Crap (Mandalay Bay)
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
2017-10-02 09:34 by Karl Denninger
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Crap (Mandalay Bay)
 

Last night someone with a serious hard-on for a currently-unknown reason opened fire with an automatic weapon on an outdoor concert, killing roughly 50 and injuring hundreds.

Unlike many of these incidents which are falsely characterized by the media, this one appears to have been correctly called on what it is when it comes to the weapon.  Audio of the shooting makes quite-clear that the gun(s) actually used for the shooting were fully-automatic.

Worse, the shooter took high ground from a hotel across the street.

Spitballing the distance involved it appears that the shooter was approximately 600-800' from the festival (at least ~200-300m to the nearest corner, more-likely 500m+) plus his elevation, which was reported to be from the 32nd floor of the hotel (~300' up.)

Thus far we do not have reports on the caliber of the weapon(s) involved, but from the audio that has been published of the event, distance and rate of fire, plus rounds expended between reloading events it's likely the weapon itself was small caliber.

This was thus almost-certainly not "aimed fire" as one thinks of it, but into a large, dense crowd it doesn't matter.  It also appears that the shooter methodically planned out his assault as the police have said he was in the room since the 28th -- so he thought out and almost-certainly planned the room he received to set up the lane of fire he used.

I am going to be very interested in what we learn related to the weapons in question: Full-automatic weapons are not unlawful to own but they have been unlawful to make for other-than-military and law enforcement use since the 1980s and have been subject to very intrusive and thorough centralized Federal background checks for an extremely long time and thus they are very limited in quantity and supply.  You can buy one (albeit with an extremely-stringent process involving BATFE and FBI approval) but the cost is very high -- $10,000+.  It is also explicitly illegal (under penalty of federal imprisonment) to transfer one to an unlicensed person, even momentarily, without the explicit prior consent of the BATFE -- and obtaining that consent takes months.

The usual media nonsense is being run again today.  Howard Safir, the former NYC Police Commissioner, is on the TeeVee right now as I write this advocating for more gun control.  Let me point out that the process to obtain a legal machine gun is materially more stringent than the process to become a police officer.

What we don't know at this point, of course, is whether said machine gun was legally purchased.  It is quite likely that it was not -- that it was either illegally converted (in which case all the background checks are worthless) or it was illegally sourced and acquired (in which case all the background checks are also worthless.)

It's possible he used some sort of "monkey crank" device to produce his rate of fire.  The cops aren't saying specifically, although there are spotty reports (from a media that almost-always gets anything gun-related wrong when it comes to details) that some of the guns were "converted."  The video and audio of the event itself have plenty of echoes (lots of tall buildings there for the reports to echo off of, plus the sound of bullet impacts on the ground and objects as well) so it's tough to nail down.

There isn't a lot one can do when it comes to preemptive acts to stop someone from taking high ground like this near an open-air venue where a very high density of people will gather.  All such acts of "hardening" such a venue are inherently difficult, extremely expensive and "leaky".  You can (of course) post spotters to attempt to identify someone who is setting up commit an act like this (but consider the number of rooms you must look at/into from the outside, and that it's entirely possible for a shooter to employ countermeasures) and you can pay even more attention to who's renting said rooms (good luck getting high compliance and such attempts not being "leaky" as well) with an eye toward any potential trouble in that regard.  The level of intelligence gathering now in place and aimed at the general public to do the latter is obscene even today and it rarely bears fruit; the cost imposed for the benefit gained is enormous and it fails a material portion of the time anyway, as was evident last night.

This is one of the big drivers, incidentally, of the ramp in cost of law enforcement.  So-called "technology" allegedly gives us "more eyes" but it doesn't work all that well, it often "identifies" people who have done nothing wrong, subjecting them to intrusive and outrageous abuses of their rights, and it also frequently misses the bad guys like this one.  On a cost:benefit basis I question its value, and I'm one of the biggest proponents of technology generally.  My view of this, as I've expressed when it comes to local government like our County Commission, is that if technology increases rather than reduces cost on-balance it's a bad bargain and does nothing to improve public safety -- all it does is increase taxes and waste, but of course those who sell such products and services, along with those who run them, love the increases and actively lie about the cost:benefit analysis which is an outrageous and public fraud.

One point that various people keep making was that he had been in the room for several days asking the question how he "avoided" the cleaning crew from discovering his weapons.  A point of order: I usually keep my "do not disturb" flag up when I'm in a hotel room because I don't want or need "full service" for several days; it serves no purpose and is a total waste of energy to launder towels and such unless I'm staying for more than 3-4 nights in any event, plus it increases the risk of the cleaning crew stealing things (which occasionally does happen.)  In particular, in a place like Las Vegas where people gamble all damn night and frequently are drinking heavily as well there's nothing at all unusual about someone choosing to sleep all day (due to the inevitable hangover if nothing else) which would in turn mean that "do not disturb" card would be on their door when the cleaning crews are out doing their thing.  If doing so becomes a point of "interrogation" by hotel security you can bet there will be plenty of people, myself included, that will start erecting the middle finger toward hotel management and choosing not to patronize these establishments at all.

I'll probably have more to say on this in refinement as we learn more over the coming days and weeks.  For the moment there are no conclusions that can reasonably be reached but that hasn't and won't stop those who wish to both pick your pocket and focus ever-more intrusive measures on people who have done exactly nothing wrong from exploiting this event for their own purposes.  For today, I'll leave my thoughts with this: Those who have already, or do in the coming days attempt to exploit an act of mass-murder to screw you either financially or personally deserve prison, not consideration.

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Woeisme
Posts: 369
Incept: 2007-12-12

Newport Beach, Cali
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Wow.

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...I am a man of unclean lips, and I live among a people of unclean lips, and my eyes have seen the King, the LORD Almighty.
Tickerguy
Posts: 150044
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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There are reports that there were two "tripods" in the room (my bet, given the idiocy of reporters, is that what were PROBABLY on the weapons were BIPODS.)

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Winding it down.
Dilbs
Posts: 75
Incept: 2011-04-19

Maryland
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Nothing pisses me off more than someone lying to deny my and other's civil rights... except for a government that allows the advocacy (based on a lie) to become part of accepted governance.
Aquapura
Posts: 662
Incept: 2012-04-19

South of Canada
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My ears perked up when I heard this was a country music concert targeted. Too early to speculate but that detail I believe is telling.

My prayers are with the victims.
Analog
Posts: 1467
Incept: 2010-12-29

arkansas ozarks
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too early to know what went on. At first glance, the Left finally got their 'everyday white guy' mass shooter.

Or did they ?

Full auto sprayed a crowd, rifles and a dead guy found in a hotel room nearby.
That's all the facts i've heard.
Whose rifles ? Who came and went from the room ?

Reports of a presumed crazy Hispanic couple escorted out of the concert for saying "You're all gonna die" .
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/....

Be a while sorting this one out.

Meanwhile, I'm expected to listen to the same MSM who told me Trayvon Martin was an angel ?


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Never trust a computer with anything important.
Tickerguy
Posts: 150044
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Quote:
too early to know what went on. At first glance, the Left finally got their 'everyday white guy' mass shooter.

Well, they may have bit off more than they can chew. It's entirely possible, given the targeted venue, that he was a hard-left liberal "Trump is Satan" sort.

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Winding it down.
James_livermore
Posts: 6
Incept: 2017-06-03

Florida
Banned
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qxv_c7fw....

Bump fire modification would be easiest.
Flaps10
Posts: 6731
Incept: 2008-10-17

PNW
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There probably was a tripod, or possibly something that clamped onto the balcony railing. That dude wasn't hot swapping 30rd P mags. That goes on long enough that it was certainly belt feed which would be Rambo heavy
Keewaydin
Posts: 1726
Incept: 2007-08-22

Just a fleshwound!
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Or even a recent convert to Islam... (Take with heavy salt)

Quote:
CAIRO, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Islamic State has claimed responsibility for a shooting that killed at least 50 people and wounded over 400 in Las Vegas early on Monday, and said the attacker had converted to Islam a few months ago.

"The Las Vegas attack was carried out by a soldier of the Islamic State and he carried it out in response to calls to target states of the coalition," the group's news agency Amaq said in reference to the U.S.-led coalition fighting the group in the Middle East.

"The Las Vegas attacker converted to Islam a few months ago," Amaq added. (Reporting by Ali Abdelaty; Writing by Arwa Gaballa; Editing by Ahmed Aboulenein)


http://news.trust.org/item/2017100214213....
Tickerguy
Posts: 150044
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Quote:
There probably was a tripod, or possibly something that clamped onto the balcony railing. That dude wasn't hot swapping 30rd P mags. That goes on long enough that it was certainly belt feed which would be Rambo heavy

Pay close attention to the audio; there are a lot of echoed shots you can discern (you're hearing them from ~1,000yds out and there are multiple high-rise buildings, so you hear more than one report for each actual one.)

There are two broken out windows, so it appears to be a suite with two lines of fire set up. Cops said two "tripods", which could easily be bipods. I ain't buying belt-fed -- it's POSSIBLE of course, but I bet not, and there are a couple of points of quite-long pause in the fire, which implies he's switching firing locations (consistent with the two broken out windows.)

I'm waiting to pass judgement on this one but the pattern of reports suggests small arms caliber (7.62 or 5.56); at the distance involved into a crowd of that density you just point at the mass of people. That's a nasty scenario; there's not much you can do (other than not being in a place like that) where lanes of fire are easily set up from elevated positions; you don't need to be accurate in a setup like this to get a ****load of people. It's also pretty easy to get weapons into a hotel in a suitcase and damn near impossible to prevent -- what are you going to do, start searching everyone's bags coming in? ****ing near EVERYONE'S suitcase will set off a metal detector (a hairdryer will false positive as well dozens of other perfectly-legitimate things like a laptop, camera, etc -- hell, even the pull-wheel handles on a suitcase have enough metal in them to set it off!)

Vegas has fairly good hotel security in general, but it's aimed at the obvious financial shenanigans one can conduct with regard to a casino. Nonetheless there are cameras EVERYWHERE in those places with a lot of pretty well-paid people watching them 24x7, and not just in the casino areas either. I spent a fair bit of time there years ago for trade shows and the like...

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Winding it down.

Max_planck
Posts: 37
Incept: 2017-01-09

Southern Arizona
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Flaps - No balconies - the windows don't open. The two broken windows in the pics look too far apart to be the same room, maybe a suite?
Tickerguy
Posts: 150044
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Looks like a suite; fairly standard setup there, two different views from the two different rooms in the suite. The glass is all mirrored on those hotels for energy efficiency reasons so seeing IN from the outside until he starts shooting is going to be nearly impossible.

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Winding it down.

Dudefish
Posts: 136
Incept: 2010-02-20

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I pulled a Lexis/Nexis public records report and found a match that I consider high confidence based on the other public reporting I have seen on the offender.

If I have found the right guy, he has substantial means. Multiple real estate, pilot's license, two airplanes (Cirrus SR22 and Bellanca Super Viking). I agree that it's full auto fire. By the way, most of the sound you're hearing on the videos is probably bullet impacts. I don't think it's a bump fire stock on an AR. As someone else said, I think we're hearing well in excess of 30 rounds in a burst. Legally registered full-auto weapons could well be within this guy's financial reach.

Absolutely no derogatory information (e.g. bankruptcy, criminal, sex offender, etc) in the report.

No voter registration record in the report.
Flyanddive
Posts: 2298
Incept: 2008-10-10

Detroit
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Vegas has many gun shows, people with lots of guns going in and out of hotels is not unusual.

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"I've seen people go into real poverty trying to pretend to be rich."
Als
Posts: 576
Incept: 2010-03-12

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The girlfriend and her husband are major supporters of left wing politics. The girlfriend has also spent considerable time in the UAE according to her archived Facebook page. Ten minutes after the woman who found the page posted info from it, the archive was scrubbed of girlfriends Facebook page. She linked it and like I said it and it was a dead link ten minutes later.

"The girlfriend Marilou was in UAE - did she get the money there for those rifle(s)? She worked at a Casino (so maybe had access to money via that too)."

So obviously being everything on this Paddock guy and his girlfriend are being scrubbed from the internet, you can believe something is not right on this shooting. I'm highly suspecting this guy was a radicalize Bernie supporter. He just didn't snap someone put him up to this or he planned it over weeks or months.

It didn't sound like a full auto, more like a Gat Crank mechanism on the trigger. The rate of fire is too slow for a full auto .233 or even a .308.

They make Tripods specifically for mounting rifles. It has a vise clamp to hold onto the rifle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_conti....
Tickerguy
Posts: 150044
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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That video is amusing -- I have a number of photography tripods and even my largest and heaviest (A SLIK set of legs suitable for my 5d3 and "big gun" 150-600mm lens) would be quite unstable at standing height with a firing gun on it. I'm willing to bet this guy had bipods on these weapons, or if he was using something like that he had a tripod set VERY low (I CAN splay the legs on my Slik unit and it would then be quite stable -- but also about a foot off the ground!)

Bipods are cheap and mount right on the front sling stud.

It wouldn't surprise me if it was a crank-style handmade thing attached to the trigger mechanism. Such a device is not illegal, incidentally, as the weapon still fires one round for each depression of the trigger and only your muscles are used to depress said trigger each time it is fired (e.g. that's not a "machine gun" legally, nor is it rationally possible to prevent someone from making one or more of those.) But - the rate of fire is pretty-even for such a device.....

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Winding it down.

Fonzman357
Posts: 14
Incept: 2012-12-24

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I just analyzed the video at 25%. The first string of fire is about 10 seconds long, 10 rds / second.

For those of you in Rio Linda, that's 60 rds / minute, and around 100 rounds total (first string only).

This matches the published rate of fire of a full auto AK-47. It's a bit slower than an AR-type weapon. He either had 100 rd drums, or possibly some sort of belt-fed setup.

I think this is the first mass shooting in U.S. history where an actual full-auto weapon was used. Bubbleheads who are ignorant of firearms always claim this on TV, and it never turns out to be true. In this case, it is.

Did anyone screen-cap the stuff about the wife going to the UAE?
Tickerguy
Posts: 150044
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Belt-fed into an AK would be a pretty good trick considering that such a weapon requires a completely different setup of the action so it ejects the links as each round is chambered....

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Winding it down.
Geckogm
Posts: 4329
Incept: 2007-06-26

Canyon Lake
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Would a golf bag or 2 or 3 work to get guns into the hotel?
Tickerguy
Posts: 150044
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Yes, or break them down and put the pieces in a regular suitcase, then assemble in the room.

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Winding it down.
Aracoma
Posts: 30
Incept: 2015-02-17

Tuscaloosa, Alabama
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This might be the same video that was first posted, but 2/3s of the screen is not blurred.

https://mobile.twitter.com/i/nojs_router....
Geckogm
Posts: 4329
Incept: 2007-06-26

Canyon Lake
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How many pounds of gear ya think with ammo he brought up to the room?

Elkad
Posts: 327
Incept: 2009-09-04

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My educated guess.
AK platform. 5.45 or 5.56. Cyclic rate is right.
I haven't slowed the vid and counted, but sounds like 40rd mags. Definitely NOT a beltfed.
No trigger control at all, full mag dump every time.
Reloads VERY slow. 20 seconds. Lack of familiarity with the AK mag system might do that.
Flaps10
Posts: 6731
Incept: 2008-10-17

PNW
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Golf bag my ass.

When I stay at a hotel and am traveling with any kind of weapon I take note of the sign on the wall that says not to leave valuables on my car. So I don't.

My rifle cases are carried to my room when the number of people in the lobby is at a minimum. Never even been talked to about it.

I'll concede on the echo, and I also forgot about 60 and 100 round contraptions.

I always figured that if a stack of 30s doesn't solve my problem then I'm way out of my league.
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