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Goforbroke
Posts: 6934
Incept: 2007-11-30
A True American Patriot!
Drain the Swamp!
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Quote:
Guess I'll raise chickens.
Watch out for raccoons, mink, possums, and coyotes.

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Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our Light, and not our Darkness, that most frightens us. -- Marianne Williamson
Hstella
Posts: 686
Incept: 2009-08-18

Colorado
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Sondergaard: interest rates are going down for the same reasons that well paying jobs are going down. The economy is doing poorly enough that no one with cash wants to invest in a new business due to an economy that we all know is bad. So they pile their money in T-bonds instead, thinking that way they will at least get their $ back. The problem with that idea is that governments historically have a tendency to default once the debt burden gets too high.
Patriarch
Posts: 1167
Incept: 2007-10-18

your account summary
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Probably 9/10 are directly or indirectly in kidney failure because of diabetes.

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Our elected take an oath to serve. Time to add: I will not serve in a capacity which I am not able to comprehend or am incapable of by mental defect of any kind, nor will I use the excuse of intellective deficiency if found in violation of this oath/affirmation, which backs charging wayward politicians with treason.
Burya_rubenstein
Posts: 1224
Incept: 2007-08-08

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Quote:
When 10% of the population dies within a rolling 3 year period your house price will collapse by 50% and the bond market, which underwrote all those mortgages, will blow up too. Stock prices will collapse 70% OR MORE.


That depends on whether the price of everything else does likewise. The important thing about a pile of money is how much stuff it can buy. And houses, like everything else, are a subset of 'stuff'.

Contrary to Drifter I'd rather the price of butter to drop to $1 a pound, or even 50 cents a pound.
Tickerguy
Posts: 148437
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Quote:
That depends on whether the price of everything else does likewise.

Uh, actually not at all.

That which is bought on leverage (e.g. houses, stocks, etc.) always goes first and worst.

That which is produced with leverage sometimes winds up (paradoxically) going up in price first because destruction of supply hits before destruction of demand!

Monetary inflation (supply of money and credit, see Leverage) is a mathematical reality whether you like it or not. What is not so clear is that it is virtually impossible (although it can be influenced) to CONTROL where the impact of monetary inflation shows up.

In the present cycle the most-obvious place it showed up was highly-liquid financial assets. To a lesser-extent it showed up in fairly-illiquid but levered assets (e.g. houses, cars, etc.) Where it DIDN'T show up was in supply-levered items very much.

There is no guarantee that when that unwinds it will do so in inverse order, but it's a pretty fair bet that it will, and if you're going to bet on the "where" that's the most-likely winning bet -- although it's no guarantee of being right.

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Winding it down.
Uraki66
Posts: 17
Incept: 2015-12-27

Kansas
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You can go here http://www.icsarchive.org/paperback/cook.... and view/download a diabetic cookbook from 1917. Seems like we had this figured out long ago.

So there is no excuse. Only that we got the government involved in medicine which lead to low-fat diets, the food pyramid, etc which leads to where we are today.

If you read up on all of this, you will find there were doctors in the 1950's, 60's & 70's that were against low-fat diets and knew what would happen.

They were demonized/ignored for their point of view.

Now it's going to bankrupt the country and destroy us and probably kill a lot of people.

To have proof in your hands that 100 years ago (when medicine was a whole lot more primitive than today) that we knew how to handle this condition is mind-blowing.

The fact we do nothing about it (as Karl has said many, many times) is criminal.
Aquapura
Posts: 606
Incept: 2012-04-19

South of Canada
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Quote:
It is not like I haven't tried talking to people about diet, debt, the coming crash, etc, it is just that they don't want to listen.


Seems all I've done by not keeping my mouth shut is shrink my circle of friends. Even my spouse gets annoyed from my negativity. **** it, I'm going to enjoy the easy times before things get hard.

Idiom
Posts: 86
Incept: 2015-02-20

New Zealand
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I'm 34. Healthy and fit n all, but I have to go long something. I have to put together a plan to emerge out the other side of this **** show on a tear, not just survive it.
Alongfortheride
Posts: 1
Incept: 2017-04-17

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Couldn't they delay this by increasing the Medicare payroll tax?
Drifter
Posts: 96
Incept: 2016-02-11

Pacific Northwest
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@Uraki Thanks for the link. My jaw hit the floor.
Tickerguy
Posts: 148437
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Quote:
I'm 34. Healthy and fit n all, but I have to go long something. I have to put together a plan to emerge out the other side of this **** show on a tear, not just survive it.

Then you better find your pitchfork, torch and fix the political problem because there is NOTHING you can "go long" to come out of the other side of this on a tear.

Quote:
Couldn't they delay this by increasing the Medicare payroll tax?

Not materially, even if they doubled it.

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Winding it down.

Idahofarmer
Posts: 1
Incept: 2017-04-17

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I've been reading since 1980 that the US was doomed because the Federal debt was too high. I've watched it climb from $1 trillion to close to $20 trillion through good times and bad. So far, the US hasn't tipped over. I've always wondered where the tipping point would be. If it's no more than four years out, I guess we're looking at about $24 trillion in debt and unmanageable Medicare/Medicaid costs in combination being the beginning of the end. It's relatively easy to manage your personal health, eliminate debt from your life, minimize your cost of living, minimize your interactions/reliance on government entities, and be more self-sufficient for food, shelter, water, and energy. The big question is how do you shield financial assets the best you can.
Tickerguy
Posts: 148437
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Quote:
The big question is how do you shield financial assets the best you can.

Do I have to say it more than once?

YOU CANNOT.

If you wish to push some other view do it somewhere else. If you believe that "asset protection" is part of what you need to accomplish because you're young enough for it to matter and have something to lose then find your pitchfork, torch and do whatever you have to do to STOP THE ****ING SCAMS NOW because that is the only way you will achieve your goal.

Anyone peddling or seeking snake-oil here will be shown the door, spat on while going through said door, pissed and shat on over the fence after the door slams and be pointed to the pot of boiling oil on the rampart that will shortly come down on their head to be followed with a flaming arrow if they do not rapidly depart voluntarily.

I hope that is sufficiently clear since I've now had to say it twice in the space of about 15 minutes.

There will not be a third.

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Winding it down.

Gable
Posts: 709
Incept: 2009-07-04

Retired in NC Mountains
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Quote:
Seems all I've done by not keeping my mouth shut is shrink my circle of friends.


Same here. They all know I am an ex-Registered Dietitian and I explained most of what I was taught and then taught patients was incorrect about low fat diets and causes type 2 diabetes.

They also know I follow sites like the MT and I repeat the MATH presented here and they still what to ignore it. They seem to think the US will never experience another Great Depression or mass die off.

I just shake my head. I have pretty much given up warning folks and I am concentrating on being as prepared as I can be.

Through blind luck I am retired in the mountains of NC in a county where the average age is above 60. The advantage part is the "old" knowledge of how things were done in the old days. The Firefox books were written at a school 10 miles from my home. Lots of livestock farmers here who process their own meat. Chickens everywhere. Water sources are plentiful. And gardens everywhere.

The fat people here are the young ones on government assistance and retirees from Florida and states up north.

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In all of history, no government became more honest, less corrupt, or respected its citizens' rights more as it grew in size. E.L. 2016
Eli
Posts: 8481
Incept: 2007-09-10

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Getting yourself healthy and in order is good advice. Planning what stocks you are going to invest in makes as much sense as going back and trying to get your gold out of the safe on the Titanic.


The crack up that is coming is going to be ****ing unimaginably ugly.

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Nelstomlinson
Posts: 564
Incept: 2011-12-21

Interior Alaska
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"Preserve financial assets " sounds as silly to me as it does to our host. I've been trading my financial assets for land, concrete and heavy equipment. I want things I can take delivery of, and use to make a living. I don't want a stranger's promise, I want something real.
Flappingeagle
Posts: 2565
Incept: 2011-04-14

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The best asset that you can have, with or without a crash, is good health. Karl has been beating the drum on this for years. What good is all the money or other assets in the world if your health is in the ****ter?

In times like these I'm reminded of Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #125: You can't make a deal if your dead.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
No sign that housing, equities, or farmland are in a bubble- Yellen 11/14/13
Trying to leave the Rat Race to the rats...
Sean
Posts: 2883
Incept: 2009-04-21

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Quote:
I live in a fairly wealthy area and am surprised to hear this.


I'm just down the street in Arcadia.

As a note I'm willing to bet all my limbs that a great if not 80+++% of the "Beverly Hills" of Phoenix population is in debt up to their eyeballs.

I go on a bike ride most sats to Scottsdale and I never see a car over 2 years old and more cookie-cutter mcmansion developments that I can count. The property tax alone would require me to rob a bank every other month AND then some.

Guaranteed most of the 'Scottsdalians' (you excepted of course) are in debt Massively- guaranteed.


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GEN 5:32,GEN 7:6, 6/17/1689, 6/17/1789, 10/13/1917, 10/13/2017 (???)
Topgun
Posts: 60
Incept: 2016-09-10


Banned
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The only way you can preserve the value of your cash is to burn it, and use it as the charcoal content of the gunpowder you will need.

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When Revolution comes to America, I want to shoot these sumbitches with Black Powder so they know Im not blowing smoke up their backsides.
Tickerguy
Posts: 148437
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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BTW "on-budget" tax receipts are down about 1.2% .vs. comparable period from the end of the fiscal to the end of last month.

Do you pay taxes on money you didn't earn, estimates on funds you didn't take in or corporate and employment taxes on money you didn't make and people you didn't hire?

I didn't think so.

Now maybe you can explain how we're going to fund something increasing at 9% annually when the income side of the ledger is DECREASING, and I note that there have no changes in tax RATES as of yet either.

PS: Last full year on-budget receipts were down ~0.8%. If you think this isn't going to blow up you're deluded.

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Winding it down.

Eli
Posts: 8481
Incept: 2007-09-10

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What is really interesting to me, around where I live. There are all these older people living in big hard to maintain homes. And think about all the out of shape baby boomers in homes that are now more than they can afford to maintain.

They should have gotten out sooner. To go along with all this the demographics suck!

When Sears and JC Pennys give up the ghost, the hulking empty spaces will be good reminded of where we are headed.

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Sandor
Posts: 1968
Incept: 2007-08-08

Marathon,Fl
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Karl, I cannot figure out why you have not given up and gone full Galt yet.

I did.

Watching my father die of Pancreatic Cancer last week cemented my view....(if Morphine is not available be prepared to kill yourself by other means because the pain is intolerable)

Live every day to the fullest and expect nothing the next.

I am really enjoying the Florida Keys!
Mannfm11
Posts: 5344
Incept: 2009-02-28

DFW, Tx
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Who the hell can disagree with this? Get your calculator and compound 1.04 30 times and multiply it by 16. Then take 1.09 and compound it 30 times. The 16 represents how many times the economy was larger than health spending, which represents between 6% and 7% of GDP. The compound 9% number comes out to 12.17, the 4% compound to 49.90. At that pace, the economy has gone from 16 times health care to a little over 4 times. This isn't far from reality. If you do it another 30 years, the numbers will be roughly equal. The same holds true of the stock market model and anything else that compounds much more than the whole.

One thing I would differ. If they cut out funding type II diabetes, we would see a competitive industry arise. The same is true if they got rid of health insurance.

In defense of the budget, I venture that government actually pays for about 75% of treatment. The quality is what it is. If I am correct, which logic tells me I am close, this means the private sector is paying 4 to 6 times what the government pays for the same treatment. If this is anywhere near accurate, it means the government is paying for people that would otherwise be able to pay.

Where do I get the government proportion? From what I have heard over the years. There was a widely repeated statement a few years ago that 50% of all health spending was in the last year of life. Actuarial figures are that 80% of men and 90% of women live to 60 years old. I don't know how many expire in the next 5 years, but lets say it is 5% on both sexes. That leaves around 80% of the population dying on Medicare. There goes 40% of the whole. Then we have the non-terminal seniors and the people on disability, which I suspect make up a sizable number of the premature terminal patients. Throw in the Medicaid, which covers one hell of a lot of the terminally ill.

I suspect that regular health insurance pays for few terminal illnesses. Why are we being billed at a rate double the group that contains the vast majority of terminal illnesses? W see the effect on insurance costs, when just a few of them are crammed into the private markets. There are only 2 reasons. One, the working people are being ripped off by a government arranged cartel and the government is trying to force us into a single payer government controlled system.

If the game wasn't rigged. a sizable amount of Medicaid would disappear. How much of Obamacare is Medicaid? From what I understand, a large portion. How much of the cost of doing business in the US can be traced to the Medical racket? A minimum of 20% and likely more, as government pays for nothing it doesn't take from the private sector.

Karl hit the nail on the head. I can read, do math and come to a logical deduction. You only need drive a car and watch how slow people are in making decisions to realize the shortage of people that can do so. Anyone who can make a logical deduction can see we are being billed a minimum of triple and maybe 5 or 6 times the cost of private medicine. The information is out there.

One reason they rushed the health care bill was to prevent the real information from being let out of the can. My point is that government is already paying the bulk of treatment and their figures aren't that far out of line. The money is being paid by the private side. We are being fleeced. You decide the reason.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Smacktle
Posts: 1803
Incept: 2009-01-20

Texas
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I keep telling you people that we need to invest in trading cards and bobbleheads! The currency of the future!

When all those people die and you run out of friends, the bobbleheads will keep you company and always agree or disagree with you depending on which way you shake their heads.

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Tsherry
Posts: 797
Incept: 2008-12-09

Spokane WA
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>>When Sears and JC Pennys give up the ghost, the hulking empty spaces will be good reminded of where we are headed.>>

A relative is in the redevelopment business, of facilities just like this. We have easily, a 30-35% oversupply of commercial real estate, vacant, right now, nationwide. Much of this space is in 1970's era regional shopping centers converted to indoor malls. They have found a very lucrative opportunity in purchasing financially-in-crush-depth malls from banks, tearing them open, and making them more of an urban village.

The seas of parking lots are torn up and high-density apartments, townhouses and condos are built; the big box stores are carved up into fitness centers and grocery stores; the movie theaters usually stay, the middling parasite stores might stay or might be converted to medical practices or other professional practices. Rooftops are sometimes turned into vegetable gardens.

For the moment, this seeeeems to be an opportunity. It can't last; it all depends on ultra-cheap money and people's greed to make a buck on the development and people to make a buck on a flip. One day soon, this 'model' will not work.
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