What If.....
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
2017-09-13 08:22 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 1155 references Ignore this thread
What If.....
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Irma was never even an actual Cat 1 hurricane at Naples?

Does it matter?  Sure it does.  Remember, we were told how Irma was a "hurricane for the record books" and "most intense storm on record."

Of course this is all part of the global warming screamfest -- and expected from such jackasses as Rachel Maddow. 

We rely on real news, not "fake news" and made up bull****, however, when we make decisions that save or take lives.

If NOAA and the NHC have become corrupted then there is little left upon which we can rely.

So with that, I offer this, which Eric Hunsader tweeted:

This shows..... a strong tropical storm.

Note that the eye went directly over that location; it's obvious from the graph.

Hurricane wind speeds are defined not by the highest gust recorded but by the highest 1 minute sustained windspeed.  This was - maybe - a Category 1 hurricane at that point in time.  Marco Island might have gotten a Cat 2 impact.  Maybe.

But even as the approaching storm came into the Keys I didn't see anything that looked like Cat 3 sustained winds.  Gusts over 100kts, yes, those were reported.  But sustained winds at Cat 3 speeds?  Nope.

Just as telling and perhaps more-so are the damage pictures I've seen thus far.  The early "drone survey" images posted to Twitter and elsewhere in the Naples area showed moderate destruction -- of mobile homes.  Folks, mobile homes are destroyed by Cat 2 hurricanes -- reliably.  We're not talking about the roofs ripped off or some damage, we're talking about only pieces being left.  Cat 3s usually leave nothing but kindling when it comes to mobile homes.

Well-built structures start to fail (entirely) at Cat 4.

There's no doubt that Barbuda and Saint Marten got it in the face.  But context matters, as do facts.  The claim of 185mph sustained winds isn't backed up by a sub-900mb surface pressure.  That was simply never recorded and unlike anemometers that are often destroyed in heavy winds barometers are not.

Let me further remind you that 185mph sustained windspeeds are roughly equivalent to an EF-3 tornado.  I've seen the damage field from those; they reliably slab even well-built frame houses.

Was Irma a nasty storm?  Certainly.  It had a large circulation and did a hell of a lot of damage.

But lying for political purposes is not acceptable when it comes to such storms, and it appears that both the NHC and NOAA have done exactly that.  If you are making life-safety decisions you need accurate information, whether it is to choose to evacuate (or not), or if you are attempting to plan government or other organizational responses.  Lies for political purposes that exaggerate the severity of an incoming storm do real economic harm to real people -- they cause them to spend money, close businesses and otherwise disrupt their lives in ways that are not justified given the facts.

Finally, if you want something lighter and non-political (at all) head over to Sarah's blog today -- she's getting ready to put some artwork of hers on the block. A fair bit of it is hanging in our house, and it would look nice in yours!

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Aquapura
Posts: 649
Incept: 2012-04-19

South of Canada
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On Sunday afternoon I noticed ABC was doing non-stop coverage of Irma. One of their reporters in Naples was literally out in the storm trying to show us how intense it was. Of course there were strong winds and rain but if that was a Cat 3 or even Cat 2 nobody in the right mind would be standing in a street taking the full brunt of the weather. That's when I flipped off.

Later in the evening I saw a reporter standing in "flooded" downtown Miami. He was at Brickell and 14th, know the area well. Sure there was some street flooding as expected 2 blocks off the bay but when they panned out the sidewalks were dry. It seemed an awful lot like the reporter was trying to hide that this was a nothing burger.

I feel bad for Houston as all this Irma hype took the focus off Harvey and the people in TX really did get ****ed...FL, not as much.
Gable
Posts: 733
Incept: 2009-07-04

Retired in NC Mountains
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That explains a lot. I was monitoring personal weather station all over lower Florida and none of them were reporting wind speeds reported by the press.

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In all of history, no government became more honest, less corrupt, or respected its citizens' rights more as it grew in size. E.L. 2016
Marquiri
Posts: 30
Incept: 2015-02-24

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I seem to recall Karl posting a similar review of the data after Matthew last year, and I was wondering if we would hear that this storm wasn't what it was alleged to be. I'm in Sebastian on the east coast of Florida and it wasn't too bad, although based on damage to my roof and the neighbor's property, it looks like we probably had a very small twister spin up.

On a related topic, I'm wondering if anyone else in the area experienced this: Power was down, internet was down, cellular data services were down, yet somehow, my wife's facebook app worked on her phone. No other apps that require data (weather, etc.) worked at all, but Facebook worked just fine. She has cellular data enabled on all apps, so that wasn't the issue. Anyone have any thoughts?

Als
Posts: 551
Incept: 2010-03-12

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I was watching the local news out of Fort Meyers during land fall in Naples and they were reporting gusts in the 120's but most of the time the winds were under 100 mph, mostly in the high eighties and low nineties if I remember right. They may have jumped for a few minutes to 105-110 at the most. The airport was the location showing the highest wind velocities during the storm.

Letter from the board President of my building.

Dear Owners and Residents:

The building continues to be without power, A/C, water and elevators. Notices and alerts have been sent from FPL to expect restoration of power by end of day September 22.

The emergency generator is still not running. Damage to the generator was more extensive and parts have been ordered. A back-up portable generator was purchased yesterday to provide power for draining the pool pump room that was flooded. This portable generator is now providing power to the business office.

Significant damage was identified on the roof and in the A/C cooling tower system. Due to this damage, air conditioning will not be available once power is restored to the building as further repair and remediation are necessary. Management has contacted ServiceMaster to provide a temporary solution for wet areas in the building to be remediated until power is restored.

Management and staff continue their inspection of individual units for damage as well as emptying all contents in refrigerators and freezers. Management will contact owners that have damage for review and options for remediation.

Management continues to recommend that those owners and residents who have left not to return until power, elevators and A/C can be restored.

Please reserve phone calls for true emergencies as Management and staff are utilizing all their available time to work on our building systems.

Thank you,

****** ******, President

It ought to be interesting for the fools who decided to ride it out in my building, having to deal with the possibility of not having electricity as far out as next Friday the 22nd.

Here is the letter put out yesterday by the city managers office on the damage to Naples.

Ladies and Gentlemen:

The purpose of this message is to provide information to you regarding the conditions in Naples following yesterdays Hurricane Irma.

The reports provided by the national news services fairly represented actual conditions. Hurricane-force winds were ferocious. Maximum wind speed of 142 MPH was reported. The eye wall, the most powerful part of the hurricane, passed over Naples and was followed by the calm eye. Rather than experiencing hurricane-force winds after the eye passed through, the wind velocity, while significant, did not approach the velocity of the front quadrant. We understand that significant hurricane force winds did continue further inland. Winds continued through the night and began to subside by daybreak.

Electrical power is lost in most areas. Because of statewide outages, electrical service may not be restored for days, or perhaps weeks. Water service is not available in some neighborhoods. Numerous water line breaks, caused by up-rooted trees, have drained the water system. The water treatment plant continues to provide water, but full-service will not be available to some areas until the water lines are repaired. We hope to complete most repairs within three days.

The storm surge continued to rise throughout the night. Instead of the predicted 10 to 15 storm surge, we estimate the actual storm surge was at a height at 2 to 3 because of the lower wind velocity in the backside of the hurricane. Some flooding of structures may have occurred in the Tin City area. There are no reports of storm surge flooding of other residential and business properties. Some streets are impassable because of standing water.

Because of fallen trees, getting into the city is difficult or impossible. Almost all streets within the city are blocked because of fallen trees, branches, and power lines. Driveway access may be blocked. Hundreds of the new decorative stop signs are lost. The Naples Pier was damaged. Cambier Park is a mess, and the Fleishmann Community Center was damaged. The Fire Station at the Naples Airport was destroyed. Loss of trees on the public rights-of-way and private property is substantial, as are other landscaping. Expect to find damaged roof-top equipment, such as air conditioning units, fences, pool cages, and attachments to structures, and limited loss of roof shingles.

Again, we caution that it may be some time before electrical service is restored. Your citys staff and City Council have no control over FPLs restoration of service, nor are we able to learn when service will be restored. Also, we do not know when Comcast, Verizon, or other services will be restored.

Over-all, your city is a mess.

And now for the good news. While your city looks wrecked, almost all of it can be quickly cleaned up. Much of the damaged landscape will survive if properly cared for, and trees can be replaced. Water will soon recede, traffic signals will be repaired, and decorative street signs will be replace. We have observed very little structural damage to residential and business properties. We may learn that some homes are damaged because of fallen trees, but wind damage is not readily apparent for most homes, condominiums, and businesses.

Most of the Naples City employees sheltered within the city throughout the hurricane. This allowed continuation of critical services until tropical force winds required that all seek shelter. Personnel mobilized at sunrise today. Their first mission is to clear the main roads so that you may return home. Access to some areas is not possible because of downed power lines and flooding. Naples Police are patrolling neighborhoods, and Fire-Rescue is assisting with road clearing, fire, and medical response.

For those who left the city, we recommend that you do not return to today. You may find that you cannot drive to your home. Because we are focused on a strategic street clearing plan, we cannot help individuals to gain access to their street. We expect to have the main roads partially opened by the end of the day, and most residential side streets in the next few days. Even if successful in meeting this schedule, downed power lines may prevent access, and streets may be partially blocked by trees and limbs. Some streets are flooded. Many driveways are blocked by up-rooted trees. There is access to most business properties, although most are closed as of this date.

There is a county-wide curfew from 9:00 p.m. to 6:00 a.m. Please limit driving to essential tasks. Cautious driving is recommended due to hazardous conditions, missing stop signs, limited line-of-sight at intersections, and obstacles. It is recommended that water be boiled before use until further notice. Of course, the ability to boil water may be limited with the power outages, so bottled water is the best option.

The requirement that landscape firms must haul away landscape debris is temporarily suspended. Property owners and landscape firms may place landscape debris on the right-of-way, immediately adjacent to your property. Please inform your landscape firm that they may place your landscape debris next to the street. Do not place debris on the street or sidewalk. We ask that landscape debris be placed by the street as soon as possible. Your city has made arrangements to pick up storm debris. Contractors are now mobilizing for pickup and will begin soon.

Please share this message with your association members, friends, and associates.

Best wishes,

Bill Moss

City Manager, City of Naples
Thelazer
Posts: 126
Incept: 2009-05-11

Davenport, Fl
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Can I be the bad guy on this?

Perhaps over estimating it, in an attempt to scare folks to evacuate, take real precautions, to stop there daily lives and take preparations in all seriousness.... Is more the reason this occurred.
Whitehat
Posts: 107
Incept: 2017-06-27

New York City
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@Marquiri

It might be a bandwidth issue. Some of the other apps might time out if their server hits are delayed by some margin. Facebook's app might be less intensive in this manner. I get the same issue on a beach that i visit. Cannot web surf, make calls or launch other apps, but simple emails get through. The email app (Outlook for android) does not require the bandwidth.

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There are two ways to be rich: One is by acquiring much, and the other is by desiring little.
Vernonb
Posts: 1882
Incept: 2009-06-03

East of Sheol
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One thing that has always intrugued me is the conservation of angular momentum. These storms are a swirling mass of air, water, dust, and water vapor. They have mass, they have velocity, and thus have momentum.

Irma was a freaking huge hurricane. In contrast it would take much more environmental energy to sustain a huge cat 5 hurricane at certain windspeed than a smaller one. The smaller the storm the easier it would be to accelerate the winds.

If Irma had a huge size then was able to reduce its size I am sure it might be able to increase its windspeed but measurements are measurements. I see no evidence where the size of the storm was reduced.

Additionally once it slammed into land masses would it not also more quickly lose momentum to prompt quicker disintegration at those higher speeds? Bear in mind we are talking hours and days here - not minutes or seconds.

I am by no means a weather person. I'm just looking at the physics that would have to occur.


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"Mass intelligence does not mean intelligent masses."
Imhotep
Posts: 33
Incept: 2013-07-18

United States
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We got it much worse than expected in SC...like y'all, didn't see the "Armageddon" as predicted. The skeptical part of me thinks it was pushed that way to help "spur" the economy "forcing" people to buy things and go places.

Here's video my father shot from his place in Awendaw. First vid is from Monday at about 9:30am or so. Second one is 4ish pm, IIRC. His dock survived with a few boards popped off. His neighbors', not so much...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajoL6-fo....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AdUCCuT....
Gatecrasher
Posts: 19
Incept: 2012-09-03

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Yesterday's tinfoil is tomorrow's headline, so anything is possible - but something like this would require buy-in from so many people it boggles the mind!

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We are not Greece.
We are not Iceland, or Ireland, or Italy, or even Zimbabwe.

We are Amy Winehouse.
Bodhi
Posts: 132
Incept: 2008-02-23

Georgia
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I'm about 40 miles north of Atlanta. We were predicted to get 5-8" of rain in this area, but we only got about 2". The wind was predicted to pick up in the afternoon on Monday to about 40mph, gusting to 60mph. The wind finally got here at about sundown, but it wasn't nearly as bad as predicted. There were scattered power outages due to downed trees, but this was nothing like Opal back in 1995. When Opal came through the wind was gusting over 70mph, I had a large tree leaning on my house and power was out for over 3 days. Irma was a serious storm, but not as bad as the media made it seem. I do believe that Irma scraping the northern coast of Cuba took a lot of the steam out of this monster.
Jpg
Posts: 437
Incept: 2009-03-23

MI
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wunderground.com shows wind in Naples peaking at about 70 mph Sunday night.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/air....
Tom_servo
Posts: 159
Incept: 2015-07-14

Central Florida
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We prepped to the max for this - we're on the west coast of Florida 5 miles from the gulf. This storm was really not much. We had some downed limbs and one old, half dead oak fell over in a neighbors yard. We spent hours putting up the storm panels and clearing all the potential projectiles. One neighbor lost one piece of soffit. Other than that, I can see no damage to any of the houses in the area. Not even a random shingle from any roof anywhere. Trees knocked down some power lines and some lower lying sections of the area got flooded including a few trailer parks that seem to always flood at least once a year.

Power is spotty - but I'd say 80% of the area has it back now. Checking gas buddy showing lots of green, and rode my bike up to the closest gas station and there were free pumps, multiple grades available and no lines. Publix, McDonalds and Starbucks were all open on Monday albeit a bit later than normal...

Anyone else notice the eyewall completely disintegrate about 45 minutes after it made landfall? That was also a tell that it wasn't the mega superstorm that was being hyped.

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Growing my own food is my ../.. to the system.
Badmoonrising
Posts: 180
Incept: 2009-09-02

State of Disrepair
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I live in upstate ny and I constantly compare my temps to the local nws. Their temps are often higher by few degrees, yet I only live a few miles away and I am at the same elevation.

Of course, I don't live on a tarmac surrounded by airplanes hot jet exhaust. Talk about BS. Yes, they are compromised to push an agenda.

As soon as I heard is was a record hurricane in the atlantic, my bs meter went to 100% What was this based on? One probe dropped from a c130? I am sure a wind speed indicator on plane has never given an erroneous number before.

Controlling energy is really about controlling people. Pushing solar crap, electric cars, just to "help" the economy. Perhaps it goes further, IE, to get us away from oil dependence, hence free us from middle east horrors.

What isn't a big lie? Keep up the good work Karl.
Badmoonrising
Posts: 180
Incept: 2009-09-02

State of Disrepair
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Also, I forgot to mention that there has been massive development surrounding the airport and nws location. Office buildings and large blacktop parking lots have been replacing large forest areas directly next to airport. I am sure this has no impact on the temps in the immediate area, yeah right.
Eli
Posts: 8594
Incept: 2007-09-10

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The whole Man made global warming scam is all they want to push, for the simple reason is it means more centralized power and control over everyone else.

The whole argument is a farce, man is causing global warming and if we don't tax the hell out of people and control everything they do and buy, billions of people are going to die! That is the fear they want to spread.

If billions of people are going to die from man made global warming isn't that the easiest way to solve the problem, less people equals less global warming.

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Asimov
Posts: 109479
Incept: 2007-08-26

East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Bad: https://www.wunderground.com/

Put your zip code into the search box in the upper right, then pick a station nearest to you. The stations are privately owned, and much more accurate than your local news simply because the granularity is much better.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.

Festina lente.
Beignet
Posts: 1999
Incept: 2008-05-16

O-Town
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A friend of mine is neighbors with a popular local meteorologist.

He told her a lot is hype. And it would not be that bad.

This was 2 days before Irma.


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Scottl1023
Posts: 6
Incept: 2016-02-14

NJ
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Follow the money...

Lot's more advertising / commercials with a Hurricane watch on the TV, than for a bad rains storm.

Also on a homeowners insurance policy, rather than you typical $250 to $1000 deductible applied, the Hurricane Deductible applies.

From: http://www.iii.org/issue-update/hurrican....

"During the Atlantic hurricane season, which lasts from June to November, every coastal state from Florida to Maine could potentially be hit by a storm. Increasing development along the coastal areas of these states has put more and more homes at risk of severe windstorm damage. To limit their exposure to catastrophic losses from natural disasters, insurers in these states sell homeowners insurance policies with percentage deductibles for storm damage instead of the traditional dollar deductibles, which are used for other types of losses such as fire damage and theft. With a policy that has a $500 standard deductible, for example, the policyholder must pay the first $500 of the claim out of pocket. But percentage deductibles are based on the home's insured value. So if a house is insured for $300,000 and has a 5 percent deductible, the first $15,000 of a claim must be paid out of the policyholders pocket. The details of hurricane deductibles are spelled out on the declarations page of homeowners policies."
Jamesred
Posts: 31
Incept: 2017-08-18

NY
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Jeff Piotrowski streamed from Naples the storm all the way into the eye. It doesnt even look like winds reached 80ssh from the footage. They truly fearmogered this storm and it was not even close to a CAT 3 on mainland landfall. I guess it is better to be safe than sorry but I fear the agenda revolves around global warming hysteria.

The video is very choppy because his service goes in and out but at 2 hours 17 minutes he shows his position on radar relative to the eye. Hes in the outer eyewall and it doesnt appear to be any significant wind if you use the tree in front of him as a reference.

Lunatic_fringe
Posts: 9376
Incept: 2007-06-26

Location: Terra Firma
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Check out the info on Steve Goddard's blog about this - screenshots of weather gauges in the Keys.

https://realclimatescience.com/2017/09/p....
Badmoonrising
Posts: 180
Incept: 2009-09-02

State of Disrepair
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Asimov, I have looked at WU local temps and some match my temps.

But... I have seen a lot more variation in temps at WU. This is reasonable since I don't know the exact location of the weather stations. I've seen some weather stations mounted on roofs.

I cannot believe that placing a weather station above an asphalt roof is not going to effect the temps.

Here is WU info on siting,

"You can purchase a tripod or arm mount for your weather station. The arm mount allows you to install the station on a fence or exterior wall, while the tripod can be placed on the ground or rooftop."

Rooftop? Exterior Wall?

Something doesn't seem right with that.
Badmoonrising
Posts: 180
Incept: 2009-09-02

State of Disrepair
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And another thing,

"The National Weather Service office in Albany, New York will
lower its snowfall criteria for winter storm watches/warnings and
winter weather advisories across our four western New England
counties for this upcoming 2017-2018 winter. This is being done so
that these criteria in Berkshire and Litchfield County are
uniform with the rest of southern New England, while Bennington
and Windham Counties are uniform with the rest of northern New
England.

For Litchfield County, Connecticut (forecast zones CTZ001 and
CTZ013), 24-hour winter storm watch/warning criteria for snow will
change from 9 to 8 inches. For Litchfield County, Connecticut
(forecast zones CTZ001 and CTZ013), 12-hour winter storm
watch/warning criteria for snow will change from 7 to 6 inches and
winter weather advisory criteria for snow will change from 4 to 3
inches."

I guess we are going to have more winter storms this year.(Ha Ha) What a load of crap. If you don't like the data, change the criteria.

And a few years ago they started naming winter storms, WTF? Hype it up NWS.

Als
Posts: 551
Incept: 2010-03-12

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Latest From Naples,

Dear Owner and Residents:

Power was restored to the building last evening. Water is now available and must be boiled to drink. A/C and elevators are not in service at this time. Home watch and disaster remediation companies are allowed on-site. All other contractors will not be given entry to Surfsedge until elevator service is restored.

Repairs are necessary to the cooling tower and stacks to restore A/C. Please do not reset the A/C breaker in your utility closet. Staff will reset this breaker once repairs to the A/C system are completed.

Please note that the elevator roof was breached during the hurricane. Many of the controls and electronic components of the elevator system may be compromised from the rain and flooding during the storm. We are working to restore elevator service to the building as quickly as possible.

City of Naples and County agencies do not recommend owners to return even though power is restored. The power grid may not be stable for any number of days and the building may experience power surges, flickers, and complete outages. Also, Collier County is on water boil notices and there are still no resources in the area. The county has enforced a nightly curfew, which is still in place as of today.

The storm is over and some lights may be on, however, Naples is not out of the dark. We rely on hundreds of area professionals in and around Naples to provide food, repairs, equipment and services that we need. These professionals and businesses that support our operations are also trying to recover after the hurricane.

Many gas stations in Florida have indicated that they have a limited supply of gasoline for autos and trucks. Please consider this if you are planning travel by car to Naples.

Thank you,
Beango
Posts: 718
Incept: 2009-06-05

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I personally think Scott Adams' approach to the climate change debate is the most sound one -- he basically says there is no confirmation one way or the other, so anybody who confidently proclaims one side or the other is just being ignorant. Check out his latest post "Are the Hurricanes and Temperature Records..."

Also, if these climate screamers are so sure we are doomed, why don't they go get trained/educated in chemical engineering and develop a new super battery to save us all? Oh, but that's too much work, lets just take a bunch of taxmoney and give it to a bunch of other people, they'll break the laws of physics if we just funnel trillions to them. Or how about a ****ing celebrity telethon. ****-heads...all of them
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