So I'm 'Negative Nancy' Eh?
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
2017-04-05 11:45 by Karl Denninger
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So I'm 'Negative Nancy' Eh?
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Stop the inane folks.

Seriously, stop it.

I want you to take just a few minutes and listen to this.  I've conveniently set the time to where the salient portion is in my presentation (Youtube's "time selector" has some slop in it on replay due to buffering, but it's very close):

That's a roughly hour-long talk I gave in 2012. Health Care including VA (which I exclude in my current postings) was $850 billion in 2012.

Last fiscal was $1,417 billion or nearly a double in five years.  That's the same acceleration in spending that has been going on since the 1980s.

This cannot continue.  It must stop now.  I have been writing on this incessantly since 2007 here in The Market Ticker, been raising hell about it since I was an Internet CEO in the 1990s and been doing presentations on it to so-called Conservative groups through most of that time, including this one in Orlando in 2012.

Sticking your fingers in your ears and going la-la-la-la-la-la-Trump-La-la-Trump-la-PlannedParenthood-la-la is going to get you and your children killed if you have any sort of medical issue whatsoever in the next five to ten years.

Social Security has exactly zero to do with the impending insolvency of the Federal Government, as I've repeatedly pointed out and the CBO has now underlined.

 by tickerguy

It is this exponential explosion in debt that was clearly going to happen in the 1990s, that I was talking about in the above presentation and now it's staring us in the face as we are entering the portion of the curve where it goes straight up.

This is all Health Care as I have been saying for decades and presenting to anyone who cares to listen in multiple public speeches, including this one.  The trend has been maintained despite Obamacare's passage, despite lots of bleating by the Congress, despite the so-called "Make America Great Again" and more.

America will not only fail to become "great again" it will collapse on a fiscal basis and so will the economy if this is not stopped now.

We have less than five years.  Not to talk about it, not to start it but to completely and permanently put a stop to and return it to historical norms -- which is about 1/5th of today's spending levels.

We had 30 years, then 20, and when the above presentation was made we had 10 years.

We squandered all of that time and opportunity.

We decided that "Guns, Gays and God" were more important than mathematical laws that guarantee outcomes.  We decided that fighting over Planned Parenthood was more important than destroying the economy that every child in this country has to live in just a few short years down the road -- both the children here today and to be born tomorrow.

Folks, we either cut this crap out right here, right now, today or this nation dies.  It dies fiscally, it dies economically, millions will die physically and the odds of ridiculous levels of unrest and violence typical of places like Venezuela is far too high for anyone to rationally accept.

So here's the deal: If we're not going to make progress because nobody will stand and demand that the politicians stop this crap right now, and enforce that demand through whatever peaceful acts are necessary up to and including a general strike then everyone may as well put their middle finger up and go enjoy the next five years while there's something left in America to enjoy.

Just make sure, if you're going to do that or sit on your ass and cheer on Netflix, Facebook and Amazon that you're ok with your kids being screwed or dead along with yourself -- because that's exactly what's going to happen if we don't act now.

Not in five years, not next year, not next month, not "after tax cuts" or "after Trump does X" or even "after we impeach Trump" (if you're a Democrat.)

It has to happen now, not during some mythical tomorrow which is always promised by the political class and yet that "tomorrow" never comes.

The answer is found here and here.

"Do or do not -- there is no try" - Yoda

"If you choose not to decide you still have made a choice!" - Rush, Free Will

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User Info So I'm 'Negative Nancy' Eh? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Texm3
Posts: 218
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One mans negativity is another mans realism.
Goforbroke
Posts: 6934
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KD is right ... "they" don't get it and "they" don't care to get it.

I spent the morning at a breakfast with 60 private and public sector health benefits managers talking about the ACA and the future of health insurance costs. The keynote speaker was a politician whose expertise is supposedly in healthcare.

Needless to say, I brought up several points.

1. It is totally unsustainable, that health insurance and health costs are killing us. People simply cannot withstand the costs as they are now, much less the year-over-year increases.

2. That the source of the problem lies in what the providers do ... namely, subject patients to procedures without giving them (or being able to give them) the charge upfront ("I know of no other industry where you have something done without knowing what you are paying").

3. That even if there is an estimated cost, medical providers are not held accountable to the deceptive and fradulent practices stipulations in the Ohio Administrative Code.

4. That the Ohio AG's office will not investigate nor prosecute medical providers for deceptive and fraudulent practices, even though they are not excluded in OAC.

5. That double billing exists due to medicare/medicaid regulations which permit it if two different CPT codes are billed.

6. That, no, we do not have the 10 years in which it is "hoped" that the industry become more consumer-driven.

7. That there is absolutely no incentive nor motivation on the part of consumers to price-shop if they pay a mere fraction of what the health insurance costs their employers.

I didn't bring up the medical monopoly, price discrimination concepts because I think I was already blowing them away with the seven points above.

The politician said that those in Washington had no clue about the ins-and-outs of the medical industry. "They aren't in any way as knowledgeable as you are." (My internal reaction? Then let knowledgeable people talk with them.)

The "solution?" "Get to know your local state representatives and let them know. The power is in the people."

Nothing is going to happen. Because they don't want it to happen. They want to continue to dabble around the edges so they look like they are doing something without attacking the problem systemically.

Sigh.

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Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our Light, and not our Darkness, that most frightens us. -- Marianne Williamson
Tickerguy
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They know if they go after it the economy has an instant and deep recession; among other things 150,000 medical coders all lose their jobs. Yes, the realignment will be FAR better for everyone (including those coders!) as the one-time productivity boost will make the economy come roaring back in 6 to 12 months but the SHORT TERM and immediate hit is something they know damn well will occur.

When I went up to an infamous Senate Office Building to meet with staffers about five years ago and presented this they ALL knew already (1) what the growth rate was, (2) what the rule of 72 was, (3) what that meant and (4) that it was going to blow sky high in about 10 years.

NOT ONE OF THEM THOUGHT THE GOVERNMENT COULD GET AWAY WITH IT -- THEY ALL KNEW IT COULD NOT CONTINUE INDEFINITELY, AND MOST THOUGHT MY TIMELINE WAS, IF ANYTHING, TOO FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE!!

However, they ALSO were unwilling to risk their seats to fix it and they knew good and ******n well that's exactly what they'd be doing if they took this issue on.

Thus, it's up to THE PEOPLE. Until and unless we make clear that they either fix it or the pitchforks and torches are going to come out -- either now or WHEN the collapse occurs, and THEY will be held personally responsible, THEY WILL DO NOTHING.

The responsibility is OURS. We can take this on at a state level to SOME degree (and it would help) but at the end of day it's the federal level that HAS TO come down like a hammer on this crap -- and we're running out of time FAST to do so.

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Winding it down.

Goforbroke
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Oh, and here's the cherry on top of this ****pile.

There are companies which do what is called, "Revenue Enhancement Consulting" which are hired by the providers to ... you guessed it ... figure out ways to legally enhance revenue -- icluding looking at coding systems.

My vocal reaction at this get-together? "They should be in jail." That went over well. Haha

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Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our Light, and not our Darkness, that most frightens us. -- Marianne Williamson
Tsherry
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I've come to the sad conclusion that our electeds are just a bunch of monkeys with sticks, poking at the sparks coming from the fuse to the bomb that will shortly vaporize this nation.
Apotheoun
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This is a "we" problem not a "they" problem.

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Preparing to go fishing.

I can't take the level of theft any longer.
Tickerguy
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Quote:
This is a "we" problem not a "they" problem.

Exactly.

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Paull
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I don't think you are being overly negative. I lived through the Zimbabwean economic crash and it did not happen quickly probably was predicted years before but it took 20 plus years of overspending to collapse the economy. So I don't doubt this will happen to Western economies on a larger scale. The signs you point to are clear. A key indicator is a favoured group above the law to be economically helped for some very good reason. In Zimbabwe it was ex liberation soldiers
Rd
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Sent links of your tickers to a NPR show 1A - if they do read it they will know you will make a good/interesting guest on the subject
Leest
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Karl,
I'm having trouble verifying your 1.4 trillion number. CBO pages say more like 1.1 trillion. I'm not trying to be difficult, just could use clarification so I can argue this critical issue with friends.
Thanks.
Tickerguy
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Pull up the MTS and look at the center for for Medicare and Medicaid services total line.. Will upload the link and image later.

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Vitchilo
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Don't worry, Trump is gonna attack Syria within a week and all will be solved when Russia turns us all into a glass parking lot

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Vernonb
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This whole health care mess reminds me of the story of Noah. Karl has been playing the part of Noah. No one wanted to listen to Noah either - until it started raining. When it became apparent the rain wasn't going to stop and the floods had started everyone wanted Noah to save them.

When the door closed no power on earth could again open it until the environment was right. The power wielded in this case is mathematics.

Not only do these people not listen - they mock, ridicule, and scorn you. It all sounds so familiar. Sadly prophets are seldom recognized in their own time or by their own people.

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"Mass intelligence does not mean intelligent masses."
Tickerguy
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Meh.

Prophets claim to have heard God but have no evidence, because there can't be any evidence.

Arithmetic is not prophecy. It's immutable law and cannot be changed by anyone.

Not even God.

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Vernonb
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Sometimes all one needs to be a prophet is insight (to the immutable law) and reason. Sadly that seems to be lacking in many things today.

Mathematics are predictable. Perhaps I should have said prognosticator.


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"Mass intelligence does not mean intelligent masses."
Goforbroke
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I learned this morning from an acquaintance that dialysis treatments are $12,000 PER SESSION. What that means is that in a couple of years, the $1,000,000 lifetime cap is eaten up.

Unsustainable.

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Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our Light, and not our Darkness, that most frightens us. -- Marianne Williamson
Tickerguy
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Two years of dialysis and you're dead most of the time anyway.

Dialysis is a last-ditch thing. Short term it can save your life, but if you need it on a continual basis it's another matter entirely.

The problems start with the fact that the kidneys not only filter out uric acid (which is most of the non-water component of piss) but they also regulate the levels of salts in your body -- sodium and potassium. They do this with a very high degree of accuracy, as with all biological processes, and do it all the time -- 24x7. Dialysis, of course doesn't run 24x7 so there's an inherent problem in that electrolyte balance is completely ****ed up all the time, and that's very, very bad.

Worse is that the kidneys are a key component in the regulatory mechanism for hemoglobin production. Without them THAT goes haywire too, so now you have another, also very serious issue.

No amount of "monitoring" and drugs can adequately replace the fine-grained control that the natural processes produce, so your body gets basically eaten from the inside out. Yes, the acute issue (removal of uric acid) is taken care of, but the destruction of the other parts of regulatory function that disappear when the kidneys stop working cannot be replaced by artificial means.

It's a nasty way to die.

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Keenan
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RE: diabetes

Big problem south of the border too:

"Diabetes has mushroomed as Mexicans' lifestyles have changed dramatically over the last 40 years. Several generations ago diabetes was almost unheard of in Mexico. Now it's the leading cause of death, according to the World Health Organization....Barrientos says current projections show that by 2030, 17 percent of all Mexican adults will have diabetes.

"And that of course opens a lot of questions about sustainability," he says. "Can you really sustain a public health system with 17 percent of your population being diabetic? Especially if you are not prepared to control that diabetes."

Some epidemiologists predict that by 2050, half the adults in the country could suffer from diabetes in their lifetime."


Article focuses on sugary drinks but check the all the carbs in the last photo.
Gotta cut out all those tortilla based meals

http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda....

Bad in China also:

China has the highest number of diabetics in the world, totaling 109 million people in 2015roughly 11 percent of the population. That makes China home to a third of the worlds diabetic population.... the International Diabetes Federation estimates that 13 percent of medical expenditure in China is directly caused by diabetes, with yearly costs estimated to reach $47 billion by 2030

https://qz.com/756585/diabetes-is-chinas....
Aztrader
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Tickerguy
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Oh, you mean the law actually does apply? Fancy that.

Now where's our much-daunted POTUS and AG?

Stuck with their heads up their asses, that's where.

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Leest
Posts: 11
Incept: 2015-11-25

Virginia
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Karl,
I'm still struggling with your 1.4trillion number. I googled MTS, that is the Medicare Transaction Sytem, an automated claims processing system of software created by a contract awarded in 1994. I don't know how long it would take to find your 1.4trillion number in that system, but it's got to be easier or I can't make a case with an average person.
Tickerguy
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MTS = monthly Treasury statement. The government Cash flow statement by category basically.

Sept 30 is fiscal end so that's the full year.

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Workerbee
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* Winter is Coming *
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Karl is 100% correct.
The kidneys do regulate your potassium levels, and if K+ is too high or low you're dead.
Kidneys also produce erythropoietin, a hormone that stimulates bone marrow to produce Red Blood Cells. So kidney failure causes anemia.
Kidneys are one of 2 buffer systems that keep your blood the correct ph. Not too acidic/not too alkaline.
Kidneys also are the primary regulator of your blood pressure. Hormones produced by the kidneys regulate your b/p.
Uremia and fluid overload are what people normally think of with the kidneys.
Bull****.
Kidneys also regulate phosphorus....too much and your parathyroid hormone gets outta ****ing whack.

#1 and #2 cause of kidney failure?
Diabetes and hypertension.

Listen to Karl and go LCHF.
Dialysis SUCKS.

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...that those "who having no appeal on earth to right them, they are left to the only remedy in such cases, an appeal to heaven." ~John Locke
Tickerguy
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Dialysis is just a way to suck $250,000 or more out of your estate before you die. And die you will, unless you get a transplant -- and if you DO get a transplant, and the root cause of the failure isn't fixed FIRST, you die anyway.

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Winding it down.
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