February Jobs Report: Hmmmm...
The Market Ticker - Commentary on The Capital Markets
2017-03-10 07:51 by Karl Denninger
in Employment , 316 references Ignore this thread
February Jobs Report: Hmmmm...
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So the first "Trump" jobs report is now in....

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 235,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in construction, private educational services, manufacturing, health care, and mining.

So who lost?  Retail.  Hmmm.....

Let's have a look inside at the non-adjusted numbers:

Quit sucking off Trump eh?  Yes, the monthly (blue line) change is quite solid.  Where's the red (annualized rate of change) line -- that is, unadjusted but on a same-month basis?  It's down compared to last month.

Now is it bad?  No, it's not.  But it's not a rip-snorting number for February compared against last February.

Second, while the unadjusted number is 1.067 million last February was 1.023 million, statistically identical to what we just printed.

Trump bump?  Bull****!  Who was President in February of 2016?

Incidentally "not in labor force" dropped last February too, just like it did this time, and last year it dropped by a larger gross number than this February.  In other words what you're seeing here is a normal seasonal move, not some "Trump-inspired" confidence.

Argue otherwise and the facts say you're lying -- unless you can somehow magically transport Trump into office for 2016.

Now here's the other interesting chart:

As usually happens (and which I noted had better happen this month) employment:population tipped upward this month.  It usually does.  The last few months had threatened a change in trend, but true to form we got a 4-tick upward move there.  Again, not a "Trump bump" as exactly the same 4 tick upward move happened last year.

On the internals there has been no uptick in workweek, but the trend in average hourly earnings continues, which isn't bad.  But again, this isn't a "Trump" thing, it is continuation of what was seen for the last year or so.  Meh, in other words.

Everyone in the so-called "business media" is trying to attribute this to "animal spirits" in the entrepreneurial area and "Trump."  CNBS was running that crap this morning and and it is a factual and knowing lie.  The figures from last February, when Obama was in office, make this clear and it is only through a willful and intentional refusal to look at last year's figures to compare by which such a statement can be made.

Enjoy whatever "bump" you get in the market from this today; if you are in any way influenced in your behavior by the so-called financial media make damn sure that if it turns out to be crap you hold them accountable for their lies down the road.

/Long kneepad manufacturers for those of you lined up for your turn.

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User Info February Jobs Report: Hmmmm... in forum [Market-Ticker]
Themortgagedude
Posts: 10235
Incept: 2007-12-17

saint louis
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I won't have a clue if he can add jobs until this time next year. I think he can because there is a huge supply of labor available. But he's shown nothing yet that makes me think he could grow the economy at3+ % over an 8 year run. So far it's hyperbole and promises. Show Me The Beef!

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I think its time we ask ourselves if we still know the freedoms that our founding fathers intended for us. Ronald Reagan 1964
Aztrader
Posts: 7730
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
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08:38 ECONX Employment in Selected Industries


EMPLOYMENT BY SELECTED INDUSTRY
Feb-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17
Total nonfarm 237 155 238 235
Total private 221 150 221 227
Goods-producing -7 32 54 95
Mining and logging -18 2 3 9
Construction 23 12 40 58
Manufacturing -12 18 11 28
Durable goods(1) -13 13 7 10
Motor vehicles and parts 1.2 0.9 2.7 -3.5
Nondurable goods 1 5 4 18
Private service-providing 228 118 167 132
Wholesale trade -1.5 1.6 5.9 9.9
Retail trade 48.4 13.3 39.9 -26
Transportation and warehousing 3.2 13.4 -10.2 8.8
Utilities 0.7 0.2 -0.4 -1
Information 10 -6 -3 0
Financial activities 6 22 32 7
Professional and business services 25 36 46 37
Temporary help services -6.7 -17.4 6.5 3.1
Education and health services 74 50 21 62
Health care and social assistance 52 39.2 26.1 32.5
Leisure and hospitality 45 5 24 26
Other services 17 -17 12 8
Government 16 5 17 8
Zerosignal
Posts: 3
Incept: 2016-01-03

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I ran across this happy horses**t right after reading this ticker...

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/artic....

Drudge has it front and center today. Facts don't matter though, I'm just a Trump hater like Karl.
Aztrader
Posts: 7730
Incept: 2007-09-10

Scottsdale, AZ
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This past week was the worst so far this year in sales. I spoke to several business owners and distributors and they felt it too. There is something going on out there and it doesn't match all this news about people out spending money. I just saw this posted today on ZH:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-11....
Steelpiston71
Posts: 5388
Incept: 2007-09-05

Michigan
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I can't confirm, but a few traders in a private forum I'm in that have more european contacts than I, have said the money coming into our markets are from over there. IOW, it is getting 'bad' over there.

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"We have resolution authority under Frank/Dodd... How about we USE IT?" Karl Denninger, 10/07/10 on the Dylan Ratigan Show, MSNBC.
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