Quick Update: Irma
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
2017-09-11 06:48 by Karl Denninger
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Quick Update: Irma
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In "The Bar" on the Ticker, where the grandfathered can discuss various topics among themselves (part of what was formerly "Tickerforum") as Irma was approaching I pointed out that if the storm took a somewhat-southerly path and impacted Cuba that due to the terrain there limiting inflow and the organization of the storm it would be materially disrupted -- to the point that would much limit the damage the US would take.

That turned out to be exactly correct.

It wasn't good for Cuba, of course.  We don't know exactly how much damage Cuba took but there are reports that at least one of their airports was destroyed.  It's probably fair to assume that anything on the northern coast or barrier islands where the storm traversed is either severely damaged or gone.  Of course Barbuda, along with other islands in the chain that took the full force were also severely damaged; St. Maarten (which I've visited before) is trashed.

I will also note for the climate screamers that Irma was not the longest-running "Major" in the modern record.  Ivan was.  We got hit by Ivan here.  This is not to denigrate Irma and the fact that as a Cat 5 she was a royal bitch, because she was -- but let's also remember that we've only had the sort of "accurate" watch on these things that we enjoy today since roughly the 1960s, when weather satellites showed up.  Prior to that you knew when there was a hurricane coming when.... well, it "got someone", either a ship, an island, or it got close enough to either that you could see it on radar.  Prior to WWII there was no radar either.  So arguing that Irma broke a record, or that "climate change" is responsible is just flat-out bull****.

A friend of mine in Venice is apparently without water service due to a main break.  I'm sure there are more of those, and of course the power is off in a lot of places throughout the state.  Flying trees and power lines don't get along very well.

The market seems to think hurricane impacts are bullish given the overnight hours.  Frankly, I think that's nuts; destroying capital is never bullish and when the "response" will be to borrow more money we don't have and spend it since there's no capital surplus left anywhere, either among people or governments it's even worse.  Of course among the "reinsurance" stocks everyone thinks it's grand since rates will be going up (and probably a lot) in that regard, which of course is "bullish" too when everyone's homeowner's and business insurance costs will be rising whether they were damaged or not.  Yes, this will be good for "profits", right?

Uh, no.

But boy it is good for certain people.  I have no argument with the linemen and women who are just waiting for the wind to die down so they can start restoring power, and who will be making $30,000 in the next month or so working 100 hour weeks.  Overtime is beautiful when you can get it like that, and it will certainly be good for them.  Think about that one when you local High School is pressuring your kid to go to college; instead, perhaps he or she ought to learn how to string wire.

But the idea that somehow our so-called "free market" will and should cheer events like this is sickening, especially when nobody has put back reserves for these events and nobody will in the future either.  Instead we'll hear about how "wonderful" the market's response is, and why paying $2.65 or more a gallon for gas that was $2.25 a couple of weeks ago is a "good thing" too.  The climate screamers will lie some more about CO2 and its impact (folks, more CO2 is good -- unless you want people to die from starvation, that is!) and kill a few million more birds with their windmill follies (speaking of which, how do they hold up under Cat 3+ hurricane winds?) while Musk will snicker at all the Tesla owners who he "unlocked" for a week while they were trying to flee.  Speaking of that, how's that going to work out for them when they try to return home with no power at any of the "Supercharger" stations?

Then there's the hotels and such who have and will make bank; all good for them, but not so much for those who evacuated and didn't get damaged.  They don't get to claim anything from insurance for that evac; it comes out of their pockets.  How many of them can pay off that credit card at the end of month?  Since we know that 75% of the population lives paycheck-to-paycheck the answer will be almost nobody.  But that's "bullish" too, right?  Wrong.

Anyway, 'nuff said.  The crooners will be "buy stawks, all the time" of course -- that's what they do.  The broken window fallacy will be out in force, as if the only capital goods destroyed were all old and worthless, thus replacing old with new will be a net positive.  There might be an argument for this in limited cases had there been capital surplus people and governments had accumulated over time, but between Obamacare and the rest of the government always spending more than they take in, along with the sorry and in fact near-bankrupt state of most individual Americans' finances, this is utter horse****.

The political aspect has already started and will get worse.  But you might want to consider the perspective of those who have modeled the atmosphere and gotten it provably right instead of all the screamers who have done so and repeatedly gotten it wrong, which is true of all of the so-called "global warming" models and those pushing them like heroin to a credulous population and political class, all of whom demand more of their heroin and fentanyl like good junkies groveling before their pusher.  If we could find two functional neurons between 330 million Americans we'd hang the climate screamers trying to steal by using natural events as their "bait", but we don't and thus they're all safe from said wrath.

Of course any amount of honesty in this regard wouldn't make for neat political headlines and more theft from you, nor can you whip people into a hysterical froth with the truth.

So that won't be what the media does or politicians focus on, nor will it be what you demand.  Enjoy the shoe-size IQ of the typical American in coming weeks and months.

Be well fellow readers, and beware believing the bull**** you're about to have served on your plate with a claim that it's "climate-friendly steak substitute."

I guarantee that if you take a bite it'll taste like bull**** -- because it is.

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User Info Quick Update: Irma in forum [Market-Ticker]
Oldno7
Posts: 2615
Incept: 2008-11-14

RECALL STATE USA
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All good observations of what is to come from those who wish to ignore the facts on CO2 and those who wish to attack the process of draining the swamp.

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IT'S THE SPENDING STUPID The US must become less a government of men, and more a government of LAW.When people lose everything and have nothing left to lose they lose it -Gerald Celente
Jamesred
Posts: 31
Incept: 2017-08-18

NY
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Im just wondering if the NOAA is being politicized and exaggerating data. It seems like someone is pushing hard for this to be one of the strongest hurricanes ever. At 185mph there are only 4 other Atlantic hurricanes with same or higher wind speed.

Irma: 914mb with sustained winds of 185mph.
Wilma: 882mb with sustained winds of 185mph.
Gilbert: 888mb with sustained winds of 185mph.
Labor Day: 892mb with sustained winds of 185mph.
Allen: 899mb with sustained winds of 190mph.

Irma appears to be the only 185mph hurricane that is not sub 900mb. Hurricanes that are 914ish cluster around 175mph. Thankfully Hispaniola and Cuba weakened is significantly and made landfall in Florida at 939mb.
Tickerguy
Posts: 149718
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Yep

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Winding it down.
Vernonb
Posts: 1882
Incept: 2009-06-03

East of Sheol
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Quote:
The political aspect has already started and will get worse. But you might want to consider the perspective of those who have modeled the atmosphere and gotten it provably right instead of all the screamers who have done so and repeatedly gotten it wrong, which is true of all of the so-called "global warming" models and those pushing them like heroin to a credulous population and political class, all of whom demand more of their heroin and fentanyl like good junkies groveling before their pusher. If we could find two functional neurons between 330 million Americans we'd hang the climate screamers trying to steal by using natural events as their "bait", but we don't and thus they're all safe from said wrath.

Yep.. and I'm willing to be most get their information from political indoctrination hacks from people like Trevor Noah/ Stephen Colbert/Jon Stewart of The Daily Show. They wasted no time trashing climate 'deniers' with all the BS you jsut pointed out. Noah did this in the opening monologue. Absolutely hateful people are they. Being a smartass and a LIAR does not make you intelligent.

I just happened to see it while flipping through the dials for coverage. That idiot can take his arse back to South Africa as far as I am concerned.


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"Mass intelligence does not mean intelligent masses."
Vernonb
Posts: 1882
Incept: 2009-06-03

East of Sheol
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BTW, I don't quite understand teh Tesla thing. I thought these batteries should not be discahrged below the 50% level for fear of damage.

This is rather scary to here that it can be done. They could limit you from going anywhere. Of course what does that "upgrade" actually affect- 60 people?

Looks like a clear case of "assault on battery" to me.... smiley

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"Mass intelligence does not mean intelligent masses."
Smacktle
Posts: 1833
Incept: 2009-01-20

Texas
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I know that people got hammered by this storm, but it seemed like the track it took was better for the whole state in general especially Miami. Have to wonder what insurance company is taking up the wazoo for all those construction cranes that fell over. YIKES!

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Aztrader
Posts: 7817
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
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All the fear driven moves in the home depots and Lowes gone, the dollar up, metals trashed and insurance and banks rallying. What a bunch of BS! Karl's comment about 75% of the country living check to check means that the only rebuilding they will see is through insurance payments or a gift from the taxpayers.
It's almost like someone knew the damage would be less and made bank on today's move. Every sell off seems to be tampered by massive buying from somewhere and moves like this are due to short covering by people that know our real economy is screwed. Who can expect any consumer demand from either Texas or much of Florida from the people that have been living on the edge. How many of those people are guaranteed to be late on their debt payments in the coming months? Will Christmas even exist for many of these folks? Doubt it very much......
Analog
Posts: 1458
Incept: 2010-12-29

arkansas ozarks
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What Karl said about shop class in schools.

After Andrew
the Homestead folks I knew who were handy and got a big insurance settlement

drove up to Orlando and brought back a trailer load of building supplies
fixed their house
paid off the mortgage
bought the wife a Suburban
bought themselves a Harley
changed payroll deduction to put what had been mortgage into 401 instead to keep the tax deduction and in effect pay themselves that interest

Then prayed for another "Saint Andrew".

I'll never forget that line of about twenty brand new "Hurricane Harleys" in the parking lot at work.


The un-handy didn't make out so well.




a.

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Never trust a computer with anything important.
Elkad
Posts: 309
Incept: 2009-09-04

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Tesla 60 and 75 have the same battery pack (except a few early 60s)
You just pay for the upgrade to allow you to use the battery as a 75.
Musk sent the 60s the upgrade software for free. Temporary of course.
Aztrader
Posts: 7817
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
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Consider the 75% of people in Houston with no flood insurance or the 50% in Florida with no flood insurance. If you were smart enough to have insurance but your neighbors didn't have it, then your fixed up house will be surrounded by garbage crushing the value of your home. These storms are a no win for anyone except the contractors and the people supplying building products.
Thousands of jobs have been wiped out with many not coming back because businesses won't reopen. The feds work very slowly and it will be months for a lot of people to get their homes livable again. The construction trades will start gouging and the people in charge will decide who gets helped first. We know the banks and financial offices will be fixed first and the people most in need the last. When the people walk away from their homes, the bankers will whine to Congress for another bailout and then sell the properties to their wall street buddies for a song. Just another opportunity to******the middle class in favor of wall street...............
Als
Posts: 551
Incept: 2010-03-12

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Latest from my building on the beach in Naples.

Dear Owners and Residents:

Hurricane Irma passed through our area, and we are beginning the difficult process of evaluating the damage. Our preliminary assessment is that we have no power, phones or water. Gulf Shore Blvd. is flooded and is preventing access to the building at this time time.

We recognize that owners and residents now face the challenge of recovery from this devastating storm. It will take time to get back on our feet, but we are confidant that working together, we will do just that.

Your patience is greatly appreciated and we are requesting that all phone calls be reserved for a true emergency. Updates will be forthcoming once a comprehensive assessment has been made of the building, property and individual units.

The Condominium office will be closed until further notice. Management and staff will be using all their available time to assess damage from the storm.

Jamesred
Posts: 31
Incept: 2017-08-18

NY
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The problem is that the batteries degrade over time. A 75 will become a 67.5, with 10% battery degradation, which seems common for Teslas. How can Tesla justify its range calculations when software unlocked range will inevitably decrease over time and software locked range wont?
Maynard
Posts: 374
Incept: 2007-11-27

Like many PNW
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Why is there a software lock, and why can they just decided to unlock it? What else can they "unlock".....
Analog
Posts: 1458
Incept: 2010-12-29

arkansas ozarks
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Fox just had drone video of manufactured homes in Naples that survived, most without visible damage, a roof lifted off one that wasn't shuttered.

This was no Andrew and i think reports of wind were exaggerated. Carports were still standing and the trees still had leaves. Andrew turned such structures into shards of aluminum foil and left them in the first downwind chain link fence.

At this stage it looks like Cuba indeed took the brunt of this one.

a.

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Never trust a computer with anything important.
Elkad
Posts: 309
Incept: 2009-09-04

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Maynard - Everything...

Extra fees for software unlocks get you more range, 2 different levels of autopilot, Ludicrous Mode acceleration, and probably a bunch of other stuff.

The car already knows everything about where and how you drive. It's actively reporting that back to corporate "to improve navigation and self-drive capability". Which is probably true, but are they also selling your location/route data to 3rd parties?

What else can they do they aren't saying? It's got at least audio sensors in the cabin. Maybe more.
Radiosity
Posts: 100
Incept: 2009-03-05

Sunny UK
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"speaking of which, how do they hold up under Cat 3+ hurricane winds?"

Something like this, I'd imagine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CqEccgR0....

smiley
Goldmanssack
Posts: 1807
Incept: 2009-07-08

38320 / 07849
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Jesus....that thing decapitated itself.

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"There's a signpost on the corner and it keeps everybody safe. We were all made in the shade." Greg Graffin, The Defense
Als
Posts: 551
Incept: 2010-03-12

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Latest update from my Condo on the beach in Naples,
Sounds really good so far considering 125 mph winds hit the property.

Dear Owners and Residents,

Greeting Owners and Residents. I am happy to report that all owners/residents are accounted for at the site. While there is widespread destruction to the landscaping and some damage to the site, for the most part, the site weathered the event as well as possible.

Management spent the day assessing the building and site, and clearing the storm drains to allow the water in the parking lot to drain. As of this evening, all the water in the parking lot is gone. Time was also spent surveying and taking pictures of the property. The Association insurance carriers have been notified and claims started.

As of Monday evening, we're still without power, AC, water, and elevators. Management has been in touch with FPL but no timetable has been given for a restoration of power to the building. The generator is still running, providing emergency lighting and power at the front desk.

Management has been in contact with all the staff; all are safe and will be back to work as soon as possible after taking care of their families. The front desk will be staffed again starting tomorrow morning at 7am. Please do not contact the front desk to ask them to check your property. Management will be going through the entire building and each individual unit starting tomorrow morning to check for water and/or any damage. If damage is discovered, Management will personally contact unit owners for review and recommendations.

We appreciate your patience during this trying time. To aid in the rebuilding and security of the building, contractors will be barred from the site until power has been restored to the building. Once power is restored, Management will provide a further update. Thank you.


Punch_rockgroin
Posts: 2307
Incept: 2008-12-31

Pacific NW USA
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Weren't the tower cranes in Miami rated for Cat 4 winds? Near 10% failure rate, and the wind didn't exceed 100MPH.

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Put the boots to him. Medium style.
Click
Posts: 13
Incept: 2017-06-26

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So glad Cuba took the hit so Florida didn't have to. Of course, Marxist controlled Cubans suffer on a day to day basis, and I wish ill onto no man, but I still say it's better to have the Cubans hit in Cuba than the Cubans who live in Miami...
Oldpool
Posts: 1180
Incept: 2010-06-23

LI NY
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I bet the Mormans have a good plan and left to their own devices will recover maybe even prosper, All good people will band together and make a difference just be wary of the .gov dudes and their promises.

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Liberty, Comrade!
Mannfm11
Posts: 5407
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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I realized years ago that there was a criminal element in government when I realized that was how organized crime worked. After watching the investigation of people sligned with Trump for a crime that likely never occurred, the entire model is criminal and everything that is focused upon by the media is complicit in it.

I coined a term for the climate debate on Twitter. Liars, deniers and don't know. There are at most a few million people poised to get rich off the pushing of climate change as a reality. It is modern serfdom in the works. Note the number of liars that push the idea, who have massive yachts and private jets. The screamers either work or are backed by someone who is going to get fat and powerful off the solution or are triggered mentally incompetents who have been scared into believing. There has not been a year in modern mankind where the same bull****, if known wouldn't have been grasped as evidence of climate change or global warming. Even a day before the last ice age set in, it was too hot or stormy or dry somewhere.

It is known they have been cooking the data, rewriting history and lying to the news to push the change narrative, which is actually a worldwide rationing of energy and a $100 trillion movement of wealth from one group to another. The only way their issues are actually accommodated would be through starving billions of people on planet Earth. We have senseless wars that kill hundreds of thousands or millions, plotted by the same people, so why not?

I remember Camille, back in 1969. I read a lot when I was a kid. It was clocked at 205 MPH as it came to shore and brought a 25 foot storm surge into the Biloxi Mississippi coast line. The 1960's was a period of rapidly rising fossil fuel usage and global cooling. Had the criminal element been attempting to do as they are now, they would have been promising 300 MPH hurricanes and an new ice age. For the same reasons, of course.

My father used to talk about going off to a sparsely populated island, when I was a kid. Seeing the hurricanes, it might not have been a good idea. But seeing the propaganda and backwards economics that have taken root in the US and western world, it might have been better to have been washed away than to live through this psychotic mainstream bull****. We are being screwed in the butt and fed bull**** on a daily basis. Rothbard said 40 years ago the Parties were noting but window dressing on each other. There is no doubt they are both leading us to ruin, while they steal everything not tied down. I haven't voted in a national election since I voted for Bush I in 1992 and I heard that if you voted, you agreed with the results. DC could fall to the bottom of the Chesapeake and the rest of the country would have a long vacation, provided we could keep the Californians and NYC criminals out of our states, along with CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS and Fox off our TV's, trying to convince us to commit suicide.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Bodhi
Posts: 132
Incept: 2008-02-23

Georgia
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A couple of questions just came to mind. Insurance companies are currently revising downward the amount of expected insured losses and the stock market seemed to be cheered by this news on Monday. I assume insurance companies don't have a huge pile of cash just laying around to pay claims. So where do property insurers park their money? Wouldn't their selling of financial instruments necessarily have a negative effect on those markets or institutions where they're invested?
Aztrader
Posts: 7817
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
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The insurance companies will simply raise our rates like they have been doing for the past 6 years. If most people looked and compared their auto and home insurance bills, they would find that they have been rising due to the fact that insurance companies can no longer depend on passive income from their bond portfolio and are sticking the insured with the bill.
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