A Young Adult Who Gets It
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
2017-06-15 09:55 by Karl Denninger
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A Young Adult Who Gets It
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I have long said mobility is an asset.

Well, no, I didn't write any of this and didn't know it was up until this morning when I saw it. But you really ought to read itespecially if you're a young adult.

It's not just about a feeling.  It's about opportunity.

There is quite a bit of data that says our mobility as a nation has decreased markedly over the last few decades.  That's a huge mistake and is a big part, in my opinion, of why we have the economic malaise that we do.

Our nation was designed for personal mobility by the Founders.  They designed a system of multiple political laboratories.  They are called States and yet we have done much violence to the premise of those laboratories by trying to make them as "same" as we can.

This is a grave error folks.  You can't peacefully change a political environment all of the time.  Oh sure, it's nice to believe you can, but the fact of the matter is that sometimes you can't, whether due to corruption or simply stupidity of the people who live there.

What the Founders did was give the people a means to escape such an outcome without resorting to violence.  Whether the problem is economic opportunity, excessive taxation and regulation or simply personal dislike you can up and move.

If you think $12,000 a year in property taxes on a house is too much, you can move somewhere that a similar house carries a $2,000 property tax bill.  No jobs?  There's somewhere in this nation where there are jobs.  Want to smoke weed?  Move somewhere it's legal.  Don't want booze on Sundays?  Move somewhere with a blue law.

Through this process the good ideas flourish and the bad ones perish.  They literally starve for want of people who can and will pay.  Got a big welfare state?  Move.  If enough producers do all that are left are the parasites and without a host reform or collapse are the only two options left for said municipality or State.

We must stop and in fact reverse the "homogenization" of the States.  The Bill of Rights and Constitution set forth a minimalist framework -- the ability to freely trade and conduct commerce between states, the ability for people to move between states freely and the guarantee of basic rights such as speech and self-defense.

We have allowed much of this migration capability to be neutered.  We have "state" licensing of doctors, lawyers and dozens of other professions which prevent high-wage professionals from moving as they wish.  We have federal "mandates" for things like health care and welfare which again attempt to prevent such migration.

Some constraints are necessary but in general mobility is an asset and the closer we can return to 50 State political laboratories where people can vote with their feet the better off we will be.

But to go with the demand for people to be able to do so there must be people willing to do so.

It appears that indeed there still are, even if only a few.

This fact makes me smile today.

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User Info A Young Adult Who Gets It in forum [Market-Ticker]
Nomullet
Posts: 7742
Incept: 2007-11-11

SW
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They just closed our office and am 100% remote. Seriously considering getting RV summers on Lake Champlain and winters in Florida.

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A bad day of programming is better than a good day of management.
Snowman
Posts: 1914
Incept: 2009-03-09

avoiding yellow snow
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Interesting, never looked at it that way. I went to census.gov and saw that the moving rate was 20% in the mid-80's and is now to 11.5%, basically cut in half. I couldn't find data on which demo group constituted to these changes, but it seems the young adult (25+) group migrated much more 30-40 years ago, whereas nowadays they tend to stay in, largely, their metro home turf. Maybe a reflection of boomer parental coddling?
Flappingeagle
Posts: 2598
Incept: 2011-04-14

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Right on the money with respect to the willingness to move and the need for 50 DIFFERENT states. As a much younger man I moved from GA to PA because PA is where I found an opportunity. If moving was OK for me it is damn well OK for everyone else! Moving for opportunity is what the country is all about.

Thanks to Ancestry.com I've traced my family from VA (1600's) to NC to SC to GA (1800's) and then westward. They moved every time for opportunity. I have the proverbial ****load of 5th-9th cousins in the southeast US.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Analog
Posts: 1412
Incept: 2010-12-29

arkansas ozarks
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Well

Can I assume from the name that's your progeny?
i would say you did a good job.

Congratulations.

a.

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Never trust a computer with anything important.
Tickerguy
Posts: 148942
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Well yes, you can.... smiley

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Winding it down.
Raster
Posts: 2170
Incept: 2007-08-16

Rar!
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You did good KD.

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"Bah something 'sploded"
- King Karl, Circa November 8, 2010 CE
Robodog
Posts: 253
Incept: 2011-06-12

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On a side note regarding the referenced blog post, the photographer snapped some beautiful pictures to my untrained eye, maybe worthy of framing or a commercial pursuit?

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I believe in only one thing: liberty; but I do not believe in liberty enough to want to force it upon anyone. ~ H.L. Mencken
Tickerguy
Posts: 148942
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Quote:
On a side note regarding the referenced blog post, the photographer snapped some beautiful pictures to my untrained eye, maybe worthy of framing or a commercial pursuit?

Oh yeah. She's working that angle -- if you (or anyone else) knows of someone looking for a photographer that gets utterly AMAZING shots (way, way beyond what I'm capable of) they ought to snap her up.... bigtime.

You wouldn't BELIEVE some of the shots she's gotten at live music events.

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Winding it down.
Feedsthebears
Posts: 6
Incept: 2010-06-10

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Well put. More young people should realize that the default "stay put" option is just one option.

One nit to pick...

"nothing to stop me from making that decision to just make a 360 and never come home"


A fresh look at a compass might be in order, yes? :-)

Gable
Posts: 717
Incept: 2009-07-04

Retired in NC Mountains
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You did well Karl.

I have been telling young folks for years to buy a used nice motor home and stay as mobile as possible. With the motor home you can move to where the job is, stay in the motor home and check out housing market. If it is not good stay in the motor home and rough it and save up money.

The real young kids under 15 I tell wait and when you graduate there will start to be a flood of motor homes coming on the market from all the boomers that will start to get rid of them due to health or death.

Her photos are amazing.

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In all of history, no government became more honest, less corrupt, or respected its citizens' rights more as it grew in size. E.L. 2016
Maynard
Posts: 332
Incept: 2007-11-27

Tejas
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After starting education here in 2007 the best thing we did was sell our house and be mobile. It changed our life. We are now planning on building a SMALL house with low taxes and continue to be mobile but with a home base.
Mobility is awesome and opens up any opportunity you want. I think most people have overextended themselves financially that they can't or are scared to be mobile.
Wearedoomed
Posts: 4210
Incept: 2009-01-14

slightly red state
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I know plenty of parents who simply cannot imagine going mobile or getting a small house until their children are grown and gone.

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Pass the buck or pass the baton / But you can't pass the police or the Pentagon / The IRS or the upper echelon / I think it's time to make a move on the contradiction - Michael Franti and Spearhead, Rock the Nation
Pietertvl
Posts: 4127
Incept: 2007-12-05

NFA
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Been mobile for 10yrs now. "NFA" has been my address all that time, here and for real.
CO right now again to see the kids. AZ over recent winters. FL at times to visit my sisters. Other options also under review.

But the bigger point ... the 50 state labs ... is really key. The Swiss have done that right with each canton doing it differently.

PS- Folks in Tucson tell me that's the place to get your cheap RV. They are like locusts there.

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"All the perplexities, confusion and distresses in America arise not from defects in the constitution or confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, as much from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation." ~ John Adams
Tsherry
Posts: 833
Incept: 2008-12-09

Spokane WA
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>>Maybe a reflection of boomer parental coddling?>>

Maybe a reflection of crushing student loan debt?
Lobo
Posts: 377
Incept: 2013-12-25

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The homogenization of the US has led to Generica, where it is difficult to tell which burb of which city you are in at any point in time. It is also part of people moving to a different state and then saying, "We didn't do it that way where I come from" and promptly trying to change it to match where they came from. (Which pisses me off royally. If where you came from was so freaking wonderful, then drag your sorry ass back there and stop trying to change this place.) There are still regional differences, but you usually have to leave the city to find them. Unfortunately, you can't do much about the homogenization of the states. Yet.

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Jackrussell
Posts: 7
Incept: 2016-12-10

Austin TX area
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Snowman, I suspect fewer people are moving because it is so EXPENSIVE to move a household. 25 yrs ago we would pack up a UHaul and move periodically when a better opportunity found in TX. Didn't seem too bad then. Now with such high deposits and pet deposits and electric deposits and transportation costs and dozens of other costs assoc with move, cable, internet, you name it, it is MUCH more expensive now, adjusted for inflation, it seems. Espec. if you move to areas with lotsa jobs like hi-rent Dallas.
Spence
Posts: 3178
Incept: 2009-09-11

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Over my career I lived and worked in 3 different states. I always looked for the best job I could get in the state I would most like to live in or try out for a while.

Going mobile...

Thorvold
Posts: 188
Incept: 2013-09-12

NY
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I never understood why people would want to have multiple homes; for me one is sufficient and even one can be a burden. Vacation/winter/summer homes mean you'll feel obligated to go to the same places at the same times every year. To each his own. Homes are also nice immobile targets for taxation by profligate governments. There's a lot to be said for being mobile.

For years I used to travel all over the country, primarily on business, and watched the physical homogenization (big box stores, chain restaurants) that paralleled social and educational homogenization imposed by the federal government. It really helped to have no permanent residence at that time and a jalopy that could be parked at airports without fear of theft. Less can be more.
Snowman
Posts: 1914
Incept: 2009-03-09

avoiding yellow snow
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Jackrussel, make a good point. The 20-somethings who are cash-strapped with few job openings = "Generation Wait". But at the same time, according to JOLTS data from dept. labor, the ratio of job seekers to job openings is very low. Is this because the jobs are in places that have high costs? For example, in Dallas, the police are looking for 911 phone operator trainees (no college required), offering 34k a year. Can someone afford to move and live in the DFW area on this? Seems like it could, but not for min. wage jobs? Hard to tell from the data where that "price point" is.
Dcsleeper
Posts: 371
Incept: 2012-10-11

Northern VA
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Less IS more.

I have a long way to go. I have collected to much stuff. Now my stuff owns me, but I see my path, and I am working it.
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