Payroll Report: +98k (ROFL!)
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
2017-04-07 07:45 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 307 references Ignore this thread
Payroll Report: +98k (ROFL!)
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Oh this is amusing...

The unemployment rate declined to 4.5 percent in March, and total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 98,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services and in mining, while retail trade lost jobs.

smiley

The household survey says something different entirely; it was +1,034 (1.034 million), statistically identical to last month's 1.067.

262,000 people came back into the workforce and the employment:population ratio ticked up 4 ticks.

Meh.  As for the employment:population ratio that's normal from a seasonal perspective:

So far there's no trend break here.  I'll keep an eye on it for a possible break of trend next month, but thus far, nope.

What I find particularly amusing is the continued "employment gain" in the biggest theft sector in the economy: Health care.  Of course nobody cares about what the CBO says is going to blow us all to bits -- the exponential expansion of Medicare and Medicaid, a fact I've been tracking for a couple of decades, raising hell about since I started writing this column and which the CBO now pegs as having entered the "headed for straight up" part of the curve -- which is where it blows the economy and markets to bits.

Most of those "health care" jobs, incidentally, have exactly zero to do with delivering one bit of care to anyone.  They're all administrative -- or, if you prefer, parasitic.  Ditto for "financial activities" (read: buy KY by the 55 gallon drum; you're going to need it.)

Retail trade went in the toilet, losing 30,000 employees.

One interesting point: 16-19 year olds, which are mostly high school students, saw a outsized improvement in employment:population ratio.  This is a very odd month for that -- it's normal to see it during May or June (when school is out) but not now.   You have to wonder on this one....

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User Info Payroll Report: +98k (ROFL!) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Azengrcat
Posts: 397
Incept: 2010-05-31

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The culprit of the military aggression has been revealed.
Dilbs
Posts: 70
Incept: 2011-04-19

Maryland
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It's all government job programs, either overt or covert. Can never get a straight answer to the question of why someone paying cash on the barrel head should be charged (significantly) more than someone who required the "hugely" additional overhead of processing insurance. Anywhere I go, I can get a cash discount. Healthcare, you just get the extra service of a whole fist up the yazoo. Absolutely broken market.

Karl, have you been on WBAL lately? I would think C4 would have the discussion. Derek Hunter, Mr. Healthcare Policy, shuts the discussion down whenever it is brought up by caller no response on email.
Tickerguy
Posts: 148437
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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Not real recently..... but I'd sure entertain it.

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Winding it down.
Dilbs
Posts: 70
Incept: 2011-04-19

Maryland
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OK - Once the Syria cycle dies down, I will place the suggestion as best I can. I'm simply a listener, but calls do get through on occasion.
Aquapura
Posts: 606
Incept: 2012-04-19

South of Canada
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Karl, excuse my ignorance but would Health Insurance Co's be included in that health care employment #? I find them to be just as parasitic as the hospital administrator, maybe worse.

There's a big insurance giant just down the road from me that a plurality of my neighbors work for. They are constantly hiring and if you live in their microcosm the world looks good. Good wages, consistent growth, etc. etc.

Making comments that echo yours has made me unpopular at the neighborhood events.
Tickerguy
Posts: 148437
Incept: 2007-06-26
A True American Patriot!
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I'm not sure if that shows up in health care or F&I.

But note that F&I was up in employment too, so does it really matter?

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Winding it down.

Ktrosper
Posts: 3252
Incept: 2010-04-06

ft collins co
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KD wrote..
...parasitic...

Yup. Thank you.

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D
Aztrader
Posts: 7750
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
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Don't know what happened, but about 5 weeks ago, sales just fell off a cliff. I thought it might just be the defense business, but spoke to people in sporting goods, luxury goods, autos, and they saw exactly the same thing. People just stopped shopping and things went dead.
Wondering if it is reflected on the BS going on in Congress with repealing Obamacare. Those of us being raped by the system with insane premiums are starting to realize that nothing will be done and we are down to the count. If something isn't done to get these premiums and costs down, this economy is going to crash making 1929 look like a walk in the park. No one has any discretionary spending left and it's starting to show.
Starting a war won't fix a thing and it almost looks like the markets are on their last leg. Too bad the morons on Congress still don't get it.
Aztrader
Posts: 7750
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
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Just saw this posted:

ECONX Consumer Credit Growth Picks Up in February



Total outstanding consumer credit increased by $15.2 billion in February (Briefing.com consensus $14.0 billion) after increasing an upwardly revised $10.9 billion (from $8.8 billion) in January.

The growth in February was driven mostly by an increase in nonrevolving credit, which was up $12.3 billion from January to $2.79 trillion.

Revolving credit increased by $3.0 billion to $1.00 trillion.

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.75% in February, with revolving credit increasing at an annual rate of 3.50% and nonrevolving credit increasing at an annual rate of 5.25%.

Bruceallen123
Posts: 102
Incept: 2010-02-12

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Not buying it either, Karl. A buddy of mine works as a conductor for a well-known national rail company. They were just laid off without notice last weekend. No warning, just a phone call saying don't bother coming on, you're on indefinite layoff. He never even saw it coming. Another guy I know who's a long-haul trucker said half their fleet is currently sitting idle, orders have dried up, and retail stores have been closing left and right in the mall. My neighbor's house just went up for sale too. He hasn't lived there for almost a month now. Literally just walked away from his mortgage, no reason or explanation given. Also, new car sales are tanking too from what I understand. I call BS on the whole thing.

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