stock, with surefire mags, and an Eotech.

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Emg
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Canada
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"Laura Loomer got room service receipts from Mandalay that show two guests staying in that room."

If he booked it in his girlfriend's name, he presumably had to claim to be a second guest at checkin?
Dudefish
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I spent a couple minutes yesterday roughing out the range between the hotel room and the concert grounds. I came up with at least 400 yards, probably closer to 500. A 5.56 round has lost a LOT of energy at that range (although obviously still potentially fatal with the right hit). Further to your point. It could have been hell of a lot worse.
Flappingeagle
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Quote:
We're learning more but there's much being withheld -- intentionally so. If you've been paying attention to the "press conferences" you've detected that the LEOs out there are quite-intentionally not telling us more than they are talking about and they're worried about something too. We'll eventually find out what the "something" is, and I bet we won't like it one bit.


Is it 50/50 that he had a at least somewhat large ANFO bomb either in his car or in his hotel room? You could easily put 75 lbs of ANFO in a large wheeled suitcase and wheel it from the parking garage to your room. A few trips like that and you have a rather large bomb. Maybe he tried to set it off in his room and then capped himself when it did not work. All speculation on my part I admit.

Also, for the sticklers for detail: "think McMurdo in Oklahoma City", I think you mean McVeigh.

Flap


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Tickerguy
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Quote:
If he booked it in his girlfriend's name, he presumably had to claim to be a second guest at checkin?

Yep.
Quote:
I spent a couple minutes yesterday roughing out the range between the hotel room and the concert grounds. I came up with at least 400 yards, probably closer to 500

I spitballed this in my first post and came up with (including the 32 floors of elevation) at least 500yds to the inside corner of the concert, more-probably in excess of 600. While 5.56 is certainly still lethal at that distance it has lost a LOT of energy and is WAY beyond the upset/fragment range, so it's going to make .22 caliber holes without a lot of temporary cavity expansion and zero fragmentation impact.

If someone's going to shoot at people from that sort of distance that's pretty-close to the best weapon (from mitigating casualties) you want them to choose. Had he picked something like 7.62x51 it would have been a LOT worse.

Had he chosen to use standard-capacity mags and thus had no jams it also would have been a LOT worse.

This guy was unskilled and unpracticed. He did a hell of a lot of damage but it could have easily been MUCH worse, and that's without considering that he owns a PLANE; used as a missile into a crowd like that he would have killed hundreds, even without putting some sort of IED in it.

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Winding it down.
Tickerguy
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Quote:
"think McMurdo in Oklahoma City", I think you mean McVeigh.

No, McMurdo was the name of the office building McVeigh bombed.
Quote:
Is it 50/50 that he had a at least somewhat large ANFO bomb either in his car or in his hotel room?

Reports thus far are that he had several pounds (no exact amount) of ammonium nitrate in his car; no report of it being mixed, but there's no obvious rational reason for him to have in his vehicle that OTHER THAN to make an IED.

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Winding it down.

Zappafan
Posts: 2984
Incept: 2007-11-30

Atlanta
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One thing I'd be worried about (especially if I were paid to worry and plan for such things) is copy cats.

Lots of open air events happen in big cities with high rise hotels nearby. Use your imagination from there.

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Alosix
Posts: 993
Incept: 2009-03-31

Behind enemy lines..
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Quote:

Lots of open air events happen in big cities with high rise hotels nearby. Use your imagination from there.

FWIW.. I sorta hope this puts a damper on the multi day mega concerts that have been the norm lately. At this point its $2-300 for 2 of us to see 3-4 acts that we like over 2 days with A LOT of filler. A bit OT, crap way to curtail such a practice.. but still.


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Flyanddive
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A Cirrus SR20 has a useful load of a 1000lbs, after subtracting his weight, and the weight of fuel, that leaves around 600lbs for explosives. A typical 500lb bomb has full lethality out to 75yards.

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"I've seen people go into real poverty trying to pretend to be rich."
Tickerguy
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Yeah, that would have been VERY bad, never mind the kinetic damage from flying a plane into a packed end-to-end space like that (plus the fuel that would be sprayed everywhere and almost-certainly ignited, etc.)

Those trying to politicize this into "gun control" are actually advocating for these nutjobs to kill more people, not less -- and as a result they should be met with not only ejection from public life but indictments for intentional public endangerment as well.

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Winding it down.

Spanktron9
Posts: 4150
Incept: 2009-03-13

Reality.
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What Flyanddive said. I hadn't thought of the piloted missile idea before it was brought up. I'm not a pilot and don't spend a great deal of time contemplating mass-murder. But as posted, the destruction from that would have dwarfed the actual shooting massacre. Someone in the future will run that scenario. the 9/11 "pilots" didn't bother training to land, I'm assuming a stick forward deep dive under full power is fairly easy to execute?

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Eli
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The forensics sociology to me indicates, he planned for this specific target and a specific means of attack.

The cops have already indicated he was "radicalized" a lot of people are now seriously off their nut because Trump got into office, and if you watch the media they continually are making Trump out to be the most evil, moronic person on the face of the earth.

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Flyanddive
Posts: 2301
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Detroit
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The optimum would be to air-burst just above the crowd. In fact using a 500+lb mixture of nails, and tannerite, then shooting it while you are flying just above the crowd, would kill at least 5000 of those people. Thank F-ing God he used guns.

This is 164lbs of it.

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"I've seen people go into real poverty trying to pretend to be rich."

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