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Nonsensical
Posts: 111
Incept: 2017-06-16

Los Angeles, Ca
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I apologize, I've been on the move today, so I didn't express all the things I was going to. I just wanted to throw some things out there consideration.

Over the years talking with people here's the problem as I understand it. First, the North Korean military is garbage. If you're a North Korean general would you follow a suicidal order, or make a deal to turn. You don't just want to survive, but even prosper in the aftermath.

Even the North Korean government doesn't quite trust it's own military. Which is been the strategy with North Korea, put sufficient pressure to incite a military coup. Trump is turning up the rhetoric.

But it's not the military aspects that's been the sticking point, it's who picks up the bill in the aftermath. North Korea doesn't only spy on military deployments, they spy on humanitarian movement. If China started moving mass amounts of humanitarian aid into Liaoning or the US into south Korea and Japan then they have a good indication it's up for them.

There's a real problem then. Probably more for China, but also South Korea (since the area on the South Korean boarder has been scorched). It's what do do after a military strike.

All the parties involved look at East Germany and the costs there, and North Korea will probably prove to be more.

The problem is, the leadership has nowhere to go, so they're likely to launch whatever they can not just into South Korea, but China as well--North Korea blackmails China as well.

So some of the ideas was to make humanitarian deals with North Korea with the intent of disguising humanitarian aid for the aftermath. But North Korea is onto that game, which is why they themselves only want limited humanitarian aid.

But militarily, where would all the money have come from to maintain all of this equipment and personnel? I'm almost certain that at least 80% of the supposed North Korean military doesn't even have shoes. This is why North Korea sped up its nuclear program, and with the help of countries like Pakistan.

Of course war is a very serious affair, and so is the aftermath. But the military problem isn't really the problem, it's who is going to pick up the bill afterward.
Wa9jml
Posts: 21
Incept: 2017-04-29

DeKalb, Illinois
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There are a few things with this North Korea issue that I find hard to believe. They have missiles, and apparently have appropriately miniaturized nuclear warheads for them. They are certainly a threat, but are they even in the same league as the Russians and Chinese?

The Russians have a lot more thermonuclear warheads and proven ways of delivering them from a diversity of launch mechanisms, including some very advanced submarines. But, since the Democratic Party in this country cannot get over losing the last presidential election due to running the worst candidate in American history, and consequently blame these well armed Russians. The Republicans won by running the second worst presidential candidate in American history, but due to the barrage of accusations aimed by his own party and the Democrats, signed a sanctions bill. Sanctions are an act of war. Then there are all the bases our rulers set up on the Russian border, including anti-missile batteries. When our rulers staged a coup in the Ukraine that threatened a Russian naval base in the Crimea that has been there since before our Declaration of Independence was written, they catch a lot of flak for seeking autonomy for Russian speaking people in the Ukraine.

The Chinese also have an extensive thermonuclear capability, and likewise have a great variety of ways of getting them launched, and re-entered successfully. Many of their weapon systems are designed to sink our aircraft carriers, and they could much more easily wipe out our Asian bases than could the North Koreans. So, what do we do with the Chinese, we provoke them over their bases in the South China Sea, and by threatening the trade deals that past administrations gave them.

In response, the Chinese and the Russians now are cooperating on a rail network that extends from China all the way to Europe and even to Britain.

If there were any foreign policy realists in DC, they might notice that the people our rulers continually provoke in Russia and China are also those who might be able to help the US with its North Korean Problem. Instead, the bases surrounding both Russia and China seem to look like they are intended to provide a first strike capability by the US against their countries. So, how will they be able to determine if aircraft or missiles are really intended for North Korea, or are they the beginning of a first strike attack. This is starting to look a lot like 1914 all of a sudden.

Tickerguy
Posts: 149426
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Might be.

We know, for example, that the Chinese are VERY hanked off about the THAAD systems being in South Korea.....

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Quik49
Posts: 3954
Incept: 2007-12-11

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I follow a couple of blogs that track wwii history to the days date....right now it's all about Poland and the Germans desire for Danzig....the propoganda alone sounds familiar....and the French=Chinese in the current situation.... sitting there with thier thumbs in thier ass....
****s like to get real if history has anything to say

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Long Vaseline....

Nonsensical
Posts: 111
Incept: 2017-06-16

Los Angeles, Ca
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1914 was a bit different. Countries weren't really interacting with each other. Here, in this case, there's just way too much money involved for the Chinese government to go to the wall over Kim Jong-un.

We always think that the North Koreans testing missiles is always about US, but it's also aimed at the Chinese. North Korea has become a liability for China. Basically, they're use is up as even they are losing control over the situation.

China has been building up recently it's military on the North Korean boarder, but does the US view this as a threat? It doesn't appear so, because it's what types of units China is deploying. They don't appear to be deploying military units capable of an offensive push. It appears to be about concerns of a refugee problem.

There's a lot of money here involved with China and the US trade. Unless you can cite a time in history where one country went to bat over a country like North Korea and sacrificed, what, a trillion dollars annually, then I just don't see it.

Of course we helped create this problem of North Korea, but China really helped. And they blackmail China more than us. In some ways it's more of a Chinese problem. However, it's our problem, too.

And I get there's legitimate reasons for the US to take them out and not China. The south Korean and Japanese airspace will be easier to protect than the Chinese airspace if if comes to missile launches.

North Koreans might launch into China, even Japan. But South Korea, I don't know. If you're a North Korean general, and you probably damn well know that China isn't going to go to war over a dump like North Korea, if you launch, then where do you go if you survive retaliation? There won't be any North Korea as their one city gets pummeled.

So my real concern is, is China going to pick up any of the cost of the aftermath or are we going to get stuck with the bill. China of course wants to avoid it, which is one of the reasons they publicly say what they say (besides diplomatic posturing).

North Korea has lost its usefulness to China, and as that usefulness was lost, so did the North Koreans step up missile launch tests.

I'm just thinking we're going to be dumb enough to get stuck with the bill.
Flyanddive
Posts: 2218
Incept: 2008-10-10

Detroit
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The US should boost recognition of Taiwan.

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"I've seen people go into real poverty trying to pretend to be rich."
Nonsensical
Posts: 111
Incept: 2017-06-16

Los Angeles, Ca
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And here's a lesson that's maybe applicable. In 1993, Joe Montana was the greatest QB to ever play, and he was still really good at that point. And yet, the 49ers traded him because they had a younger good QB in Steve Young.

The lesson has always been, if Joe Montana got traded, everyone is susceptible to being traded.
Nonsensical
Posts: 111
Incept: 2017-06-16

Los Angeles, Ca
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Ill.make one last point, sorry I've piece it all out, but this is an important topic.

Further, the Chinese aren't going to go to war over this. There's been one real glaring hole in the Chinese military (and the Russian) and they're very much aware of it: they have zero combat experience. Practicing and theory are one thing, but there's few in the Chinese military command that have combat experience--and what, that little tiff they had with Vietnam in the 70s, where Vietnam sent them packing as well.

This is why Russia always jumps at the chance to send "advisers" to places like Syria. They know they have a major disadvantage in conducting real combat.

This is one reason why the US has always liked to stay militarily active and find "problems" in the world.

Oh, and I'm sure India would just sit there peacefully on the Chinese boarder.

The problem is we get bullied by these make believe scenarios that more involve Rom Clancy novels or video games.

War is always a serious issue, always. But there are cases where peace is more odious than war. And I don't know what will actually happen, but I find it highly unlikely the North Korean military puts up much of a fight, and if they do they basically die in place. And I highly doubt the Chinese go to the wall over North Korea. The Chinese aren't going to not negotiate anything, of course they are. But North Korea is where China is willing to go all in....
Ingar
Posts: 4
Incept: 2017-02-14

Mobile,AL
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Karl, Regarding putting the nuclear genie back in the bottle; according to the IAEA, the South Africans dismantled one intact nuclear warhead and 6 or 7 more in the early 1990's. Apparently the SA apartheid regime feared turning nukes over to the Commies of the ANC when white rule came to an end.
If the Norks do get a serviceable ICBM that could hit the west coast of the USA they could vaporize a lot of Mexicans and Chinese.
I'm sure that the chubby dictator saw the photo of Qaddafi just before he had a bayonet enema delivered by the "freedom fighters" that we armed and heard the cackling of "we came, we saw, he died". What better way of avoiding the imposition of democracy than having a nuclear deterrent. It might also be good for extorting aid from neighbors.
Themortgagedude
Posts: 10297
Incept: 2007-12-17

saint louis
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Cut Russia a deal. You get Syria if you help us solve the NOKO situation. Cut a deal with the Chinese. We don't slap your bitch ass with tariffs if you help us solve the situation. Then explain to the little fat dictator that he has 48 hours to waive the white flag or he will glow. That all three major players in the region will bring the wrath of God upon him.

How tough can this be???

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I think its time we ask ourselves if we still know the freedoms that our founding fathers intended for us. Ronald Reagan 1964
Nonsensical
Posts: 111
Incept: 2017-06-16

Los Angeles, Ca
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I'm all in support of ending this continuous blackmail of North Korea. That's the premise of their whole economy. They've been blackmailing S. Korea, Japan, and even China.

I'm fully support Trump on this, and yes he's talking bombastic, and yes he always talks that way, but in this case he has to talk bombastic because that's how the North Koreans talk. We have to make it clear to them that they've hit a line because it's going to be a matter of time before they can directly blackmail us--they've had no qualms no that they have missiles of threatening China so these people cannot be trusted at all. China raised its little monster baby and now it's become an out of control teenager threatening it.

Now, do I think the Korean leadership cares, no, not really. There's nowhere they can go. I don't know what's going on behind the scenes but here's a possible scenario presented to me.

Trump is going to now start talking crazy like the North Koreans, and yes, it's going to sound like a WWE smack down. But don't let that deter anyone. Think about. That's how the North Koreans talk.

Now China will offer Kin Jong-un and his immediate leadership (those who would likely be hung if they stay) a way out, come to China in exile. If they take it, great. How this deal would work out, maybe the two Koreas unite, but China keeps Kim Jong-un (exiled leaders can cause future problems if they need to).

Now I agree with Karl, a successful United Republic of Korea is definitely a threat to China. But the question is, does North Korea hinder or help Korea? That maybe the bet we'll see made. It cost Germany roughly $1.7 trillion to unite Germany, and North Korea is a real dump. So maybe South Korea doesn't go for it. Maybe, maybe not.

Because if there's a successful Republic the real threat to China is Taiwan. I think this was a real mistake for China to not allow Taiwan to become its own country and develop its own nationalism, because there's a good chance that if the Chinese government begins to topple, the two Chinas do unite, but under Taiwanese leadership.

But in any case, it's suspected that Kim Jong-un would say no to the Chinese, but that's the trap. If he says no, okay. But the signal has been sent to all the other leadership: China is cutting ties. So they better consider their next move themselves.

In that case, the US does strike, and likely it's pretty easy going--hopefully.

But it's time we Americans stop getting pushed around. North Korea cannot be trusted at all, not one iota. We don't need to look any further than their dealings with China, a country that literally made the leadership. If they'll blackmail them with their missiles, what do you think they'll do to us. They'll never stop threatening us when they need money.

North Korea's army is garbage.
China isn't going to do anything (they may even be betting that North Korea will be a big anchor whoever takes it, but if successful, yeah, that'll be a big problem for them).

Yes, there's always the potential that things get out of hand, but that's only a possibility right now. In the future, it'll be a certainty.

The real problem, who take on rebuilding North Korea? The south would have to, even if reluctantly. But back in the 1990s they talked of a unified Korea and it was always the South that balked...again, that cost of uniting Germany.

There's nothing good about leaving North Korea to continue this course. I mean, honestly, I feel safer Iran having nuclear missiles than North Korea. It's not good for South Korea, Japan, us, and it's likely not even good for China anymore (Russia could care less at this point because it's a thorn in the US and China's side, but who knows, these North Korean maniacs will threaten them too in the future).

But rebuilding North Korea under a republic and an ally is much better than getting blackmailed by a piece of **** like Kin Jong-un. Just the principle of it should sicken us.

It's time for Kin Jong-un and his cronies to go.
Nonsensical
Posts: 111
Incept: 2017-06-16

Los Angeles, Ca
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@bjonnson

Honestly, it's comments like that that make the task of fixing America seem almost hopeless.

So you're implying that "free trade" with China and the rise of Silicon Valley has...created jobs and real growth. So when a company like Instagram, pieced together in two months with dog crap code, and some filters sales for $1 billion only employing only about 25 people while Kodak which just a couple of decades before employed 145,000 people and valued at $31 billion goes under because their product was artificially devalued, we call of this growth.

Or Whatsapp selling for $19 billion with only 55 employees, that's growth?

When it comes to tech, there's rarely even a second place company. There's Google, and you know that other search company...

There's Windows and you know, that other operating system....

There's Amazon, and you know, that other online retailer...

Well, at least with smartphones we basically have android and ios,...

The music industry goes from $36 billion to $16 billion in ten years due to pirated content, an the loss of 71,000 skilled and technical jobs and this is growth...

In 2012, hit song writer Ellen Shipley reported that one of her most popular tracks got played 3,112,300 times on Pandora and she got paid only $39.61. That's growth.

One reason why I would bet against Netflix isn't just network poaching but even with the poaching the content pirating will likely out them under anyway.

On the first ten years of "free" trade with China, 63,300 American factories closed their doors and five million factory jobs went away. That's growth...

Wow, I'd hate to see what you qualify as a recession. 300% tariffs would actually create jobs and bankrupting our tech companies would actually create jobs.

We lost millions of jobs through wage and environmental arbitrage, and through the devaluation of products and content through the "free" economy of Silicon Valley, which has proven to be the most expensive "free" economy that I know of (how is it "free" by the way).

Nothing needs to be "managed". Believe it or not there's some smart people in the US who would like to make money and will figure out how to manufacture things. Who do you think idioticly taught the Chinese.

I actually think you made a convincing argument for why we should have 300% tariffs.
Tickerguy
Posts: 149426
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Quote:
Karl, Regarding putting the nuclear genie back in the bottle; according to the IAEA, the South Africans dismantled one intact nuclear warhead and 6 or 7 more in the early 1990's. Apparently the SA apartheid regime feared turning nukes over to the Commies of the ANC when white rule came to an end.
If the Norks do get a serviceable ICBM that could hit the west coast of the USA they could vaporize a lot of Mexicans and Chinese.

Yep.

But here's the thing -- in SA that fear was internal. In other words, they were worried about their own people using them ON THEM.

And not without cause, either. It's not like the whites had done something really awful for a very long time to those who ultimately came to power, right? smiley

Now how does that play here? What does Fatman evade by turning them over? And remember, it's not just turning them over, it's dismantling on a verifiable basis the means to make another one. The latter is how we got in trouble in the first place; the Norks were diverting material, and got caught by the IAEA.
Quote:
I'm sure that the chubby dictator saw the photo of Qaddafi just before he had a bayonet enema delivered by the "freedom fighters" that we armed and heard the cackling of "we came, we saw, he died". What better way of avoiding the imposition of democracy than having a nuclear deterrent. It might also be good for extorting aid from neighbors.

That's exactly the motivation for him -- and the reason for the problem.

What can you offer Fatman to give that up -- including, I remind you, the intrusion of having "international inspectors" running around giving his nation continual colonoscopies -- in exchange that (1) he'll BELIEVE and (2) actually has, in his mind, the "protective" value of a handful of nuclear-tipped ICBMs?

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Winding it down.
Paleoman
Posts: 5
Incept: 2017-08-12

PA
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"When our rulers staged a coup in the Ukraine that threatened a Russian naval base in the Crimea that has been there since before our Declaration of Independence was written, they catch a lot of flak for seeking autonomy for Russian speaking people in the Ukraine. "

Hey Wa9jml,

You got the "our rulers" part right.

But considering the massive turnout, and this wasn't for an afternoon like we do in DC but ALL winter, and against a brutal response from their "rulers", perhaps Ukrainian Revolution has a truer ring.

And by your logic, if I read it correctly, Crimea should go back to the Tartars, since they precede the Russians.

Lastly, and perhaps you are unaware, or maybe I can remind you, the relatively large number of Russian speaking people in Ukraine are a direct result of Russification, whereby the Ukrainian language was banned, of the Holodomor, where 7-10 million Ukrainians were forcibly starved to death, and the subsequent resettlement of areas by ethnic Russians where the recently terminated Ukrainians used to live.
Tickerguy
Posts: 149426
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Now wait just a second....

Crimea was the direct result of our government meddling in their election process. You know, what the DNC claims Russia did to us? (Which, by the way, appears to be a flat-out lie -- at least as far as it relates to interference beyond what BOTH SIDES do to each other on a routine basis.)

Further, it was a SEVERE and foolish miscalculation on our part to get involved in it in the first place to ANY degree. Crimea holds the only 12 month deep-water naval port that Russia has. There was exactly a zero chance that Russia would ever give that up short of being nuked into ash. Therefore, ANY sort of interference on our part that COULD lead to Ukraine deciding to toss their control was ****ing stupid on a colossal scale. But that's what we did.

That someone's being a dick doesn't mean we should suddenly decide that we're in charge of doing something about it. Where we seem to arrogate that to ourselves is beyond me, but we do it repeatedly and it's ****ing stupid. IF and WHEN someone threatens to blow US up, that's a different matter -- which is what's going on here and has been for a couple of decades.

There was no such similar threat with regard to the Ukraine.

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Supertruckertom
Posts: 1368
Incept: 2010-11-07

USA
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Morning propaganda, er network AM radio news, has Trump talking to Xi to pressure China and as a passing thought and reportedly secret negotiations with someone inside the Norks regime.

That last part just screams psy op to induce an internal purge and force the Bowling Pin Jeweled Generals to make a move or die one way or another.


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Tickerguy
Posts: 149426
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Yep.

Fatman likes anti-aircraft guns, feral pigs and similar, all of which he has used on his own people if he "suspects" they might be foul.

I wonder what the life expectancy of a Nork General is?

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Quik49
Posts: 3954
Incept: 2007-12-11

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Judging from the size of thier guts it's either a cardiac arrest or AA guns. Here's a starving country yet these joker's are lard asses....that to me speaks volumes.

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Long Vaseline....

Tickerguy
Posts: 149426
Incept: 2007-06-26
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It's rather telling that in a nation starving like this Fatman and his Generals are likely the only ones who have enough food access to become ridiculously obese, isn't it?

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Analog
Posts: 1433
Incept: 2010-12-29

arkansas ozarks
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It's reminiscent of the beginnings of a bar fight, two guys one twice the others' size shouting in one another's face..

The big guy knowing the little guy is a weakling,
needs to make the little guy either do something stupid like throw the first punch or do something smart like shut up and leave.

Time to say to the world
"Don't worry about little Kim , were he actually carrying a big stick he'd speak softly ,Barking Dogs Don't Bite , it's time for him to put up or shut up."

Then ignore him , shoot down the very next missile he launches and blow up both its launch pad and his palace.

That should change some attitudes in his bureaucracy.

a.

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Thelazer
Posts: 122
Incept: 2009-05-11

Davenport, Fl
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It is telling.

So why don't we use that to our advantage.

Those poor souls who live in NK. They know full well, if they don't toe the line, there family gets killed, there kids get killed. They see the fat man and his food, the green eyed monster I suspect is whispering in there ear.

I would suspect it would not be to hard to get the masses to raise up against him the moment they see the door is left open to do so.

Drop the pamphlets, guns and food to them in mass flyovers... let the farm workers know what's going to happen in 3 days and perhaps, perhaps most of them will be smart enough to know this is there only chance to save there future children from a mad man.
Tickerguy
Posts: 149426
Incept: 2007-06-26
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@Thelazer

This is exactly how we wind up in a war immediately. First, we have exactly zero right to do any such thing. Second, China has openly declared they will not allow "regime change" in North Korea, and we have to believe they mean it.

I remind you that China would take it in both holes economically were they to ACTUALLY get into a five-alarm pissing contest with the US. That's both good and bad. It's good, in that it's an inhibiting factor. It's bad, in that such a position makes the military option far more likely.

It's entirely possible that the outcome of such a situation leaves us with BOTH parts of Korea annexed by China. That would be quite ugly, but it's entirely plausible; I very much doubt we would nuke the Chinese to stop them, and they have numerical superiority in boots on the ground that could not be overcome any other way.

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Mangymutt
Posts: 412
Incept: 2015-05-03

Vancouver WA
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If only Hitlary won we would not be in this mess....

Besides the monetary aspect, what did China gain by allowing them to develop nukes?

Are they using NK as a distraction and buffer? Probably but why give NK the handle end of a leash that holds such a monster?

Literally EVERYONE has known for decades that NK is on it's own path and part of that path is NOT being friends with the USA and getting nukes, yet Bush, Clinton and Obama have allowed them to feed, raise and train their monster.

Why didn't we (US) stop them when we could/should have.

What if Hitlary did win?

The monster has been born and raised and the leash that controls it given to someone who does not give a crap.

The true answer to this mess was under Barak and he failed.

The most Trump can hope for, is the same thing he can hope for with our economy.....Push it to the end of the table and hopefully it becomes someone elses **** meal to deal with.



Tickerguy
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Quote:
The most Trump can hope for, is the same thing he can hope for with our economy.....Push it to the end of the table and hopefully it becomes someone elses **** meal to deal with.

Sorry, but no.

That was a viable political (but not intelligent) strategy during the last few administrations. But to ignore it now is akin to what Libertarians want to do -- which is declare "non-aggression" and try to "negotiate."

Uh huh. Negotiate eh, with a guy who has a history of blackmail, and I remind you it's not just him -- it's his entire family dynasty that has conducted itself this way.

This is akin to facing an armed robber and deciding to put down YOUR gun, which you have pointed at him as an act of deterrence, because you believe in "non-aggression" and "talking."

Do it and you will immediately be robbed and, if you resist, shot.

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Supertruckertom
Posts: 1368
Incept: 2010-11-07

USA
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Stalin did it in 37-39.

Short article here http://warfarehistorynetwork.com/daily/w....

Reminds me of this:

And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?... The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin's thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If...if...We didn't love freedom enough. And even more we had no awareness of the real situation.... We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago 1918-1956

When Propaganda replaces Real History, the lessons of that History are lost.


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